UNEP Country Project on Trade Liberalisation in the Agriculture sector and

the Environment

Project Leader: Aliou Diagne

Impact Assessment EconomistWARDA, The Africa Rice Center

The rice sector in Côte d’Ivoire

19 February 2003Geneva

BackgroundRelevance of the rice sector to the national economy

• 5% of GDP

• ½ million farms (60% of working age population)

• ½ million hectares (7.5% of cultivated land)

• 600,000 tones production (70% of Cereal production)

• 440,000 tones imported ($120 millions forex)

• 80 kg/year per capita consumption

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Background

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

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Importation ( left scale) Production (left scale) Per capita consumption (right scale) Trend in per capita consumption (right scale)

Relevance of the rice sector to the national economy:Increasing trends in consumption and imports

Project Approach and Process

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Implementing Research Institutions • WARDA/ADRAO – The Africa Rice Center

– Responsibility for overall project implementation & outputs

– Research

– Technical and Methodological support to the national research team

• Réseau d’Etudes d’Impacts de la Côte d’Ivoire (REI)– Assembling the national research team

– Collection and processing of primary and secondary data

– Establishment and management of the Steering Committee

– Organization of national stakeholder meetings and consultations

– Organization and management of the continuous national peer review process

– Follow up on policy recommendations

Project Approach and Process

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

The Research TeamWARDA/ADRAO -The Africa Rice Center

CIRESCentre Ivoirien de Recherches Economiques et Sociales

ANADERAgence Nationale d’Appui au Développement Rural

•Dr. Aliou Diagne, Impact Assessment Economist•Dr. Frédéric Lançon, Policy Economist

Assisted by: •Mr. Arsène Kouame (R.A.)•Mr. Ali Touré (R.A.)

•Dr. Kalilou Sylla, Deputy Head, Macroeconomics and Modeling Unit•Dr. Aïssata Sobia, Deputy Head, International Economic Relations Unit•Dr. Namizata Binaté, Socio economist

Assisted by:•Geoffoy Dibakala (R.A.)•Yaya Ouattara (G.S.)• Souleymane Diallo (G.S.)•Michel Droubly (G.S.) 

•Dr. Miaman Koné, Permanent Sécretary of Impact Assessment Network of Cote d’Ivoire

Assisted by:•Clément Kpan •Oulaï (Statiscian Economist) • Luc Adou (Economist)• Martin Kokora(Statistician)

Project Approach and ProcessTrade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Project Steering Committee1. Ministère du Plan (Steering committee chaired by the Director General of Plan)

2. Ministère de l’Agriculture

3. Ministère du Commerce Extérieur

4. Ministère du Commerce Intérieur

5. Ministère de environnement

6. INADES-Formation (a local NGO)

7. ANOPACI (l’Association Nationale des Organisations Professionnelles Agricoles de Cote d’Ivoire)

8. ANARIZ (National Association of Rice Producers)

9. PNR (Projet National Riz – a government development agency)

10. Association Marché Gouro – (an association of women traders)

11. BNETD (Bureau national d’études techniques de développement -- a think-tank attached to the Prime Minister cabinet)

12. INS (Institut National de la Statistique)

13. CNRA (Centre National de Recherche Agronomique)

14. PNGTR (Programme National de Gestion des Terroirs)

Project objectives

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

• Develop in-country methodologies for integrated assessment of trade liberalization for the rice sector

• Carry out integrated assessments of trade liberalization for the rice sector

• Develop policy packages to mitigate the negative environmental and economic impacts of trade liberalization

Specific Project objectives

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

1. To take stock of the current state of the rice economy in Côte d’Ivoire, including an inventory of the initiated national, regional and international policies that affect the rice sector.

2. To assess the environmental impact of the WTO AoA induced trade liberalization measures, focusing on deforestation and rice biodiversity.

3. To analyze the impact of the WTO AoA induced trade liberalization measures on the competitiveness and income of local rice growers and on the supplies and demands of local and imported rice.

Specific Project objectives

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

4. To simulate impact of the establishment of a unified Agricultural market within the UEMOA countries on the same indicators (deforestation, genetic erosion, competitiveness and income of local rice growers, and rice supply and demand)

5. To formulate recommendations to decision-makers based on the results of the study.

Development of In-country Methodology

An integrated framework that includes:

• Use of modeling tools to obtain quantitative environmental and economic impact indicators

• A process-oriented qualitative approach that ensures the meaningful participation of stakeholders in the assessment process.

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Methodology

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Two complementary models:• A disaggregated Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM or EDRC) for

three rice-based systems (upland, lowland and irrigated) to assess impact on their comparative advantage, economic profitability, and environmental costs.

• A micro-economic model encompassing:

– a model of determinants of choice for the varieties and surfaces cropped by rice growers to estimate impact on deforestation and rice biodiversity

– a model of choice between imported and local rice by urban consumers to estimate the demand and supply of local and imported rice

Integrated Assessment of Impacts of Trade Liberalization and WTO AoA

Relevant AoA trade liberalization measures:• Market access measures:

– conversion of non-tariff barriers into their tariff equivalent

– 24% tariff reduction.

• Domestic support measures:– 13.3% reduction in total Aggregate Measurement Support

(AMS).

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Integrated Assessment of Impacts of Trade Liberalization and WTO AoA

Rice trade liberalization policies enacted since 1995 in Cote D’Ivoire:– Privatization and liberalization of cargo rice import (July 1995)

– Dissolution of the Price equalization fund (March 1996)

– Reduction of tariffs on imported rice to 10 to 15% (Mars 1996)

– Liberalization of the consumer price of imported rice (March 1996)

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Environmental Indicators:Chemical input usage

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Figure 1: Relation between rice cultivation and fertilizer use

Figure 2: Relation between rice cultivation and pesticide use

Environmental Indicators: Level of deforestation

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Average hectares of forest land cleared for cultivation by a farm: a decreasing trend of 0.07 hectares per year

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Environmental Indicators:Deforestation rate

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Percentage of farms that have forest land cleared: an increasing trend of 0.5 percentage point per year

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Environmental Indicators:Differential deforestation rates among crops

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Percentage of rice farms that have forest land cleared: an increasing trend of 0.4 percentage point per year

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Percentage of Coffe-Cacao farms that have forest land cleared an increasing trend of 0.08 percentage point per year

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Environmental Indicators:Rice Biodiversity

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Type and average number of rice varieties cultivated by a farmer

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NARSuplandNARSlowlandWARDAuplandNERICAS

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Environmental Impacts:Impact of Modern varieties on Rice Biodiversity

Trade liberalization in the Côte d’Ivoire rice sector

Change in the number of traditional varieties cultivated by a farmer as a result of knowing one more variety

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