HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi...

47
HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi Quarterly Report Friday, April 3, 2014

Transcript of HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi...

Page 1: HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi Quarterly Report Friday, April 3, 2014. ... Vietnam in 2015 and 2016 upwards, to

HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi Quarterly Report

Friday, April 3, 2014

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2 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

IF IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE!

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3 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

7.8%

8.4% 8.2% 8.5%

6.3%

5.3%

6.8%

5.9%

5.0% 5.4%

6.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.

Vietnam GDP Growth Rate

Quarterly

“ ANZ has revised its GDP

growth forecast for

Vietnam in 2015 and 2016

upwards, to 6.5% for both

years from the previous

6.2% and 6.4%,

respectively.

5.0% 5.3% 6.1%

7.0% 6.0%

Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15

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4 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Vietnam among Top Fastest Growing Economies

POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR VIETNAM ECONOMY

Breakdown of components of average annual real GDP growth (2014 – 2050)

Source: PwC Analysis, The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue, February 2015.

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5 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

CAPTURING A GREATER SHARE OF GLOBAL FLOWS Vietnam and Myanmar have fast growth middle and affluent class

Source: McKinsey&Company, November 2014.

Source: Boston Consulting Group, December 2013.

ASEAN Economic Community integration plan to create a single market of 600 mil. consumers,

which could create some $280 bil. to $615 bil. in annual economic value by 2030.

1 Vietnam

Business Process Outsourcing Locaion Index Map

Source: Cushman & Wakefield, March 2015.

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6 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Vietnam Retail Sales

Vietnam Car Sales

-30%

20%

70%

120%

170%

-

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2M2015

Gro

wth

ra

te (

%)

No. o

f ca

r

No. of cars selling % change YoY

Registration fee reduced from 10% -

20% to 10% - 15% in April.

Import duty on cars from ASEAN countries

will decrease from 50% to 0% by 2018.

Target credit growth

2M: 0.68%

2015: 13-15%

2014: 14%

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, Q1 2015.

Source: Vietnam Automobile Manufacturer’s Association, March 2015.

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

35%

42%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4P

Q1 2

01

5

Gro

wth

Ra

te (

%)

Tu

rno

ve

r (T

rilli

on

do

ng)

Retails and Services Turnover Retails and Services Turnover Growth

Annual Car Sales:

Vietnam: 150,000 units

Thailand: 850,000 units

Indonesia: 1,250,000 units

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7 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

FALLING OIL PRICE TRIGGERS TRADE DEFICIT? Dollar, Gold and Oil Chart - Last Ten Years

Compares the movement in the dollar index (major trading partners) with gold and oil prices over the last ten

years. The three series are compared using standard deviation.

Source: Macrotrends, April 1, 2015.

+20% y-o-y vs. EUR

and Yen

US$1,186/oz

-8% y-o-y

US$47.4/barrel

-47% y-o-y

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

18,932

20,703 21,036 21,246

21,458

20,803

Vietnam Interbank Exchange Rate

Vietnam Trade Balance

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3M2015

US

$ b

illio

n

Export

Import

PMI VN-Index

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8 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCY IN APAC

Exchange Rate

Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2015.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lo

ca

l cu

rre

ncy p

er

US

D

JPY

INR

AUD

MYR

THB

SGD-TWD

PHP

VND

KRW-HKD

NZD

CNY

Vietnam Government Bond Yield Movement

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9 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

BANK CUT RATES ON THE BACK OF LOW INFLATION

• Lending rate: Average lending rate for enterprises.

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, State Bank of Vietnam.

Vietnam Interest Rates and Inflation

HSBC Bank has predicted that the central bank would mull another cut of

the open market operations (OMO) rate to beef up domestic demand and

growth thanks to low inflation this year.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Inte

rest ra

te (

%)

Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate

Mortgage rate for the first 12 months:

Jan. 15 Mar. 15

• Techcombank 9.49% 7.99%

• Vietcombank 7.99% 7.5%

• ACB 8.90% 7.5%

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10 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

NEW REAL ESTATE FIRMS ON SHARP RISE

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.

* All the above articles were retrieved in March 2015.

Restructuring banking system:

• Some large banks will have to merge

with smaller banks, while the central

bank will directly handle other

lenders.

1. Newly registered Real Estate companies +49% y-o-y;

2. Newly registered Art, Entertainment and Recreation

companies +49% y-o-y.

Novaland to go public end of 2015

19,000 newly registered 4% y-o-y

2,055 firms were resolved 9% y-o-y

16,175 suspended operation 14% y-o-y

4,376 resumed operation 20% y-o-y

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11 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

SOUTH KOREA & JAPAN – VIETNAM’S BIGGEST FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTORS

Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment, 3M 2015

Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment.

Pelosi, Bipartisan Delegation Conclude

Two-Day Visit to Vietnam 76%

11%

7% 6% Manufacturing

Real estate

Wholesale, retail sale andrepair industries

Others

Vietnam overseas remittance hit US$12

billion in 2014, accounting for 8% of

Vietnam’s GDP, up 13% y-o-y.

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12 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

HANOI: IMPROVED GDP GROWTH IN Q1

507

8.25% 10.1%

GDP Growth, Hanoi

• Key sectors of growth: Construction (8.1%) and Service (7.9%)

• Hanoi’s GDP growth (7.6%): higher than VN’s (6.03%) however lower

than HCMC’s (8%).

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

Hanoi

Vietnam

Source: Hanoi Statistics Office

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13 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

HANOI: LOW CPI DUE TO REDUCED OIL PRICE

• CPI went down during the first two months (-0.17% in Jan and -0.27%

in Feb).

• Fuel retail prices (+10.2%), electricity (+7.5%) and gas prices (+1.17%)

were adjusted up, resulting in the increase in CPI in Mar (+0.38%)

The first February (Tet

holiday) to saw a drop in

CPI

-.500%

.00%

.500%

1.00%

1.500%

2.00%

2.500%

3.00%

3.500%

Janu

ary

Feb

ruary

Ma

rch

April

Ma

y

June

July

Augu

st

Septe

mb

er

Octo

be

r

No

ve

mbe

r

De

ce

mbe

r

Jan

Feb

Ma

rch

April

Ma

y

June

July

Augu

st

Septe

mb

er

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Ma

rch

2013 2014 2015

CPI Hanoi (m-o-m)

Source: Hanoi Statistics Office

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14 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

HANOI: KOREA & JAPAN LEADING FDI CAPITAL

Highlight Q1 2015 Q1 2014

Projects 62 55

New and additional capital

(US$ mil.) $68.66 $38

Key Industries Technology and Assembling,

Real Estate, Retail

Technology and Assembling,

Real Estate, Construction

Sources Korea, Japan Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong

• FDI to Vietnam

dropped by 40.6% (y-o-

y), but FDI to Hanoi

almost doubled.

• FDI invested in Real

Estate maintain its

second position. -

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015

US

$ (

mil.

)

FDI Registered Capital Projects

Source: Department of Foreign Investment

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15 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

HANOI: INT’L TOURIST ARRIVALS DOWN DESPITE TET HOLIDAY

507

• 437,000 international visitors in

Q1 2015: down by 14.3% y-o-y

• Reason: significant drops in

main markets China (-42.1%),

France (-6.5%), Japan (-6.2%)

• Key growth markets:

27.6% y-o-y

5.9% y-o-y

Int’l tourist arrival to Hanoi (thousand)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Hanoi Statistics Office

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16 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Highly appreciated, especially by real estate developers

NEW ROADS IN HANOI

Extended Tran Phu (Ba Dinh District)

Length 450m

Inauguration Feb 2015

Investment capital VND225 billion (US$10.5 million)

Source: Vnexpress.net.

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17 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Highly appreciated, especially by real estate developers

NEW ROADS IN HANOI

Extended Tran Phu, Ba Dinh Dist. (450m)

Inauguration: Feb 2015

Investment capital: VND225 bil

Extended Nguyen Van Huyen, CG Dist. (566m)

Inauguration: Feb, 2015

Investment capital: VND 969 bil

Extended Nguyen Van Huyen (Cau Giay District)

Length 566m

Inauguration Feb 2015

Investment capita VND969 billion (US$45 million)

Source: Vnexpress.net.

Hoang Quoc Viet

Ng

uyen

Van

Hu

yen

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18 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 Line Ha Dong – Cat Linh Expected completion: 2016

Cat Linh Depot

Active despite Tet but still behind schedule

HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE

Line Nhon – Hanoi Station Expected completion: 2018

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19 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Hai Phong and Quang Ninh to attract more FDI

COASTAL CITIES INFRASTRUCTURE

Hai Phong: New airport terminal and new highway are under construction

Hanoi – Hai Phong highway (105km)

Construction is very active even during Tet

Expected completion Q4/2015

Cai Bi Int’l Airport

Ground breaking in January 2015

Capacity 4 million pax per year

Expected completion Q2/2016

LG Electronics moves its TV production from

Thailand to Vietnam, 46 hectares - campus settles in

Trang Due IP, Hai Phong

“Wages are one factor... but the main one is to

ensure quality, as well as logistics,"

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20 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Hai Phong and Quang Ninh to attract more FDI

COASTAL CITIES INFRASTRUCTURE

Quang Ninh: New International Airport

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21 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

RESIDENTIAL MARKET Recovery continues and high-end apartments come back

16,200 units

10,700 units

Q1 2015 Q1 2014

2,600 units

4,880 units

New launches up 82% y-o-y

Sales doubles y-o-y

1,500 units

Q1 2014

3,080 units

Q1 2015

Prices going up

2.6% y-o-y

1.1% q-o-q

High-end transactions up

37% q-o-q and 15 fold y-o-y

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22 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

200720082009201020112012201320142015

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Whole year

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE New launches in Q1 2015 up 82% y-o-y

New launches by year (units)

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

4,880

New launches by units and projects

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

• Launches remained active before

and right after Tet holidays

• High-end apartments came back

with 603 units launched, up 60% q-

o-q and 30% y-o-y

• 5 high-end projects with new

launch – more than in any single

quarter during 2012 – 2014.

Q1 2015 Q1 2014

2,600 units

4,880 units

18

projects

-

2

4

6

8

10

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end

No

. o

f p

roje

cts

No

. o

f u

nit

s

Units Projects

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23 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE New launches in the quarter – 4,880 units from 18 projects

1 project

198 units

1 project

50 units

2 projects

270 units

2 projects

275 units

Hoai Duc

2 projects

223units

5 projects

3,297 units

2 projects

337 units

3 projects

229 units

Cau Giay

Dong Da

Ha Dong

Hoang Mai

Tu Liem

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24 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Sales momentum remains strong despite a long break

Units sold by year (units)

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

• Sales doubled y-o-y

• Unsold stock for high-end

apartments decreasing for 5

consecutive quarters

• Unsold stock for mid-end apartments

start to decrease

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

Nu

mb

er

of

un

its

Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end

Unsold units by year (units)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

No

. o

f to

tal u

nit

s

No

. o

f h

igh

-en

d u

nit

s

High-end Total

Unsold high-end units by quarter (units)

3,080

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25 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Secondary prices improving

Changes in resale prices by quarter (%)

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

2.6% y-o-y

1.1% q-o-q

• Average resale prices improved both q-o-q and y-o-y

• Luxury and high-end resale prices surged q-o-q at 3.2% and 5.8%

respectively

• Low-end resale prices dropped both q-o-q and y-o-y as a result of massive

stock from new projects in the primary market

-10%

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

14%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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26 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Developers are increasing prices

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD

US

$ p

sm

High-end Mid-end Low-end

• Primary prices for high-end and low-end projects witnessed a slight increase

on average (7% and 5% y-o-y respectively)

• Projects at good locations near CBD saw strongest increase

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

Changes in primary prices by year

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27 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Expected strong supply in 2015 ~ 13,000 units

The

West –

43%

Midtown –

8% The

East/

South

East –

28%

• The West still has the most supply in pipeline – but the East and South East

is becoming an attractive cluster

South

West –

21%

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28 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Outlook

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE

Sales expected to remain strong

The resurgence of top-tier projects and

developers

Should we be worried about an over-hyped

market?

How long will this last?

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29 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

LANDED PROPERTY Secondary prices – Continued upward trend

Secondary price, market average and Q-o-Q changes

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115

VN

D M

illio

n p

sm

Market average price Q1 2015 Q-o-Q ChangesSource: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015

The market has been warmer for over three quarters.

The market average price slightly increased by 1.3% q-o-q and 1.5% y-o-y The increases are mainly in emerging residential districts such as Ha Dong, Hoai Duc, Hoang Mai, Gia Lam and Tu

Liem (improved infrastructure more convenient to travel to city center, developers of some projects pay much

more attention to facilities and amenities)

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30 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

The Manor Central Park The Manor Central Park

Developer Bitexco

Location Hoang Mai District, Hanoi

Total scale 200ha

No. of

units

Semi-detached villas: 59 units

Detached platinum: 18 units

Detached diamond: 3 units

Land area

Semi-detached villas 200-279sqm

Detached platinum: 294 – 463sqm

Detached diamond: 600 – 704sqm

Launch May 2015

Park City – Evelyne Gardens

Developer Perdena Park City Group

Location Le Trong Tan, Ha Dong District

Total scale 4,7ha

No. of

units

Semi-detached: 18 units

Terraced houses: 147 units

Land area Semi-detached villas: 240sqm

Terraced houses: 120sqm

Launch July 2015

FUTURE SUPPLY

Park City – Phase 2

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31 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

FUTURE SUPPLY

FLC Garden City

Westpoint

FLC Group

7.895 ha

20 villa land plot

120 terraced

220 – 320 sqm

Q2 2015

LUNG LO 5

4.5 ha

1,746 units

70-100 sqm

April 2015

A project in Hoai Duc Dist.

A Joint Venture

53.8 ha

854 units

100 – 300 – 500 sqm

Q4 2015

The Manor Central Park

80 units Park City

165 units

FLC Garden City

140 units

A project in Hoai Duc Dist.

854 units)

Westpoint

1,746 units

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32 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Outlook

LANDED PROPERTY

Increased interest in landed properties = number

of transactions to increase.

Some landed projects have restarted (Westpoint,

Thanh Ha), recovering and enhancing customers’

trust and confidence in real estate market.

Sufficient and quality facilities and amenities

together with good management services and

marketing are key to attracting buyers.

Developers making efforts in capturing foreign

buyers’ interest.

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33 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Supply declines sharply due to Parkson Landmark’s closure

RETAIL MARKET

Opening/Re-opening Closure

Sentinel Place

Hoan Kiem District

NLA: 700 sm

Re-opened: Jan. 2015

Parkson Landmark 72

Cau Giay District

NLA:29,000 sm

Closed: Jan. 2015

Hoa Binh Green City

Hoang Mai District

NLA: 25,000 sm

Opened: Jan. 2015

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34 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Hanoi market

RETAIL PERFORMANCES START TO PICK UP

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

AVERAGE ASKING RENT

(US$/sm/month)

VACANCY RATE

(%)

2015 Q1

2014

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2013

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2012

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2011

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

NON-CBD CBD

0 50 100 150050100150

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Va

ca

nc

y r

ate

(%

)

Ne

t a

bs

orp

tio

n (

sm

)

Net Absorption (sm) Vacancy

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35 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Asian retailers are expanding by cooperating with local retailers

INTERNATIONAL RETAILERS EXPANSION

AEON

BJC

BJC’s B's Mart bought 94 Family marts in Vietnam

aim to expand to 300 stores by 2018

Vietnam as a 2nd

most important market in SEA

Page 36: HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2015 From CBRE Hanoi Quarterly Report Friday, April 3, 2014. ... Vietnam in 2015 and 2016 upwards, to

36 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

TPP, AEC are coming, how do local retailers prepare?

RETAILERS’ RESPONSE TO INT’L INTEGRATION

Local expansion 1

New shopping malls

Local retailer improves

brand identity 2

New brands

VinDS

International style 3

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37 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Increasing demand from upper-middle

class lures more brands

RETAIL – VIETNAM NEW ENTRY/EXPANSION

• To add an image, click

on the picture

placeholder icon

• Windows Explorer will

open, find your

required image and

click ‘Insert’.

HANOI 5 HCMC 5

MOST ACTIVE RETAIL

SECTOR IN APAC

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38 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

INTERACTION BETWEEN ONLINE AND IN-STORE

25% of respondents expect to shop less often in a

store

45% - 50% of respondents said that they would

shop online more often

Even greater proportion of consumers (69%) aged

from 55 to 64 actually think that they would use

their smartphone/tablet more frequently

Adapt strategies to boost both e-commerce and

offline business activities by

1, Leverage big data

2, Implement Online to Offline (O2O) strategies

3, Create simple and useful apps

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

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39 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Outlook

RETAIL

Rent of inline stores remains stable in short-term

The future supply pipeline in 2015 and 2016

remains high; those shopping centers’ owners

will have to work very hard if they don’t want to

delay the opening date.

Shopping centres with weak performance will

need to re-merchandise while adding more

anchor tenants. Turnover share scheme become

more popular.

Local retailers will respond properly to their

foreign peers.

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40 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

0

10

20

30

40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015

US

$/s

qm

/mth

Grade A Grade B

OFFICE Asking rents - Continued downward trend, smaller decline rate

Q-o-Q

GRADE A GRADE B

Y-o-Y

↓1.2% ↓0.3%

↓4.4% ↓1.5%

Q115

CB

D

Grade A: +0.2%q-o-q

Grade B: +2.6%q-o-q

West +3.2%q-o-q Grade B

Midtown Grade A: -3.8%q-o-q

Grade B: -5%q-o-q

Increasingly

Limited

Supply

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015

Asking rents, Grade A&B

$30.1

$18

Grade A:

+0.2%q-o-q

Grade B:

+2.6%q-o-q

Grade A

-3.8%q-o-q

Grade B

+3.2%q-o-q

Grade A: -0,5%q-o-q

Grade B: -5%q-o-q

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41 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

OFFICE Significantly declined vacancy rate

Net Absorption & Vacancy Rate, Grade A & B

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

-10,000

,0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 2015

Ne

t a

bso

rptio

n (

sqm

)

Net Absorption - Grade A Net Absorption - Grade B

Vavancy Rate - Grade A Vacancy Rate - Grade B

VAC Grade A

Grade B

- 6.1 ppts q-o-q

- 6.2 ppts q-o-q

Reasonable rental rates

No new supply

Enterprises’ expansion

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42 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Tenants Target

OFFICE

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015

Tenants’ Origin

Q-o-Q Local expansion

Y-o-Y Foreign establishment

Telecommunication

Tourism

Banks

Technology/Electronics

Pharmaceutical

Manufacturing

Tenant Preference

CBD still drew much attention from

tenants thanks to its favorable

location. However, its high rental rate

made them hesitate to make a deal.

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015

36%

36%

43%

32%

30%

25%

32%

34%

32%

0% 50% 100%

14Q1

14Q4

15Q1

CBD Midtown West

60%

43%

52%

40%

57%

48%

0% 50% 100%Local Foreign

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43 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Future Supply

OFFICE

Expected significant launch in 2015

HUD TOWER

Cau Giay Dist.

GFA: 56,000 sqm

HANDICO TOWER

South Tu Liem Dist.

GFA: 29,040 sqm

DIAMOND FLOWER

TOWER

Cau Giay Dist.

GFA: 20,000 sqm

789 TOWER

Cau Giay Dist.

GFA: 39,419 sqm

GOLD VIEW

Ba Dinh Dist.

GFA: 39,348 sqm

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44 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

OFFICE

Rental rates of Grade A buildings,

especially in the West and Midtown are

increasingly reasonable

Improved economic conditions (expected

positive FDI and GDP, participation into

TPP) will stimulate existing enterprises’

performance and attract new investment

continued positive net absorption

Increasing pressure for the West when new

supply in this area will significantly increase

to year end (176,000sqm)

Rental rates and quality, management

services are key factors in holding and

attracting tenants

Outlook – a positive year for Grade A buildings

+ =

Q2 Q3 Q4

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45 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

SECTOR SEGMENT HANOI/ NORTH HCMC/ SOUTH

RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION

OFFICE New buildings

Mature buildings

RETAIL CBD

Non-CBD

CONDOMINIUM

High-end

Mid-end

Affordable

HOTELS Inner-city hotels

Beach hotels/resorts

SERVICED APT. Grade A

INDUSTRIAL Land

Factory/ warehouse

2015 OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q412015.

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46 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

SECTOR OUTLOOK

CONDOMINIUM

Sales expected to remain strong.

The resurgence of top-tier projects and developers

Should we be worried about an over-hyped market?

OFFICE

Economic recovery and expansion of international companies will positively

raise office market in all key indicators. Rent is a deciding factor rather than

location.

Green office buildings save energy, enhance workforce health and improve

quality of tenants.

RETAIL

Rent of inline stores starts to increase

Shopping centres with weak performance will need to re-merchandise while

adding more anchor tenants. Turnover share scheme become more

popular.

HOSPITALITY

The market continues to be dominated by mid-scale segment.

Second home market is expected to revive not only in established areas like

Da Nang, Nha Trang but also in emerging destinations like Phu Quoc and

Ha Long, especially when the recent policy allowing foreigners to purchase

houses in Vietnam takes effect in July 2015

2015 OUTLOOK

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All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

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Email: [email protected]