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Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability
(NUOPC)
Fred Toepfer, NUOPC PM
May 29, 2008
NUOPC
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Purpose
• Brief review of NUOPC back ground & goals
• Status
• Next Steps
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NUOPC Background
• 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP
• 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area
• 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC– Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007– Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and
Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84)
• 2008 – Appointed Project Manager– Executing NUOPC Phase I– ESG approved interim committee chairmen– Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008
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NUOPC Vision (2015)
• Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs
• National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF)
• Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble
– Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather
– Mission Specific ensemble products• National global NWP research agenda to
accelerate science and technology infusion
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NUOPC Implementation ScheduleFY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Prelim Phase I
Implementation Phase II FOC
Beta Test Phase III
STAFFING
CODE CONV.
MGMT REPORTG MOA
INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION
OPERATIONS
OUTREACH
MAINTAIN
Full Staff
Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC
ENS OPS TESTCONOPS, COMMS, IA
DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP
FOC
Quarterly Updates to Principals
STANDARDS
PARTICIPATION
TT PM, TEMPS
IOC-2IOC-1
PROTOTYPE OPS
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Status
• PM appointed• Rest of staff being acquired – DPM, etc.• IOC-1 Redefined
– Delivering NAEFS w/FNMOC Participation– Pursuing funding for three stretch goals
• Definition of NUOPC – Three interim committees being formed– Chairmen of committees approved– Membership being fleshed out
• Meeting with committee chairs today
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Info & Outreach Briefings
• COPC (November 15, 2007)• AMS (Jan 22, 2008, New Orleans)• NOAA/NCEP (March 13, 2008)• Navy/FNMOC (April 2, 2008)• Stakeholders - R&D Community (29 April 2008, ONR)
– NASA– FAA– OFCM– NOAA/OAR/NCEP/EMC/NODC– ONR/NRL– NCAR– DoD
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Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis
Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis
Navy(CNO N84)
RADM Gove
Navy(CNO N84)
RADM Gove
NOAA(Administrator)
VADM Lautenbacher
NOAA(Administrator)
VADM Lautenbacher
Executive Steering GroupExecutive Steering Group
NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD
NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD
LtCol Bruce LambertBrian Moore
LtCol Bruce LambertBrian Moore
Kim CurrySteve PayneKim Curry
Steve Payne
Joel ClineJeremy Potter
Joel ClineJeremy Potter
Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)
Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)
Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC)Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) &
RDML David Titley (CNMOC)
Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) &
Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)
TechnologyTransition
TechnologyTransition
AgencyLiaisonsAgencyLiaisons
InterimCommittees
InterimCommittees
CommonModel Architecture
CommonModel Architecture
UnifiedEnsemble Operations
UnifiedEnsemble Operations
NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley
NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley
NUOPC Management Structure
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Interim Committee Process
• Common Model Architecture– to facilitate accelerated transition and sharing of
technological advances• Technology Transition Process
– Common process and DTC to accelerate transition of internal and external research
– Coordinated research investment to address common operational needs
• Unified Ensemble Operations– Shared processing burden, coordinated
schedules, coordinated post-processing
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Committee Goals• Minimize operational center disruption• Achieve common architecture objectives while
sustaining developmental headway• Achieve full stakeholder support• Develop well-defined standards that will focus
research community participation and accelerate development
• Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology
• Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)
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IOC-1 Status
• NAEFS Implementation on Track– FNMOC ensembles flowing to NCEP since 1 April – Represents base IOC-1
• IOC-1 Stretch Goals Defined– Ensemble-based Ceiling & Visibility Product– Joint Wind-Seas Product– TC Track Uncertainty Guidance– 6 to14 Day TC Track and Intensity Guidance
• Seeking funding for stretch goals
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Next Steps
• Meet with Committee Chairs today• Identify committee members• ESG approve membership• Initiate committee meetings• Pursue funding for stretch goals• Establish forum for community
awareness and input• Initiate one-on-one outreach meetings
to primary R&D providers
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Questions & Comments
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The NUOPC Partnership• Coordinated technology development for future systems
• Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level
• Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC)
• Prioritization of common operational needs
• Aligned transition processes
• Joint ensemble system with managed diversity
– Share operational computing costs
– Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications
– Significant acceleration in operational performance
• Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group (ESG)
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NUOPC Description
• The NUOPC partnership exists to enable a Tri-Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system
• NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization
• NUOPC is not:– An R&D or acquisition project– A unified management system for operations
or acquisition– A unification of agency missions
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Expectations• NUOPC is an agreement between the three
operational production facilities to improve efficiency through collaboration.
• Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway.
• The secondary objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.
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Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09
Phase I Tasks
Beg
in P
has
e I
I Im
ple
men
tati
on
IOC-1Committees/Panels work tasks
PM & Staff Review
Interagency Review & Coord
Committee Tasks
Decision Brief to Principals StaffESG Approve Standards Draft Standards Reports
Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS
PM & Staff integrate Committee task results
PM & Staff review committees’ progress
Coord
AppointAgencies Appoint Committee Reps
Follow up
Jan 08
Jan 09
May 09
Sep 09
Committee Reports to PM & Staff
Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 08
ESG Approve & Hire PM
SelectJan 08
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