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Transcript of US Army Engineer Research and Development Center U.S. IOOS MODEL VALIDATION CAPABILITY SURA...
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
U.S. IOOS MODEL VALIDATION CAPABILITY
SURA SUPER-REGIONAL TEST BED
Working across agencies to bring observations and models together in a natural coastal laboratory…
USACE Field Research Facility
Jeff HansonUS Army Corps of Engineers, Field Research Facility, Duck, NC
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
SURA SUPER-REGIONAL TEST BED
Don Wright (SURA), Yesterday…
Test Bed Goals
1. Develop skill metrics and evaluate model performance…
Year 1 Products
1. Skill metrics and identification of key performance factors for
test bed modeling regimes…
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
An
alysis
Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics
Interactive Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System
Inundation Modeling Test BedSkill Assessment Concept
InundationModeling Systems
Waves Circulation
Atmosphere
Storm Surge
Research
SURAServer
Regional Observations
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Graphical User Interface
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Features
• Stand-alone desktop model validation toolkit
• Based on published NOAA standards (Hess et. al., 2003; Zhang et.al., 2006).
• Robust error metrics: Erms, bias, Scatter Index, Skill Score
• Explore model errors as a function of time, space, event, etc.
Performance Scores
• Performance scores range from 0 to 1 (1 is a perfect match)
• Synthesize error metrics across space and time
• Normalized to mean observed quantities
• A measure of error % relative to mean observed quantities
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
IMEDS Error Analyses
Statistical Analyses• Temporal correlation
• Quantile-Quantile (distributions)
• Peak event (peak over threshold)
Parameters Added To-Date
Winds
Waves(Windsea and swell)
Storm Surge
Speed, Direction
Height, Period, Direction
Water level, High water marks
Error Metrics
• RMS Error
• Bias, Angular bias
• Scatter Index
• Circular correlation
• Performance (Skill) Scores
Coming Soon
• Target Plots
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
IMEDS Error Metrics
Bias
RMS Error
Scatter Index
Reference: Hanson, Tracy, Tolman and Scott, 2001. J. Oce. Atms. Tech., 26, 1614-1633
For n pairs of measurement (m) and hindcast (h) data…
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
IMEDS Error Metrics
Angular Bias
Circular Correlation
Reference: Hanson, Tracy, Tolman and Scott, 2001. J. Oce. Atms. Tech., 26, 1614-1633
And for directional data…
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
IMEDS Skill Scores
Bias Skill
RMS Error Skill
Scatter Index Skill
Station Skill
Total SkillCombine station scores using sample size weights
Scores range from 0 to 1 1 = perfect agreement 0 = totally uncorrelated
Scores are computed relative to mean observed quantities
Average the 3 scores
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Peak Over Threshold Extraction
Peak Event Analysis
Peak Event Statistics
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
FEMA Region III Storm Surge Project
Hurricane IsabelMax Water Levels
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
FEMA Region III Storm Surge Study:
Hurricane Isabel September 2003
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
FEMA Region III Storm Surge Study:
Nor’Ida November 2009
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Supported Data Formats
Observed Data
• NDBC buoys
• NODC wind/wave stations
• NOS – includes detide option
• IMEDS Generic Format
Model Output
• WW3 (*spc)
• SWAN (spec2d.out & TAB(opt))
•ADCIRC Water-Level (fort.61)
• ADCIRC Wind (fort.72)
• Extract from SURA OpenDAP Server (netCDF file)
• IMEDS Generic Format
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
IMEDS Generic Format
Sample File
% IMEDS generic format version 1.0 – water-elevation % year month day hour min watlev (m) NOS UTC NAVD 8635750 37.9950 76.4650 2009 11 9 0 0 0.2440 2009 11 9 1 0 0.1580 2009 11 9 2 0 0.0530 2009 11 9 3 0 -0.0310 2009 11 9 4 0 -0.1000 5461421 36.8432 73.5591 2009 11 9 6 0 -0.1520 2009 11 9 7 0 -0.0900 2009 11 9 8 0 0.0140
Station Data
Station Data
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
IMEDS Set Up GUI
Sample File
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Accomplishments to DateAccomplishments to Date
• IMEDS posted on SURA Server with illustrated users guide
• Develop data interface to SURA OpenDAP server
• Implement generic text file interface
• User-defined graphics export formats (jpeg, png, fig, etc…)
• Prototype Target Plot
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Want to use IMEDS?Want to use IMEDS?
• Download IMEDS from SURA Server
• Review fully illustrated users guide
• Ensure observation data are in native format (NOS, NODC, etc) or IMEDS Text format
• Export model results in IMEDS generic text format
• Seek help as needed from CI group and/or USACE
• Put IMEDS to work for you!