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Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

(NUOPC)

Fred Toepfer, NUOPC PM

May 29, 2008

NUOPC

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Purpose

• Brief review of NUOPC back ground & goals

• Status

• Next Steps

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NUOPC Background

• 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP

• 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area

• 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC– Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007– Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and

Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84)

• 2008 – Appointed Project Manager– Executing NUOPC Phase I– ESG approved interim committee chairmen– Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008

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NUOPC Vision (2015)

• Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs

• National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF)

• Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble

– Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather

– Mission Specific ensemble products• National global NWP research agenda to

accelerate science and technology infusion

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NUOPC Implementation ScheduleFY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prelim Phase I

Implementation Phase II FOC

Beta Test Phase III

STAFFING

CODE CONV.

MGMT REPORTG MOA

INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION

OPERATIONS

OUTREACH

MAINTAIN

Full Staff

Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC

ENS OPS TESTCONOPS, COMMS, IA

DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP

FOC

Quarterly Updates to Principals

STANDARDS

PARTICIPATION

TT PM, TEMPS

IOC-2IOC-1

PROTOTYPE OPS

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Status

• PM appointed• Rest of staff being acquired – DPM, etc.• IOC-1 Redefined

– Delivering NAEFS w/FNMOC Participation– Pursuing funding for three stretch goals

• Definition of NUOPC – Three interim committees being formed– Chairmen of committees approved– Membership being fleshed out

• Meeting with committee chairs today

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Info & Outreach Briefings

• COPC (November 15, 2007)• AMS (Jan 22, 2008, New Orleans)• NOAA/NCEP (March 13, 2008)• Navy/FNMOC (April 2, 2008)• Stakeholders - R&D Community (29 April 2008, ONR)

– NASA– FAA– OFCM– NOAA/OAR/NCEP/EMC/NODC– ONR/NRL– NCAR– DoD

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Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis

Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis

Navy(CNO N84)

RADM Gove

Navy(CNO N84)

RADM Gove

NOAA(Administrator)

VADM Lautenbacher

NOAA(Administrator)

VADM Lautenbacher

Executive Steering GroupExecutive Steering Group

NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD

NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD

LtCol Bruce LambertBrian Moore

LtCol Bruce LambertBrian Moore

Kim CurrySteve PayneKim Curry

Steve Payne

Joel ClineJeremy Potter

Joel ClineJeremy Potter

Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)

Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)

Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC)Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) &

RDML David Titley (CNMOC)

Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) &

Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)

TechnologyTransition

TechnologyTransition

AgencyLiaisonsAgencyLiaisons

InterimCommittees

InterimCommittees

CommonModel Architecture

CommonModel Architecture

UnifiedEnsemble Operations

UnifiedEnsemble Operations

NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley

NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley

NUOPC Management Structure

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Interim Committee Process

• Common Model Architecture– to facilitate accelerated transition and sharing of

technological advances• Technology Transition Process

– Common process and DTC to accelerate transition of internal and external research

– Coordinated research investment to address common operational needs

• Unified Ensemble Operations– Shared processing burden, coordinated

schedules, coordinated post-processing

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Committee Goals• Minimize operational center disruption• Achieve common architecture objectives while

sustaining developmental headway• Achieve full stakeholder support• Develop well-defined standards that will focus

research community participation and accelerate development

• Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology

• Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)

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IOC-1 Status

• NAEFS Implementation on Track– FNMOC ensembles flowing to NCEP since 1 April – Represents base IOC-1

• IOC-1 Stretch Goals Defined– Ensemble-based Ceiling & Visibility Product– Joint Wind-Seas Product– TC Track Uncertainty Guidance– 6 to14 Day TC Track and Intensity Guidance

• Seeking funding for stretch goals

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Next Steps

• Meet with Committee Chairs today• Identify committee members• ESG approve membership• Initiate committee meetings• Pursue funding for stretch goals• Establish forum for community

awareness and input• Initiate one-on-one outreach meetings

to primary R&D providers

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Questions & Comments

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The NUOPC Partnership• Coordinated technology development for future systems

• Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level

• Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC)

• Prioritization of common operational needs

• Aligned transition processes

• Joint ensemble system with managed diversity

– Share operational computing costs

– Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications

– Significant acceleration in operational performance

• Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group (ESG)

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NUOPC Description

• The NUOPC partnership exists to enable a Tri-Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system

• NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization

• NUOPC is not:– An R&D or acquisition project– A unified management system for operations

or acquisition– A unification of agency missions

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Expectations• NUOPC is an agreement between the three

operational production facilities to improve efficiency through collaboration.

• Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway.

• The secondary objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.

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Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09

Phase I Tasks

Beg

in P

has

e I

I Im

ple

men

tati

on

IOC-1Committees/Panels work tasks

PM & Staff Review

Interagency Review & Coord

Committee Tasks

Decision Brief to Principals StaffESG Approve Standards Draft Standards Reports

Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS

PM & Staff integrate Committee task results

PM & Staff review committees’ progress

Coord

AppointAgencies Appoint Committee Reps

Follow up

Jan 08

Jan 09

May 09

Sep 09

Committee Reports to PM & Staff

Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 08

ESG Approve & Hire PM

SelectJan 08