Technically Speaking - Raymond James

Technically Speaking

Douglas Rowat, Equity Specialist March 19, 2013

Please read disclosure/risk information in Appendix A. Raymond James Ltd. 5300-40 King St W. | Toronto ON Canada M5H 3Y2.

2200-925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2.

Inside This Issue

Process and Methodology ............................ 1

Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-T, $39.44): Fitting To A Tee ............................................. 2

Pason Systems Inc. (PSI-T, $17.38): Channel Surfing .......................................................... 2

Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-T, $32.73): Consolidation Over ....................................... 3

Husky Energy Inc. (HSE-T, $29.95): Double Top ................................................................ 3

Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN-T, $61.60): Board-Walking The Plank?....................................... 4

Raymond James Ltd. Guided Portfolios: Technical Indicators ...................................... 5

Updates ........................................................ 6

Glossary ........................................................ 7

Process and Methodology

Our stock universe will be restricted to S&P/TSX Composite members. Technical outlooks for various commodities may occasionally be included.

Breakouts or breakdowns from well-established uptrends or downtrends will be our focus. We will always look for confirmation of the expected move by examining either the RSI or the MACD, or both. Volume trends and moving averages may also be observed for momentum and trend confirmation.

Traditional technical chart patterns (head-and-shoulders tops and bottoms, ascending and descending triangles, etc.) will be highlighted when applicable.

Support and resistance levels will always be identified. A short- to medium-term timeframe is targeted for completion of technical patterns (3-6 months), but if the move is expected to take longer this will be identified also.

Candlestick pricing will always be used and candlestick patterns will be examined to confirm/indicate trends.

Relative stock performance vs the S&P/TSX Composite will be examined to indicate the potential for stock outperformance of the broader market.

Highlighted stocks will be revisited to update investors on whether the expected technical move has succeeded or failed. In short, these ideas will be consistently monitored.

S&P/TSX Comp: Technical Data S&P/TSX Comp Canadian Volatility

New 52-Week Highs % of S&P/TSX Comp Above 200-Day MA % of S&P/TSX Comp Above 50-Day MA

Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd. Priced March 18, 2013

Current level 12,781.852-wk high 12,904.752-wk low 11,209.6Total return 1 mth (%) 1.0Total return 3 mths (%) 4.4Total return 1 yr (%) 5.5# weekly advancers 140.0# weekly decliners 99.0% new 52-wk highs 9.5% new 52-wk lows 2.5% new 4-wk highs 20.7% new 4-wk lows 9.1% above 200-day MA (%) 70.2% above 50-day MA (%) 59.5% MACD buy signal past 10 days 18.2% MACD sell signal past 10 days 22.3

Technically Speaking March 19, 2013 | of 8

Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-T, $39.44): Fitting To A Tee

Gildan Activewear (GIL-T) has broken up cleanly through resistance at $36.50. The uptrend appears set to continue provided the 100-day MA acts as support and the MACD remains above the centerline (as it has

since June 2012 (circles)). Shares poised to challenge pre-credit crisis highs near $45.00.

Pason Systems Inc. (PSI-T, $17.38): Channel Surfing

Pason Systems (PSI-T) remains in a nice uptrend channel, signalling more potential upside. Shares appear poised to move near term to the upper end of the channel as the MACD is turning (circled). The MACD has consistently

recovered after moving into sharply negative territory. Each MACD ‘bounce’ has signalled a share price rally within the uptrend channel. Near-term upside potential is indicated to $19.00.

A break below the 200-day MA, which coincides with the lower end of the channel, would negate the rally.


Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-T, $32.73): Consolidation Over

After consolidating for the past 18 months and challenging resistance five times, Thomson Reuters (TRI-T) has finally made a clear breakout on higher volume (circled).

Medium to longer term, little resistance exists until $36.00 level, which roughly corresponds to the 62% Fibonacci retracement. The 50-day MA (currently $30.72) is now poised to act as support. A break below this level may signal the end of the rally.

Husky Energy Inc. (HSE-T, $29.95): Double Top

Husky Energy (HSE-T) shares rallied almost 47% from their June 2012 lows to their January 2013 highs. They now appear to be showing signs of technical exhaustion.

Support dating to February 2011 has failed and a double-top reversal formation has emerged. A downtrending RSI and MACD confirm the downside momentum as does the MACD breech of the centerline (circled). Support at the

50-day MA has also failed. 100-day MA may now act as support, but no meaningful support is signalled until $28.00. Any move above $32.00 indicates a reversal

of the downtrend.


Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN-T, $61.60): Board-Walking The Plank?

After more than a year of consolidation, Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN-T) has now moved below support. The 200-day MA, which acted as support during the last extended consolidation in September 2011, has failed. Immediate downside risk appears limited to $59.00; however, a move below this level would be more dangerous. A move up out of the consolidation range would indicate a resumption of the uptrend.


Raymond James Ltd. Guided Portfolios: Technical Indicators

Table gives rough technical picture only. Individual scores are binary. Overall score represents an equally weighted average of the six metrics: higher number the better. Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd. Priced March 18, 2013

MACD Overall

Company Name Sym Price 1 Mo. 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 200-Day 50-Day +/- Score

Canadian Growth

Agrium Inc AGU $103.16 -4.1 6.9 22.4 Y N -0.7 3

Bombardier Inc BBD/B $4.18 3.3 18.5 6.0 Y Y 0.1 6

Cineplex Inc CGX $33.47 0.8 8.9 21.6 Y Y 0.2 6

Cameco Corp CCO $21.64 -0.5 8.8 -3.9 Y Y 0.1 4

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd CNQ $33.31 7.8 18.4 -3.5 Y Y 0.6 5

Canadian Tire Corp Ltd CTC/A $69.62 2.0 0.4 8.9 Y Y 0.1 6

Detour Gold Corp DGC $19.66 -5.4 -17.4 -19.3 N N -0.6 0

Inmet Mining Corp IMN $71.30 1.2 -1.9 23.3 Y Y 0.4 5

Linamar Corp LNR $24.47 -8.7 12.7 18.5 Y N -0.4 3

Open Text Corp OTC $59.47 2.8 6.1 1.3 Y Y 0.7 6

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc POT $41.04 -2.7 3.1 -8.1 N N 0.1 2

Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp PRE $22.23 -8.4 -4.1 -22.7 N N 0.1 1

Sun Life Financial Inc SLF $28.29 -0.8 9.3 28.0 Y N -0.1 3

Toronto-Dominion Bank/The TD $84.53 2.2 3.9 5.0 Y Y 0.4 6

Vermilion Energy Inc VET $51.82 2.0 2.6 11.2 Y Y 0.2 6

Whitecap Resources Inc WCP $9.14 3.6 7.5 0.5 Y N 0.1 5

Yamana Gold Inc YRI $15.06 -0.9 -9.5 -0.7 N N -0.4 0

Canadian Dividend Plus+

AltaGas Ltd ALA $35.63 3.3 6.6 17.0 Y Y 0.3 6

Bank of Nova Scotia BNS $59.84 2.3 5.5 11.6 Y Y 0.4 6

Canadian Apartment Properties REIT CAR-U $25.47 0.9 5.1 20.1 Y Y -0.0 5

Cenovus Energy Inc CVE $32.75 2.6 0.2 -8.9 N N -0.1 2

Corus Entertainment Inc CJR/B $25.83 4.5 10.9 15.0 Y Y 0.2 6

Emera Inc EMA $34.95 0.0 2.7 6.7 Y N -0.0 3

Enbridge Inc ENB $46.57 5.0 10.3 25.9 Y Y 0.5 6

Fortis Inc/Canada FTS $33.27 0.7 -1.3 5.6 N N -0.1 2

Inter Pipeline Fund IPL-U $23.75 3.8 0.3 26.4 Y Y 0.2 6

North West Co Inc/The NWC $23.47 1.4 4.6 15.0 Y Y 0.1 6

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust REI-U $27.00 -1.2 -1.1 5.5 N N 0.0 2

Rogers Communications Inc RCI/B $49.99 6.6 13.2 34.5 Y Y 0.9 6

Royal Bank of Canada RY $61.20 -3.3 3.2 9.9 Y N -0.2 3

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp SC $42.50 0.6 1.0 4.9 Y Y 0.1 6

TELUS Corp T $69.41 3.3 7.6 26.2 Y Y 0.5 6

Global Equity

Apple Inc AAPL $455.72 -1.0 -14.2 -21.0 N N -9.6 0

Aflac Inc AFL $50.22 1.8 -7.4 10.3 Y N -0.0 3

Bank of America Corp BAC $12.56 4.5 10.7 28.7 Y Y 0.2 6

BioMed Realty Trust Inc BMR $21.87 3.1 16.5 19.8 Y Y 0.3 6

Brunswick Corp/DE BC $33.99 -6.5 24.9 29.5 Y N -0.0 3

Bunge Ltd BG $75.38 0.6 3.8 12.6 Y N 0.2 5

BNP Paribas SA BNPQY $27.40 -10.7 -6.1 12.1 Y N -0.3 2

Cummins Inc CMI $116.31 -2.0 7.5 -7.1 Y Y 0.8 4

Deere & Co DE $91.82 2.3 6.3 12.9 Y Y 0.4 6

DR Horton Inc DHI $24.25 2.5 20.8 53.4 Y Y 0.5 6

Delphi Automotive PLC DLPH $42.79 7.5 24.7 34.2 Y Y 1.2 6

Linear Technology Corp LLTC $37.24 -1.8 8.4 13.7 Y Y 0.3 5

Eli Lil ly & Co LLY $54.66 2.0 11.4 41.9 Y Y 0.5 6

Merck & Co Inc MRK $43.63 6.4 -0.4 19.4 Y Y 0.5 5

NXP Semiconductor NV NXPI $29.72 -7.8 14.4 13.1 Y N 0.2 4

QUALCOMM Inc QCOM $64.56 -1.0 2.3 0.3 Y N 0.3 4

Wipro Ltd WIT $9.96 8.3 14.9 -7.9 Y Y 0.2 5

Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT $72.25 4.9 4.6 21.6 Y Y 0.8 6

Price Above Moving AverageTotal Return (%)


Updates

Company Ticker Date

highlighted Date closed Comments

Closing off?*

Bullish Trend

Alimentation Couche Tard Inc. ATD’B 02/12/2013 Uptrend intact.

Bonterra Energy Corp. BNE 02/26/2013 Uptrend intact.

Cameco Corp CCO 01/23/2013 Uptrend intact.

Crescent Point Energy CPG 01/23/2013 Uptrend intact.

Finning International Inc. FTT 01/11/2013 Uptrend at risk but still intact.

Genivar Inc. GNV 01/23/2013 Uptrend intact.

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. MFI 03/05/2013 Uptrend intact.

Pacific Rubiales Energy PRE 02/12/2013 Recent gap down, moving averages failing to act as support. Y

Precision Drilling Corp PD 02/12/2013 Uptrend at risk but still intact.

Teck Resources Ltd. TCK’B 01/11/2013 02/12/2013

Trican Well Service TCW 02/26/2013 Uptrend intact.

Uranium One Inc. UUU 01/11/2013 01/23/2013

Bearish Trend

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM 01/11/2013 02/26/2013

Argonaut Gold Inc. AR 02/26/2013 Downtrend at risk but still intact.

Dollarama Inc. DOL 01/23/2013 Caution regarding a correction continues to be warranted.

Endeavour Silver Corp EDR 03/05/2013 Downtrend at risk but still intact.

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. FM 03/05/2013 Moving averages failing to act as resistance, MACD has moved above centerline. Y

Reitmans Canada Ltd. RET’A 02/26/2013 Downtrend intact.

Tourmaline Oil Corp TOU 01/11/2013 01/23/2013

WestJet Airlines Ltd. WJA 02/12/2013 03/05/2013

* Indicates technical pattern has completed or trend direction has changed or is unclear. Source: Bloomberg


Glossary

Ascending Triangle A continuation pattern where the period of consolidation takes the shape of an upward sloping triangle with an ascending lower trendline. A break down through the support trendline can sometimes mark a reversal pattern. Bollinger Bands Bollinger bands gauge a security’s trading activity and trend by showing a range of normal price swings. Candlestick Chart A graphical representation of prices where opening and closing prices are connected to form coloured boxes. Generally, a series of dark candlesticks suggest downside momentum and light candlesticks upside momentum. Continuation Pattern A chart formation that signals the continuation of the prevailing trend. Continuation patterns often occur after a period of brief consolidation. Descending Triangle A continuation pattern where the period of consolidation takes the shape of a downward sloping triangle with a declining upper resistance trendline. A break up through the resistance trendline can sometimes mark a reversal pattern. Double Bottom Chart formation that normally occurs after an extended downtrend and resembles a W. Double bottoms signal potential price reversals. Double Top Chart formation that normally occurs after an extended uptrend and resembles an M. Double tops signal potential price reversals. Fibonacci Sequences Mathematical relationships that help predict points of support or resistance. The key Fibonacci ratio is 61.8% also referred to as "the golden ratio" or "the golden mean". Flag A chart formation in which prices move sharply to create a near vertical line (the flag pole) followed by a small move in the opposite direction (the flag). Flags are often continuation patterns. Gap An open space on a chart. A gap is created when the low of one time period is above the high of the previous period, or the high of one time period is below the low of the previous period. Gaps can signal breakouts or continuations of up or down trends. Head-and-Shoulders Formation A reversal chart formation that looks like a head and shoulders (with both a defined left and right shoulder). Head-and-shoulders formations can occur at both the bottom and top of a trend. MACD The moving average convergence/divergence determines turning points in a trend by differencing two exponential moving averages of specific periods. The trendline of the MACD can also signal continuation or reversal trends for share prices. Moving Average A statistical tool that plots smoothed prices to signal future price trends. 50-day and 200-day moving averages are the most common indicators. Resistance level A technical level that prices may have trouble rising above (i.e., where the price may experience selling pressure).


Rounded Bottom A bullish reversal pattern taking the shape of a U. Ideally, the rounded bottom should be accompanied by a similar volume pattern. RSI The relative strength index measures the velocity of directional price movements with extreme values indicating overbought and oversold conditions. The trendline of the RSI can also signal continuation or reversal trends for share prices. Support Level A technical level that prices may have trouble falling below (i.e., where the price should have buying support). Trendline A line connecting a series of ascending lows (in the case of an up trendline) or descending highs (in the case of a down trendline).

Appendix A

Important Investor Disclosures

A member of the PCS team responsible for preparation of this document or a member of his/her household has a long position in the securities of Corus Entertainment Inc. (CJR.B‐T), Enbridge Inc. (ENB‐T), Royal Bank of Canada (RY‐T), North West Co (NWC-T), Vermilion Energy Inc (VET-T), Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T), Potash Corporation (POT-T), Sun Life Financial (SLF-T) and Fortis Inc. (FTS‐T).

Complete disclosures for companies covered by Raymond James can be viewed at: www.raymondjames.ca/researchdisclosures.

Raymond James Ltd. (RJL) Private Client Solution group prepared this newsletter. The views expressed are those of Private Client Solutions and may differ from fundamental research views. These opinions are based on historical technical data and the expectation of the most probable direction of a security or market. This outcome is not guaranteed. This newsletter does not constitute research coverage of any company and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

Information is from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is for informational purposes only. It is not meant to provide legal or tax advice; as each situation is different, individuals should seek advice based on their circumstances. Nor is it an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. It is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where RJL is registered. This report is made widely available at the same time to all RJL Financial Advisers and is not posted to any publicly available website. RJL, its officers, directors, agents, employees and families may from time to time hold long or short positions in the securities mentioned herein and may engage in transactions contrary to the conclusions in this newsletter. RJL may perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking business from, any company mentioned in this newsletter. Securities offered through Raymond James Ltd., Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Financial planning and insurance offered through Raymond James Financial Planning Ltd., not a Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Clients can also access our research at Raymond James.ca, if you do not have an account, please contact your advisor.

RJL is a member of Canadian Investor Protection Fund. ©2012 Raymond James Ltd.

Technically Speaking - Raymond James

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