1 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Update to COPC 4 – 5 Nov 2015 Dave...
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Transcript of 1 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Update to COPC 4 – 5 Nov 2015 Dave...
1 NUOPCNational Unified Operational Prediction Capability
Update to COPC4 – 5 Nov 2015
Dave McCarren, NUOPC DPM
2 NUOPCNational Unified Operational Prediction Capability
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Agenda
National ESPC Update
NUOPC UEO Committee Update
NUOPC CMA Committee Update
Questions and Discussion
3 NUOPCNational Unified Operational Prediction Capability
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The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC)
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The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 4
National ESPC Update • ESG Principals +1 meeting hosted by Navy 5 May 2015
– Action: Revise the ESPC MOA and NUOPC Charter and create a new National ESPC MOA. Include recommendations from Decision Brief on Management Structure/Plan, and Personnel Issues. Work with climate community to help define what is operational for products to support strategic decision making, Define components that will be part of National ESPC - spiral 1
– Status: Draft National ESPC MOA created by Staff and briefed at 15 Oct ESG Meeting. MOA vs MOU, or Charter issue being worked, and no National ESPC personnel decisions made
• Draft National ESPC paper for BAMS sent to ESG Principals for feedback and co-authorship approval. Staff revising draft
• National ESPC to host session at 2016 AMS Meeting; 13 Jan 0830 – 1000 CST
• ESG meeting 15 Oct– Action: Create a whitepaper to examine the options to relate National ESPC to the OSTP
CENRS Sub-Committee structure.
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 5
UEO Committee Update
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 6
Unified Ensemble Operations
• NUOPC metrics from NCEP, FNMOC, and AFWA briefed at 15 Oct ESG meeting
• ½ Degree Data Exchange Upgrade delayed to late fall 2015 due to dedicated comm line issues between CMC and NCEP
• NUOPC/NAEFS mini workshop on 24-25 Feb– Face to face meeting of the Co-Chairs of the UEO Committee– Agenda focused on the development of NUOPC that includes data
exchange (of global and wave ensemble data, post process, ensemble week 3&4 forecast and future plans.
– Research following a concern by FNMOC over the timing of the CMC raw ensemble data resulted in NCEP starting raw data processing 90 minutes earlier, much closer to real time and bias corrected data.
• AF moved up operational GEPS processing to take advantage of this; GEPS suite had 5,000 unique users and about 4M product hits in the last 12 months
The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 7
NUOPC Verification Metrics
NH CRP scoresNH RMS errors
NA CRP scoresNA RMS errors
5-day forecast for surface temperature
Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height:
Latest 3-month winter scores: CRPS skill scoreRMS error and ratio of RMS error / spreadAnomaly correlation
All other regions/scores could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/NUOPC/NUOPC_bc_sum2015.html
NH CRPS skill scores
NH anomaly correlation
500hPa Height
NH RMS errors
Summer 2011 Winter 11/12
Summer 2015 Winter 14/15
Day-5 Continue Rank Probability Score
NUOPC summer 30-day CRP score from 16m to 13m = 20%
NUOPC winter 30-day CRP score from 25m to 22m = 12%
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
NUOPC Ensemble Performance
1 Jun 2015 – 24 Aug 2015
Mr. Bob Craig16 WS/WXN
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 13
Brier Skill ScoreTotal Cloud > 80%
Total Cloud > 80% - looking at the CONUS domain, skill is indicated out to about 48hrs. We expect skill to improve once we switch ground truth to an improved (more timely) World Wide Cloud Analysis.
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 14
Brier Skill ScoreWind Speed > 25kts
For wind speeds >= 25kts, northern hemisphere have significant skill out to 144 hours.
Below, red line above the diagonal means show GEPS is under-forecasting the event
25kts
25kts
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 15
Northern HemisphereWind Speed
The spread ratio for wind speed was greater than one for the entire period (under-dispersive) with NAVGEM and GFS members both being over-dispersive and GEM members also under-dispersive.
GEM members are under-dispersive while NAVGEM and GFS members are over-dispersive
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 16
Northern HemisphereTemperature
The spread ratio approached 1 over the summer which preferred
The spread was relatively flat throughout the forecast period, not overly under or over dispersive
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 17
Ensemble MeanNorthern Hemi -2 Meter Temps
Ensemble mean in solid red. GFS members in dotted green, NAVGEM members in dotted blue, and GEM members in dotted purple. The solid green is the GFS control member and the solid purple is the CMC control member. We do not currently receive a NAVGEM control member.
GEM members all show a cold bias while NAVGEM members show a warm bias leading to a warm bias in the ensemble mean. Not sure why NAVGEM members didn’t plot after 192hrs.
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 18
Ensemble MeanNorthern Hemi -10 Meter Winds
GFS had the lowest errors and NAVGEM had the highest
GFS and NAVGEM both had a high bias
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 19
Summary
The GEPS ensemble system is performing as expected Brier skill scores for wind speed indicated the GEPS
ensemble has significant skill out to 144hrs Total cloud had skill out to 48hrs (not significant). A switch
to a more timely analysis should improve these scores The GEPS ensemble spread score tends to be greater
than 1 with the mean RMSE > member standard deviation, indicating the ensemble members are under-dispersed which is a common ensemble issue
Ensemble mean forecasts have lower errors than the members which is expected for correctly designed ensembles
FNMOC NUOPC Verification
2015-09-30
500 hPa Height Verificationvs UKMET Analysis
Surface wind verificationCRPS Forecast vs Observations
Surface wind verificationSpread-Skill
Spread-skill was calculated incorrectly for a while so the plots for the longer time series cannot be made
Forecast vs Obs Forecast vs Analysis
Cloud Cover Verification
Tau 120
Tau 024
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 25
CMA Committee Update
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 2626
NUOPC
Common Model Architecture
• ESPS paper entitled “The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability” accepted by BAMS with minor revisions.
• CMA Committee drafting new whitepaper entitled “Using the ESPS” to describe a set of issues and actions needed to increase the usability of the ESPS and utilize these components in coupled and ensemble applications.
• PI Group delivered a working Physics Driver prototype with a common physics interface to GFS physics, in June 2015, to address NGGPS requirement to begin testing how it works and use in the selection of a new Dynamc Core, using a common set of physics. NGGPS Physics team providing feedback
• CSC Group completed review of API Utility Routines in NUOPC
Layer Reference Manual for ESMF v7.0.0.0 release in Dec 2015
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 27
Questions & Discussion