HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi...
Transcript of HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi...
HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi Quarterly Report
Friday, April 3, 2014
2 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
IF IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE!
3 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
7.8%
8.4% 8.2% 8.5%
6.3%
5.3%
6.8%
5.9%
5.0% 5.4%
6.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.
Vietnam GDP Growth Rate
Quarterly
“ ANZ has revised its GDP
growth forecast for
Vietnam in 2015 and 2016
upwards, to 6.5% for both
years from the previous
6.2% and 6.4%,
respectively.
”
5.0% 5.3% 6.1%
7.0% 6.0%
Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15
4 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Vietnam among Top Fastest Growing Economies
POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR VIETNAM ECONOMY
Breakdown of components of average annual real GDP growth (2014 – 2050)
Source: PwC Analysis, The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue, February 2015.
5 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
CAPTURING A GREATER SHARE OF GLOBAL FLOWS Vietnam and Myanmar have fast growth middle and affluent class
Source: McKinsey&Company, November 2014.
Source: Boston Consulting Group, December 2013.
ASEAN Economic Community integration plan to create a single market of 600 mil. consumers,
which could create some $280 bil. to $615 bil. in annual economic value by 2030.
1 Vietnam
Business Process Outsourcing Locaion Index Map
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, March 2015.
6 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Vietnam Retail Sales
Vietnam Car Sales
-30%
20%
70%
120%
170%
-
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2M2015
Gro
wth
ra
te (
%)
No. o
f ca
r
No. of cars selling % change YoY
Registration fee reduced from 10% -
20% to 10% - 15% in April.
Import duty on cars from ASEAN countries
will decrease from 50% to 0% by 2018.
Target credit growth
2M: 0.68%
2015: 13-15%
2014: 14%
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, Q1 2015.
Source: Vietnam Automobile Manufacturer’s Association, March 2015.
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
35%
42%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4P
Q1 2
01
5
Gro
wth
Ra
te (
%)
Tu
rno
ve
r (T
rilli
on
do
ng)
Retails and Services Turnover Retails and Services Turnover Growth
Annual Car Sales:
Vietnam: 150,000 units
Thailand: 850,000 units
Indonesia: 1,250,000 units
7 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
FALLING OIL PRICE TRIGGERS TRADE DEFICIT? Dollar, Gold and Oil Chart - Last Ten Years
Compares the movement in the dollar index (major trading partners) with gold and oil prices over the last ten
years. The three series are compared using standard deviation.
Source: Macrotrends, April 1, 2015.
+20% y-o-y vs. EUR
and Yen
US$1,186/oz
-8% y-o-y
US$47.4/barrel
-47% y-o-y
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Jun
-12
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Jun
-13
Se
p-1
3
Dec-1
3
Ma
r-14
Jun
-14
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
18,932
20,703 21,036 21,246
21,458
20,803
Vietnam Interbank Exchange Rate
Vietnam Trade Balance
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3M2015
US
$ b
illio
n
Export
Import
PMI VN-Index
8 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCY IN APAC
Exchange Rate
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2015.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lo
ca
l cu
rre
ncy p
er
US
D
JPY
INR
AUD
MYR
THB
SGD-TWD
PHP
VND
KRW-HKD
NZD
CNY
Vietnam Government Bond Yield Movement
9 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
BANK CUT RATES ON THE BACK OF LOW INFLATION
• Lending rate: Average lending rate for enterprises.
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, State Bank of Vietnam.
Vietnam Interest Rates and Inflation
HSBC Bank has predicted that the central bank would mull another cut of
the open market operations (OMO) rate to beef up domestic demand and
growth thanks to low inflation this year.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Inte
rest ra
te (
%)
Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate
Mortgage rate for the first 12 months:
Jan. 15 Mar. 15
• Techcombank 9.49% 7.99%
• Vietcombank 7.99% 7.5%
• ACB 8.90% 7.5%
10 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
NEW REAL ESTATE FIRMS ON SHARP RISE
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.
* All the above articles were retrieved in March 2015.
Restructuring banking system:
• Some large banks will have to merge
with smaller banks, while the central
bank will directly handle other
lenders.
1. Newly registered Real Estate companies +49% y-o-y;
2. Newly registered Art, Entertainment and Recreation
companies +49% y-o-y.
Novaland to go public end of 2015
19,000 newly registered 4% y-o-y
2,055 firms were resolved 9% y-o-y
16,175 suspended operation 14% y-o-y
4,376 resumed operation 20% y-o-y
11 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
SOUTH KOREA & JAPAN – VIETNAM’S BIGGEST FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTORS
Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment, 3M 2015
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment.
Pelosi, Bipartisan Delegation Conclude
Two-Day Visit to Vietnam 76%
11%
7% 6% Manufacturing
Real estate
Wholesale, retail sale andrepair industries
Others
Vietnam overseas remittance hit US$12
billion in 2014, accounting for 8% of
Vietnam’s GDP, up 13% y-o-y.
12 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
HANOI: IMPROVED GDP GROWTH IN Q1
507
8.25% 10.1%
GDP Growth, Hanoi
• Key sectors of growth: Construction (8.1%) and Service (7.9%)
• Hanoi’s GDP growth (7.6%): higher than VN’s (6.03%) however lower
than HCMC’s (8%).
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Hanoi
Vietnam
Source: Hanoi Statistics Office
13 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
HANOI: LOW CPI DUE TO REDUCED OIL PRICE
• CPI went down during the first two months (-0.17% in Jan and -0.27%
in Feb).
• Fuel retail prices (+10.2%), electricity (+7.5%) and gas prices (+1.17%)
were adjusted up, resulting in the increase in CPI in Mar (+0.38%)
The first February (Tet
holiday) to saw a drop in
CPI
-.500%
.00%
.500%
1.00%
1.500%
2.00%
2.500%
3.00%
3.500%
Janu
ary
Feb
ruary
Ma
rch
April
Ma
y
June
July
Augu
st
Septe
mb
er
Octo
be
r
No
ve
mbe
r
De
ce
mbe
r
Jan
Feb
Ma
rch
April
Ma
y
June
July
Augu
st
Septe
mb
er
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Feb
Ma
rch
2013 2014 2015
CPI Hanoi (m-o-m)
Source: Hanoi Statistics Office
14 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
HANOI: KOREA & JAPAN LEADING FDI CAPITAL
Highlight Q1 2015 Q1 2014
Projects 62 55
New and additional capital
(US$ mil.) $68.66 $38
Key Industries Technology and Assembling,
Real Estate, Retail
Technology and Assembling,
Real Estate, Construction
Sources Korea, Japan Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong
• FDI to Vietnam
dropped by 40.6% (y-o-
y), but FDI to Hanoi
almost doubled.
• FDI invested in Real
Estate maintain its
second position. -
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
US
$ (
mil.
)
FDI Registered Capital Projects
Source: Department of Foreign Investment
15 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
HANOI: INT’L TOURIST ARRIVALS DOWN DESPITE TET HOLIDAY
507
• 437,000 international visitors in
Q1 2015: down by 14.3% y-o-y
• Reason: significant drops in
main markets China (-42.1%),
France (-6.5%), Japan (-6.2%)
• Key growth markets:
27.6% y-o-y
5.9% y-o-y
Int’l tourist arrival to Hanoi (thousand)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Hanoi Statistics Office
16 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Highly appreciated, especially by real estate developers
NEW ROADS IN HANOI
Extended Tran Phu (Ba Dinh District)
Length 450m
Inauguration Feb 2015
Investment capital VND225 billion (US$10.5 million)
Source: Vnexpress.net.
17 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Highly appreciated, especially by real estate developers
NEW ROADS IN HANOI
Extended Tran Phu, Ba Dinh Dist. (450m)
Inauguration: Feb 2015
Investment capital: VND225 bil
Extended Nguyen Van Huyen, CG Dist. (566m)
Inauguration: Feb, 2015
Investment capital: VND 969 bil
Extended Nguyen Van Huyen (Cau Giay District)
Length 566m
Inauguration Feb 2015
Investment capita VND969 billion (US$45 million)
Source: Vnexpress.net.
Hoang Quoc Viet
Ng
uyen
Van
Hu
yen
18 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 Line Ha Dong – Cat Linh Expected completion: 2016
Cat Linh Depot
Active despite Tet but still behind schedule
HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE
Line Nhon – Hanoi Station Expected completion: 2018
19 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Hai Phong and Quang Ninh to attract more FDI
COASTAL CITIES INFRASTRUCTURE
Hai Phong: New airport terminal and new highway are under construction
Hanoi – Hai Phong highway (105km)
Construction is very active even during Tet
Expected completion Q4/2015
Cai Bi Int’l Airport
Ground breaking in January 2015
Capacity 4 million pax per year
Expected completion Q2/2016
LG Electronics moves its TV production from
Thailand to Vietnam, 46 hectares - campus settles in
Trang Due IP, Hai Phong
“Wages are one factor... but the main one is to
ensure quality, as well as logistics,"
20 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Hai Phong and Quang Ninh to attract more FDI
COASTAL CITIES INFRASTRUCTURE
Quang Ninh: New International Airport
21 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
RESIDENTIAL MARKET Recovery continues and high-end apartments come back
16,200 units
10,700 units
Q1 2015 Q1 2014
2,600 units
4,880 units
New launches up 82% y-o-y
Sales doubles y-o-y
1,500 units
Q1 2014
3,080 units
Q1 2015
Prices going up
2.6% y-o-y
1.1% q-o-q
High-end transactions up
37% q-o-q and 15 fold y-o-y
22 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
200720082009201020112012201320142015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Whole year
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE New launches in Q1 2015 up 82% y-o-y
New launches by year (units)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
4,880
New launches by units and projects
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
• Launches remained active before
and right after Tet holidays
• High-end apartments came back
with 603 units launched, up 60% q-
o-q and 30% y-o-y
• 5 high-end projects with new
launch – more than in any single
quarter during 2012 – 2014.
Q1 2015 Q1 2014
2,600 units
4,880 units
18
projects
-
2
4
6
8
10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end
No
. o
f p
roje
cts
No
. o
f u
nit
s
Units Projects
23 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE New launches in the quarter – 4,880 units from 18 projects
1 project
198 units
1 project
50 units
2 projects
270 units
2 projects
275 units
Hoai Duc
2 projects
223units
5 projects
3,297 units
2 projects
337 units
3 projects
229 units
Cau Giay
Dong Da
Ha Dong
Hoang Mai
Tu Liem
24 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Sales momentum remains strong despite a long break
Units sold by year (units)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
• Sales doubled y-o-y
• Unsold stock for high-end
apartments decreasing for 5
consecutive quarters
• Unsold stock for mid-end apartments
start to decrease
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
Nu
mb
er
of
un
its
Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end
Unsold units by year (units)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
No
. o
f to
tal u
nit
s
No
. o
f h
igh
-en
d u
nit
s
High-end Total
Unsold high-end units by quarter (units)
3,080
25 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Secondary prices improving
Changes in resale prices by quarter (%)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
2.6% y-o-y
1.1% q-o-q
• Average resale prices improved both q-o-q and y-o-y
• Luxury and high-end resale prices surged q-o-q at 3.2% and 5.8%
respectively
• Low-end resale prices dropped both q-o-q and y-o-y as a result of massive
stock from new projects in the primary market
-10%
-6%
-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
26 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Developers are increasing prices
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
US
$ p
sm
High-end Mid-end Low-end
• Primary prices for high-end and low-end projects witnessed a slight increase
on average (7% and 5% y-o-y respectively)
• Projects at good locations near CBD saw strongest increase
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
Changes in primary prices by year
27 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Expected strong supply in 2015 ~ 13,000 units
The
West –
43%
Midtown –
8% The
East/
South
East –
28%
• The West still has the most supply in pipeline – but the East and South East
is becoming an attractive cluster
South
West –
21%
28 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Sales expected to remain strong
The resurgence of top-tier projects and
developers
Should we be worried about an over-hyped
market?
How long will this last?
29 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
LANDED PROPERTY Secondary prices – Continued upward trend
Secondary price, market average and Q-o-Q changes
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115
VN
D M
illio
n p
sm
Market average price Q1 2015 Q-o-Q ChangesSource: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015
The market has been warmer for over three quarters.
The market average price slightly increased by 1.3% q-o-q and 1.5% y-o-y The increases are mainly in emerging residential districts such as Ha Dong, Hoai Duc, Hoang Mai, Gia Lam and Tu
Liem (improved infrastructure more convenient to travel to city center, developers of some projects pay much
more attention to facilities and amenities)
30 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
The Manor Central Park The Manor Central Park
Developer Bitexco
Location Hoang Mai District, Hanoi
Total scale 200ha
No. of
units
Semi-detached villas: 59 units
Detached platinum: 18 units
Detached diamond: 3 units
Land area
Semi-detached villas 200-279sqm
Detached platinum: 294 – 463sqm
Detached diamond: 600 – 704sqm
Launch May 2015
Park City – Evelyne Gardens
Developer Perdena Park City Group
Location Le Trong Tan, Ha Dong District
Total scale 4,7ha
No. of
units
Semi-detached: 18 units
Terraced houses: 147 units
Land area Semi-detached villas: 240sqm
Terraced houses: 120sqm
Launch July 2015
FUTURE SUPPLY
Park City – Phase 2
31 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
FUTURE SUPPLY
FLC Garden City
Westpoint
FLC Group
7.895 ha
20 villa land plot
120 terraced
220 – 320 sqm
Q2 2015
LUNG LO 5
4.5 ha
1,746 units
70-100 sqm
April 2015
A project in Hoai Duc Dist.
A Joint Venture
53.8 ha
854 units
100 – 300 – 500 sqm
Q4 2015
The Manor Central Park
80 units Park City
165 units
FLC Garden City
140 units
A project in Hoai Duc Dist.
854 units)
Westpoint
1,746 units
32 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
LANDED PROPERTY
Increased interest in landed properties = number
of transactions to increase.
Some landed projects have restarted (Westpoint,
Thanh Ha), recovering and enhancing customers’
trust and confidence in real estate market.
Sufficient and quality facilities and amenities
together with good management services and
marketing are key to attracting buyers.
Developers making efforts in capturing foreign
buyers’ interest.
33 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Supply declines sharply due to Parkson Landmark’s closure
RETAIL MARKET
Opening/Re-opening Closure
Sentinel Place
Hoan Kiem District
NLA: 700 sm
Re-opened: Jan. 2015
Parkson Landmark 72
Cau Giay District
NLA:29,000 sm
Closed: Jan. 2015
Hoa Binh Green City
Hoang Mai District
NLA: 25,000 sm
Opened: Jan. 2015
34 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Hanoi market
RETAIL PERFORMANCES START TO PICK UP
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
AVERAGE ASKING RENT
(US$/sm/month)
VACANCY RATE
(%)
2015 Q1
2014
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2013
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2012
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2011
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
NON-CBD CBD
0 50 100 150050100150
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Va
ca
nc
y r
ate
(%
)
Ne
t a
bs
orp
tio
n (
sm
)
Net Absorption (sm) Vacancy
35 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Asian retailers are expanding by cooperating with local retailers
INTERNATIONAL RETAILERS EXPANSION
AEON
BJC
BJC’s B's Mart bought 94 Family marts in Vietnam
aim to expand to 300 stores by 2018
Vietnam as a 2nd
most important market in SEA
36 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
TPP, AEC are coming, how do local retailers prepare?
RETAILERS’ RESPONSE TO INT’L INTEGRATION
Local expansion 1
New shopping malls
Local retailer improves
brand identity 2
New brands
VinDS
International style 3
37 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Increasing demand from upper-middle
class lures more brands
RETAIL – VIETNAM NEW ENTRY/EXPANSION
• To add an image, click
on the picture
placeholder icon
• Windows Explorer will
open, find your
required image and
click ‘Insert’.
HANOI 5 HCMC 5
MOST ACTIVE RETAIL
SECTOR IN APAC
38 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
INTERACTION BETWEEN ONLINE AND IN-STORE
25% of respondents expect to shop less often in a
store
45% - 50% of respondents said that they would
shop online more often
Even greater proportion of consumers (69%) aged
from 55 to 64 actually think that they would use
their smartphone/tablet more frequently
Adapt strategies to boost both e-commerce and
offline business activities by
1, Leverage big data
2, Implement Online to Offline (O2O) strategies
3, Create simple and useful apps
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
39 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
RETAIL
Rent of inline stores remains stable in short-term
The future supply pipeline in 2015 and 2016
remains high; those shopping centers’ owners
will have to work very hard if they don’t want to
delay the opening date.
Shopping centres with weak performance will
need to re-merchandise while adding more
anchor tenants. Turnover share scheme become
more popular.
Local retailers will respond properly to their
foreign peers.
40 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
0
10
20
30
40
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
US
$/s
qm
/mth
Grade A Grade B
OFFICE Asking rents - Continued downward trend, smaller decline rate
Q-o-Q
GRADE A GRADE B
Y-o-Y
↓1.2% ↓0.3%
↓4.4% ↓1.5%
Q115
CB
D
Grade A: +0.2%q-o-q
Grade B: +2.6%q-o-q
West +3.2%q-o-q Grade B
Midtown Grade A: -3.8%q-o-q
Grade B: -5%q-o-q
Increasingly
Limited
Supply
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015
Asking rents, Grade A&B
$30.1
$18
Grade A:
+0.2%q-o-q
Grade B:
+2.6%q-o-q
Grade A
-3.8%q-o-q
Grade B
+3.2%q-o-q
Grade A: -0,5%q-o-q
Grade B: -5%q-o-q
41 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
OFFICE Significantly declined vacancy rate
Net Absorption & Vacancy Rate, Grade A & B
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
-10,000
,0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2013 2014 2015
Ne
t a
bso
rptio
n (
sqm
)
Net Absorption - Grade A Net Absorption - Grade B
Vavancy Rate - Grade A Vacancy Rate - Grade B
VAC Grade A
Grade B
- 6.1 ppts q-o-q
- 6.2 ppts q-o-q
Reasonable rental rates
No new supply
Enterprises’ expansion
42 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Tenants Target
OFFICE
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015
Tenants’ Origin
Q-o-Q Local expansion
Y-o-Y Foreign establishment
Telecommunication
Tourism
Banks
Technology/Electronics
Pharmaceutical
Manufacturing
Tenant Preference
CBD still drew much attention from
tenants thanks to its favorable
location. However, its high rental rate
made them hesitate to make a deal.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015
36%
36%
43%
32%
30%
25%
32%
34%
32%
0% 50% 100%
14Q1
14Q4
15Q1
CBD Midtown West
60%
43%
52%
40%
57%
48%
0% 50% 100%Local Foreign
43 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Future Supply
OFFICE
Expected significant launch in 2015
HUD TOWER
Cau Giay Dist.
GFA: 56,000 sqm
HANDICO TOWER
South Tu Liem Dist.
GFA: 29,040 sqm
DIAMOND FLOWER
TOWER
Cau Giay Dist.
GFA: 20,000 sqm
789 TOWER
Cau Giay Dist.
GFA: 39,419 sqm
GOLD VIEW
Ba Dinh Dist.
GFA: 39,348 sqm
44 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
OFFICE
Rental rates of Grade A buildings,
especially in the West and Midtown are
increasingly reasonable
Improved economic conditions (expected
positive FDI and GDP, participation into
TPP) will stimulate existing enterprises’
performance and attract new investment
continued positive net absorption
Increasing pressure for the West when new
supply in this area will significantly increase
to year end (176,000sqm)
Rental rates and quality, management
services are key factors in holding and
attracting tenants
Outlook – a positive year for Grade A buildings
+ =
Q2 Q3 Q4
45 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
SECTOR SEGMENT HANOI/ NORTH HCMC/ SOUTH
RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION
OFFICE New buildings
Mature buildings
RETAIL CBD
Non-CBD
CONDOMINIUM
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
HOTELS Inner-city hotels
Beach hotels/resorts
SERVICED APT. Grade A
INDUSTRIAL Land
Factory/ warehouse
2015 OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q412015.
46 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
SECTOR OUTLOOK
CONDOMINIUM
Sales expected to remain strong.
The resurgence of top-tier projects and developers
Should we be worried about an over-hyped market?
OFFICE
Economic recovery and expansion of international companies will positively
raise office market in all key indicators. Rent is a deciding factor rather than
location.
Green office buildings save energy, enhance workforce health and improve
quality of tenants.
RETAIL
Rent of inline stores starts to increase
Shopping centres with weak performance will need to re-merchandise while
adding more anchor tenants. Turnover share scheme become more
popular.
HOSPITALITY
The market continues to be dominated by mid-scale segment.
Second home market is expected to revive not only in established areas like
Da Nang, Nha Trang but also in emerging destinations like Phu Quoc and
Ha Long, especially when the recent policy allowing foreigners to purchase
houses in Vietnam takes effect in July 2015
2015 OUTLOOK
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