Texas Economy Review June-2010

8/9/2019 Texas Economy Review June-2010

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By Ali Anari, Research Economist

Mark G. Dotzour, Chief Economist

TRT E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

J U N E 2 0 1 0

1 8 6 2

AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

MonthlyonthlyRevieweviewof thef theTexasexasEconomyconomy


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Monthly Review of the Texas Economy June 2010

By Ali Anari and Mark G. Dotzour

Texas is coming out of the Great Recession and leading the United States in the currentU-shaped economic recovery (Figure 1). After 16 months of job losses, the states annual

employment growth rate turned positive and posted an annual employment growth rate of0.2 percent for the period from May 2009 to May 2010. The nations rate of job losseshas decreased from 4 percent in August 2009 to 0.4 percent in May 2010 (Figure 1 and

Table 1).

The states seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 7.5 percent in May 2009 to8.3 percent in May 2010, while the U.S. rate rose from 9.4 percent to 9.7 percent during

that period (Table 1).

Table 2 shows Texas industries ranked by employment growth rate from May 2009 to

May 2010. Table 3 shows the relative importance of the states industries based on

number of employees.

Five Texas industries education and health services, mining and logging, otherservices, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and the

government sector had more jobs in May 2010 than in May 2009. Six other industries

experienced net job losses over the same period.

The states education and health services industry added 59,500 jobs from May 2009 to

May 2010, an annual growth rate of 4.5 percent (Table 2 and Figure 2). In this industry,

the health care and social assistance industry gained 52,900 jobs while educationalservices added 6,600 jobs.

After 15 months of job losses, the states mining and logging industry posted an annualemployment growth rate of 4.3 percent for the period from May 2009 to May 2010

(Table 2 and Figure 3). The average number of active rotary rigs has increased from

346.8 in June 2009 to 700.8 in June 2010 according to Hughes Tool Co.

The states government sector added 35,100 jobs from May 2009 to May 2010, an annual

growth rate of 1.9 percent (Table 2 and Figure 4). Government job gains consisted of

22,800 in local government, 3,600 in state government and 8,700 in federal government.

The other services industry (repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services,

religious, civic and professional organizations) gained 4,800 jobs over the year, a 1.3percent increase (Table 2 and Figure 5).

The states leisure and hospitality industry (arts, entertainment, recreation,accommodations and food services) gained 10,600 jobs from May 2009 to May 2010, a

one percent annual growth rate (Table 2 and Figure 6).

After 17 months of job losses, the states professional and business services industry

gained 1,500 jobs from May 2009 to May 2010, an annual growth rate of 0.1 percent


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(Table 2 and Figure 7). The states administrative and support services industry and themanagement of companies and enterprises industry gained 9,500 and 1,500 jobs,

respectively, while professional, scientific and technical services lost 9,500 jobs.

The states transportation, warehousing and utilities industry lost 2,400 jobs over the

year, a 0.6 percent rate of decline (Table 2 and Figure 8). Transportation and

warehousing lost 3,300 jobs while the states utilities industry gained 900 jobs.

The states trade industry lost 10,100 jobs from May 2009 to May 2010, a 0.6 percent

annual rate of decline (Table 2 and Figure 9). The states wholesale trade industry lost

16,300 jobs while the states retail trade gained 6,200 jobs. Trade is the states largestindustry after government, accounting for 15.7 percent of nonfarm employment (Table

3).

Financial activities (finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing services) lost 6,900

jobs from May 2009 to May 2010, an annual rate decline of 1.1 percent (Table 2 and

Figure 10). In this industry, finance and insurance lost 1,600 jobs while real estate, rental

and leasing lost 5,300 jobs.

The states manufacturing industry lost 14,900 jobs from May 2009 to May 2010, a ratedecrease of 1.8 percent (Table 2 and Figure 11). Durable goods manufacturing lost

21,600 jobs while nondurable goods manufacturing gained 6,700 jobs. Major job losses

in the states durable goods manufacturing industry were in machinery manufacturing

(5,100), computer and electronic product manufacturing (3,600 jobs), nonmetallicmineral product manufacturing (3,800), furniture and related product manufacturing

(2,700), wood products (1,800 jobs), electric equipment, appliance, and componentmanufacturing (1,000), primary metal manufacturing (700 jobs), transportation

equipment manufacturing (900 jobs) and fabricated metal product manufacturing (400

jobs). Major job losses in the states nondurable manufacturing industry were in printingand related support manufacturing (3,200 jobs), plastic and rubber manufacturing (3,500

jobs), paper manufacturing (1,000 jobs) and chemical manufacturing industry (3,400

jobs). Major job gains in the states nondurable manufacturing were in foodmanufacturing (1,400 jobs), and petroleum and coal products manufacturing (400 jobs).

The states information industry (internet service providers, web search portals,publishing industries, broadcasting and telecommunications) lost 15,300 jobs from May

2009 to May 2010, a 7.4 percent rate decrease (Table 2 and Figure 12).

The states construction industry lost 46,500 jobs from May 2009 to May 2010, a 7.7

percent rate decrease (Table 2 and Figure 13). Jobs lost consisted of 13,200 jobs in heavyand civil engineering construction, 23,300 jobs in specialty trade contractors and 10,000

in construction of buildings.

Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Thirteen Texas metro areas experienced positive employment growth rates from May

2009 to May 2010, up from seven for the period from March 2009 to March 2010 (Table


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4). College Station-Bryan ranked first in job creation followed by San Angelo, Waco,Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (Table 4).

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos is leading major Texas metropolitan areas in the currenteconomic recovery and experienced its second month of job gains (Figure 14). The metro

areas annual employment growth rate from May 2009 to May 2010 was 0.5, ranking it

9th in employment growth rate (Table 4).

After 19 months of job losses, the Dallas-Plano-Irving metro areas annual employment

growth rate turned positive in May 2010 and for the period from May 2009 to May 2010

was 0.3 percent (Table 4 and Figure 15). The metro area ranked 11th

in employmentgrowth rate (Table 4).

The Fort Worth-Arlington metro areas trough was in September 2009. The annual jobloss rate for the area has decreased from 4 percent at that time to 0.3 percent in May 2010

(Figure 16). The metro area ranked 17th in employment growth rate (Table 4).

The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown metro areas trough occurred in November 2009.The annual job loss rate for the area has decreased from 3.9 percent at that time to 0.9

percent in May 2010, ranking the metro area 19th

in employment growth rate (Table 4and Figure 17).

The San Antonio-New Braunfels metro area hit its trough in August 2009. The annual job

loss rate for the area has decreased from 2.9 percent at that time to 0.9 percent in May2010, placing the metro area 19th in employment growth rate (Table 4 and Figure 18).

The states actual unemployment rate in May 2010 was 8 percent. Amarillo had the

lowest unemployment rate followed by Midland, Lubbock, College Station-Bryan, and

San Angelo (Table 5).

Table 1

Texas and U.S. Labor MarketsChange

Nonfarm employment May 2010 May 2009 Absolute Percent

Texas 10,376,300 10,352,300 24,400 0.2

United States 131,198,000 131,689,000 491,000 0.4

Actual Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate May 2010 May 2009 April 2010 April 2009Texas 8.0 7.3 8.3 7.5

United States 9.3 9.1 9.7 9.4

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics


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Table 4Texas Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Employment Growth Rate,

May 2009 to May 2010

Rank Metro Area Percent Growth Rate

1 College Station-Bryan 3.3

2 San Angelo 2.73 Waco 2.4

4 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood 2.1

5 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 1.6

6 El Paso 0.96 Brownsville-Harlingen 0.9

6 Tyler 0.9

9 Texarkana 0.59 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 0.5

11 Laredo 0.3

11 Lubbock 0.3

11 Dallas-Plano-Irving 0.3Texas 0.2

14 Longview 0.015 Abilene 0.2

15 Corpus Christi 0.2

17 Fort Worth-Arlington 0.3

18 Amarillo 0.519 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 0.9

19 San Antonio-New Braunfels 0.921 Beaumont-Port Arthur 1.0

21 Odessa 1.0

23 Sherman-Denison 1.223 Midland 1.2

23 Victoria 1.2

26 Wichita Falls 1.7Source: Texas Workforce Commission


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Table 5Texas Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Unemployment Rate, May 2010

Rank Metro Area Unemployment Rate, Percent1 Amarillo 5.4

1 Midland 5.4

3 Lubbock 5.74 College Station-Bryan 5.8

5 San Angelo 6.1

6 Abilene 6.3

7 Waco 6.88 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 6.9

9 San Antonio-New Braunfels 7.1

10 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood 7.311 Longview 7.4

11 Texarkana 7.4

13 Tyler 7.5

14 Victoria 7.614 Wichita Falls 7.6

Texas 8.0

16 Corpus Christi 8.0

17 Fort Worth-Arlington 8.1

17 Dallas-Plano-Irving 8.1

19 Odessa 8.220 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 8.3

20 Sherman-Denison 8.322 Laredo 8.5

23 El Paso 9.3

24 Beaumont-Port Arthur 10.625 Brownsville-Harlingen 10.9

26 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 11.2

Source: Texas Workforce Commission


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Figure 1

Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates for United States and Texas, 20072010

-4

0

4

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Texas

U.S.

Percent

Year:Month

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Figure 2Employment Growth Rates in Texas Education and Health Services Industry, 20072010

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0

2

4

6

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month



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Figure 3Employment Growth Rates in Texas Mining and Logging Industry, 20072010

-20

-10

0

10

20

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month


Figure 4

Employment Growth Rates in Texas Government Sector, 20072010

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0

1

2

3

4

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month



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Figure 5Employment Growth Rates in Texas Other Services Industry, 20072010

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-2

0

2

4

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month


Figure 6

Employment Growth Rates in Texas Leisure and Hospitality Industry, 20072010

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0

1

2

3

4

5

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month



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Figure 7Employment Growth Rates in Texas Professional and Business Services Industry, 20072010

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-8

-4

0

4

8

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month


Figure 8

Employment Growth Rates in Texas Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Industry,20072010

-8

-4

0

4

8

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month



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Figure 9Employment Growth Rates in Texas Trade Industry, 20072010

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Year:Month

Percent


Figure 10

Employment Growth Rates in Texas Financial Activities Industry, 20072010

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-2

0

2

4

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month



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Figure 11Employment Growth Rates in Texas Manufacturing Industry, 20072010

-12

-8

-4

0

4

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month


Figure 12

Employment Growth Rates in Texas Information Industry, 20072010

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month



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Figure 13Employment Growth Rates in Texas Construction Industry, 20072010

-20

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0

10

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month


Figure 14

Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, Austin-Round Rock, 20072010

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0

2

4

6

07M 01 07M 07 08M 01 08M 07 09M 01 09M 07 1 0M 01

Percent



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Figure 15Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, Dallas-Plano-Irving, 20072010

-6

-4

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0

2

4

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month


Figure 16

Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, Fort Worth-Arlington, 20072010

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0

2

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07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month



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Figure 17Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, 20072010

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month


Figure 18

Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, San Antonio-New Braunfels, 20072010

-4

-2

0

2

4

07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01

Percent

Year:Month


Texas Economy Review June-2010

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