UV LED Market and Industry Trends - LED · PDF fileUV LED Market and Industry Trends Pars...
33
From Technologies to Market UV LED Market and Industry Trends Pars MUKISH Business Unit Manager Sapphire, LED / OLED and Display / Lighting Technologies Yole Développement LED Taiwan - IR+UV Summit -April 14 th 2016
Transcript of UV LED Market and Industry Trends - LED · PDF fileUV LED Market and Industry Trends Pars...
From Technologies to Market
UV LED Market and Industry Trends
Pars MUKISH
Business Unit Manager
Sapphire, LED / OLED and Display / Lighting Technologies
Yole Développement
LED Taiwan - IR+UV Summit - April 14th 2016
2
• Presentation of Yole Développement
• Introduction
• UV LED MarketTrends
• UV LED IndustryTrends• Analysis - UV LED Device Level
• Analysis - UV LED System Level
• Conclusion
AGENDA
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
3
Presentation of Yole Développement
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
4
MEMS &
Sensors
LED / OLED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
PackagingPV
Power
Electronics
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
5
Consulting and Analysis
• Market data & research, marketing analysis
• Technology analysis
• Strategy consulting
• Reverse engineering & costing
• Patent analysis
www.yole.fr
Reports
• Market & Technology reports
• Patent Investigation and patent infringement riskanalysis
• Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis
• Cost Simulation Tool
www.i-Micronews.com/reports
Financial services
• M&A (buying and selling)
• Due diligence
• Fundraising
• Maturation of companies
• IP portfolio management & optimization
www.yolefinance.com
Media
• i-Micronews.com website
• @Micronews e-newsletter
• Technology magazines
• Communication & webcast services
• Events
www.i-Micronews.com
4 BUSINESS MODELS
6
A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com
Fundraising
Maturation of companies
IP portfolio management & optimization
www.bmorpho.com
Manufacturing costs analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr
IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
8
We are active all over the value chain: from substrates to systems! And we interact with industrial / R&D players from each level!
Yole is active all over the value chain (Case of LED and Sapphire activities)
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Substrate
SiC / Sapphire / Silicon /
Bulk GaN / Engineered
substrates
LED epi-
wafer
Mesa LED, Flip Chip LED,
Vertical LED structures
LED dies-
on-wafer
LED dies
Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy• Nucleation layer
• n-type layer
• Active layers (MQW)
• p-type layer
Back-End Level 0 - Packaging• Substrate separation & Bonding
• Die singulation
• Testing & Binning
LED systems and applications
Front-end Level 1 - Device Making• Inspection
• Masking / Lithography
• Etching
• Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors
Back-End level 1 - Packaging• Die Attach & Interconnections
• Phosphors
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Testing & Binning
Packaged LEDs
Module Packaging• Substrates (PCB)
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Heatsink
• Testing & Binning
LED modules
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
9
A collection of more than 15 reports on Sapphire, LED, OLED, Display and Lighting.
Report collection
FOCUS ON SAPPHIRE, LED / OLED AND DISPLAY / LIGHTING ACTIVITIES
Already published -Yole Développement:
• Status of the LED Industry
• LED in Road and Street Lighting
• LED Front End Manufacturing Trends
• LED Front End Equipment Market trends
• GaN-on-Si Technology and Market
• Phosphors & QDs - Market and Technology Landscape
• LED Module Technologies
• Phosphors & QDs - IP Landscape
From System Plus Consulting:
• LED CoSim+ & Reverse Engineering / Reverse Costing reports
2016 Publication -To be published -Yole Développement :
• OLED For Lighting (Q1 - 2016)
• Automotive Lighting (Q2 - 2016)
• UV LED (Q2 - 2016)
• Sapphire (Q2 / Q3 - 2016)
• LED Packaging (Q3 - 2016)
• MicroDisplays and MicroLEDs (Q3 - 2016)
Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include:
• Technology trends and evolution: costs, barriers, roadmaps (…).
• Supply & value chain analysis: business models, relationships, value flows (…).
• In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers: challenges, inflection points (…).
• Market data ($, units, wafer starts…)
11
For each type of UV, there are specific applications.
Split by Wavelength
UV LAMP APPLICATIONS
UVC
UV curing
Analytical instruments
UV sources
UVA
Photocatalytic purification
Counterfeit detection
UVB
Medical phototherapy
Tanning
Water AirSurface
Emerging / New applications
Disinfection / Purification
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
12
Each application can be defined as function of optical power output and wavelength required.
As a function of optical power output and wavelength
UV LAMP APPLICATIONS
UVAUVBUVC
100
0.01
0.1
1
10
Required optical
power output
(log W/cm²)
280 400365315
UV curing
Analytical Instrument
Analytical Instrument
Counterfeit
Detection
Medical
Phototherapy
200
Tanning
Wavelength
(nm)
Photocatalytic
Purification
Disinfection
/ Purification
(Water / Air
/ Surface)
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
13
UV LEDs offer many advantages toward UV lamps.
Comparison table
FROM UV LAMP TO UV LED
UV LEDUV Lamps
UVB / UVC UVA
Device size Max. 1 cm² Tubes of more than 1m
Toxicity No toxic element Toxic Mercury
Spectrum Single peak with customizable wavelength Specific rays defined by the
technology
Heat management Back-side heat extraction neededHomogeneous heat
distribution
Lifetime
Highly dependant on
wavelength: 1,000 - 10,000
hours today
20,000 hours expected
10,000 - 50,000 hours
Target is 100,000 hours
1,000 - 20,000 hours
2,000 hours on average
Warm-up time Immediate Up to 10 minutes
Wall-plug efficiency
(Pout/Pin in%)Few % today Up to ~35% From 10% - 45%
Robustness Shock-resistant Quartz breakable construction
Design Can be perfectly adjusted to the system Straight and long
Cost of ownershipWill be low thanks to higher lifetime and cost savings on power
supply and housingsHigh, due to poor lifetime
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
15
Most of the UVA applications have already been marketed by UV LEDs whereas UVB / UVC applications are still emerging.
Timeline / Time-to-market
UV LED TRADITIONAL APPLICATIONS ROADMAP
UVC
UVB
UVA
Timeline / Time-to-market
2000’s 2010 20122011 2013 2014
Medical Phototherapy
2015 2016
UV Curing
Banknote Detection
Photocatalytic Air Purification
Photocatalytic Water Purification
Air Disinfection
Analytical Instruments
Water Disinfection
20192017 2018
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
16
UV LED will continue to make their way into UV curing applications.
An Increased Presence of UV LEDs
UV LIGHT SOURCE BUSINESS COMPARISON
Preliminary Remark: Comparison pertains ONLY to UV LED applications (meaning water & air disinfection / purification, analyticalinstruments, medical phototherapy, photocatalytic purification, counterfeit detection, UV curing, and R&D).
• UV LED will replace mercury lamps in current applications, but also create new applicationsinaccessible to UV lamps.
UV LED Application Relative Market Shares
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
17
We’re just scratching the surface of what UV LED can bring. Several new applications could be developed based on specific properties of UV LEDs.
Timeline / Time-to-Market
UV LED NEW APPLICATIONS ROADMAP (NON EXHAUSTIVE)
• Currently, UV LED is seen as a replacement technology for UV lamps in traditional applications. But the fact is thatUV LED offers several advantages and specific characteristics over traditional technologies (compactness, lifetime,etc.) which will enable development of new applications, especially portable ones, once the supply chain isconsolidated and price decreases.
• New potential applications such as counterfeit detector integration in smartphones (UVA) and disinfection systemintegration in refrigerators (UVC) have been studied in order to assess their credibility / viability. And some arealready commercialized.
UVC
UVB
UVA
Timeline/Time-to-Market
2012 2013 20152014 2016 20182017
Cell Phone Disinfection System
Plant Growth
Medical Phototherapy - Vitamin D Synthesis
General Lighting
Nail Gel Curing
Biomedical Devices
Edge Bead Removal
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
18
• LG has already started the commercialization of white goods implementing UVC LEDs.
• Same for SETi and its cell phone disinfection system.
Examples of Commercial Products
UV LED NEW APPLICATIONS ROADMAP (NON EXHAUSTIVE)
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
19
UV LED market that represented only ~$20M in 2008 grew to more than $100M in 2015, and should reach nearly $600M by 2019.
Market Forecast
UV LED MARKET
UV LED Market Size (Chip & Package) in $M
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
21
Analysis - UV LED Device Level
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
22
New relays of growth are required for LED manufacturers to survive!
Status of the LED Industry
INTRODUCTION
• General Lighting is no more a BLUE OCEAN due to strong price pressure and intensecompetition.
• As a consequence, most of the players of the industry are looking at new relay of growthand with different strategies:
• Vertical integration -What is beyond visible LED chip and package?
Toward LED module and system levels.
• Product diversification - What is beyond visible LED?
Toward IR LED and UV LED devices.
• Activity diversification -What is beyond LED?
Toward Power Electronic applications (…).
• Already looking at what is beyond visible LED (UV LED, IR LED…) but also starting to look atwhat is beyond LED (Power Electronics…).
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
23
Since 2008, the industry has grown by a factor superior to x6.
Timeline
UV LED INDUSTRY
Timeline - UV LED Industry Growth
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
24
Analysis of (some) Top Visible LED Manufacturers
UV LED INDUSTRY
TopVisible LED Players Country UV LED Involvement
Nichia Japan Already UV LED manufacturer
Samsung LED South Korea We think that Samsung could enter the UV LED business
Osram OS Germany We think that Samsung could enter the UV LED business
LG Innotek South Korea LG Innotek has started manufacturing UV LEDs in 2013
Seoul Semiconductor /
ViosysSouth Korea Already UV LED manufacturer
CREE USA CREE don’t sell UV LED products and seems not to be willing to enter this business
Lumileds USA Lumileds has started manufacturing UV LEDs in 2013
Toyoda Gosei Japan Toyoda Gosei has started to manufacture UV LEDs in 2015
Sharp Japan We don’t think that Sharp could enter the UV LED business
Everlight Taiwan Everlight have started to manufacture UV LEDs in 2015
Sanan China Sanan seems to have already started to manufacture UV LEDs
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
25
• In the past years (2012 to 2015), more than 30 companies have entered the UVA LED device business (UVLED chip and / or package).And most of them were coming from the visible LED industry.
• Main reason is that, in 2011 / 2012, the visible LED lighting industry has suffered from the “LED TV crisis” dueto softer than expected LED TV market. At the same moment, several new players (especially from Taiwan andChina) have entered the business.
• As a consequence, a situation of overcapacity has occurred and revenues were much lower due to strong ASP pressure.As the UV LED market represented a business for which margins were still high, several companies have thereforedecided to develop / manufacture such device.
Focus on UVA LED Industry (1/2)
UV LED INDUSTRY
1st cycle
2nd
cycle
3rd cycle
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
26
• In parallel, the overall UVA LED business has strongly grown since 2012 (mostly driven by UV curing applications),making this market big enough to interest large players from the visible LED industry.
• Last but not least, UVA LED technology is close in terms of approach to visible LED manufacturing whicheasier transition from visible LED market to UV LED market.
Focus on UVA LED Industry (2/2)
UV LED INDUSTRY
UV LED Market Size (chip & package)
Comparison of main categories of applications (curing vs. disinfection vs. others)
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
27
UVB / UVC supply chain is still emerging. However we expect a rapid growth in the next years as several players should enter into mass manufacturing.
Focus on UVB / UVC LED Industry
UV LED INDUSTRY
• The UVB / UVC industry is progressing slowly but progressing!
• Contrary to UVA LED industry, UVB / UVC industry was mostly driven by start-ups (that arebecoming now SMEs as market grows). But everything has changed with the entry of LG Innotek (2014)that has directly developed mass production.
• Not the 1st player to enter into mass production of UVC LEDs however the biggest one!
• And this is likely to make the difference and accelerate emergence of Deep UV (DUV) LED as thecompany hold all the trumps to successfully market the technology (supply chain, access to systemmanufacturer through the LG group…).
• More recently, the investment made by Nikkiso (i.e.: technology, manufacturing…) and the acquisition ofSETi by Seoul Viosys / Seoul Semiconductor are also showing positive signs about UVC LED industry,technology and so market development.
• For sure, start-ups (such as RayVio, CrayoNano…) will still have a key role in the development of the UVC LEDindustry / market as no standard / breakthrough manufacturing technology have emerged yet.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
28
Analysis - UV LED System Level
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
29
The merging of the semiconductor industry with the traditional UV lighting industry has created a redistribution of the value among the supply chain.
UV Lamp vs. UV LED - Different Strategies for Harnessing Value of UV LEDs
UV LED INDUSTRY
Integrator SWEET SPOT
Traditional UV lamps
UV LEDs
Traditional UV systems
UV LED Systems
UV Die UV ArraysUV Package
Ho
en
le, IS
T (…
)
Hoenle, IST (…)
Vertical
Integration
Horizontal
Integration
“Disruptive”
Integration
Crystal IS, HexaTech (…)
Photon Star (…)
LED
Manufacturer
SWEET SPOT
Philips Lighting (…)
Critical
SPOT
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
30
As for visible LEDs, introduction of UV LEDs create a “chasm” in the supply / value chain.
Focus on UV LED Module
UV LED INDUSTRY
• Main challenge toward integration of UV LED for UVB / UVCapplications (e.g.: phototherapy, disinfection…) is about currentperformance of UV LEDs that are still weak compared tointegrators’ requirements.
• Beside of that, the other issue is about integration of thesedevices into UV LED systems (optics, thermal management…).
• And modules represent this bridge between the packaged LEDoffer and the final system / solution.
• A significantly integrated UV LED module reduces the level of know-how necessary for UV LED system manufacturing / integration,thereby enabling conventional manufacturers / integrators to haveeasier access to the technology.
• Some companies have already identified such bottleneck in the supply /value chain and start offering UVC LED module (e.g.: Nikkiso…) orspecific services associated to UV LED module design (e.g.: DotMetrics…)
What UV LED
manufacturers
produce
• Packaged Emitters
• Components
• Proprietary
Standards
• Short Product Life
Cycles
• Long Product
Lifetime
What UV system
manufacturers use
• Lamps
• Lighting Systems
• Industry Standards
• Long Product Life
Cycle
• Vast Bulb
Replacement
Market
The “Chasm”
Thermal Management
Drivers
Encapsulation
Optics
UV Light Module (…)
UV LED MODULES
LED
Die/Chip
Packaged
LED
Light /
LED
Module
Light
Source(Module +
Driver)
Light
System/
Solution
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
32
• NOW ESTABLISHED IN UV CURING, UV LEDS WILL FIND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES INDISINFECTION / PURIFICATION,AND NEW APPLICATIONS BY 2017 / 2018!
• UV LED CHIP MANUFACTURING IS THE MAIN BOTTLENECK FOR HIGH PERFORMANCEDEVICES!
• THE RECENT ENTRY OF GIANTS FROM THE VISIBLE LED INDUSTRY IS LIKELY TOACCELERATE MATURATION OFTHE UV LED INDUSTRY!
• SPECIFIC EXPERTISE / PLAYERS WILL BE REQUIRED AT THE MODULE LEVEL TO EASIERINTEGRATION IN SOME APPLICATIONS.
• MORE MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS ARE LIKELYTO COME!
• CHINESE INDUSTRY SHOULD GROW RAPIDLY AS MORE RESSOURCE ARE BEINGALLOCATED!
CONCLUSION
©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
33
Thank you for your attention!
Any questions?
Contact Details:
Pars MUKISH
Yole Développement
Business Unit Manager
[email protected]©2016 | www.yole.fr | UV LEDs
