The UNEP Risoe CDM Pipeline

Global Carbon Markets

8. August 2011

Jørgen Fenhann

Differentiated global carbon markets

Source: Marie Christiansen, Ministry of Climate and Energy, Denmark, 2009

The monthly number of new CDM projects were around 100

Time development of secondary CERs.(670 Million CERs have been issued = 6.7 Billion € at 10 €/tonCo2)

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sCERs

Project types

Status of CDM projects NumberAt validation 3109Request for registration 44Request for review 66Correction requested 3Under review Total in the process of registration 113Withdrawn 52Rejected by EB 199Validation negative by DOE 184Validation terminated by DOE 945Registered, no issuance of CERs 2202Registered. CER issued 1135Total registered 3337Total number of projects (incl. rejected & withdrawn) 7939

Type

Hydro 1714 26% 442438 16% 49128 7%Wind 1548 24% 326489 12% 39769 6%Biomass energy 771 12% 171116 6% 19231 3%Methane avoidance 671 10% 108267 4% 7891 1%EE own generation 473 7% 204856 8% 30528 5%Landfill gas 352 5% 202638 7% 16947 3%Fossil fuel switch 132 2.0% 173980 6% 17458 3%EE Industry 132 2.0% 17959 1% 1650 0.2%Solar 121 1.8% 5389 0.2% 107 0.02%EE Supply side (power plants) 105 1.6% 61889 2% 667 0.1%Coal bed/mine methane 81 1.2% 106660 4% 6167 0.9%N2O 76 1.2% 253263 9% 152282 23%EE Households 72 1.1% 5218 0.2% 28 0.004%Afforestation & Reforestation 63 1.0% 20796 1%Cement 49 0.7% 33598 1% 1544 0.2%Fugitive 44 0.7% 70486 3% 7767 1.2%Transport 42 0.6% 10492 0.4% 359 0.1%EE Service 26 0.4% 1007 0.04% 6 0.001%HFCs 23 0.4% 476504 17% 315892 47%Energy distrib. 22 0.3% 11094 0% 316 0.05%PFCs and SF6 18 0.3% 11796 0.4% 405 0.1%Geothermal 18 0.3% 13402 0.5% 1977 0.3%CO2 usage 4 0.1% 287 0.01% 10 0.002%Tidal 1 0.02% 1104 0.04%Agriculture 1 0.02% 18 0.001%Total 6559 100% 2730745 100% 670128 100%HFCs, PFCs & N2O reduction 117 1.8% 741563 27% 468579 70%Renewables 4173 64% 959938 35% 110212 16%CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed 1202 18% 521954 19% 40326 6.0%Supply-side EE 600 9% 277839 10% 31510 4.7%Fuel switch 132 2.0% 173980 6.4% 17458 2.6%Demand-side EE 230 3.5% 24184 0.9% 1684 0.3%Afforestation & Reforestation 63 1.0% 20796 0.8%Transport 42 0.6% 10492 0.4% 359 0.05%

CDMnumber CERs Issued (000) 2012 CERs (000)

How large are the projects?

In the CDMPipeline the project in each Type are disaggregated in Sub-types

Number of projects AverageType Sub-types used in CDM projects At Request Regis- Of these Total kCERs Issuance

validation registration tered w/issuance per year SuccessAgriculture Irrigation 1 1 10

total: Alternative fertilisers1 Rice crops

Bagasse power 64 3 88 51 155 6864 85%Biomass Palm oil solid waste 19 3 28 7 50 3197 44%Energy Agricultural residues: other kinds 124 4 107 38 235 19508 81%total: Agricultural residues: rice husk 83 1 91 35 175 9224 91%770 Agricultural residues: mustard crop 5 6 2 11 374 108%

Agricultural residues: poultry litter 3 4 1 7 566 72%* Black liquor 3 7 1 10 811 99%

Forest residues: sawmill waste 21 16 7 37 2397 89%Forest residues: other 21 1 14 3 36 3887 99%Forest biomass 6 3 3 9 322 67%Industrial waste 9 1 10 557Gasification of biomass 4 9 1 13 250 17%Switch from fossil fuel to piped biogas 1 1 34Biomass briquettes 14 4 2 18 285 87%Biodiesel 1 1 77Biodiesel from waste oil 2 2 487Ethanol

Which sectors are prevailing globally and in Africa?

The renewable energy category is rising fastest

Some countries take most

Some regions are behind

Total in the CDM Pipeline kCERsLatin America 403 13.6% 535 14.9% 938 14.3% 92966 376330 13.8%Asia & Pacific 2434 82.3% 2872 79.8% 5306 80.9% 719126 2174616 79.6%Europe and Central Asia 25 0.8% 46 1.3% 71 1.1% 18462 40176 1.5%Africa 74 2.5% 98 2.7% 172 2.6% 33706 99143 3.6%Middle-East 22 0.7% 50 1.4% 72 1.1% 14359 40481 1.5%Less developed World 2958 100.0% 3601 100.0% 6559 100% 878620 2730745 100%

Number of all projectsNumber of small-scale 2012 kCERsNumber of full scaleFor all projects

The most active countries in Latin AmericaLatin America RegisteredBrazil 354 38% 194Mexico 181 19% 129Chile 80 9% 49Colombia 72 8% 32Peru 45 5% 24Argentina 38 4% 23Honduras 30 3% 18Ecuador 25 3% 16Panama 22 2% 7Guatemala 22 2% 11Others 69 7% 37Uruguay 15 1.6% 6Costa Rica 12 1.3% 8Dominican Republic 10 1.1% 2Nicaragua 8 0.9% 5El Salvador 7 0.7% 6Bolivia 6 0.6% 4Paraguay 4 0.4% 2Cuba 3 0.3% 2Jamaica 2 0.2% 1Bahamas 1 0.1%Guyana 1 0.1% 1Total 938 100% 540

Total Number

The most active countries in AsiaAsia & Pacific RegisteredChina 2727 51% 1510India 1698 32% 705Vietnam 189 4% 69Malaysia 145 3% 96Thailand 147 3% 54Indonesia 125 2% 70South Korea 86 2% 61Philippines 83 2% 55Pakistan 32 0.6% 12Sri Lanka 23 0.4% 7Others 38 1% 21Lao PDR 8 0.2% 1Cambodia 7 0.1% 5Nepal 6 0.1% 4Papua New Guinea 6 0.1% 1Singapore 4 0.1% 2Bangladesh 4 0.1% 2Mongolia 5 0.1% 3Bhutan 3 0.1% 2Fiji 3 0.06% 2Total 5293 100% 2660

Total Number

Africa is catching upAfrica RegisteredSouth Africa 41 23.8% 19Kenya 21 12.2% 5Morocco 17 9.9% 5Egypt 16 9.3% 9Uganda 14 8.1% 4Nigeria 11 6.4% 5Tanzania 7 4.1% 1Senegal 5 2.9% 1Tunisia 5 2.9% 2Congo DR 4 2.3% 2Cameroon 4 2.3% 2Rwanda 4 2.3% 3Madagascar 3 1.7% 1Côte d'Ivoire 3 1.7% 3Sudan 2 1.2%Swaziland 2 1.2%Mauritius 2 1.2%Zambia 2 1.2% 1Ghana 2 1.2%Mali 1 0.6% 1Ethiopia 1 0.6% 1Liberia 1 0.6% 1Lesotho 1 0.6%Libya 1 0.6%Togo 1 0.6%Mozambique 1 0.6%Cape VerdeEquatorial GuineaTotal 172 100% 66

Total Number

Start of Nairobi Framework

Who is buying

The CDMPipeline contains 450

buyers

Top 20 buyers ProjectsEcoSecurities 293Tricorona Carbon Asset Management Sweden 204Vitol 169EDF Trading 158Carbon Resource Management 147RWE 133Mitsubishi 105CAMCO 103AgCert 97Bunge Emissions Group 90Noble Carbon 91Danish Ministry of Climate & Energy 76Kommunalkredit 75MGM Carbon Portfolio 67Trading Emissions 67Agrinergy 66ENEL 64KfW 61Marubeni 57Cargill International 56

The top 20 PDD Consultants

The Pipeline contains

1550 PDD consultants

Top 20 PDD consultants ProjectsEcoSecurities 326Beijing Tianqing Power International CDM Consulting 176AgCert 146PricewaterhouseCoopers 117CasperVanderTak 117WB-CF 115CAMCO 108Carbon Resource Management 105CWEME 103Ecoinvest 101Agrinergy 91Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 90Tsinghua University 86Zenith Energy Services 74Easy Carbon 74AGET 69Econergy 68Hunan CDM Project Service Center 61Senergy Global 59MGM 58

In 2008 only 31% of the projects requesting registration were registered automatically, 36% in 2009

How large are the time delays in the project cycle?

Average times delays for all CDM projects Days Months YearsValidation (start comment until request registration) 385 12.8 1.1Registration (request registration to registration) 149 5.0 0.4Average number of days from registration until the date of first issuance: 541 18.0 1.5Total from start comment to first issuance 1075 35.8 3.0

How many CERs will be available end of 2012, due to delays, no positive validation, rejection, issuance delay and issuance succes

Expected Available Available 2008-12 2008-12 2013-20

CER's 2012 CER's expected from existing projects in validation stage 627 4402012 CER's expected from projects requesting registration 30 272012 CER's expected from registered projects 2074 323 990Total amount of CERs expected from future projects until 2012 265 186Total amount of CERs from existing projects produced after 2012 4130Total amount of CERs issued 670 1112 5771

Total requesting issuance 119Share Of Proceeds (SOP) for the Adaptation Fund 13.4 22 115Annual amount available 222 721

Million CERs (all types)

Of the 128000 Million US$ invested in registered CDM projects

Host country Registered All years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Share of(Rejected projects excluded) projects investmentsChina 1510 88191 62 1440 5697 11160 19788 31512 18532 68.6%India 705 20907 5 110 1367 4137 1306 4248 6805 2930 16.3%Latin America 540 9343 18 449 2646 1640 1610 1296 555 1129 7.3%Rest of Asia 446 5668 84 1033 434 347 985 1837 949 4.4%Africa 66 2467 119 373 301 73 329 660 612 1.9%Middle-East 39 1637 3 305 64 523 27 714 1.3%Europe and Central Asia 31 400 6 124 5 5 84 44 132 0.3%Total 3337 128612 23 830 6985 12518 14566 27253 41440 24998 100.0%

Million US$