Sustainable Energy Mix and Renewables Plan in Korea Considering Roles of BESSs

(CITIES 5th General Consortium Meeting, FREDERICIA, 20-21 SEP 2018)

Prof. Jong Bae Park

School of Electrical and Electronics, Konkuk University

2

• Characteristics and Issues of Korean Power System

• Summary of Energy Transition Plan of Korean

Government

• Energy Vision 2040 of Korea

• Flexibility Increase in Korean Power System Plan

• Conclusions and Suggestions

CONTENTS

Characteristics of South Korean Power System

3

• Centralized Bulk Power System (Generation, Transmission, Demand)

– Highly Concentrated Generation Sites for Massive Nuclear and Coal Plants

(maximum 10 nuclear units in a site)

– 765kV HVAC & 500kV HVDC (Bulk Transmission)

– 40% electricity consumption in Seoul-metro and 30% of Busan-metro areas

• Isolated Power System, Dependency for Fuel Import (94%, 100 BUS$/year)

Coal S ite

Nuclear Site

Nuclear S ite

(New HVDC)

Issues of South Korean Power System

4

• Implementation of De-centralized Power System

(Generation, Transmission, Demand)

• Systematic Flexibility Enhancement for Active Renewable

Penetration (DR, Interconnection, CHP, GT, BESS, etc)

• Increase of Reliability & Resilience

• Reduction of CO2 Emissions through Energy Mix Changes

• Reduction of SOx, NOx, PM2.5, PM10 for Air Pollution Mitigation

Supply and Demand in Korean Power System

5

• Historical Supply and Demand in Korea (1990-2017)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Demand (MW)Capacity Reserve Margin (%) Operating Reserve Margin (%)

. Installed Capacity (117GW), Peak (85 GW), Operating Reserve Margin (13%) in 2017

. Experience of Rolling Blackout in 2011 (Low Reserve Margin, Demand Forecasting Error)

Capacity and Generation Mix in Korea (2017)

6

• Capacity and Generation Mix (2017)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

석탄

(Coal)

원자력

(Nuclear)

천연가스

(Natural Gas)

유류

(Oil)

수력

(Hydro)

집단

(Cogen)

신재생

(Renewable)

Generation Mix Trend in Korea

7

• Generation Mix Trend in Korea (2000-2017)

• 2000 : Nuclear (41%) > Coal (37%) > LNG (11%) > Oil (10%) > Hydro (2%)• 2017 : Coal (43%) > Nuclear (27%) > LNG (21%) > Renewables (6%) > Oil (2%) > Hydro (1%)

Renewables in Korea (2016)

8

• Renewables in Korea (2016)

. Renewable Share in Capacity [MW] : 12.5% (PV 4.5GW, Waste 3.8GW, Bio 1.9GW

Hydro 1.8GW, Wind 1GW, IGCC 0.34, etc)

. Generation [GWh] : 7.2%

. Share of PV and Wind Generation : 2.2% (Mostly by Waste and Bio)

Cumulative Capacity [MW] Renewable Generation [GWh, %]

PV’s Contribution in 2018 Summer Peak

9

• Historical Peak in 2018 Summer (July 24, 2018)

• 2018.7.24 pm 5 : 92,480 MW • PV Capacity : 7,060MW including Self-generation• PV Peak Cutting on July 24, 2018 : Around 4 GW• Peak-time Shift due to PV Generation : pm 2 ➔ pm 5

New Government’s Energy Transition Plan

10

• 8th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan (Dec. 2017)

- Reduction of Nuclear & Coal Share

- Increasing Renewable Generation by 20% until 2030

- Electrification through E-mobility (1 Million Evs)

• 3rd National Energy Basic Plan (Under Process)

- The Highest Government Energy Plan (Every 5 years)

- Continuous Increase of Renewable in 2040 (25%~40%)

- System Flexibility through Various Options (Including BESS)

8th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan - 1

11

• Nuclear Plan in 8th Electricity Plan (Dec. 2017)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

6th Plan (2013) 7th Plan (2015) 8th Plan (2018)

24 Units (22.5GW) 27 Units (27.5GW) 18 Units (20.4GW)

2017 2022 2030

11

8th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan - 2

• Coal Plan in 8th Electricity Plan (Dec. 2017)

61 Units (36.9GW) 61 Units (42GW) 57 Units (39.9GW)

2017 2022 2030

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

6th Plan (2013) 7th Plan (2015) 8th Plan (2018)

8th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan - 3

• Renewable Plan in 8th Electricity Plan (Dec. 2017)

FC

By-Product

Waste

Bio

Ocean

Hydro

Wind

PV

7th Plan (2015)

• 20% Renewable Generation in 2030.

• PV and Wind Focused Renewable Capacity

Integrated Smart Energy System (2040 Vision)

14

• Market-based Smart Energy System. Flexibility through all Energy Sector.

Renewables

Energy FlowElectricityMarket

Heating/Cooling/Process

Steam

CHP

Transportation

AMI

Real-Time Ancillary Service

Gas

IoE

LNG

Energy Storage MagnetsCapacitorsCompressed AirSuperconductivity

Solar Heat

Storage

h FuelCell

H2

LPG H2

GasStationHeater

HeatPump

V2G

hCharger

Conventional ESSBattery ESS

Scenario-Based Renewables Initiative in 2040

15

• Renewables Penetration Based on the Conditions of Policy, Market, and Technology(Flexibility)

• RE E 30% (2040) – Stage 4

• Market-driven Scenario

• Partial Smart Energy System

( Policy+, Market +, Tech - )

RE E (4030)

• RE E 20% (2030) – Stage 3

• 8th Basic Plan (2017)

RE E (3020)

• RE E 25% (2040) – Stage 4

• Policy-driven scenario

• Separate Energy System

( Policy+, Market -, Tech - )

RE E (4025)

• RE E 40%↑ (2040) – Stage 4

• Market & Tech-driven Scenario

• Integrated Smart Energy

System

( Policy+, Market +, Tech + )

RE E (4040)Fle

xib

ility

Policy

Mark

et

IEA Classification of Renewable Portion. Stage1: ∼3%, Stage2: 3∼15%, Stage3: 15∼25%, Stage4: 25%↑

Major Outcomes of 2040 Energy Vision

16

• Major outcomes of Korean Power System through 2040 Energy Vision

< % of Renewable Generation > < % of Distributed Generation >

< Market Participant of Renewables (10^4) > < E-mobility (10^4) >

E-mobility Scenarios in 2040

17

• E-mobility : 3 Millions in 2030 (CO2 Mitigation Plan in Transportation. 2018)

• Peak & Energy Increase in Electricity Sector in 2040 (5M, 7.5M, 10M)

TWh GW

Renewables Capacity by Scenarios in 2040

18

• Renewable Capacity in 2040 by Scenarios (EVs 5M) : 73GW ~ 120GW

• Renewable Capacity in 2040 by Scenarios (EVs 10M) : 75GW – 123GW

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

4025 4040 4040

Capacity [MW] of Renewables (5M EVs)

PV Wind Hydro Bio Waste By-product FC Ocean IGCC

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

4025 4040 4040

Capacity [MW] of Renewables (10M EVs)

PV Wind Hydro Bio Waste By-product FC Ocean IGCC

Flexibility Increase to Overcome Volatility and Uncertainty of Renewables - 1

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• Flexibility – The Critical Component for Massive Increase of Renewable Generation

• Volatility Analysis of Winds and PVs in Korea (2017)

Wind PV

CF (%) Avg. : 22.45 Max. : 74.83 Avg. : 15.99 Max. : 86.94

Output

Volatility

(%p)

5 Mins : -4.38 ~ 6.02

30 Mins : -9.43 ~ 12.83

1 hr : -13.36 ~ 17.49

2 hrs : -21.13 ~ 25.99

5 Mins : -6.37 ~ 5.22

30 Mins : -14.24 ~ 15.95

1 hr : -29.09 ~ 29.26

2 hrs : -51.41 ~ 52.60

5 Mins Volatility of PV5 Mins Volatility of Wind

Flexibility Increase to Overcome Volatility and Uncertainty of Renewables - 2

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• Volatility Forecasting of Winds and PVs (2016, 2030, 2040)

• Flexibility Options: Market Structure including Reserves, Supply Options, Demand Options, Storage Options (BESS), Infrastructure, etc.

• BESS(Li-B) focused Presentation

Volatility [MW] 2016 20302040

25% 40%

PV

[MW]

5 Mins-(Dec) - 415 - 2,136 - 2,771 - 4,713

+(Inc) 340 1,750 2,271 3,862

1 hour-(Dec) - 1,896 - 9,754 - 12,654 - 21,524

+(Inc) 1,907 9,811 12,728 21,649

Wind

[MW]

5 Mins-(Dec) - 53 - 770 - 1,035 - 1,760

+(Inc) 73 1,058 1,422 2,419

1 hour-(Dec) - 162 - 2,348 - 3,156 - 5,368

+(Inc) 212 3,074 4,131 7,027

Flexibility Increase (Smart Grid Infrastructure)

21

• Smart Grid Infrastructure (~2022)

SYSTEM

INFRA

Faci-lity

System Operation Transmission

Distribution Customer

RE RE

Digital SS

RE

ESS(FR)

BESS Applications in Power System

22

• Active Application of LiB BESS for Power System Stablizationin South Korea

• Frequency Regulation (Primary, Secondary Reserve)

• Renewable Integration (PV and Wind through REC Compensation)

• Peak Cutting of Industrial Customers through Incentive Mechanism (TOU)

• Around 3GW~4GW in Total LiB BESS Under Operation or Construction

BESS Applications for Frequency Regulation in Korea

23

• Total 360MW BESSs for FR in Operation (2018)

• LiB BESS for FRby KEPCO’s S/S

• Replacing Coal’s Primary Response

Frequency Regulation Operations - 1

24

• Operation Characteristics of FR ESS (Aug. 18, 2016)

– ESS Power/Energy : 24MW/6MWh

– BESS Operation Range : 60Hz ± 0.03

– SOC Operaton Range : 20 ~ 80%

➔ Frequent Operation and Depth-of-Operation Shorten Lifespan of

BESS(LiB)

[MW] SOC(%)

Frequency Regulation Operations - 2

25

• Hybrid (LiB + Supercapacitor) Operation of FR ESS Considering Wearing Cost (Under Research)

(a) LiB BESS single operation

(b) HESS operation

Multi-purpose Operations of BESS

26

• Renewable (PV, Wind) + BESS : Constant Power Control, Smoothing, Energy Shifting

Cost Reduction of Renewables

• Historical REC Spot Price Trend

• LCOE Estimation (PV vs Nuclear)

27

Conclusions and Suggestions

• Massive Renewables Capacity Increase Plan of New Government until 2030 and 2040

– 60GW in 2030 (20% in 2030)

– 70GW~120GW in 2040 (25%~40% in 2040)

• Systematic and Cost-effective Flexibility Increase Strategy

– Platform and Infrastructure Implementation including Interconnection

– BESS Contribution (Cost Reduction Required)

– Successful Implementation of Market-based Smart Energy System including EV, Gas(P2G), Thermal, etc

• International Collaboration & Sharing of System Operation Experience

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