Tracking Clean Energy Progress - Microsoft · Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 – Key High...
Transcript of Tracking Clean Energy Progress - Microsoft · Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 – Key High...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Tracking Clean Energy Progress (TCEP): Where are we along the road of energy transitions?
Paul SIMONS, Deputy Executive Director 4 December 2018 – COP24 – EU Pavilion
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IEA at COP24 – Key messages
• Paris Agreement goals are slipping out of reach - IEA estimates energy-related CO2 emissions will reach an historic high in 2018
- To meet Paris goals, CO2 emissions need to peak around 2020 and enter a steep decline
• The IEA Family of countries now covers almost 75% of global energy demand, so is ideally placed to help countries meet their energy objectives
• The IEA offers data, analysis and solutions across “All Fuels and All Technologies”
• IEA analysis is key to tracking progress of global energy transitions - Assessing progress on energy transitions, under the Talanoa Dialogue and beyond
- Helping to drive further NDC ambition
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Global emissions are set to increase in 2018 - again The world is not moving towards the Paris goals, but rather away from them
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 (TCEP): Historical data basis
CO2 emissions Increase in 2017
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10
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25
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35 Gt CO2
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TCEP 2018: SDS as a benchmark on where do we want to go
A wide variety of technologies are necessary to meet goals, with energy efficiency and renewables playing lead roles
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
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2010 2020 2030 2040
Central Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario
Efficiency
Renewables
Fuel-switching
CCS Other
Nuclear
44%
36%
2% 6% 9% 2%
Gt CO2
2
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TCEP 2018: How energy sectors can contribute to the decarbonisation effort
Cumulative emissions reductions between 2017 and 2040 for each sector in the SDS compared to the NPS, including indirect emissions.
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Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation
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18
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30
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt 36
Sustainable Development Scenario
Coal-fired power plants
Increased room to
manoeuvre
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New Policies Scenario
Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.
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Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 – Key High Level Indicators
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Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 – Key High Level Indicators
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CO2 Indicators
Aggregate energy sector CO2 emissions
Sub- sectoral CO2 emissions
Clean Energy transitions indicators framework
Aggregate indicators
Sub- sectoral indicators
Energy sector carbon intensity Electricity share of energy consumption
Primary energy intensity
Energy efficiency improvement rate Investment share of low carbon energy
Public and private investment in clean energy RD&D
Power sector (example) Share of low-carbon power generation in overall power generation
Average CO2 intensity of electricity generation CO2 intensity of power generation from new investments
Share of new low-carbon power generation investment in overall power generation investment
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Aggregate Indicators for Clean Energy Transitions
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MtCO
2/Mtoe
(TFC
)
Energy Sector Carbon Intensity
Historical SDS Targets
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1990-2013average 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018-2040average
annu
al c
hang
e in
ene
rgy
inte
nsity
Annual change 2017 SDS Target
Energy intensity
The world’s energy supply in 2017 was as carbon intensive as in 2000, it needs to decline by 47% by 2040; Global energy intensity improved by only 1.7% in 2017, but needs to accelerate to 3.4% annually.
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Power sector sub-sectoral indicators
Generation from low-carbon technologies needs to increase to nearly two-thirds by 2030; the carbon intensity of power generation needs to more than halve by 2030
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1 000
2000 2010 2020 2030
gCO
2/kW
h Power generation carbon intensity
India
SoutheastAsiaChina
World
UnitedstatesEuropeanUnion0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2010 2020 2030
Share of new capacity additions Low carbon
Renewables
Total Plantsfitted with CCS
Coal
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Solar PV is the only renewable technology on track
Following another record year in 2017, solar PV continues to lead the expansion in renewable power, driven by unprecedented growth in China and strong deployment in the US and India
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1 000
1 500
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TWh
Solar PV generation
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Renewables growth is not fully on track for what is needed
Renewables saw highest rate of generation growth among all energy sources in 2017, but deployment must further speed up to meet 2030 targets and beyond
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2000
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Renewables generation by technology
Ocean
Geothermal
CSP
Offshore wind
Bioenergy
Hydropower
Onshore wind
Solar PV
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The number of passenger electric cars on the road passed 3 million in 2017, although they still represent just 0.3% of the global car fleet
The number of passenger electric cars on the road passed 3 million in 2017, but it needs to grow to 240 million by 2030 in the SDS
EV growth has grown rapidly; strong momentum needs to continue
0.0
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1.0
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mill
ions
Others
United States
Europe
China
Global electric car stock
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1000
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Elec
tric
car s
tock
(mill
ions
)
SDS Target
Others
United States
Europe
China
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The future of e-mobility extends to 2/3-wheelers, low speed vehicles, buses, trucks, and autonomous/connected/shared vehicles
Beyond electric cars: the future of e-mobility
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Transport biofuels are far from reaching their potential
Production of transport biofuels grew by 2% in 2017, but transport biofuels need to triple by 2030 to meet SDS
Transport biofuels production
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300
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2025 SDS 2030 SDS
Mtoe
Forecast Historical
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Cooling is driving electricity demand growth
Share of world electricity demand growth to 2050
Space cooling 21%
Appliances 15% Heating
7%
Other buildings 15%
Industry 32% Other 10%
Electricity demand for air conditioning could more than triple by 2050 – requiring as much new electricity capacity as all of the United States, EU and Japan today – but better policies could cut it in half
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LED lighting is on track, thanks to government policy & innovation
LEDs are on track to dominate residential lighting by around 2020; 3.3 billion LEDs were installed in 2017, underpinned by falling costs & government policy
Global residential lighting sales by type
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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LEDs Fluorescents Incandescents & other
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Industry CCUS pipeline is growing...
The global portfolio of large-scale CCUS projects continued to expand in 2017, with one additional industrial project linked to bioenergy coming into operation (in the U.S.)
Large-scale CO2 capture projects
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0
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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
MtC
O2
Large Scale CO2 capture projects
Refining
Natural gas processing
Iron and steel
Chemicals
Biofuels
Maximum projected capacity
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…but industry and fuel transformation remains way off track….
CCUS is one of the few existing mitigation technology options for industry, but remains woefully off track to achieve the 2030 target.
Large-scale CO2 capture projects
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MtC
O2
Large Scale CO2 capture projects
Refining
Natural gas processing
Iron and steel
Chemicals
Biofuels
SDS target
Maximum projected capacity
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Energy storage lost its on track status and needs improvement
Additional utility-scale deployments for all storage technologies (excluding pumped hydro) remained flat in 2017 (620 MWh). This is insufficient to meet the SDS, which requires 80 GW of capacity additions by 2030.
Energy storage capacity
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GW
Storage needed under SDS
Planned PSH
Non-PSH storage
Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH)
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The IEA works around the world to support accelerated clean energy transitions that are
enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS
supported by ANALYSIS
and built on DATA www.iea.org/COP24
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www.iea.org IEA