IEA© OECD/IEA 2018

The Future of CoolingOpportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning

Mel Slade

Energy Efficiency Division

© OECD/IEA 2018

Asia is becoming the centre of the global energy system

Southeast Asia, India and China are the engine of future energy demand growth,

together accounting for almost 60% of the global increase to 2040.

Change in primary energy demand to 2040 (Mtoe)

1 005

India 420

SoutheastAsia

790China

United States-30

Japan-50

Europe-280

320Latin

America

485

Africa

135

Eurasia

485MiddleEast

Share of global growth 2016-2040

11%

21%

26%

13%

13%

8%

3% 5%

Southeast Asia

China

India

Middle East

Africa

Latin AmericaEurasia

Other

Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2018

Cooling is outpacing all other energy end-uses in buildings

Without action to address energy efficiency, energy demand for space cooling will consume

nearly 40% of electricity growth in buildings and more than 20% of global electricity growth.

Share of final electricity demand growth in buildings to 2050

Space cooling37%

Appliances26%

Lighting8%

Heating12%

Other services17%

© OECD/IEA 2018

Air conditioning is the next big thing

• Global population growth is strongest in hot countries, where keeping

cool is important

• As they become able to afford them, billions more people will buy and

use air conditioners

• The potential implications for energy systems are huge

• The new report outlines those implications, and also shows how, led by

energy efficiency, the future of space cooling can be more sustainable

© OECD/IEA 2018

Most homes in hot countries have not yet purchased their first AC

Air conditioning today is concentrated in a small number of countries,

but AC sales are rising rapidly in emerging economies.

Percentage of households that have AC today

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Japan UnitedStates

Korea SaudiArabia

China Brazil Mexico Indonesia South Africa India

Sha

re o

f hou

seho

lds

with

AC

© OECD/IEA 2018

The world faces a ‘cold crunch’

By 2050, around 2/3 of the world’s households could have an air conditioner

China, India and Indonesia would together account for half of the total number

Global air conditioner stock

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Bill

ion

units

Rest of world

Middle East

Mexico

Brazil

Indonesia

India

China

United States

© OECD/IEA 2018

Consumers are not buying the most efficient ACs

The average efficiency of air conditioners sold today is less than half of what is

typically available on the shelves – and one third of best available technology

Energy performance of air conditioners already available in markets today

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Europe Japan Korea China United States Singapore Canada India Saudi Arabia

Effi

cien

cy

Available equipment Market average

© OECD/IEA 2018

Efficient ACs can halve future energy demand

Our Efficient Cooling Scenario shows that effective policies can double average AC efficiency,

reducing cooling electricity demand by more than all the electricity consumed by the European Union today

Space cooling energy demand growth and savings potential

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh

Baseline Scenario

Efficient Cooling Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2018

Cooling is a key issue for peak electricity demand

Cooling demand growth will drive up peak electricity loads everywhere,

but efficient air conditioners can halve the impact.

Share of cooling in electricity system peak loads

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

United States China Korea Middle East Indonesia India Mexico Brazil

Sha

re in

pea

k el

ectr

icity

load

2016 2050 Baseline Scenario 2050 Efficient Cooling Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2018

Efficient ACs reduce investment, fuel and operating costs

The Efficient Cooling Scenario reduces investment and running costs by USD 3 trillion

between now and 2050. Average cooling energy costs would be almost halved.

Cumulative investments in power

generation for space cooling to 2050

Global average electricity costs per capita

for space cooling in 2050

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Baseline Scenario Efficient Cooling Scenario

Bill

ion

US

D

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Baseline Scenario Efficient Cooling Scenario

US

D p

er p

erso

n

© OECD/IEA 2018

More efficient ACs will help cut emissions

More efficient ACs cut CO2 emissions from space cooling in half and combined with cleaner power

sources can radically reduce overall emissions. Local air pollution is also drastically cut.

Contribution of more efficient space cooling to reducing CO2 emissions

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2016 2050 BaselineScenario

Efficient ACs Decarbonising power 2050 EfficientCooling Scenario

MtCO2

Rest of world

Mexico

Middle East

United States

China

Indonesia

India

© OECD/IEA 2018

It is possible to meet cooling needs efficiently and sustainably

• The global demand for AC cooling is set to soar and without firm

policy interventions so will cooling-related energy demand.

• This risks huge negative impacts on electricity systems, costs and

emissions

• The easiest, fastest and most effective action is to ensure all new ACs

are very efficient.

• This will halve cooling energy demand growth and if coupled with

efficient buildings, growth could be kept completely flat.

• The IEA is ready to support global action to ensure a sustainable

cooling outcome.