National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Review

1 NUOPCNational Unified Operational Prediction Capability

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National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

ReviewCommittee for Operational Processing Centers

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC

Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren

16-17 November 2010

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Purpose of Briefing

• Provide NUOPC status update to COPC

• Review some key items prior to ESG presentation

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National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC

Outline

• Recent Accomplishments– IOC-1 implementation status– Common Model Architecture– R&D Workshop

• Near Term Priorities• DAPE Annex• Post-processing plan

– Course of Action recommendations• Common Metrics

– Draft for presentation to ESG– Discuss Agency Implementation Plans

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IOC-1 Update

• IOC-1 Implementation

– Scheduled on track for Q2 FY2011

– TOC Infrastructure upgrade completed in July

– FNMOC members integrated end of October

– Transition to operations began with scheduled completion on January 11, 2011

• IOC-1 Rollout – Lead TBD

• ESG desired OFCM Lead

– Terminology

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CMA Accomplishments 2010

• NUOPC Architecture Documents • Content Standards Committee - reviewing report

findings and passing tasks to ESMF Core Team for implementation

• ESMF release 5.1 to include NUOPC Compliance Checker and Compatibility Checker

• NOGAPS programmed into alignment with ESMF• NEMS implementation of ESMF adopted for NOAA

– Ongoing alignment with ESMF/NUOPC interoperability standards

• Proposed single column model development will be instrumental in identifying additional coupling/interoperability issues


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IOC-1 Product Terminology • Necessary as Roll Out strategy for public, Tri-

Agency use, journals, funding agencies• The CMA Committee should recommend

standard terminology for NEMS and the NUOPC Architecture (“Layer”)

• The CMA Committee should recommend standard terminology for NAEFS and NUOPC ensemble

• The ESG should approve for Tri-Agency use


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R&D Workshop

• Research and Development Workshop was held 16-18 Aug

• Workshop Objectives

– Review NUOPC progress

– Review Agency operational needs and identify common needs

– Review ongoing ensemble research

– Propose prioritized research and development agenda to meet common needs

• Prioritized R&D list to be presented to ESG

• Workshop summary submitted to Bulletin of AMS


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Near Term (FY11-12) Actions• Implement the National Unified Ensemble Forecast System

– NOAA/Navy partnership to improve probabilistic forecasts

– Common Metrics to measure performance

• NUOPC Common Model Architecture for Research transition to Operations

– NUOPC Interoperability Layer into the Earth System Modeling Framework

– Compliance Checker

– Compatibility Checker

• National R&D Agenda for Global NWP

– Socialize to R&D Agencies

– Presentations at AGU and AMS

• Earth System Prediction Capability - Initiative

– Grow partnership to other agencies, NASA, DOE, etc.

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DAPE Annex

• Use current Data Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange (DAPE) MOA– Recommend Annex that deals with joint multi-

model ensemble operations

– Draft Annex revised; reviewing with COPC

– Will be discussed at a later session

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Post Processing Plan

• Post processing needs further discussion– Technical issues: QC of raw model outputs,

bias correction, sophisticated calibration

– Development of standard probability distributions of model parameters, joint probability products, other user products

– Operations Concept: Who, What, When, Where, and How

• Will coordinate and recommend a path forward to ESG, potentially incorporate into a second annex to the DAPE MOA for ESG approval

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Post Processing Plan• Recommendation for IOC-1

– NOAA provides raw and bias corrected fields• Recommendation for IOC-2

– NOAA provides raw and bias corrected fields

– AFWA does primary post-processing for DoD mission products

– AFWA maintains Tri-Agency post-processing tool kit

– Post-processing coordinated by COPC JAG(s) (or whatever UEO Committee we recommend-must be same as other slide)


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Common Metrics

•Technical metrics considerations–Need a controlled comparison (i.e. model vs model)

–TTP Metrics subcommittee drafted initial proposal – sent to centers and liaisons

–Common verification requires:»Common climatology (i.e., for anom. corr., skill scores)

»Common analysis and/or common set of observations

»Parameters of interest

»Common test cases

•Request status of each agency’s implementation plan

•Request regular status reporting

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Common Metrics TableParameter Thresholds Statistics Regions Ground Truth Fcst Hour Interval Comments

500 mb HGT N/AAnomaly Correlation, RMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS

20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, CONUS

UKMO, Observations (After IOC)

12hrNCEP provides gridded climatology

10 Meter Winds >20,35,50kts

Brier Score, CRPS, RMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, Conditional Metrics (Foreacast RMSE > 35kts/50kts)



12hr

24hr Accumulated Precipitation

>.25,.5,1,2" Brier Score, CRPS


Observations 12hr

700mb Dew Point N/ARMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS


Observations (After IOC)

12hr

2 Meter Temperature

N/A RMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS



12hr

Significant Wave Height

>12,18,24ftRMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS

20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere

Observations 12hr

250mb Wind Speed N/ARMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS



12hr

Total Cloud Cover (percent)

N/ARMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS

Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere

Hemispheric World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA)

12hrAFWA provides WWMCA

Hurricane Tracks N/A Spread, Mean Track Error As Required Best TrackBest Track Interval

Verified after the fact once best track is available


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Ensemble Management beyond IOC-1

• Future issues involve ensemble members, post-processing, upgrades

• Potential options:– COPC set up specific JAG– COPC distribute tasks over existing

JAGs– Reconstitute the NUOPC UEO

Committee under the ESG

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Review

Documents

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