IOOS Modeling Strategy Development

March 7, 2013

Becky Baltes, John Ten Hoeve, Leslie Rosenfeld, Rich Signell, Dave Schwab

Agenda

1. Motivation (10 Minutes)

2. Candidate Goals of the Modeling Strategy (10 min)

3. Goals for Discussion (10 min)

4. Discussion (50 min)

5. Next Steps / Action Items (10 min)

Why a Modeling Strategy?

• FY14 NOP milestone“Develop a national modeling strategy that uses the various ocean models (ocean circulation, waves, atmospheric, biological, ecosystem, etc.) to determine how regional scale models supported by IOOS regions can be integrated into Federal efforts, and describes how they can be developed in a nested fashion to support local, regional, national, and global needs”

• Advance IOOS Initiatives

• Needs identified during IOOS Summit

• DMAC subsystem provided evidence that strategy development is beneficial

Now is the Time• Regionally

– IOOS Modeling and Analysis Workshop (MAST) Report

– Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed

– Strong modeling capacity in the regions

– 10-year Build-Out Plans

• Federally– NOS priorities for Estuarine, Coastal, Ocean Modeling

Document (2007)

– Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)

– NOAA Storm Surge Roadmap

– NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap

Models Identified for all Regions

WIND VELOCITY OFF N CA

SWELL HT & DIR OFF S CA

TEMPERATURE & CURRENTS NEAR CAPE COD

Each Region Faces Somewhat Unique Issues

ice forecasts

optimal shiprouting tool

PWC

Instrumented lobster trap

BSOP

Wave glider

beach closures

HAB forecasting

storm surge

Hurricane forecasts

Sea level rise

POAM = Information Gathering• Describe the high-level landscape of estuarine, coastal,

and ocean modeling within U.S. IOOS• Engage the modeling community to address capabilities,

gaps, requirements, goals, etc.• Document the important modeling-related issues facing

each RA• Investigate the potential for regional modeling efforts to

contribute to strategic goals at the federal level and for federal modeling efforts to contribute to regional requirements and goals

• Analyze RA build-out plans• Identify current funding and project future funding of the

IOOS modeling subsystem

TimelineActivity TimelineDiscuss modeling white paper at IOOS RA Program Meeting

Month 1

Select IOOS Modeling Steering Team Month 1Discuss goals of steering team, Develop POAM Month 2-4Receive feedback on the POAM and revise Month 5Execute the POAM Month 6-7Online or in person workshop (resource dependent) Month 7Document findings and share with IOOS Modeling Steering Team/RAs

Month 8-9

Develop a draft modeling strategy Month 10-12Disseminate draft modeling strategy with RAs and other federal and regional partners for review and comment

Month 13

Receive feedback and revise the strategy Month 14Finalize strategy and begin execution Month 15

Candidate Goals of Strategy

• Better understand local, regional, national, academic, and industry modeling capabilities

• Improve coordination between local, regional, national, academic, and industry modeling efforts

• Connect the modeling subsystem to regional resource management issues (Issue-based)

• Connect the modeling subsystem with the observation and DMAC subsystems

Goals for Discussion1. Discussion of an issue-based approach to

develop strategy. Alternative approaches?

2. Determine method to establish an IOOS modeling steering team

Strategy team does not need to be the same as a potentially permanent modeling steering team

3. Discuss role of the federal component in the development of an IOOS modeling strategy

4. Other concerns / topics

1. Issue-Based Strategy Identification

Management Issue Mod

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First, Identified by Programmatic Reps

Second, Identified by Modeler Reps

2. Steering Team DevelopmentProposed Team Selection:

– Super-regional representation– Representatives nominated by each RA and

selected by IOOS Association– Representatives chosen by the Program Office

(Fed, other)

Considerations:– A reasonable cap (~12?)– Contains programmatic reps and modeling reps– Contains federal, regional, and industry reps

3. Discuss Federal Component

• Role of federal modeling efforts in IOOS modeling strategy

• Roles and responsibilities for sharing regional modeling work with federal operational modelers

• With whom should we focus our coordination efforts (ie. NCEP, CSDL, etc…)?

4. Other Concerns / Topics?

Any additional comments or concerns?

Any other topics which should be discussed today?

Any topics that should be discussed with your regions?

Next Steps / Action Items

• Select steering team members based on today’s discussion (next 30 days)

• Hold first POAM development meeting with the steering team (next 45 days)