SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE
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SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTLOOKING INTO THE FUTURE
David Banister
Transport Studies Unit
School of Geography and the Environment
University of Oxford
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The Big Issues
From John Beddington’s lecture at Oxford University
23rd June 2009
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The New Imperative
Estimates of 390 CO2 ppmv 2009
The Facts – tCO2 2006
Total TransportGlobal 4.37 1.07EU27 9.28 2.53US 19.45 6.80Target 2.00 0.75China 4.07 0.45India 1.07 0.10
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A Pathway to 90% Reduction by 2050
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2080s 50% probability level: central estimate
Change in annual mean temperature (ºC) Medium emissions = +3.5C
Change in summer precipitation (%) Medium emissions = - 21-31%
Change in winter precipitation (%) Medium emissions= +19-21%
UKCIP09 Projections
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Oxford – CO2 emissions by sector (2002) and from transport (2003)
Rajat Gupta (2005) Oxford Climate Change Action Plan, November
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Action at the LTP Level
• Top down – international agreement v bottom up – implementation and action
• Stakeholders and responsibilities – public and private sectors
• Technological optimism and behavioural change – climate change fatigue
• Short term immediacy and longer term speculation
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TRIPSSubstitute or not
make them
DISTANCEShorten trip lengths Land use planning
MODEUse of public
transport, walk and
cycle
EFFICIENCYLoad factors
FuelsEfficiency
Design
Sustainable mobility explores ways of travelling less rather than travelling more, to overcome the problems of capacity, and also to address the environmental imperative.
Sustainable Mobility Paradigm
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1. Reducing the need to travel – substitution
• Trip no longer made – replaced by non travel activity or substituted through technology
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2. Transport Policy Measures – Modal Shift
• Promotion of walk and cycle
• Slowing down of urban traffic
• Demand management
• Investment in public transport
• Flexible use of streets
• No rebound effects
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3. Land Use Policy Measures – Distance Reduction
• Build sustainable mobility into patterns of urban form and layout
• Increase densities and concentration – mixed use developments, housing location
The New Oxford Cancer Centre at the Churchill and Susan Roaf’s Eco Home
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4. Technological Innovation – Efficiency Increase
• Best available technology – lean burn and plug in hybrids
• Alternative fuels – renewable electricity and Biofuels (?)
• Restrictions – clean parts of the city
• Ecological driving and slower speeds
• Increase load factors
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Role for TransportTransport = 25% CO2 and rising to 66% by 2050?
Policy Objective Reductions in CO2 emissions and less carbon
Slower Travel
Less motorised travel
Virtuous Pathways
Kyoto 2 Targets
Transport Contributing Fully to the -80% 2050
Target
Fewer Accidents
Environmental Benefits
Individual and Societal Benefits
More Active Transport
Health Benefits Less Obesity
Less Pollution Health Benefits
Individual and Societal Benefits
Individual and Societal Benefits
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Strategic Challenges
1. Climate change challenge – links to current travel patterns in Oxfordshire.
2. Increases in mobility – impacts of transport investments on travel and location decisions on transport.
3. Balance between economic, social and environmental elements of sustainability.