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To Burn Or Not To Burn: Using Population
Models to Address the Management
Challenges of Ceanothus verrucosus
California Native Plant Society Conference
1/13/12
Kevin Cummins, UCSD
Dawn Lawson, US Navy
Keith Lombardo, NPS
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Objectives
• Describe a developing case-study of
using modeling to inform the resource
management process
• Provide some insight on when and how
modeling can be useful to managers
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Outline
• Overview of models in ecology
• Ceanothus verrucosus (CEVE)
• CEVE modeling
• Utilization of CEVE models
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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All Managers Use Models
Types of models:
Verbal
Graphical
Mathematical
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Use of Models by Managers
Models CEVE Results Utilization
Example Model:
CEVE populations recruit
after fires and eventually
die out without fire
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5Models CEVE Results Utilization
From Chitty 1996
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Mathematical Models
• Quantitative formalizations of verbal models
Provides quantification of outcomes
• Verbal models address qualitative features
They can miss complex dynamics.
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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7Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Types of Mathematical Models
• Deterministic
Analytical solutions
Poor forecasting
• Spatial
Different dynamics
• Stochastic
Embraces random variation
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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What Has Changed for Managers?
• Relevant Models: First generation of
managers with spatial-stochastic models
• Accessible Models: The species experts
can develop their own models
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Dangerous?
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Case Study: Ceanothus verrucosus
Long-lived
Obligate post-fire seeder
Short dispersal distances
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Limited Distribution
C. verrucosus
Cabrillo National Monument
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Demography of Long-lived
Plants
• Understanding of plant
population dynamics
developed with studies of
short-lived species
• Effects of management
options difficult to assess
within a single career
Image of 90yr CMN stand here instead
90 Year Old Stand
of CEVE
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Management Concerns
• Habitat loss
• Altered fire regimes
• Interval
• Intensity
• Habitat fragmentation
• Size
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Example Management
Question
What are the consequences of adopting
various fire policies at CNM on the
maintenance of CEVE populations?
When do they need to start burning?
What fire regime should be targeted?
14Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Structure of CEVE Models
• Stochastic
• Spatial
• Age based
RAMAS GIS (Applied Biomathematics)
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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CEVE Modeling Results
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Average Fire Return Interval (years)
How often should CEVE stands burn?
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Population Trajectories
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GFDL
PCM
Present Climate
Habitat Loss
Increase
Decrease
Which anthropogenic changes are the
greatest threat to CEVE?
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Sensitivity Analysis
A model parameter is sensitive if the model output is
varies by a relatively large amount compared to the
initial perturbation of the parameter.
What features of the CEVE models are
sensitive to estimation error?
18Models CEVE Results Utilization
More Sensitive Less Sensitive
Seedbank Longevity Later stage survival
Juvenile Survival Fecundity
Germination Rate Carrying capacity
Plant Longevity
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Sensitivity Exemplars
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Baseline Model
Baseline Model
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ExtendedSeedbank
ExtendedLifespan
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Conclusions from the Modeling
• Climate change poses greatest risk of population decline
– however depending on the extent of development, habitat loss may
be a greater threat than either climate change or increased fire
• More frequent fires are bigger risk than less frequent fires
• Development reduces abundance but population trajectory stable
Models CEVE Results Utilization
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CNM Management Take
• Improve estimate of upper tail of CEVE survival
curves and seedbank attrition
• Specify CNM fire return history specific models to
guide risk assessment
• Run small experimental burns (assess and refine
model parameter estimates)
• Continue model assessment & refinement
21Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Continuous Model-Data-
Management Integration
• Conclusions are no better than
the model
• Constant evaluation/updating to
ensure structure is good
• Monitoring to ensure parameter
estimates adequate
• Customize to target
particular questions
• Remember that a model is not
the real system
22Models CEVE Results Utilization
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Acknowledgements
• DoD SERDP
• Dr. Helen Regan
• Dr. Janet Franklin
• Dr. Paul Zedler
• San Diego 2050
Project
• Resit Akçakaya
• Kim O’Connor
• Andrea Compton
• Stephen Phillips
• Jerre Stallcup
• Marti Whitter
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24
A model is an attempted simplification of reality
“Make everything as simple as
possible, but not simpler”
Albert Einstein
“All models are wrong, some models are useful.”
George Box
Select a model that provides a useful description or is good predictor
Good data needed
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end
Models CEVE Models Utilization 25
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Present Climate GFDL Prediction
2100
Suitable HabitatNot Suitable Habitat
PCM Prediction
2100
(151 populations) (85 populations) (29 populations)
Habitat Suitability Submodel
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Considerations
• Difficult to quantify causal mechanisms.
• Species may not be at equilibrium with their environment.
• Limiting factors may change under different climate.
• Competitive interactions may change under different climate.