© OECD/IEA 2013

Webinar20 June 2013

Markus WrakeJustine GarrettDavide D‘Ambrosio

Contact: etp_project@iea.org

© OECD/IEA 2013

Tracking progress: why, how and against what?

Global CO2 emissions under ETP 2012 scenarios

All sectors must contribute to reduce emissions in line with a 2°C scenario.

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2009 2015 2020

GtC

O2

Other transf. 1%

Buildings 18%

Transport 22%

Industry 23%

Power gen. 36%

6DS emissions 38 Gt

2DS emissions 32 Gt

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Renewable power a light in the dark

Renewable power generation

42% Solar PV capacity

growth 2012

19% Wind capacity growth 2012

-11% Slowdown in renewable

capacity investment 2012

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The IEA Energy Sector Carbon Intensity Index

A gloomy global picture: the ESCII

Global energy supply is as carbon intensive today as it was in 1990.

46% Increase in global energy

demand 1990-2010

44% Increase in energy-related CO2 emissions 1990-2010

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Coal continues to outpace non-fossil energy sources

Coal and non-fossil power generation

2010 generation from coal was 28% higher than all non-fossil sources combined.

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

TWh

Hydro Other renewables Nuclear Coal Share of Coal Share of non-fossil electricity

2DS targets

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Coal-to-gas switching: a regional phenomenon

Natural gas spot prices

Natural gas is displacing coal-fired generation in some countries, but regional market dynamics are driving divergent trends.

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United States (Henry Hub)

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Wanted: major new construction in nuclear

Nuclear capacity additions and reactors under construction

16 GW of capacity additions are required out to 2020, versus a 30 GW historic high in the mid-1980s.

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Net GW connected to the grid Reactors under construction

2DS targets

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CCS: still waiting its cue from governments

Cumulative spending on CCS projects

There are signs of commercial interest in CCS technologies, but government policy remains inadequate to drive progress.

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Improvement in fuel economy, but still a long road ahead

Fuel economy readiness index status, 2012

Fuel economy is improving, but significant potential remains globally.

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Hybrid vehicles are taking off

HEV sales reached 1.2 million in 2012 and need to grow 50% every year until 2020.

HEV global annual sales

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High feedstock prices see biofuels production stalled

Global biofuels production

Global production remained static in 2012, highlighting vulnerability of conventional biofuels to extreme weather events.

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Energy efficiency remains a largely untapped resource

31%19%

Iron and steel BAT energy

savings potential

25%Cement BAT

energy savings potential

28%Chemicals and

petrochemicals BAT energy savings

potential

Increase in industrial energy consumption 2000-2010

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Stringent building energy codes should be enforced

50% of all existing buildings will still be standing in 2050BECs must target new and existing buildings

Building code implementation and stringency

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The power is in the data: tracking systems integration

Smart grid technologies

Smart grid demonstration and deployment is intensifying, but better deployment indicators and data are required to accurately track progress.

2010 2020

Variable renewable capacity

234 GW(4.5%)

942 GW( 13.4%)

2010 2020

Electricity demand in transport

278 TWh(1.6%)

404 TWh(1.4%)

2010 2020

Global electricity demand

17 860 TWh 22 680 TWh

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Variable andpeak demand

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Energy RD&D: declining share but more wisely spent

IEA government RD&D expenditure

Energy RD&D has slipped in priority in IEA member countries.

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Renewable energy Nuclear Fossil fuels Other Share of energy RD&D in total R&D

© OECD/IEA 2013

Energy gets a small slice of the research pie

2010 OECD government RD&D expenditure – 281 USD billion

87 bn USDDefence

46 bn USDHealth and environment

43 bn USDGeneral university funds

43 bn USDOther

36 bn USDNon-oriented research

15 bn USDSpace programmes

11 bn USDEnergy

© OECD/IEA 2013

Summing up the parts

Renewable power

Electric and hybrid-electric vehicles

Smart grids

Fuel economy

Gas-fired power

Nuclear power

Coal-fired power

Carbon capture and storage

Industry

Biofuels

Buildings

© OECD/IEA 2013

Upcoming publications

Transition to Sustainable Buildings

Join us on June 27 for the launch webinar

Register here:https://cleanenergysolutions.org/training/transition-to-sustainable-buildings

Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013

Released June 26

© OECD/IEA 2013