Systems Dynamics and Systems Dynamics and EquilibriumEquilibrium

Dr. Fred Mugambi MwirigiDr. Fred Mugambi Mwirigi

JKUATJKUAT

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What is a System?What is a System?

A group of interacting, interrelated, and A group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent elements forming a interdependent elements forming a complex wholecomplex whole

A configuration of parts connected and A configuration of parts connected and joined together by a web of relationshipsjoined together by a web of relationships

The whole is different from, and greater The whole is different from, and greater than, the sum of its partsthan, the sum of its parts

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Parts of an Elephant

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Systems ThinkingSystems Thinking

A way of understanding reality that A way of understanding reality that emphasizes the relationships among a emphasizes the relationships among a system’s parts, rather than the parts system’s parts, rather than the parts themselves.themselves.

Concerned about interrelationships Concerned about interrelationships among parts and their relationship to a among parts and their relationship to a functioning wholefunctioning whole

Sees underlying patterns and structuresSees underlying patterns and structures

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Foundations of Systems TheoryFoundations of Systems TheoryCybernetics: system feedback, Cybernetics: system feedback,

information; differences (that make a information; differences (that make a difference); human – machine analogy; difference); human – machine analogy; inclusion of the observer and the inclusion of the observer and the observed in the systemobserved in the system

General systems theory: open systems; General systems theory: open systems; system integrity; nested system hierarchy, system integrity; nested system hierarchy, boundaries, webs, emergence (sum boundaries, webs, emergence (sum greater than parts)greater than parts)

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Systems TheoriesSystems Theories

Soft and critical systems: human systems Soft and critical systems: human systems - multiple perspectives, power issues, - multiple perspectives, power issues, intractable problems without simple intractable problems without simple solutionssolutions

Systems dynamics: systems have Systems dynamics: systems have reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, circularity, system archetypes, mental circularity, system archetypes, mental models, unintended consequencesmodels, unintended consequences

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More Systems TheoriesMore Systems Theories

Complexity theory: complex adaptive Complexity theory: complex adaptive systems; semi-independent, interacting systems; semi-independent, interacting agents; self-organization; emergence; agents; self-organization; emergence; nonlinearity; co-evolution; past is nonlinearity; co-evolution; past is irreversible; future is unpredictableirreversible; future is unpredictable

Learning systems: the way that people Learning systems: the way that people learn and the systems in which they learnlearn and the systems in which they learn

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System BoundariesSystem Boundaries

Shows what is inside and outside of the Shows what is inside and outside of the systemsystemGeographical (location) Geographical (location) Organization (department, unit or function)Organization (department, unit or function)Physical (money, material, information)Physical (money, material, information)Conceptual (goals, mission, purpose, rules)Conceptual (goals, mission, purpose, rules) Intangibles (perceptions, awareness, models)Intangibles (perceptions, awareness, models)Natural or man-madeNatural or man-made

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System Relationships System Relationships (Interconnections)(Interconnections)

Connections and exchanges among Connections and exchanges among system parts, parts and the whole, and system parts, parts and the whole, and the whole and its environmentthe whole and its environmentFlows of informationFlows of informationFlows of fundingFlows of fundingClient referralsClient referralsCollaborative partnershipsCollaborative partnershipsFamily, community, and social networksFamily, community, and social networks

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System PerspectivesSystem Perspectives

Stakeholders’ worldviews and purposesStakeholders’ worldviews and purposesSystem agents who have different System agents who have different

perspectives may pursue different perspectives may pursue different purposes within a given situationpurposes within a given situation

Patterns of (mis)alignment of purposes Patterns of (mis)alignment of purposes and processes within and across system and processes within and across system levelslevels

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System Change System Change

System differences generate creative System differences generate creative tension or energy within a system tension or energy within a system

Positive or negative, energy provides Positive or negative, energy provides potential for system changepotential for system change

System change: shifts in patterns System change: shifts in patterns (similarities and differences) of system (similarities and differences) of system relationships, boundaries, focus, timing, relationships, boundaries, focus, timing, events and behaviors over time and space events and behaviors over time and space

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System DynamicsSystem Dynamics

Random (unorganized)Random (unorganized)Organized (simple or complicated)Organized (simple or complicated)Adaptive (organic, self-organizing)Adaptive (organic, self-organizing)All three system dynamics can be present All three system dynamics can be present

in a complex situationin a complex situation

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Random System AttributesRandom System Attributes

Random activity – no patternRandom activity – no patternUnconnected collection of partsUnconnected collection of partsNo cause-effect relationshipsNo cause-effect relationshipsTurbulence – no stability or equilibriumTurbulence – no stability or equilibriumAnswers are unknowable Answers are unknowable No purpose or direction – people react No purpose or direction – people react

blindly in a war zone or natural disasterblindly in a war zone or natural disaster

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Random System: Hurricane Katrina

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Organized (Simple) System Organized (Simple) System AttributesAttributes

Stable, static patternStable, static pattern Parts tightly connected machines Parts tightly connected machines Predictable cause-effect relationshipsPredictable cause-effect relationships System can be reduced to parts and System can be reduced to parts and

processes and replicatedprocesses and replicated Directive leadership, designed changeDirective leadership, designed change Answers are knowable, with recipes or Answers are knowable, with recipes or

prescriptions for actionprescriptions for action

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Single Organized System: Ring-Around the Rosie

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Simple Organized System:Riding a Bicycle

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Organized (Complicated) System Organized (Complicated) System AttributesAttributes

Dynamic patterns of feedback loops with Dynamic patterns of feedback loops with many interrelated parts within and across many interrelated parts within and across subsystem levelssubsystem levels

Recursive, non-linear cause-effect Recursive, non-linear cause-effect relationships; reinforcing and balancing relationships; reinforcing and balancing feedback loops maintain equilibriumfeedback loops maintain equilibrium

Expert analysis can identify causal loops, Expert analysis can identify causal loops, deep structural causes to actionsdeep structural causes to actions

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Adaptive (Complex) System Adaptive (Complex) System AttributesAttributes

Dynamical patterns – parts adapting, co-Dynamical patterns – parts adapting, co-evolving with each other and environmentevolving with each other and environment

Parts are massively entangled and Parts are massively entangled and interdependent; nested webs, networksinterdependent; nested webs, networks

Parts self-organize, learn, and changeParts self-organize, learn, and changeEquilibrium in flux, sensitive to initial Equilibrium in flux, sensitive to initial

conditions; system change emerges conditions; system change emerges through interactions among parts through interactions among parts

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Ecological View of an Elephant

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Complex InterdependenciesComplex Interdependencies

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Alignment of Context, Program, Alignment of Context, Program, and Evaluation Dynamics and Evaluation Dynamics

Context can be random, organized, Context can be random, organized, adaptive, or combination of dynamics adaptive, or combination of dynamics

Program design uses random, organized Program design uses random, organized (entity-based), or adaptive (paradigm-(entity-based), or adaptive (paradigm-based) or a combination of dynamicsbased) or a combination of dynamics

Evaluation design (content and process) Evaluation design (content and process) can be entity-focused (organized), can be entity-focused (organized), paradigm-focused (adaptive) or a paradigm-focused (adaptive) or a combination of bothcombination of both

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Three Dynamics of a Social System and its Context

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Match of Evaluation Designs to Dynamics Match of Evaluation Designs to Dynamics of Social Systems and Their Contextof Social Systems and Their Context

Exploratory Design

Predictive Design

Initi

ative

Ren

ewal

Des

ign

Organic Design

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Complex Adaptive Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive (Self-organizing) Adaptive (Self-organizing)

DynamicsDynamics1.1. Self-organizing/adaptive/organicSelf-organizing/adaptive/organic

2.2. Sensitivity to initial conditionsSensitivity to initial conditions

3.3. EmergenceEmergence

4.4. Macro patternMacro pattern

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Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive (Self-organizing) Dynamics (cont.)(Self-organizing) Dynamics (cont.)

5.5. FeedbackFeedback

6.6. Co-evolutionCo-evolution

7.7. Pattern formation and points of influencePattern formation and points of influence

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Implications for Evaluation and ActionImplications for Evaluation and Action

1.1. Small differences can create large Small differences can create large effects.effects.

2.2. The past influences but does not predict The past influences but does not predict the future.the future.

3.3. Many points of influence exist.Many points of influence exist.

4.4. Boundaries, differences, and Boundaries, differences, and relationships are levers of influence relationships are levers of influence toward a purpose.toward a purpose.

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Implications for Evaluation and ActionImplications for Evaluation and Action

5.5. Simple rules underlie patterns.Simple rules underlie patterns.

6.6. Pattern-based feedback and actions are Pattern-based feedback and actions are iterative.iterative.

7.7. Tensions are not resolved.Tensions are not resolved.

8.8. Patterns are outcomes.Patterns are outcomes.

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Four Stages of EvaluationFour Stages of Evaluation

Design Evaluation

Shape Practice Collect Data

Make Meaning from Data

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End End

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