IOOS & Hurricanes & Fish – Oh My! Scott Glenn – Rutgers University

Demand for Fish

Hurricane Forecasting

Regions The Rise of the Regional Scale!

1000 km Cape to Cape

U.S. IOOS Mid-Atlantic Region - MARACOOS Mid-Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System

Cape Cod

Cape Hatteras

People

Ports

Critical Habitat

Offshore Energy

MARACOOS Satellite Data Network

Coldest Dark Pixel SST

Plankton Blooms

River Plumes

MARACOOS HF Radar Network

Mid-Atlantic HF Radar Network 16 Long-Range CODARs 7 Medium-Range CODARs 17 Short-Range CODARs 41 Total Triple Nested, Multistatic, Dual-Use

MARACOOS Glider Network

Satellite Ocean Color

Satellite SST

Subsurface Glider Data

MARACOOS MURI

Intl. Missions EPA & NJDEP

Cblast Endurance

OSSE SW06

Many Missions, Many Agencies

CODAR  Network   Glider  Fleet  Satellite  Data  Acquisi9on  Sta9ons   3-­‐D  Forecasts  

MARACOOS Operations Center Rutgers University - Coastal Ocean Observation Lab    

Hurricane Irene approaches MARACOOS Network

Before

After

•  Track accurately forecast days in advance.

•  Intensity overpredicted.

August 27, 2011

SST Difference

Global SST

Regional SST

Post-Hurricane Irene Sea Surface Temperatures

But when did the Cooling occur?

Hurricane Irene Glider Tracks & Temperature

Mixing & Cooling Occurs Rapidly as the

Eye Approaches

Hurricane Irene SST Sensitivity Hindcast

Maximum Wind Speed Skill Score

Official Forecast

Warm SST Hindcast

Warm SST + OML Model

Hindcast

Cold SST Hindcast

RMS Error 9.43 7.13 7.09 3.61

Global Warm SST Regional Cold SST

But What About the Fish? Large

Summer-Winter SST

Differences

Produce Migratory Fish Species

‘Butterfish’ Fall modeled as metabolic thermal response

NOAA Fisheries + MARACOOS = Fish Habitat Models

1998

2006

Favorable

Unfavorable

Gliders with integrated Fish-Tag Receivers

Satellite Salinity Glider Salinity

Tagged-Fish found in the

freshwater river plume

Thermal Structure of the Regional Scale Ocean: 1) Feedback on Weather Forecasts 2) Structure Large Marine Ecosystems

64 Large Marine Ecosystems ���

produce 80% of the

World’s Annual Fisheries Yields

Current Global Population: 7 Billion

But: ��� 800 Million without Clean Water��� 1.0 Billion without Adequate Food���

1.4 Billion without Electricity

2050 Global Population: 9 Billion

Growth is Concentrated in

Developing Countries

Migration is towards Coastal Megacites

Climate Change Only

Population Growth +

Climate Change

Future Water Scarcity

What do we need most?

Educated Young People

•  How do we take these students to sea? •  How do we reduce the barriers to participation? •  How do we build a diverse global community?

Interactive Science & Education through Cyber-Telepresence

The Ocean is our Classroom - Telepresence

The Ocean is our Classroom - Omnipresence Global

Challenger Glider Mission

16 Legs with 16 Global-

Class Gliders

Creating the Next Generation of Ocean Explorers