The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 1

The National Earth System Prediction Capability Partnership

built upon National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)and Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC)

Jessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere ResearchDavid McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command

Daniel Eleuterio, Office of Naval ResearchFred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather Service

Aug 4, 2015

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 2

Interagency Effort: Result ofCommunity and Agency Calls to Action

• An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the Twenty-First Century (Shapiro et al. 2010)

• Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction (Brunet et al. 2010)

• Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability (Weller, 2010)

• A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling (NRC Press, 2012)

• Arctic Security Considerations and the U.S. Navy’s Roadmap for the Arctic (Titley and St. John, 2009)

• The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction are not Achieving their Potential (Mass, 2006)

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 3

Scientific rationale: same documents call for

• Holistic approach– Obs, models, DA, HPC

• Seamless weather-to-climate systems, including uncertainty

• Multi-model ensembles• Improve representation of processes,

esp. convection• Air-ocean-land-ice coupling• Exploit sources of predictability in

system– MJO, ENSO, Arctic ice, monsoon

variability• Common shared software

infrastructure

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 4

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Spanning Weather and Climate

Decision Time Scales/RequirementsNeed for “Seamless” (Internally Consistent) Forecasts

Agriculture

Rivers, snow: hydrologic management

Arctic ice ship routing

FEMA: Preposition emergency supplies

Transportation, coastal infrastructure and planning

Public safety: Hazardous weather watches, warnings

Energy planning

Politically destabilizing events

DOD planning

Aviation weather

DOD operations

Ship routing

Drought, flooding, heat, cold extremes

Hum. assistance

6,7,8 days: planning for evac/sortie

5 days: USN ship sortie

4 days: state/local emerg. evacuation

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National ESPC Partnership

incorporates existing NUOPC effort

• Goal: a more accurate, longer range, global ocean and atmosphere forecast system for decision support

• “Extended” Synoptic Range– Increased accuracy for lead times of 1-32 days– Accurate Arctic forecasts at multiple lead times.– Integrated, coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land and

upper atmosphere global prediction system with improved forecast skill over the current operational suite

• Longer Range:– Ensemble prediction to 90 days – Inter-agency multi-model sub-seasonal, seasonal, intra-annual,

sub-decadal to decadal outlooks of global weather and ocean conditions

• Need: more computationally efficient environmental prediction codes optimized for emerging architectures

A coordination activity to develop/implement a common or coordinated prediction technology through an affiliation of existing Programs, Projects, Laboratories, Centers

Partnership of federal environmental research and environmental operational guidance agenciesMeet needs of user community through existing/planned agency operational numerical prediction

capabilities through coordinated R&D and operations

Waves Land

Ice Aerosol

AtmosphereOcean

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Inter-agency Atmospheric Weather and Coupled Climate R2O Ensembles

• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP: 1-7 days)• Providing rapid improvement R2O capability for US (NOAA), Global (Navy) Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity• Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency resources

• National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC: 5-16 days)

• Multi-model ensembles improve medium-range forecasts and probabilities of specific events

• Leverage multi-agency resources and missions• Extending to 30 days (poss. 45 days)• Increase resolution to 1/2˚ in 2015• Incorporates Common Modeling Architecture (ESMF)

• N. Am. Multi-model Ensemble* (NMME: 1-9 months)• Multi-model Climate Ensembles: more accurate than any one model• Distributed Production: leverages multi-agency and

international computer infrastructure and investments (US, Canada)• Skill improves with spatial resolution - All run at sub-optimal

but best affordable resolution.

Leverage Existing Capabilities:Collaborative Programs Across Scales

*CPO, CTB funding

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NUOPC as a transition and operational implementation coordinator

• History managing inter-agency topic-driven committees– Common Model Architecture – Physics Interoperability– Unified Ensemble Operations– Coupled Global Modeling (new)– Integrated Modeling Systems (new)

• Common Model Architecture: ESMF v.6 (incl NUOPC layer) released• Unified Operational Ensemble

– 60-member ensemble plus 3 controls (NWS, CMC, Navy)– Common bias correction method– 1° resolution output, going to .5° in Sep 2015– 80 fields exchanged at 1°, becoming 91 fields at .5°– 16d extent with 6-hourly output going to 32d when ready– Raw and bias-corrected fields and products available– WWIII ensemble based on 63-member ensemble– Atmosphere-only, including ocean/sea ice/waves in 2018

A Common Model Architecture for Integrated Whole Earth Modeling

• The Earth system modeling community is converging on a common modeling architecture

• Atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land, wave, and other models are ESMF components called by a top-level driver/coupler

• Many models are componentizing further

Navy Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System / Wavewatch III Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction SystemHybrid Coordinate Ocean Model – CICE Sea Ice

NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)NOAA GFDL MOM4 Ocean Model

NASA GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NCAR Community Earth System ModelWeather Research and Forecast Model

HAF Kinematic Solar Wind-GAIM Ionosphere

pWASH123 Watershed-ADCIRC Storm Surge Model

Features and Benefits:• Interoperability promotes cross-agency

knowledge transfer and collaboration• Portable, fast, fully featured toolkits enhance

capability• Cost savings from code reuse• Automatic compliance checking for ease of

adoption

ESMF-enabled systems include:

A Common Model Architecture

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 9

NUOPC Layer

• Merger of NASA, NOAA NEMS, NRL ESMF infrastructure – Defines conventions for implementing the Earth System Modeling Framework;

compatibility-tested– Infrastructure for modelers to share common utility code, e.g. grid remapping– Implements a component-based software architecture with four basic building

blocks: Driver, Model, Mediator, and Connector.• Arrange in different ways to implement various model architectures:

simple connections, component hierarchies, ensemble systems

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 10

LEGEND Compliant (Completion

date)In progress Candidate

Coupled Modeling Systems NEMS

and CFSCOAMPS, COAMPS-TC

NavGEM-HYCOM-CICE

GEOS-5 ModelE CESM

Driver 2015 2015 2015Atmosphere Models

GFS/GSM NMMB 2015 CAM FIM 2015 GEOS-5 FV 2015 ModelE Atm COAMPS Atm NavGEM Neptune WRF

Ocean ModelsMOM 2016 HYCOM 2015 NCOM MPAS-O POP POM 2015

Sea Ice ModelsCICE 2015 2015KISS 2015

Ocean Wave ModelsWW3 2015 2015 2015 2015SWAN

DeLuca et al. 2015 (brief)

Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)

and the Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS)

• ESPS is a collection of NUOPC-compliant Earth system component and model codes

– interoperable, documented, available for integration/use

• Implementation is part of NOPP project awarded under ESPC

– “An Integration and Evaluation Framework for ESPC Coupled Models”

• ESPS interfaces are based on ESMF and the NUOPC Layer

• ESPS website with draft inclusion criteria and list of candidate models (Coupled, Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, and Wave):

http://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/esps/

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Research Challenges

• Advance understanding, representation of key processes– Multi-scale tropical convection and its two-way interaction with global circulation– Arctic processes: freeze-thaw, ice mobility; atmosphere BL and ocean modeling– Blocking processes– Atmosphere, land, hydrology, ocean, and cryosphere coupling; teleconnection processes

between Arctic, temperate, and tropical regions• Model technology:

– Data assimilation (including coupled DA) and ensemble generation techniques– Model component characterization of internal processes, coupling between components,

and interactions– Physical process-based metrics for model accuracy characterization as well as product

guidance– Ensemble numerical post-processing techniques

• Assessments of uncertainty• Member management (clumping, distributions)• Ensemble design across time scales: model membership, update cycles, initialization strategies etc.• Product generation to express perception of predictions as well as uncertainty (social science)

• HPC utilization– Exploit advanced architectures

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 12

NOAA ESPC-Related Programs

Leverage existing efforts across scales, coordinate with interagency efforts • Short Range Hurricane Ensembles• Mid-range global ensembles (NUOPC) - Operational • Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)

• Extended Weather Range:• 30 – 45 day weather ensembles

• Week 3 and 4 Initiative (Presidents Budget)

• Longer Range:• NMME sub-seasonal project 0-45 days in development

• NMME Phase-II Ensemble prediction

• Inter-agency multi-model sub-seasonal, seasonal, and intra-annual outlooks of global weather and ocean conditions

• NOAA HPC supports ONR-funded NOPP project on advanced architectures

• NOAA prediction R&D • Data assimilation, model improvement, post-processing projects

• Process-improvement projects (ice formation/melt, stratus and convection processes, ocean mixing and module coupling

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 13

NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble)An unprecedented MME system to improve intra-seasonal to interannual (ISI) operational predictions based on the leading US and Canada climate models.

NMME Phase-I: An experimental system initiated as a CTB research project supported by CPO/MAPP Program in FY11.

NMME Phase-II: An improved experimental seasonal prediction system as a FY12-13 MAPP/CTB project with contributions from NSF, DOE, NASA and NOAA Sandy Supplemental Fund.

• Ended July 2014• Extended to July 2015

NOAA is planning to operate NMME Phase-II to both support its seasonal forecasts and its research activities.

Organizations Models

NOAA/NCEP CFSv2

NOAA/GFDL CM2.1FLOR (March 2014)

NASA/GMAO GEOS5

Environment Canada CMC1-CanCM3CMC2-CanCM4

NCAR CCSM3.0CCSM4.0 (July 2014)

NCAR CESM1.0 (Jan 2015)

*new/upgraded models

NMME-Phase II Forecast Providers

Courtesy of Huang (NCEP), Mariotti (CPO), Gross (GFDL)

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 14

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•North American Ensemble Forecast System/NMME

•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast•Global Forecast System

•North American Mesoscale

•Rapid Refresh

•Dispersion (smoke)

•Global Ensemble Forecast System/NUOPC

• Regional Hurricane

Spanning Weather and Climate

•Global Dust

•Fire Wx

Vision:Multi-model ensemble system across scales

•Climate Forecast System

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 15

Questions?

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Supplemental Information

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 17

FY14 FY18 FY21 FY22 FY23FY19 FY20FY16 FY17FY15

National ESPC Atmospheric Model Roadmap

GFS SL/SI T1524L64

Hybrid Ensemble DA

Navy DSRC OPS FLOPS

NAVGEM 1.3 T425L60 (31km)

Common Physics Driver

NAVGEM 1.4 T639L70 (21km)

400 TFLOPS 1000 TFLOPS 3000 TFLOPS

DYCOR Core Down-select

Coupled Model DAHybrid EnKF-4DVar

Operational DYCOR Coupled System

Hybrid EnKF-4DVar

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Non-Hydro GFS

DYCOR Core Select

Coupled NAVGEM T1025100

NOAA OPS FLOPS

xxx TFLOPS xxx TFLOPS xxx TFLOPS

Coupled NAVGEM

Ensemble

NEXGEN Dynamic Core

DYCOR Coupled Ensemble

NAVGEM 2.0 T681L80 (19km)

Coupled Model DAHybrid EnKF-4DVar