SUSTRUS: TML tasks Christophe Heyndrickx [email protected]
-
Upload
daniel-sampson -
Category
Documents
-
view
29 -
download
1
description
Transcript of SUSTRUS: TML tasks Christophe Heyndrickx [email protected]
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 2
Outline
• Introduction to TML• TML in the SUSTRUS project• Experience in model construction• Policy indicators• Linking the three dimensions of
sustainability
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 3
Outline
• Introduction to TML• Experience in model construction• Policy indicators• Linking the three dimensions of
sustainability
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 4
Introduction to TML• Transport and Mobility Leuven• ° 14th February 2002• Multidisciplinary Team (13 employees):
– Civil Engineers– Economists– Environmentalists– Computer Scientists– Urban Planners
• General Manager: Griet De Ceuster• 50 % of shares University of Leuven, other
50 % are held by TNO
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 5
Introduction to TML• Quantitative modelling• Supporting Government Policy (European commission, national and regional
governments, lobby groups)
• Domains of Expertise– Transport Economics– Traffic Engineering– Transport Analysis– Environment– Logistics– Spatial Economics
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 6
TML in SUSTRUS
• Preparation of the proposal• WP3: model methodology, model
callibration and construction• WP4: determining valuable economic
indicators, implementation of policy assessment framework
• WP6: construction of the international module
• WP8: integration of the international module, the social module and the environmental module into the general structure
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 7
Outline
• Introduction to TML• Experience in model construction• Policy indicators• Linking the three dimensions of
sustainability
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 8
Model constructionModels developed and used by TML
Transport economic models-TREMOVE: Road transport and emissions (partial
equilibrium model)
General equilibrium models-EDIP: general equilibrium model for 31 European
countries, modeling road transport, emissions, social policies and inequality in detail
Regional general equilibrium models-RAEM: regional equilibrium model for the Netherlands -ISEEM : regional equilibrium model for Belgium (similar
to RAEM)
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 9
RAEM model• 15 commodities and 15 production sectors (1 sector,
1 product)• 17 production factors (commodities + labour +
capital)• Leontief in value added and intermediate inputs• Capital and labour are mobile among sectors• Small-open economy assumption (Armington)• Government sector with Federal and Local levels,
collects different taxes and makes transfers (Cobb-Douglas utility function)
• Migration between regions according to generation distribution function
• Trips (business, shopping, other, education) according to generation distribution function
• Commuting trips according to attraction function (based on work of Mark Thissen on RAEM 2.0)
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 10
ISEEM model• Similar to RAEM, but extended with new elements• 26 sectors and 26 commodities (dropped 1 sector-1
product assumption)• 30 production factors: capital, labour, land and
buildings• Wage bargaining on labor market (national level),
combined with Pissarides approach• Emissions per sector in different industries, services
sectors and residential sector• Welfare of households associated with emissions and
pollution• Energy inputs are explicitly modelled: difference
between fossile fuels (coal, oil and gas) and other energy inputs
• Construction sector and land use• Innovation and R&D
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 11
EDIP model• 31 European countries (EU27 + NO + HR + SE + TR)• 60 sectors and related commodities• 62 production factors (commodities + land + capital)• Detailed modeling of the transport sector and energy
sector• Emissions by sector and by energy type (coal/oil/gas)• Detailed labour market modelling: different household
types, with different occupations and educations.
But, not a regional model !
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 12
Model methodology and construction• Some basis can be provided by ISEEM, RAEM and
EDIP models, applied to Russian datasets and the literature review worked out in WP1
• RAEM/ISEEM : regional equilibrium modelling + EDIP: more attention to social policies and environment
• Amount of sectors remains to be specified, sufficient detail will be necessary for sustainability issues.
• In the Russian context we will have to put more attention to land use and natural resources
• Modelling of the labour market, commuting, transport trips should be simplified
• More attention to dynamic part of the model
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 13
sec1 Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries
sec2 Mining and Quarrying
sec3 Manufacturing of Food, Drinks, Tobacco
sec4 Manufacturing of Clothing and Footwear
sec5 Manufacturing of Wood Products
sec6 Manufacturing of Paper and Print Media
sec7 Manufacturing of Cokes, Refined Oil + Other
sec8 Manufacturing of Chemicals, Pharmaceutics
sec9 Manufacturing of Plastics
sec10 Manufacturing of Glass, Ceramics and Building Materials
sec11 Manufacturing of Basic Metal products
sec12 Manufacturing of Machinery
sec13 Manufacturing of Electronical Equipment
sec14 Manufacturing of Transportation Equipment
sec15 Energy, Water Supply
sec16 Construction
sec17 Wholesale and Retail Trade
sec18 Hotels, Restaurants, Cafés
sec19 Transport
sec20 Communication
sec21 Banking and Finance
sec22 Business Services
sec23 Government Services
sec24 Education
sec25 Health
sec26 Leisure Services
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 14
Model construction• Detail depends on collected data, should at least have
the necessary detail to be able to have different energy inputs and model natural resources
• First build a simple model, based on earlier work for Russia and the modelling experience of the partners
• Add the newly constructed environmental, social and international modules on the way
• Focus on aspects that are specific on the chosen regional level
• Sufficient focus on the exogeneous parameters, to balance trade flows, production and consumption, migration, etc…
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 15
Outline
• Introduction to TML• Experience in model construction• Policy indicators• Linking the three dimensions of
sustainability
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 16
Sustainability indicators
The concepts of sustainability indicators1. Toolkits to guide policy makers.2. Foundation for improved information and data collection3. Comparative analysis on national and regional state of
and progress towards sustainable development
Characteristics of an effective indicator1. Quantitative or qualitative measure derived from a series
of observed facts2. Point out the directions of change across different units
and through time 3. Identify trends and draw attention to particular issues. 4. Helpful in setting policy priorities and in benchmarking or
monitoring performance
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 17
Sustainability indicatorsScientific: •Measurable and quantifiable: they should adequately reflect the phenomenon intended to be measured•Meaningful: appropriate to the needs of the user•Clear in value: positive or negative•Clear in content: measure in understandable units
Functional: • Relevant: for all stakeholders involved• Possible to influence: Indicators must measure parameters that may be modified•Comprehensive: the indicator set should sufficiently describe all essential aspects under study
Pragmatic:•Feasible: measurable at reasonable effort and cost
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 18
Sustainability : economic indicatorsBasic indicators• GDP: country, region, sector• Unemployment: country, region, household type• Consumption: per capita, by region, by specific class of
good, by household type • Inflation: changes in price level
Other important indicators• Openness of trade: (exports + imports) / GDP• Trade balance: (exports - imports)/(exports + imports)• FDI: as share of total investments, as share of GDP• Government revenues : on national, regional level + by
government
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 19
Sustainability : enviromental indicators• Emissions and waste: in tonnes (by emission type),
monetary value (damages), as share of GDP, by sector, per capita,
• Resources - Land use: change in land types, land as input to
production- Stocks of oil and gas available: in tonnes, monetary value, share of GDP, etc..- Other resources: forest, minerals, water, etc..
• Other environmental/sustainability indicators: Ecological footprint (CO2 emissions, compared to
available land for sequestration) Environmental pressure index Barometer of sustainability
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 20
Sustainability : social indicators• Welfare: - Equivalent variation: based on utility of the different
consumers, household types• Income inequality
- Gini coefficient: broad indicator for inequality- Atkinson index: set degree of inequality aversion- Theil index or related: easily decomposable in subgroups, on regional level, by household, etc..
• Poverty - Monetary poverty: always based on a pre-defined
poverty line (for example 60% of mean income, or 50% of median income)- 3 I’s of poverty (Incidence, Intensity and Inequality)
• Progressivity of tax schemeKakwani’s index (or variant)
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 21
Outline
• Introduction to TML• Experience in model construction• Policy indicators• Linking the three dimensions of
sustainability
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 22
Linking sustainability indicators• Should we derive a composite indicator for
sustainability?• Experience shows that this is really hard
– Different approaches: ISEW, Genuine Progress, HDI, etc..
– Very difficult to weight different indicators (different results for different weights)
– Often not all variables can be calculated from the model
• Calculate basic indicators that are easy to interpret and can be easily compared to each other
19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 23
Linking sustainability indicators• Which indicators should we certainly use1. GDP2. Unemployment3. Government budget/revenues4. International/interregional trade (openness of trade,
trade balance)5. Welfare of households (equivalent variation or
extended index, more relevant to sustainability)6. Environmental indicator or set of indicators,
focusing on (health) damages from pollution 7. Related to land use (change in land types, land
based production/employment)
Literature review
Will always be in interest of policy makers