Renewables DA's

8/16/2019 Renewables DA's

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***Rare Earth Metals DA


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Hegemony DA


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1NC Shell

Rare earth supply and demand is stable now but supply islimited – the plan auses supply shortages and

bottlene!sSnyder" #loomberg writer" 1$[Jim, 1/5/12, Bloomberg News, “Five Rare Earths Crucial or Clea! E!erg"#ee! $! #hort #u%%l",& htt%'//www(bloomberg(com/!ews/2)12*)1*)5/+ve*rare*earths*crucial*or*clea!*e!erg"*see!*i!*short*su%%l"(html Falli!g -rices .hile pries o% rare earths %ell in the seond hal% o% $&11"they remain 'olatile, leai!g some com%a!ies to search or wa"s toco!sier reuci!g relia!ce o! the mi!erals, the E!erg" 0e%artme!t sai( hee%artme!t is also researchi!g how to use rare*earths more ecie!tl",i!clui!g through rec"cli!g, a! to i!crease %rouctio! i! the 3(#( hee%artme!t4s va!ce Research -ro6ects ge!c"**E!erg" has give! about781(9 millio! to 1: research %ro6ects to stu" wa"s to reuce or elimi!ate use

o rare*earth eleme!ts( )n Congress" at least a doen bills ha'e beenintrodued supporting de'elopment o% a domesti rare+earthindustry" inluding through ,(S( loan guarantees, accori!g to theE!erg" 0e%artme!t re%ort( None o% the measures has passed( -.hebiggest hallenge is a permitting system that has historially ta!enmultiple years to go %rom e/ploration to prodution,& 0a!iel;corce,& the re%ort sai(

.he plan auses massi'e bottlene!s and tradeo5s thatollapse ompeting industries and pre'ent a transition torenewablesSpene" writer %or EurAti'" 11[imoth", 11/19/11, DRare*earth shortage to ham%er clea! e!erg"' E3 stu",Dwww(euractiv(com/sustai!abilit"/rare*earth*shortage*ham%er*clea!*!ews*5)9A

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.html


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6ooming shortages o% metals that are in high demand anddominated by a single supplier – China G threaten Euro%e4s goals %orleaner transport and sustainable energy, sa"s a !ew stu" %re%areor the Euro%ea! Commissio!( he stu" b" the Joi!t Research Ce!tre sa"ssupply short%alls o% omponent metals i! the !eHt two ecaes ris! theprodution o% solar" wind and nulear tehnologies as well as eletri

'ehiles and arbon+apture systems( “his as more evie!ce to theact that Euro%e has to loo> withi! itsel I a! more towar wastema!ageme!t, to re*use eHisti!g metals,& sai 0r( Ra"mo! ;oss, lea authoro the re%ort( .he 0ndings ould ha'e serious impliations %or the E34s“Roama% or movi!g to a low+arbon eonomy i! 2)5)& that hinges onde'elopment o% renewable energy" clea!er tra!s%ort as well asmoer!isi!g a! i!tegrati!g Euro%e4s electricit" gris( Suh ambitionsdepend hea'ily on the a'ailability o% neodymium" dysprosium, i!ium,tellurium a! gallium, metals that are in demand globally( E34s vital rawmaterials he Commissio! has alrea" ie!ti+e many so*calle rare+earthminerals as well as metals li>e cobalt i! its lists o 1: eco!omicall" vital rawmaterials that are prone to supply disruption( he JRC stu" is %art o theCommissio!4s eHami!atio! o raw material !ees( Euro%e e%e!s o! im%ortsor !earl" all o its rare*earth metals( hough ma!" are i! abu!a!t su%%l" o!the %la!et, the metals are dispersed or diult to aess" and despitetheir importane to green energy" re7uire intensi'e mining andproessing( China ontrols more than 8&9 o% the mar!et ( $! Jul", the.orl rae rga!isatio! calle o! Chi!a to ease its eH%ort restrictio!s o! 1Arare*earth metals im%orta!t to e!erg", tra!s%ort a! electro!icsma!uacturi!g( Shortages or limitations on supply would ha'e seriousimpat on many industries( But with solar and wind power e/petedto aount %or the biggest energy growth mar!ets over the !eHt 2)"ears, the impat on alternati'e energy ould be pro%ound( he JRCre%ort sa"s +ve metals * "s%rosium, !eo"mium, tellurium, gallium, a!i!ium * are at the highest ris! o% supply -bottlene!s: %rom highdemand" onentration o% supply and -high politial ris!s due to ane/treme onentration o% supply in China(& he stu" eHami!es 1: rare*earth metals( Solar energy tech!ologies, or eHam%le, will re7uire hal%the urrent world supply o% tellurium and $;9 o% the supply o%indium, the re%ort sa"s( Euro%e4s wi! e!erg" tech!olog" will reuire about:K o the su%%l" o both !eo"mium a! "s%rosium( “.hile the %erce!tmight be small, it coul have a sig!i+ca!t eLect o! wi! tech!olog",& ;osstol Eurctiv( he co!cer!, he sai is that “8& perent o% the soure is inChina at the moment" and they themsel'es ha'e a rapidly growingdemand %or the same metals whilst they ha'e also limitedrestritions on e/port(&


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.he more the ,nited States embraes green energy tehnologies"the worse o5 it will be geopolitially and eonomially( Demand %orgreen energy would %all i% there were not huge go'ernmentsubsidies, gra!ts and mandates" beause green energy is moree/pensi'e and less reliable than traditional energy prodution( Asthe push to adopt rare earth+intensi'e energy tehnologies

intensi0es" those onerned about ,( S( energy seurity ould 0ndthat the tradeo5 in'ol'es swapping one %orm o% dependene %or amuh more perilous one( $! aitio!, the di'ersion o% sare rareearths to green energy tehnologies means that there is lessa'ailable %or ritial aerospae and military tehnologies(

Rare earth a7uisition is !ey to nulear primay + guidedmissiles" 0rst stri!e apabilities>ennedy" =resident o% 2ings Enterprises" internationallyreognied e/pert on rare earths" 1&[J( e!!e", ;arch 2)1), “Critical a! #trategic Failure o Rare Earth

Resources,& htt%'//www(sme!et(org/rareEarths-ro6ect/;#*N;B*%a%erO*8(%@ he !atio!al ee!se issues are euall" im%orta!t( Rare earths are ritialomponents %or military ?et engines" guided missiles and bombs"eletrial ountermeasures" anti+missile systems" satelliteommuniation systems and armor" yet the ,(S( has no domestisoures( $!!ovatio! 0rives $!ustr" G $!ustr" Carries the Eco!om"Ad'anes in Materials Siene are a result o% tireless inno'ationPi!!ovatio! see!ing impro'ements in the per%ormane andharateristis o% material properties or a hange in their %orm or%untion( Muh o% this wor! must e'entually translate intoommerial and military appliations( oa" ma!" ad'anes in

material siene are ahie'ed through the appliation o% rare eartho/ides, eleme!ts a! allo"s( his grou% o eleme!ts, also >!ow! as thela!tha!ie series, re%rese!ts the o!l" >!ow! brige to the !eHt level oim%rove %erorma!ce i! the material %ro%erties or ma!" metallurgicalallo"s, electrical co!uctivit", a! i!strume!t se!sitivit" a! i! some cases amecha!ical or %h"sical cha!ge i! u!ctio!( .hese lanthanides hold uni7uehemial" magneti" eletrial" luminesene and radioati'eshielding harateristis( Combined with other elements they anhelp maintain or alter physial and strutural harateristis underhanging onditions( oa", these rare earth elements are essentialto e'ery omputer hard rive, cell %ho!e, e!erg" ecie!t light bulb, ma!"automoti'e pollution ontrol de'ies and atalysts" hybrid

automobiles and most" i% not all" military guidane systems andad'aned armor( omorrow, the" will be use i! ultra ca%acit" wi!turbi!es, mag!etic rerigeratio!, Qero emissio! automobiles,su%erco!uctors, sub*light*s%ee com%uter %rocessors, !a!o*%articletech!ologies or material a! metallurgical a%%licatio!s, structurall"amor%hous metals, ne/t generation military armor and .ER@EN6+DRadar( Ameria must lead in these de'elopments( .he entire ,(S(de%ense system is ompletely interdependent upon RE enhanedtehnologies %or our most ad'aned weapons guidane systems"


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ad'aned armor" seure ommuniations" radar" ad'aned radarsystems" weapons triggering systems and un+manned Drones( REdependent weapons tehnologies are predominantly represented inour B0rst stri!e and un+manned apabilities( his !atio!al ee!se issueis !ot a case o limite eH%osure or +rst*stri>e ca%abilities( .his 0rst+stri!e'ulnerability translates into ris! e/posure in e'ery le'el o% our

national de%ense system" as the system is built around ourpresumpti'e tehnologial and 0rst+stri!e superiority( et the 0o0 hasaba!o! its traitio!al %rocureme!t %rotocols or “strategic a! critical&materials a! com%o!e!ts or wea%o!s s"stems i! avor o “the %ri!ci%les oree trae(&

6oss o% ,(S( nulear primay auses global nulear warCa'es" Senior Researh @ellow in the Center %or the Studyo% 2eapons o% Mass Destrution at the National De%ense,ni'ersity" 1&[Joh! -( Caves Jr(, Ja!uar" 2)1), “voii!g a Crisis o Co!+e!ce i! the 3(#(

Nuclear 0eterre!t,& #trategic Forum, No( 252=ereptions o% a ompromised ,(S( nulear deterrent as desribedabo'e would ha'e pro%ound %olic" impliations" partiularly i% theyemerge at a time when a nulear+armed great power is pursuing amore aggressi'e strategy toward ,(S( allies and partners i! its regio!in a bid to enhane its regional and global lout( A dangerous periodo% 'ulnerability would open %or the ,nited States and those nationsthat depend on ,(S( protetion while the 3!ite #tates attem%te torecti" the %roblems with its !uclear orces( s it woul ta>e more tha! aecae or the 3!ite #tates to %rouce !ew !uclear wea%o!s, e!sui!geve!ts coul %reclue a retur! to a!"thi!g li>e the status uo a!te( .heasserti'e" nulear+armed great power" and other ma?or ad'ersaries"

ould be willing to hallenge ,(S( interests more diretly in thee/petation that the ,nited States would be less prepared tothreaten or deli'er a military response that ould lead to diretonit( .hey will want to !eep the ,nited States %rom relaiming itsearlier power position( Allies and partners who ha'e relied upon eH%licit or im%licit assuranes o% ,(S( nulear protetion as a%oundation o% their seurity ould lose %aith in those assuranes(.hey ould ompensate by aommodating ,(S( ri'als" espeially inthe short term" or a7uiring their own nulear deterrents" which i!most cases coul be accom%lishe o!l" over the mi* to lo!g term( more!uclear worl woul li>el" e!sue over a %erio o "ears( $m%orta!t 3(S(interests ould be ompromised or abandoned" or a ma?or war ould

our as ad'ersaries andor the ,nited States misalulate newboundaries o% deterrene and pro'oation( t worst, war ould lead tostate+on+state employment o% weapons o% mass destrution F2MDGon a sale %ar more atastrophi than what nulear+armed terroristsalone ould init(


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$NC – Deterrene

Deterrene !ey to pre'enting global nulear wars and atsas a onit dampener

Murdo!" senior ad'isor in the CS)S )nternational Seurity=rogram" [Clar>, ;arch 2)), “he 0e%artme!t o 0ee!se a! the Nuclear ;issio! othe 21st Ce!tur",& Be"o!


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.omahaw! Deterrene )mpat

Rare earth metals are !ey to .omahaw! ruise missilesHusband" writer %or Har'ard 6aw National Seurity

Iournal" 1$[0avi, 8/A/12, D!*#hori!g the -rouctio! o Rare Earth ;etals,D Tarvar=aw Natio!al #ecurit" Jour!al, harvar!s6(org/2)12/)8/o!*shori!g*the*%rouctio!*o*rare*earth*metals/Rare earth metals ha'e numerous military appliations( he 3(#(*Chi!aEco!omic a! #ecurit" Review Commissio! has a ma!ate to submit “a!a!!ual re%ort o! the !atio!al securit" im%licatio!s o the bilateral trae a!eco!omic relatio!shi%s betwee! the 3!ite #tates a! the -eo%le4s Re%ublico Chi!a(& ccori!g to the Commissio!, rare earth metals play a ritialrole in “sophistiated military appliations inluding guidane andontrol systemsJ ad'aned optis tehnologiesJ radar and radiationdetetion e7uipmentJ and ad'aned ommuniations systems( #ome

o the de%ense related weapons and e7uipment that ontain rareearths areK -reator u!ma!!e aerial vehicles, .omahaw! ruisemissiles, Uumwalt*class estro"ers, !ight visio! goggles, smart bombs, a!so!ar tra!sucers(& he Commissio! also !otes that the ,nited States wasone the world leader o% the rare earth metals industry, accou!ti!g i!1: or at least o!e*thir o global eH%orts, a position that Chinasuess%ully hallenged through hea'y go'ernmental subsidies o%non+pro0table mines(

.he .omahaw! is !ey to deterrene and pre'entingnulear esalationReynolds" Na'al =ostgraduate Shool" 8

[ #ubmari!es,D,www(tic(mil/cgi*bi!/


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uestio! must be a!swere beore ecisio!s are ta>e! o! the uture o !o!*strategic !uclear wea%o!s( he a!swer e%e!s o! the %olitical a! militar"reuireme!ts i!volve( 3(#( militar" octri!e states that Dthe em%lo"me!t o!uclear wea%o!s must oLer a clearl" sig!i+ca!t ava!tage over !o!!uclearmu!itio!s(D 1 .hile ebati!g the rati+catio! o the 3!ite Natio!sCo!ve!tio! o! Chemical .ea%o!s, the 3(#( #e!ate attem%te to clari" whe!

the use o !o!*strategic !uclear wea%o!s might be co!siere( .illiam -err",the! the #ecretar" o 0ee!se, was uestio!e co!cer!i!g the use ochemical wea%o!s agai!st 3!ite #tates militar" orces( #e!ator -ell as>e,D$, i!g i! terms o !uclearwea%o!sM re "ou thi!>i!g i! terms o co!ve!tio!al wea%o!sM .hat woul bethe mea!s o res%o!i!gMD 2 -err" a!swere' .e woul !ot s%eci" i!ava!ce what our res%o!se to a chemical attac> is eHce%t to sa" it woul beevastati!g( ! we have a wie ra!ge o militar" ca%abilities to ma>e goothat threat( 8 Because %oliticia!s are relucta!t to rule out militar" o%tio!s,the" avoi e+!i!g the circumsta!ces i! which a !o!*strategic !uclearwea%o! might be use( his a%%roach has bee! reerre to as the strateg" oDcalculate ambiguit",D Non+strategi nulear weapons might beemployed as a possible response to the use o% a weapon o% massdestrution( his might be icult or im%ossible i the res%o!sible %art"ca!!ot be ie!ti+e( 3(S( strategy toward weapons o% mass destrutionemphasies pre'enting proli%eration and maintaining apabilitiesthat would diminish the 'alue o% their use by other nations( -art oAmeriaLs deterrent apability resides in its non+strategi nulearweapons( -resie!t Cli!to! aresse the %rolieratio! o wea%o!s o massestructio! i! EHecutive rer 128( $, .illiam J( Cli!to!, -resie!t o the3!ite #tates o merica, +! that the %rolieratio! o !uclear, biological, a!chemical wea%o!s ?“wea%o!s o mass estructio!D@ a! o the mea!s oeliveri!g such wea%o!s, co!stitutes a! u!usual a! eHtraori!ar" threat tothe !atio!al securit", oreig! %olic", a! eco!om" o the 3!ite #tates, a!hereb" eclare a !atio!al emerge!c" to eal with that threat( : -resie!tCli!to! rearme the im%orta!ce o this eHecutive orer b" eHte!i!g itseLective!ess a! ai!g aitio!al measures o! 2 Jul" 1( he orerco!tai!e i%lomatic, commercial, a! ami!istrative remeies to res%o! to%rolieratio!, but i !ot i!clue militar" measures that might be co!siere(

he ambiguit" i! the %olitical co!sieratio!s or the use o a !uclear wea%o!is i!te!tio!al( #tateme!ts such as Dall available res%o!sesD or Devastati!gres%o!seD have bee! use to i!icate that !uclear wea%o!s coul beco!siere without ma>i!g a clear overt threat( Nulear weapons are usedas a tool to pre'ent war or to deter esalation to higher le'els o%'iolene( $! the case o .;0, a non+strategi nulear weapon might beused to pre'ent %urther esalation and the outbrea! o% a muh largergeneral war( James Ba>er has escribe the co!itio! as livi!g withambiguit"( 5 ccori!g to Ba>er, he emise o the #oviet 3!io! ecreasethe ris> o global thermo!uclear war while i!creasi!g the %ossibilit" o lesser,but still a!gerous, regio!al co!ict( $!ter!atio!al %ower has bee! iLusea! i!ter!atio!al isci%li!e loose!e( 3!er these circumsta!ces, the%rolieratio! o wea%o!s o mass estructio! raises the %ossibilit" o a DNew.orl 0isorerD with a ve!gea!ce( 9 he isorer that ma" result is eHactl"


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wh" 3!ite #tates !uclear %olic" must remai! ambiguous( mbiguit" e!suresthat there will be eHibilit" i! a!" %olic" %ositio! a! limi!ates hollow threats(@le/ibility in strategy and the strength to onsider all responseoptions are the !eys to oping with a turbulent seurityen'ironment( Em%lo"me!t octri!e shoul be u!ambiguous( Em%lo"me!toctri!e oes !ot aress whe! to res%o!, but how to res%o! o!ce

authoriQe a! orere to o so b" civilia! authorit"( he Joi!t Chies o #taL0octri!e or Joi!t heater Nuclear %eratio!s escribes the %ossible e!em"orces a! acilities that might warra!t a !o!*strategic !uclear militar"res%o!se( he %ossessio! or use o wea%o!s o mass estructio! is covereu!er !o!*state actors as well as state actors( No!*state actors a! wea%o!so mass estructio!, i!clui!g their eliver" s"stems, are escribe as Dli>el"ca!iatesD or the use o a !uclear wea%o!( A he best choice toa"agai!st these target t"%es might be a si!gle !o!*strategic !uclear wea%o! ithe civilia! Natio!al Comma! uthorit" etermi!e that the use o a !uclearwea%o! was i!ee !ecessar"( .he ad'antages o5ered by nulear.omahaw! are that hea'ily de%ended areas may be penetratedwithout ris! to rew" highly mobile plat%orms in international waters

ser'e as launh sites" weapons are highly aurate" launhingplat%orm is reallable" basing issues are simpli0ed" and ma/imumstealth and surprise an be maintained prior to launh(D .hesead'antages ma!e nulear .omahaw! the best weapon system hoieto aomplish diult non+strategi nulear missions(

Nulear deterrene pre'ents e/tintion – deters roguestates" halts proli%eration" and deesalates onitsworldwide – moderniation is !ey(#runer and Co!ey" e o% the Chie% o% Na'alperations" 1

[Rear miral Barr", Ca%tai! ;ichael, Februar", ce o the Chie o Naval%eratio!s, -roceei!gs ;agaQi!e Ool( 1:)/2/1,882, “Now Tear his G .e;ust Tave Nuclear 0eterre!ce,&htt%'//www(us!i(org/magaQi!es/%roceei!gs/2)1:*)2/!ow*hear*we*must*have*!uclear*eterre!ce@ [!owi!g we are their shiel( he" live ail" with the threat o a! e!em" thatcasuall" a! re%eatel" s%ea>s o usi!g !u>es a! has emo!strate itsabilit" to attac> without war!i!g, as it i whe! its submari!e sa!> the #outh

orea! shi% Cheo!a! o! 29 ;arch 2)1)( Should these ountries deidethey need their own nulear weapons" they ertainly ha'e thetehnology and the ability to build them " thereby signi0antlyraising the sta!es and the li!elihood o% war( Enter deterrene( ,(S(nulear deterrene shouldK X Disourage suh atta!s against the,nited States by ensuring the ability to deli'er an o'erwhelmingresponse in !ind X Ma!e us resistant to oerion by ad'ersaries usi!gthe threat o such a! attac> to i!uce co!cessio!s X Redue the hane o%

http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2014-02/now-hear-we-must-have-nuclear-deterrencehttp://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2014-02/now-hear-we-must-have-nuclear-deterrencehttp://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2014-02/now-hear-we-must-have-nuclear-deterrencehttp://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2014-02/now-hear-we-must-have-nuclear-deterrence


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large+sale on'entional war between nulear+armed ad'ersariesbeause o% the shared %ear o% esalation X E/tend a guarantee toallies and partners" reduing the proli%eration o% these weapons a!,thus, the li>elihoo o their use .he mission o% our nulear %ores is tothreaten what an ad'ersary 'alues" thereby a'erting an atta! o%this nature on us" our %riends" or our regional partners( Deterrene is

a matter o% pereptions ( )ts e5et ta!es plae in the mind o% anopponent li'ing in another ountry with iLere!t values, %ressures, a!goals( )ts purpose is to inuene the otherOBsP gu"4s deision ma!ing,!ot ours( his is so sim%le, "et so eas" to orget( he worl4s oremost eH%ertsstruggle to eci%her >im Iong+un4s thought %rocess, but he ma" well believehe ca!!ot survive without these wea%o!s( Te ma" eel that the" are hissource o %ower( $t is %ossible he belie'es he holds the ultimate trumpard and threatens using nulear weapons to inuene alulationsin %uture international engagements( Nine ountries ha'e thisapability( his mea!s onits similar to those playing out with North>orea and to a lesser degree )ran will ontinue to ma!e headlines(.he 'alue o% our deterrene is that it limits aggressors to threats(

.hey annot hold us or our partners at ris! beause we maintain%ores that are redible" sur'i'able" and ready( itio!all", ournulear power may delay hostile ation long enough %or negotiationsto relie'e tensions( >im Iong+un must understand that i% he atta!s"we will respond with a strong resol'e" and that we ha'e an assuredseond+stri!e apability( .hat is more, our readiness inuenes Chinaand Russia " both nulear+apable ountries with wide ties andsigni0ant sway( .he redibility o% our nulear %ores and our resol'emust remain lear to these great powers as they e/ert pressure onrogue leaders( ! we must remember that deisions we ma!e nowa5et the belie'ability o% our deterrene later, as we a!al"Qe a!u!certai! uture base o! what we >!ow toa" a! our best estimate ocomi!g tre!s( As our nulear %ores reah the end o% their li'es" wemust ta!e ation to !eep our apability strong and e/ible( -resie!tBarac> bama has ta!en a position onsistent with those o% manyprior administrations( .he responsible ation now is %or us torearm our embrae o% a strong nulear deterrent" thus reduingthe hanes o% proli% eratio! and misalulatio!( 2e must not inh rom this critical test o !atio!al character( ur %la!!e 12 ballistic*missilesubmari!es will %rovie strategic !uclear eterre!ce i!to the 2))s( As wedebate the merits o% 'arious programs o'er oming years" we mustnot lose sight o% the %at that they guarantee our 'ery e/istene"deterring potential enemies %rom using weapons with unimaginableonse7uenes(


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REMs >$ Heg

Rare earth dependene an ollapse ,S militaryo5ensi'es in months – %astest internal lin! to heg

#arry" Editor At e su%er mag!ets or wi! turbi!es( o bac> u% thistheor", Chi!a attem%te to %urchase ustralia! REE mi!er ="!as Cor%oratio!

last "ear( China is not ?ust interested in hoarding a depleting store o%rare earths( ccori!g to the -eo%le4s 0ail", muh o% the go'ernmentsonern is en'ironmental( he area arou! Baitou * where the ma6orit" o%rouctio! occurs * was %ollute b" toHic chemicals use to %rocess this ore(;uch o the amage was cause b" illegal, u!co!trolle mi!i!g o%eratio!s(Eve! worse, the co!tami!atio! ha%%e!e while much o these valuableresources were waste ue to the use o outate tech!olog"( .hile ma!"a!al"sts oubt that Bei6i!g cares about ecological amage, $ believe this istrul" a motive or Chi!ese leaers( 3% to 5K o Chi!a4s eco!omic out%ut islost ue to e!viro!me!tal estructio! each "ear, as well as :)),))) eHcesseaths( ver the %ast ecae, the !atio! has mae great stries i! im%rovi!gthe e!viro!me!t( Chi!a i!crease its orest cover a! lesse!e both air a!

water %ollutio!( )ts also ma!ing huge in'estments in green energy li!esolar and wind power to wean itsel% away %rom oal( 0ecaes o-la!!i!g China did not reah 8Q9 o% rare earth o/ide prodution byaident( .he nation has always been a long term planner( $! the19)s, leaers realiQe the sig!i+ca!ce o REE e%osits( 0e!g Yiao%i!gstate, “.he Middle East has oil" and China has rare earths(& Towever,the cou!tr" was!4t a ma6or %la"er i! the rare earth mar>et u!til 15( $! that"ear, China signi0antly inreased prodution at their Ba"a! bo mi!e(.hese elements ould be mined 'ery heaply as they are a by+

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produt o% iron ore prodution( )n addition" the elements arerelati'ely easy to e/trat" with low radioati'ity( t the same time,eletronis manu%aturing was outsoured to Asia" and it madesense to soure raw materials li!e REEs loally as well( 2ith lowerosts %or labor and %ewer regulations" China was able to outompeteother ountries li>e ustralia easil"( @oreign mines were shuttered dueto unpro0tability or en'ironmental onerns( B" 19, the Chi!ese hatotall" omi!ate the mar>et, a! most o the tehnial e/pertise hadbeen trans%erred to the East( China %unds ontinued researh in REEsin order to de'elop new appliations and !eep their lead in this 0eld(Now that the Chinese ontrol the rare earth mar!et" the go'ernmenthas deided to reorganie the entire industry( #muggli!g a! illegalmi!i!g will !o lo!ger be tolerate( Ninety mining ompanies will beonsolidated into $& by $&1; to impro'e eieny( $! $!!er ;o!golia,the Baotou #teel Rare*Earth com%a!" will be the o!l" legal mi!er, a! K oa!!ual %rouctio! will be save i! stoc>%iles( Chi!ese leaers are alsoco!sieri!g creati!g ocial state reserves( Chi!a4s Reve!ge hese ecisivemoves rom Chi!a have u%set cou!tries that ma!uacture items co!tai!i!gREEs, most !otabl" Ja%a!( $! ugust, Ja%a! begge the Chi!ese to easerestrictio!s o! eH%orts as surgi!g %rices are hurti!g cor%oratio!s( he

Ja%a!ese argue that these cuts were harmi!g Chi!ese com%a!ies thate%e! o! +!ishe %arts rom Ja%a! co!tai!i!g these eleme!ts( he Ja%a!esegover!me!t was so co!cer!e about the im%act o! its ma!uacturi!g basethat it se!t 19) busi!ess leaers to Chi!a or eco!omic tal>s( 0es%ite thesee!treaties, China was not 'ery e/ible" iting 2. rules that allow7uotas %or en'ironmental protetion( $! act, Chi!ese leaers suggestethat Ja%a! im%lore other cou!tries to %rouce more rare earths rather tha!e%e! o! their out%ut( he Ja%a!ese realiQe the" ha little bargai!i!g%ower, so the" agree to tra!ser tech!olog" o! %uri"i!g REEs( $! act,China is in the position to demand territorial onessions ine/hange %or aess to these metals( $4m sure that the Chi!ese aree!6o"i!g tur!i!g the tables o! the Ja%a!ese, eve! i o!l" eco!omicall"( hesetwo !atio!s have bee! rivals or ce!turies, with the +rst recore battleoccurri!g i! 998 0( Ja%a! has borrowe ma!" as%ects o Chi!ese culturerom its writi!g s"stem to %hiloso%h", but these co!tributio!s are rarel"creite b" the Ja%a!ese( ;ost o the source o Chi!ese a!ger is irecte at

Ja%a!4s aggressive militar" histor"( Ja%a! has re%eatel" i!vae a!occu%ie Chi!ese territor", most rece!tl" rom 181 to 1:5( Tu!res othousa!s o civilia!s were massacre i! Na!>i!g, a! other atrocities li>emeical eH%erime!ts were %er%etrate o! the %ublic( his rage simmersbelow the surace toa", as massive a!ti*Ja%a!ese emo!stratio!s occurreas late as 2))5( .hile Ja%a! seems u!willi!g to ma>e ormal re%aratio!s ora! a%olog" or the occu%atio!, the !atio! has uietl" bee! Chi!a4s largest+!a!cial ai o!or or "ears( o co%e with su%%l" isru%tio!, Ja%a!esecor%oratio!s are are reormulati!g %roucts so the" !o lo!ger reuire rareearth eleme!ts to wor>( Titachi has evelo%e a motor that uses a! iro! allo"i!stea o "s%rosium, but the %rotot"%e is !ot large e!ough "et or%rouctio!( he ei6i!


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they ha'e uni7ue 7ualities whih prompted their use in the 0rstplae( 3# ;ilitar" Oul!erable lthough the 3# is !ot a ma6or ma!uacturer ohigh tech co!sumer %roucts co!tai!i!g REEs, the military is dependenton them( As modern weapons %rom smart bombs to tan!s re7uirethese metals" the ability o% Ameria to wage war depends on asteady supply o% rare earths( he 3# was !ot alwa"s e%e!e!t o! the

co!ti!ue goowill o oreig! cou!tries or critical materials( he Natio!al#toc>%ile was establishe ater .orl .ar $$ to assure that esse!tial eleme!tswoul be available i! case o a! emerge!c"( $! the 1)s, the 3# 0e%artme!to 0ee!se ?00@ ecie that K o the stoc>%ile was “sur%lus& a! thevast ma6orit" was sol( lthough Chi!a has omi!ate the rare earth mar>etsi!ce the mi*1)s, the ,S go'ernment was unonerned aboutChinese ontrol o% these elements %or many years( nly in April$&&8" did the DD and Congress 0nally plae a %reee on the sale o%some materials" and deide to onser'e a minimum o% a one yearsupply %or others( .hile the 3# Touse o Re%rese!tatives has %asse a billto %romote locati!g a! eH%loiti!g rare earth resources, $ wo!er i thisactio! is too little too late( Not only are these metals neessary %orweapons" but %or -green: tehnology that attempts to lessendependene on %oreign oil, su%%lie mostl" b" cou!tries u!rie!l" to the3#( .hile the ;ou!tai! -ass mi!e i! Calior!ia was allowe to reo%e!, a!Co!gress ma" subsiiQe more rare earth resource evelo%me!t, it ta>es A to15 "ears to move rom a %romisi!g e%osit to a %rouci!g ore bo"( 2ithinade7uate domesti sto!piles" China ould shut down Ameriasmilitary o5ensi'es in a matter o% months(

=re%er our internal lin! – inreased wind and solarde'elopment spei0ally trades o5 with e5eti'e militarytehnology – alternati'e metals will ruin ,S military

primayHurst" Researh Analyst in the @oreign Military Studiese at @ort 6ea'enworth" 1&[Ci!" ( Turst, N03, DChi!aWs ce i! the Tole' Rare Earth Eleme!ts,D Joi!tForce Zuarterl" $ssue 5, ctober 2)1) www(!u(eu/%ress/chi!as*ace*i!*the*hole(html course, !ot all REEs are create eual( #ome e/perts predit that by$&1; there will be a shortage o% neodymium" terbium" anddysprosium, while su%%lies o euro%ium, erbium, a! "ttrium coul becometight( he !eo"mium*iro!*boro! ?NFeB@ %erma!e!t mag!ets are so stro!gthat the" are ieal or the mi!iaturiQatio! o a variet" o tech!ologies,i!clui!g %ossible !a!otech!ologies( ;a!" soli state lasers use !eo"miumue to its o%timal selectio! o absor%tio! a! emitti!g wavele!gths(Consumption o% neodymium is e/peted to inrease signi0antly asmore wind turbines ome online( .i! ma" be Dree,D but some o the!ewer ge!eratio! wind turbines use up to two tons o% these magnets(

erbium a! "s%rosium ca! be aitives to e!ha!ce the coercivit" i! NFeBmag!ets(1) ttrium is use, alo!g with !eo"mium, i! lasers( Euro%ium is themost reactive o the REEs( lo!g with its curre!t use i! %hos%hors oruoresce!t lam%s a! televisio!/com%uter scree!s, it is bei!g stuie or


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%ossible use i! !uclear reactors(11 Erbium is use as a! am%li+er or +bero%tic ata tra!smissio!( $t has also bee! +!i!g uses i! !uclear a%%licatio!sa! metallurg"( For eHam%le, ai!g erbium to va!aium, a metal use i!!uclear a%%licatio!s a! high*s%ee tools, lowers the har!ess a! im%rovesthe wor>abilit" o the metal( #amarium is a!other REE use i! militar"a%%licatio!s( #amarium is combi!e with cobalt to create a %erma!e!t

mag!et with the highest resista!ce to emag!etiQatio! o a!" material>!ow!( #eause o% its ability to withstand higher temperatureswithout losing its magnetism" it is essential in both aerospae andmilitary appliations( =reision+guided munitions use samarium+obalt ?#mCo@ permanent magnet motors to diret the ight ontrolsur%aes ?+!s@( #mCo an also be used as part o% stealth tehnology inheliopters to reate white noise to anel or hide the sound o% therotor blades( .hese magnets are used in de%ense radar systems aswell as in se'eral types o% eletroni ountermeasure e7uipment,such as the ail .ar!i!g Fu!ctio!(12 ccori!g to the 3(#(


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China DA


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1NC Shell

Rare earth supply and demand is stable now but supply islimited – the plan auses supply shortages and

bottlene!sSnyder" #loomberg writer" 1$[Jim, 1/5/12, Bloomberg News, “Five Rare Earths Crucial or Clea! E!erg"#ee! $! #hort #u%%l",& htt%'//www(bloomberg(com/!ews/2)12*)1*)5/+ve*rare*earths*crucial*or*clea!*e!erg"*see!*i!*short*su%%l"(html Falli!g -rices .hile pries o% rare earths %ell in the seond hal% o% $&11"they remain 'olatile, leai!g some com%a!ies to search or wa"s toco!sier reuci!g relia!ce o! the mi!erals, the E!erg" 0e%artme!t sai( hee%artme!t is also researchi!g how to use rare*earths more ecie!tl",i!clui!g through rec"cli!g, a! to i!crease %rouctio! i! the 3(#( hee%artme!t4s va!ce Research -ro6ects ge!c"**E!erg" has give! about781(9 millio! to 1: research %ro6ects to stu" wa"s to reuce or elimi!ate use

o rare*earth eleme!ts( )n Congress" at least a doen bills ha'e beenintrodued supporting de'elopment o% a domesti rare+earthindustry" inluding through ,(S( loan guarantees, accori!g to theE!erg" 0e%artme!t re%ort( None o% the measures has passed( -.hebiggest hallenge is a permitting system that has historially ta!enmultiple years to go %rom e/ploration to prodution,& 0a!iel;corce,& the re%ort sai(

Sudden energy in'estment s!yro!ets rare earth pries –that de'astates manu%aturers and deters inno'ationaross all industries – that ips the a5Epstein" writer %or the Chiago =oliy Re'iew" 1$[Nicholas, A/12/12, “;eium Rare' .hat4s Coo>i!g i! the Rare Earth Eleme!t;ar>etM(& htt%'//chicago%olic"review(org/2)12/)A/12/meium*rare*whats*coo>i!g*i!*the*rare*earth*eleme!t*mar>et/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.html


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REE supplies are 'ulnerable %or se'eral reasons( Most importantly" o!e !atio!, China" ontrols 8 perent o% the worlds REE prodution(Further, REEs are %ound together in geologial %ormations( As a result"REEs are o+mined" so prodution is highly onentratedgeographially( =astl", Rare Earth e/tration has negati'een'ironmental impats and Chinas poor labor standards add soial

onerns to the supply mar!et ( he authors ie!ti" circumsta!ces u!er which REEs may e/perienere'olutionary demand, that is, when new sudden tehnologialinno'ations sharply inrease the demand %or REEs( he" eH%lai! thatre'olutionary demand hanges an lead to supply and prieinstability in the materials mar!et ( .his e5et is harm%ul tomanu%aturers" who depend on a onsistent supply+hain" and detersadditional inno'ation(

Chinese resoure monopoly uni7uely ma!es war moreli!ely and more dangerous – e/port uto5s destroy

military e5eti'eness and ollapse hard power>im" writer %or .he Catalyst" 1 [.illiam im, 2/28/1:, he Catal"st, Colorao College, “Co!trol o rare eartheleme!ts crucial to merica! stabilit",&htt%'//catal"st!ews%a%er(com/2)1:/)2/28/co!trol*o*rare*earth*eleme!ts*crucial*to*america!*stabilit"/! e%isoe o Touse o Cars eals with a risis between China and the,nited States as a result o% China utting o5 ,S aess to #amarium,a rare earth element( 3!ortu!atel", this situatio! is not 'ery %ar%ethed( Rare earth elements are e/tremely important to the ,nitedStates( .hey ha'e 'ital appliations in eletronis, as the" are use i!the %rouctio! o har is>s, smart %ho!es, O scree!s, a! touch scree!s(

Rare earth eleme!ts have also allowe electro!ics li>e hea%ho!es tobecome smaller, a! the" are critical to the e!erg" sector( .hey are used inoil re0neries" hybrid ars" wind turbines" nulear ontrol rods"energy eient light bulbs" and solar panels( ther civilia! a%%licatio!si!clue water treatme!t, meical imagi!g, a! su%er allo"s( Rare earthelements are e'en more important to the military( As a result o% the=entagons -networ!+entri: war%are dotrine" the ,S military ishighly omputeried" so all o the $ a%%licatio!s o rare earth eleme!tsa%%l" to the militar"( hus, these elements are %ound in tan!s" warships"0ghter ?ets" smart munitions" missile de%ense systems" satellites"and ommuniation gear( @ighting a war without rare earth elementswould be li!e 0ghting without %uel or ammunition ( $t4s !o sur%rise that

a Congressional 0nding alled rare earth elements - ritial tonational seurit y(: Curre!tl", China ontrols 8Q perent o% the worldsprodution o% rare earth elements( .his gi'es China a massi'e upperhand in international disputes( )n response to a maritime disputewith Iapan" China ut o5 rare earth e/ports to Iapanese ustomersand ut global e/port 7uotas, claimi!g that the" were tr"i!g to “+ght%ollutio!(& )% China were to ut o5 rare earth e/ports to the ,nitedStates in response to a trade war" military onit" or a old war"they would bring the ,nited States to its !nees eonomially and


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militarily( el" !ow tha! it was i! the 1))s, the,nited States %aes a similar problem( Rare earth elements areabout as important as oil to our military and eonomy( )n the u!li>el"but %ossible e'ent o% war with China For e'en a old war %or thatmatterG" Ameria would 0nd itsel% in a similar prediament in regardto rare earth elements that


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the hands o% a single %oreign nation" partiularly a nation that ouldbe a ma?or ompetitor %or world power(

China war esalates to nulear e/tintion2ittner" %roessor o histor" emeritus at #3N lba!", 11[=awre!ce, 11*8)*2)11, “$s Nuclear .ar with Chi!a -ossible&,htt%'//www(hu!gto!%ost(com/lawre!ce*witt!er/!uclear*war*chi!a\b\1119559(html, 0$ A/12)1:2hile nulear weapons e/ist" there remains a danger that they willbe used( ter all, %or enturies international onits ha'e led towars" with nations employing their deadliest weapons( he curre!tdeterioration o% ,(S( relations with China might end up pro'iding uswith yet another e/ample o% this phenomenon( he gathering tensionbetween the ,nited States and China is lear enough( Disturbed byChinaLs growing eonomi and military strength" the ,(S(go'ernment reently hallenged ChinaLs laims in the South ChinaSea, i!crease the 3(#( militar" %rese!ce i! ustralia, a! ee%e!e 3(#(militar" ties with other !atio!s i! the -aci+c regio!( ccori!g to #ecretar" o#tate Tillar" Cli!to!, the 3!ite #tates was Dasserti!g our ow! %ositio! as a-aci+c %ower(D But need this lead to nulear war Not !ecessaril"( !"et, there are signs that it ould ( A%ter all" both the ,nited Statesand China possess large numbers o% nulear weapons( he 3(#(gover!me!t threate!e to attac> Chi!a with !uclear wea%o!s uri!g theorea! .ar a!, later, uri!g their co!ict over the uture o Chi!aWs oLshoreisla!s, Zuemo" a! ;atsu( $! the mist o the latter co!ro!tatio!, -resie!t0wight Eise!hower eclare %ublicl", a! chilli!gl", that 3(#( !uclearwea%o!s woul Dbe use 6ust eHactl" as "ou woul use a bullet or a!"thi!gelse(D course, China didnLt ha'e nulear weapons then( Now that itoes, %erha%s the behavior o !atio!al leaers will be more tem%erate( #utthe loose nulear threats o% ,(S( and So'iet go'ernment oialsduring the Cold 2ar" when both nations had 'ast nulear arsenals"should on'ine us that" e'en as the military ante is raised" nulearsaber+rattling persists( Some pundits argue that nulear weaponspre'ent wars between nulear+armed nationsP a!, amittel", therehave!Wt bee! ver" ma!" ** at least !ot "et( #ut the >argil 2ar o% 1888"between nulear+armed )ndia and nulear+armed =a!istan" shouldon'ine us that suh wars an our( $!ee, i! that case, the co!ictalmost sli%%e i!to a !uclear war( -a>ista!Ws oreig! secretar" threate!ethat, i the war escalate, his cou!tr" elt ree to use Da!" wea%o!D i! itsarse!al( During the onit" =a!istan did mo'e nulear weaponstoward its border" while )ndia" it is laimed" readied its own nulear

missiles %or an atta! on =a!istan( t the least, though, o!Wt !uclearwea%o!s eter a !uclear attac>M 0o the"M bviousl", NA. leaders didnLt%eel deterred" %or" throughout the Cold 2ar" NA.Ls strategy was torespond to a So'iet on'entional military atta! on 2estern Europeby launhing a 2estern nulear atta! on the nulear+armed So'iet,nion( Furthermore, i 3(#( gover!me!t ocials reall" believe that !ucleareterre!ce wor>e, the" woul !ot have resorte to cham%io!i!g D#tar .arsDa! its moer! varia!t, !atio!al missile ee!se( .h" are these vastl"eH%e!sive ** a! %robabl" u!wor>able ** militar" ee!se s"stems !eee i

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other !uclear %owers are eterre rom attac>i!g b" 3(#( !uclear mightM course, the bottom li!e or those merica!s co!vi!ce that !uclear wea%o!ssaeguar them rom a Chi!ese !uclear attac> might be that the 3(#( !ucleararse!al is ar greater tha! its Chi!ese cou!ter%art( oa", it is estimatedthat the ,(S( go'ernment possesses o'er ;"&&& nulear warheads"while the Chinese go'ernment has a total in'entory o% roughly 4&& (

;oreover, o!l" about :) o these Chi!ese !uclear wea%o!s ca! reach the3!ite #tates( Surely the ,nited States would win any nulear warwith China( #ut what would that 'itory entail An atta! withthese Chinese nulear weapons would immediately slaughter at least1& million Amerians in a great storm o% blast and 0re" while lea'ingmany more dying horribly o% si!ness and radiation poisoning( .heChinese death toll in a nulear war would be %ar higher( #oth nationswould be redued to smoldering" radioati'e wastelands( lso,radioati'e debris sent alo%t by the nulear e/plosions would blot

out the sun and bring on a nulear winter around the globe ++destroying agriulture" reating worldwide %amine" and generatinghaos and destrution( Moreo'er" in another deade the e/tent o%this atastrophe would be %ar worse( .he Chinese go'ernment isurrently e/panding its nulear arsenal" and by the year $&$& it ise/peted to more than double its number o% nulear weapons thatan hit the ,nited States( .he ,(S( go'ernment" in turn" has plans tospend hundreds o% billions o% dollars moderniing its nulearweapons and nulear prodution %ailities o'er the ne/t deade(


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$NC – China Cut+o5

China will respond by utting o5 rare earth supply – thatauses ,S+China onit

Cohen" writer %or NewSientist" Q[0avi, 5/28/A, New #cie!tist, “EarthWs !atural wealth' a! auit,&htt%'//e!viro!me!t(!ewscie!tist(com/cha!!el/earth/mg1:29)51(2))*earths*!atural*wealth*a!*auit(html

hese ma" sou! li>e rastic solutio!s, but as e" to its evelo%i!g i!ustries(.he ,S !ow imports o'er 8& per ent o% its so*calle Drare earthDmetals %rom China" aording to the ,S


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he most !otable si!gle eHam%le o Chi!a ta>i!g o! the 3(#( was i! 15,whe! Chi!ese com%a!ies acuire ;ag!eue!ch, a


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)mpat – .rade 2ar

Chinese REM dominane auses a trade war with the ,S –e/port 7uotas reate onit and e/ploitable military

'ulnerabilities(Robison T Ratnam 1& [-e!tago! =oses Co!trol o Bombs to Chi!a;etal ;o!o%ol" B" -eter Robiso! a!


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;achi!e ech!ologies $!c( “.he! thi!gs got slow or ma!uacturi!g, we hathis big em%t" sho% oor,& sai 0eFries, !uQQli!g a o%%"*eare %u%%"( “$t4s agreat stress reliever(& EH%e!sive to ;i!e he rare earths are chemicall"similar eleme!ts, with !ames such as "ttrium a! "s%rosium( Chi!a has thelargest share o worlwie reserves, about 89 %erce!t, a! the 3(#( is seco!,with 18 %erce!t, the 3(#( o rae .ar - )t was 'ery sudden and didnt gi'ethe industry any time to ad?ust": he said( - .his 7uota ation ouldris! a trade war (& For .ester! com%a!ies, Chi!a4s %olicies are creati!g thereal “u!obta!ium,& the +ctio!al mi!eral ought over i! James Camero!4s 2))+lm “vatar(& $t4s ta>i!g as lo!g as 1) wee>s to get !eo"mium mag!ets,ouble the %revious wait time, sai Joe #chra!tQ, grou% su%%l" chai! ma!agerat ;oog $!c( i! East urora, New or>( Te sai the ompany buyshundreds o% thousands o% magnets a year to ma!e motors %or ars"tru!s and weapons inluding Raytheons AMRAAM ** or va!ce;eium*Ra!ge ir*to*ir ;issile ** and #oeings Ioint Diret Atta!Munition" a tail 0n !it %or ma!ing preision+guided -smart: bombsout o% ordinary weapons(


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)mpat + ,S+China 2ar

Supply bottlene!s lead to China warAnthony" lead editor at Ui5 Da'is" )n(" 11

[#ebastia!, 0ecember 8), 2)11, w!er at # Toli!gs, -ast Colum!ist at ecca, Eitor at ol ?.eblogs, $!c@, egree rom 3!iversit" o EsseH, “Rareearth crisis' $!!ovate, or be crushe b" Chi!a&, EHtreme ech,htt%'//www(eHtremetech(com/eHtreme/111)2*rare*earth*crisis*i!!ovate*or*be*crushe*b"*chi!a/2.he doomsday e'ent that e'eryone is praying will ne'er ome topass, but which ever" .ester! !atio! is curre!tl" %la!!i!g or, is thee'entual ut+o5 o% Chinese rare earth e/ports( =ast "ear, AK o theworl4s rare earth metals were %rouce i! Chi!a S but over the last ew"ears, the Chinese go'ernment has been shutting down mines,oste!sibl" to sa'e what resoures it has, a! also reuci!g the amou!t o rare earth that ca! be eH%orte( =ast "ear, Chi!a %rouce some 18),)))

to!s o rare earths, but eH%ort restrictio!s mea!t that o!l" 85,))) to!s werese!t to other cou!tries( s a result, demand outside China now outstripssupply by some &"&&& tons per year, a! S as eH%ecte S ma!"cou!tries are !ow stoc>%ili!g the reserves that the" have( Almost e'ery2estern ountry is now digging around in their ba!yard %or rareearth+rih mud and sand" but itll probably be too little too late Sa! a!"wa", ue to geochemistr", there4s !o guara!tee that eH%lorers a!assa"ers will +! what the"4re loo>i!g or( he %rice o rare earths are alrea"goi!g u%, a! so are the !o!*Chi!ese*mae gagets a! giQmos that usethem( EHacerbati!g the issue "et urther, as tech!olog" grows moreava!ce, our reliane on the strange and magial properties o% rareearths inreases S a! Chi!a, with the worl4s largest wor>orce a! a +re

hose o rare earths, is %erectl" %oise to become the o!l" real %roucer osolar %ower %hotovoltaic cells, com%uter chi%s, a! more( $! short, Chi!a hasthe worl b" the short hairs, and when ombined with a hotting+upyber %ront" its not hard to see how this situation might de'ol'e into2orld 2ar )))( he alter!ate, ecological %oi!t o view, is that we4re sim%l"livi!g be"o! the %la!et4s mea!s( Either wa", strategic a! logistic %la!!i!gto ma>e the most o scarce metals a! mi!erals is !ow o!e o the mostim%orta!t tas>s that ace gover!me!ts a! cor%oratio!s( Eve! i large rareearth e%osits are ou! soo!, or we start rec"cli!g our gagets i! a big wa",the o!l" real solutio! is to somehow lesse! our relia!ce o! a +!ite resource(

Just li>e oil a! e!erg", this will %robabl" reuire rastic tech!ological lea%s($!stea o reuci!g the amou!t o ta!talum use i! ca%acitors, or i!ium i!

=C0 is%la"s, we will %robabl" have to iscover com%letel" iLere!t wa"s ostori!g e!erg" or is%la"i!g images( ;" mo!e"4s o! gra%he!e(

Neodymium shortages will ause a onit between the,S and China – shapes relations and geopolitiallandsape o% Asia6eithead" ##C News reporter" 11


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[lastair, Jul" 12, 2)11, BBC, “Rare Earth Eleme!ts ;a" Lect Future e mi!i!g them %ractical(Dhe worl * Ameria, Britai!, ever"o!e * relies on what China eH%orts tomeet their !ees,D sa"s Jim #ims rom ;ol"cor%, the com%a!" ru!!i!gCalior!iaWs ;ou!tai! -ass mi!e( Ds Chi!aWs eH%orts are bei!g restricte, weare loo>i!g at outright shortages o rare earths, %robabl" this "ear a! !eHt,Dhe as( mericaWs o!l" rare earths mi!e is locate i! the ;o6ave 0esert i!the 3# south*west #o the huge iggers a! truc>s movi!g vast volumes oroc>s arou!, the ail" eH%losive charges blasti!g the mou!tai!sie a%art,are harvesti!g o!e o the worlWs biggest e%osits( he mi!e close ow! 1)"ears ago whe! a oo o chea% Chi!ese rare earth eleme!ts mae %ro+tshar to mai!tai!( 3!til 6ust a ew wee>s ago, ;ol"cor% was as>i!g or the 3#gover!me!tWs hel% to cover costs o iggi!g these eleme!ts out, se%arati!gthem oL a! mouli!g them i!to metal allo"s( But the %rice has go!e u% sora%il", rare earths is sue!l" loo>i!g li>e a goo busi!ess( =ast "ear Chi!aWseH%orts o rare earth eleme!ts to Ja%a! were i!terru%te uri!g a %oliticalrow over territorial waters, which se!t shuers arou! the worl( D2eshould be worried when any ountry ompletely dominates any rawmaterial supplies,D sa"s Christi!e -arthemore, rom the Ce!ter or Newmerica! #ecurit" i! .ashi!gto! 0C( D$ o!Wt thi!> Chi!a is u!iuel" at aulti! this situatio!, but they are using the politial le'erage thatWs eriverom cor!eri!g the mar>et the" have as a!" cou!tr" woul( D$Wm sure mericawoul o the same,D he as( $!creasi!g ema! he creatio! o %erma!e!tmag!ets, a >e" com%o!e!t i! so ma!" gree! tech!ologies, is o!e o the >e"uses o rare earths( he" ma>e the !ew ge!eratio! o wi! turbi!es moreecie!t a! reliable( But there are such a! i!creasi!g variet" o uses orthese eleme!ts, ow! to glass %olishi!g, that there are!Wt e!ough o the rawmaterials to go arou!( he s%ee o Chi!aWs growth mea!s the cou!tr" isco!sumi!g more o its ow! rare earths, which has le to a ro% i! the amou!t

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14114107http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14114107


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available or eH%ort( D)t is a seurity issue strictl" i! the se!se that theseminerals are used in ritial military omponents or their %ro%erties,which we o!Wt curre!tl" have substitutes or,D sa"s Christi!e -arthemore( D)%the pries go way up or there are actual su%%l" shortages, it an dri'epries up o'er the long term on military prourement * or it ca! mea!there are %arts that we ca!Wt ma!uacture here i! the 3!ite #tates

a!"more(D $t i!creases the !ee or a! i!ustr" to eHtract the ore a! %rocessthe materials( Dhe eleme!ts are all miHe together i! the ore we mi!e,D Jim#ims sa"s( D.e tur! them i!to a liui, a! let these eleme!ts settle out i!tooHies which are li>e %owers,D he as( $!sie a warehouse at the mi!e areoQe!s o huge white sac>s, each weighi!g a metric to!!e a! each worth72)),))) ?^125,A))@( Dhose %owers the! get tur!e i!to metals asmag!ets or use i! their oHie orms or a variet" o uses i! a variet" oiLere!t substa!ces,D ;r #ims sa"s( s !ew uses are ou! or materials li>erare earth eleme!ts, there will be more ompetition" and aess tothem may hange the shape o% global politis(


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A.K China Monopoly Collapse

No China monopoly ollapse – re0nement still has tohappen in China

6i%ton" writer %or )n'estor )ntel" 1[Jac>, 1/12/1:, $!vestor $!tel, “Jac> =ito! reutes .#J article' _Tow the


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,ni7ueness


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NeodymiumNeodymium supplies %or wind energy are limited – butdemand will ontinue to inreaseCho" analyst and reporter %or =hys(org" 1$

[Re!ee, #e%tember 2), 2)12, -h"s(org, “Rare earth metals' .ill we havee!oughMD, %h"s(org/!ews/2)12*)*rare*earth*metals(html.o pro'ide most o% our power through renewables would ta!ehundreds o% times the amount o% rare earth metals that we aremining today " sai homas e**.ish .i! %ower has grow! arou!A %erce!t a "ear, i!creasi!g b" a actor o 1) over the last ecae, !ote-eter eleme!, rthur 0( #tor>e ;emorial -roessor o


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restricti!g eH%orts to %reserve resources a! %rotect the e!viro!me!t,causi!g %rices to soar( oa", the ,nited States is 1&& perentdependent on imports %or rare earth metals( From the mi*19)sthrough the 1)s, however, ;ol"cor%Ws ;ou!tai! -ass mi!e i! Calior!ia wasthe worlWs mai! source o rare earth metals( s the 3(#( share o rare earthmetal %rouctio! ecli!e, Chi!a use gover!me!t su%%ort, research a!

evelo%me!t, trai!i!g %rograms, chea% labor a! low %rices to evelo% itssu%%l" chai!, i!creasi!g its share o rare earth metal %rouctio! rom 2A%erce!t i! 1) to A %erce!t i! 2)11( $! ;arch, the 3(#(, Ja%a! a! theEuro%ea! 3!io! loge a com%lai!t with the .orl rae rga!iQatio! overChi!aWs limits o! rare earth eH%orts( $! res%o!se, Chi!a a!!ou!ce that it willeH%ort 8),9 more metric to!s o rare earth metals i! 2)12 tha! it i i!2)11(


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Dysprosium

=ries are lowWless prodution and e/port 7uotasMining(om $&14

[Fri> Els, 1//18, ;i!i!g(com, “Chi!a4s 2)18 rare earth %rouctio!, eH%ortca%s ca!4t sto% %rices ivi!g,& htt%'//www(mi!i!g(com/chi!as*2)18*rare*earth*out%ut*eH%ort*ca%s*ca!t*sto%*%rices*alli!g*AA:/, A/1/1:, $CChina is responsible %or more than 8;9 o% the global supply o% rareearths a! over the wee>e! the cou!tr"Ws ;i!istr" o =a! a!Resources ?;=R@, a!!ou!ce that the +rst %rouctio! uota or rare earthsthis "ear will be set at :9,)) to!!es(!other uota will be a!!ou!ce later this "ear a! the allotme!t is broal"i! li!e with rece!t out%ut ca%s(2)12 out%ut has !ot bee! isclose, but the %rouctio! uota totale 8,))to!!es i! 2)11,accori!g to Bloomberg( he ;=R also set %rouctio! ortu!gste! co!ce!trate at :8,5)) to!!es a! a!timo!" at 8A,9) to!!es(

$! 0ecember Chi!a %egge 9*mo!th eH%ort uotas at 15,5)1 to!!es, alsobroal" i! li!e with the 2)12 +gure( he eH%ort uotas G which Ja%a! a! the 3# too> all the wa" to the .orl rae rga!iQatio! is%ute resolutio! bo" G a%%ears to have become amea!i!gless eHercise(China only e/ported some 14"&&& tonnes o% rare earths throughauthoriQe cha!!els uri!g the whole o last "ear, a mere &9 o% theallowed e/port(A ra!down on illegal mining" onsolidation o% the industry under a%ew large produers" mothballing mines G Chi!aWs !umber o!e %roucerrece!tl" ecie to eHte! its %rouctio! halt to three mo!ths G and the7uotas ha'e !ot hel%e to put a oor under REE pries whih ha'e

ontinued to %all rom 2)11Ws stratos%heric levels( he value o ma!" o the 1A eleme!ts use i! a variet" o i!ustries i!clui!ggree! tech!olog", ee!ce s"stems a! co!sumer electro!ics are ow! moretha! )K(.hile mi*2)12 %rices loo>e as i it will begi! to stabiliQe, 'alues ontinueto so%ten(bu!a!t, less valuable REEs have eH%erie!ce the shar%est reversals(=a!tha!um oHie G use i! ceramics a! uel catal"sts G or eHam%le roserom a %rice o 6ust 7(A1/>g i! 2)) to average 711A/>g i! the thir uartero 2)11( B" the thir uarter o 2)12 it was ow! to 71(5:/>g(s o A Ja!uar" 2)18 it4s alle! urther to 711/>g( $!sie Chi!a that same>ilogram costs 7A(5:(

his %rice behaviour ca! be see! across the boar' cerium oHie, use to%olish O scree!s a! le!ses, is trai!g at 712 rom a! all*time high o 711i! the #e%tember 2)11 uarter( $! 2)) the %rice or cerium oHie was 7:(59(-raseo"mium, use as a! allo" i! aircrat e!gi!es a! weler goggles, wasavailable rom Chi!a i! 2)) or 71/>g( ter %ea>i!g i! the seco! hal o2)11 alo!g with all the other rare earths it was still %rice at 7198/>g uri!gthe +rst uarter o 2)12( ;o!a"Ws be!chmar> %rice was 75, ow! rom71)5 last #e%tember(

http://www.mlr.gov.cn/zwgk/zytz/201301/t20130105_1172721.htmhttp://www.mlr.gov.cn/zwgk/zytz/201301/t20130105_1172721.htmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/china-sets-first-rare-earth-output-quota-for-2013-at-46-900-tons.htmlhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2012-12/25/c_132062310.htmhttp://www.mlr.gov.cn/zwgk/zytz/201301/t20130105_1172721.htmhttp://www.mlr.gov.cn/zwgk/zytz/201301/t20130105_1172721.htmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/china-sets-first-rare-earth-output-quota-for-2013-at-46-900-tons.htmlhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2012-12/25/c_132062310.htm


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he %rice o a >ilogram o samarium oHie i!crease ramaticall" rom amere 78(:)/>g i! 2)) to average 71)8/>g i! 2)11( 3se i! 6et +ghterelectrical s"stems amo!g other a%%licatio!s, samarium actuall" i!crease i!value rom the +rst to the seco! uarter o 2)12, rom 7A8/>g to 72/>g(Now it has %lummete to 725/>g ree*o!*boar while the omestic %rice i!Chi!a is o!l" 7A(A) or samarium(

Teav", scarcer REEs have ge!erall" hel u% better, but some haveeH%erie!ce %rice ecli!es o more tha! 5)K(Neo"mium oHies, use i! wi!mills, co!ti!ue to slum% G rom 788/>g i!Z8 2)11 to 71)5(81/>g i! Z8 2)12 to 7)/>g toa"( h"bri vehicle i!greie!t, dysprosium" ro!eted %rom a prie o%311(8!g i! 2)) to average 31"8!g i! 2)11( $t %ea>e at a!asto!ishi!g 72,8)) b" #e%tember o that "ear(0"s%rosium, also use i! co!6u!ctio! with va!aium a! other eleme!ts i!ma>i!g laser materials, has !ow give! u% more tha! 71,5)) %er >ilogramand now goes %or 3V4&!g( $!sie Chi!a it is worth o!l" 785/>g(

Dysprosium pries are lowWonsumers la! on0dene inthe mar!et.op Mag $&14[1)/1:/18, o% ;ag, “0"s%rosium oHie %rices o! the ecrease,&htt%'//www(to%mag(!et/NE.#/2)181)1:/9A(html, A/1/1:, $CBE$J$N< ?sia! ;etal@ 1: ct 18 * #ome su%%liers lower "s%rosium oHieoLers slightl" to %romote eals at %rese!t, but %ew o onsumers plan toplae orders at urrent prie le'els(

source rom a se%aratio! %la!t whose %rouctio! volume is :t%m i! #outhChi!a claime that the" receive rare i!uiries or "s%rosium oHie i!

ctober( .hey lower their 7uotation a bit to R;B2,)))/>g ?,SD4$Q!g@!ow, down by arou! R;B5)/>g ?,SD!gG %rom that o% last wee! (

he source isclose that e! users la! on0dene in urrent mar!et"so they delay purhasing the material %urther(

source rom a smelter in South China on0rmed that dysprosiumo/ide mar!et remains so%t with the mai!stream %rices hoveri!g atR;B1,))*2,1))/>g ?3#081)*8:8/>g@ at %rese!t, ow! slightl" rom those olast wee>( s the" still have e!ough stoc>s i! ha!, the" are !ot i! a hurr" torebuil stoc>s i! the !ear term(

Dysprosium pries are down 1$($9Metal Miner $&14[1//18, “Rare Earths -rices #till 0ro%%i!g' 0"s%rosium Hie Falls 12(2Kver .ee>,& htt%'//agmetalmi!er(com/2)18/)1/)/rare*earths*%rices*still*ro%%i!g*"s%rosium*oHie*alls*12*2*over*wee>/, A/1/1:, $C

his %ast wee>, dysprosium oHie dropped 1$($ perent o! thewee>l" Rare Earths ;;$`, ma!ing it the wee!s biggest mo'er( erbium

http://agmetalminer.com/monthly-mmi-report-december-2012/http://agmetalminer.com/monthly-mmi-report-december-2012/


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oHie saw a 9(A %erce!t ro%*oL this wee>( he %rice o %raseo"mium oHiealso ecrease, ow! 9(1 %erce!t rom the %revious wee>(

Dysprosium demands and priing low now

Uhe?iang and Dongyang" Magnet manu%aturers and administratorso% Asian oal and rare earth mining " 1?8**1:, #tro!g ;ag!et News, “Rare Earth %rices stable or volatile wee>&,htt%'//www(stro!g*mag!et(com/e!/!ews/!ewsi!o(as%MiVA9, accesse A*1*1:, =-@Rare stea" this wee>, a slight ow!war mar>et as a whole , the mar>etema! seems to be rather ull , tur!over is !ot livel" e!ough ,ma!uacturers , traers shi%%e %ositive attitue (

his wee> la!tha!um, cerium %roucts is !ot much cha!ge i! the basic %rice ,:N la!tha!um oHie is curre!tl" uote b" traers g , lower %rices eve! i! :1)) "ua! / >g , with !o votes at8,:5) "ua! / >g( erbium oHie without a tic>et arou! 25) "ua! / >g , withvotes i! the 82))*885) "ua! / >g(

his wee> the %rice cha!ges as well as %raseo"mium , !eo"mium ,"s%rosium, gaoli!ium %roucts( -raseo"mium !eo"mium metal %ricesthis wee> lowere its 5,))) *1(5 millio! / to!, %raseo"mium , !eo"miumoHie %rices ell also 1),))) "ua! / to! , es%ite the curre!t relativel" high%rices o both have ecli!e i! Februar" , com%are with last "ear but orslightl" higher tha! , a! rom cou!tr" to activel" %romote !ew e!erg"vehicles sta!%oi!t, %raseo"mium , !eo"mium metal although the latterma" have ro%%e , but the %rice ecli!es will !ot be too big , !or too astuctuatio!s(

his wee>Ws tra!sactio! %rice o "s%rosium oHie basicall" ow! to 1) "ua!/ to! or less , mercha!ts oLer at or ow! i! the ra!ge o about 5),)))"ua! / to! , ema! a lot o eserte , !earl" a wee> ;easure the volume osmall busi!ess %rocureme!t ( 0"s%rosium iro! a! metal "s%rosium haveiLere!t ra!ges o %rice ecli!e ( ther oHies , such as erbium oHie , !eo"mium oHie , etc(, about +vethousa! ollars a smooth or cha!ges / to! %rice , the latter tem%oraril"ve!ors have eH%resse %ositive eH%ectatio!s too high , most stable base(ccori!g to et tur!arou! , short*termema! or the release was !ot much room ( Tolmium oHie with tic>et%rices curre!tl" at arou! :2),))) "ua! / to!, the busi!ess %urchases omore tha! 1 to!(

Dysprosium pries low nowRare Earth News 14

http://www.strong-magnet.com/en/news/newsinfo.asp?id=76http://www.strong-magnet.com/en/news/newsinfo.asp?id=76


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?Rare Earth News, 12*)9*18, Chi!a u!gste!, “Teav" rare earth "s%rosiumoHie %rices hit a our*mo!th low&, htt%'//!ews(chi!atu!gste!(com/e!/rare*earth*!ews/85A5*re!*181:, accesse A*1*1:, =-@0ue to the rare earth reserve, hitti!g hot mar>ets such co!cer! is !ot u% tothe eH%ecte ela", the severit" o the rare earth oHie, %raseo"mium ,!eo"mium , "s%rosium oHie %rices grauall" lower , ata showe that the

average %rice o "s%rosium oHie is curre!tl" about 1A5 "ua! / to!,com%are with the high %oi!t i! ugust has ell 2A( %erce!t , a recor low i!our mo!ths , a!al"sts sai the curre!t tra!sactio! eserte , rare earth%rices still urther ow!war tre! (#e%aratio! o rare earth e!ter%rises have cease %rouctio! or hel% to%rotect the %rice(;i!metals Rare Earth the 5th eve!i!g a!!ou!ceme!t shows that itssubsiiaries have com%lete ma!ator" %rouctio! %la! i! 2)18 , rece!tl"sto%%e %rouctio! ( $t is u!erstoo that the ow!stream mar>et is uieta! %rivate crac> ow! o! rare earth mi!e, bac> i! #e%tember a! ctober,most o et bro>e out, but the state %urchasi!g a!storage is tur!e o! , it is still !ot sure, great wisom !ews age!c"associatio!s a! busi!ess %eo%le also were !ot to receive messages(!al"sts believe that the meium a! lo!g term, the releva!t liste com%a!"is eH%ecte to co!ti!ue to be!e+t rom the cou!tr" Ws rare earth i!ustr"co!soliatio!( $t is u!erstoo b" the ;i!istr" le Rare large grou% %rogramhas bee! submitte to the #tate , o!ce the %rogram is a%%rove rare largegrou% ormatio! is eH%ecte to ociall" start ater the 0e%ut" ;i!ister o$!ustr" a! #u Bo also sai %ublicl" that the ormatio! o rare large grou%%rogram is eH%ecte beore the e! o ba>e , i! orer to better im%rovei!ustr" co!ce!tratio!, %rouctio! uotas , ma!ator" %la! , the !ew mi!i!g%ermits a! other %olicies i! ge!eral will be i!cli!e to a large grou% i! theuture( But the big !ews is !ot "et e+!ite grou% i!tegratio!(

http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/rare-earth-news/35758-ren-1314http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/rare-earth-news/35758-ren-1314http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/rare-earth-news/35758-ren-1314http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/rare-earth-news/35758-ren-1314http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/rare-earth-news/35758-ren-1314http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/rare-earth-news/35758-ren-1314http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/rare-earth-news/35758-ren-1314http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/rare-earth-news/35758-ren-1314


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REMsDemand %or rare earth elements are inreasing – butsupply issues result in global prie sho!s)HS" global in%ormation ompany" 14

[$!ormatio! Ta!li!g #ervice, Ju!e 8, 2)18, “-rici!g $!stabilit", et, #a"s $T# #tu"&, htt%'//%ress(ihs(com/%ress*release/cou!tr"*i!ustr"*orecasti!g*meia/%rici!g*i!stabilit"*growi!g*ema!*a!*su%%l"*ears" BAording to a new $T# Chemical ?N#E' $T#@ global mar!et researhreport" a growing global dependene upon a multitude o% di'ersetehnologiesSinluding com%uters, smart %ho!es, Os, lighti!g s"stems,h"bri automobiles, lie*savi!g meical tech!ologies, o5shore windturbines, %etroleum re+!i!g, microwave commu!icatio!s a! laser*guiemissile ee!se s"stems ** has le%t manu%aturers and ountries'ulnerable to the a'ailability and uninterrupted supply Flargel" romChi!a@ o% some >e" eleme!ts use to %rouce these tech!ologies, callerare earths( )n the report" the )HS Chemial Rare Earth Minerals and=roduts Report" prodution and onsumption o% these industrialminerals in $&1$ was more than 1&& thousand metri tons ?;@(0uri!g the stu" %erio o 2)12 to 2)1A, )HS estimates a'erage globaldemand %or rare earth produts will grow by Q(V perent annually"reahing more than 1;& >M. o% onsumption" with China leadingonsumption growth at (4 perent annually( Rare earths are a set o 1Achemical eleme!ts i! the %erioic table, more s%eci+call", the 15 la!tha!ies,%lus sca!ium a! "ttrium, which share similar chemical %ro%erties( 0es%itetheir !ame, rare earth eleme!ts are airl" abu!a!t( .he hallenge %ormanu%aturers and ountries dependent upon these mineralsthough" is two+%old( @irst" they generally our naturally as mi/tures

o% 'arious rare earth elements and are not always %ound ineonomially e/ploitable onentrations( Seond" the minerals mustbe mined" then onentrated i!to rare earth oHies" and +!all",separated i!to i!iviual rare earth eleme!ts a! com%ou!s( A ma?orproportion o% the worlds rare earth reser'es are loated in China –the prodution and onsumption o% rare earths is dominated byChina( China alone aounted %or more than ; perent o% world rareearth prodution in $&1$" and onsumed appro/imately Q& perent( $! terms o co!sum%tio!, Ja%a! ollowe with a%%roHimatel" 15 %erce!t oworl %rouctio! i! 2)12, but has !o omestic rare earth reserves( .hisimbalane reates an unom%ortable dependene %or Iapan and otherountries re7uiring both a steady supply o% these elements andpriing stability( Rece!tl", these issues came to a hea i! a ramatic wa"accori!g to #ama!tha .ietlisbach, %ri!ci%al a!al"st o s%ecialt" chemicalsat $T# Chemical a! the re%ort4s lea author( “#u%%l" isru%tio!s over thelast ew "ears i!terru%te Ja%a!ese automotive a! electro!ics i!ustr"%rouctio! a! se!t shoc> waves through the global ma!uacturi!g i!ustriesthat rel" o! rare earths,& .ietlisbach sai “ther gover!me!ts have realiQetheir !atio!al securit" i!terests a! i!ustrial sectors were vul!erable, sineChina dominates the mar!et in terms o% both supply and demand,&

http://press.ihs.com/press-release/country-industry-forecasting-media/pricing-instability-growing-demand-and-supply-fearshttp://press.ihs.com/press-release/country-industry-forecasting-media/pricing-instability-growing-demand-and-supply-fearshttp://press.ihs.com/press-release/country-industry-forecasting-media/pricing-instability-growing-demand-and-supply-fearshttp://press.ihs.com/press-release/country-industry-forecasting-media/pricing-instability-growing-demand-and-supply-fears


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she sai( “.he supply shortages also resulted in unpreedented priespi!es" impating global onsumers o% these materials( $t was a wa>e*u% call to aress iversit" o su%%l" a! to eH%lore %ossible substitutio!s(

his, i! tur!, has le to ma!" !ew mi!i!g %ro6ects bei!g a!!ou!ce globall",with rare earth ore as the mai! %rouct(&

REM pries and supply are stable now+ our e'idene isprediti'eEditorial Sta5 %rom the Magnetis #usiness and.ehnology +Q+1?“et or -erma!e!t ;ag!ets to Reach 715 Billio! b" 2)1&,htt%'//www(mag!eticsmagaQi!e(com/mai!/!ews/global*mar>et*or*%erma!e!t*mag!ets*to*reach*15*billio!*b"*2)1/, accesse A/1/1:, ==;@.ith the heav" relia!ce o! Neo"mium mag!ets i! ma!uacturi!g, rare earth?RE@ materials neodymium and dysprosium are playing a 'eryimportant role because o the scarcit" o these materials a! theomi!a!ce o a si!gle cou!tr" ?Chi!a@ i! %rovii!g them( .he permanent

magnet industry will start to see the end o% serious RE shortages asnew supplies begin to hit the mar!et during $&1 and beyond" withnew designs and new materials( %%licatio!s relate to %erma!e!tmag!et irect curre!t motors, brushless irect curre!t ?B=0C@ a! brush*t"%e?-;0C@, a! %ower ge!eratio! will be the largest usage segme!t o!eo"mium*iro!*boro! ?NFeB@ %erma!e!t mag!ets, ollowe b" voice coilmotors ?OC;s@ i! is> rives, because o the !ee or reuce siQe a! higher%erorma!ce( he thir ma6or usage segme!t is h"bri a! electricautomotive rives( #everal rare earth ?RE@ eleme!ts are esse!tial i!greie!tsi! the highest %erorma!ce mag!ets available i! the worl toa"P thesemag!ets have e!able mi!iaturiQatio! a! a sig!i+ca!t i!crease i! %owere!sit" i! hu!res o a%%licatio!s( he mar>et eH%erie!ce a boom i! 2)11,

ue to i!crease ema! or RE %erma!e!t mag!ets( But as demandinreased" supply hain interruptions resulted in a sarity o% RE %erma!e!t mag!ets( .his a5eted the mar!et ad'ersely" and itplunged in $&1$( As the supply o% REs beame stable" the mar!et

beame stable" and it is e/peted to %urther stabilie in the %uture (

.his stabiliation is predited beause o% a redution in the amounto% dysprosium ontent in Neo magnets as well as a mar!edimpro'ement in o'erall magneti properties o% %errite magnets(


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A.K 2. Ruling

China wont %ollow the 2. rulingRe'ol'e" sustainability news soure" 14

[1/1/18, Revolve, “Rare Earth' Chi!ese #haows o! “


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A.K Supply )nu/No new supply inu/ %or rare+earth metals – no mines willbe ready soon enoughAdams" Editor o% Natural News nline" 1&[;i>e, Natural News, “


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6in!s


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6in! –


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6in! – 2ind

,ni7ue lin! – Critial rare earth supplies neessary %orwind are limited now but demand is !eeping pae – the

plan auses massi'e bottlene!s and prie spi!es +we are1&&9 dependent on ChinaCho" analyst and reporter %or =hys(org" 1$[Re!ee, /2)/12, DRare earth metals' .ill we havee!oughM,D%h"s(org/!ews/2)12*)*rare*earth*metals(html.o pro'ide most o% our power through renewables would ta!ehundreds o% times the amount o% rare earth metals that we aremining today" sai homas e;emorial -roessor o


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perent o% hea'y rare earth metals suh as terbium and dysprosium"used in wind turbines( $! 2))5, it began restriting e/ports topreser'e resoures a! %rotect the e!viro!me!t, ausing pries to soar(

oa", the ,nited States is 1&& perent dependent on imports %orrare earth metals( From the mi*19)s through the 1)s, however,MolyorpLs Mountain =ass mine in Cali%ornia was the worldLs main

soure o% rare earth metals( As the ,(S( share o% rare earth metalprodution delined" China used go'ernment support" researh andde'elopment" training programs" heap labor and low pries tode'elop its supply hain" inreasing its share o% rare earth metalprodution %rom $Q perent in 188& to 8Q perent in $&11( $! ;arch,the 3(#(, Ja%a! a! the Euro%ea! 3!io! loge a com%lai!t with the .orl

rae rga!iQatio! over Chi!aWs limits o! rare earth eH%orts( $! res%o!se,Chi!a a!!ou!ce that it will eH%ort 8),9 more metric to!s o rare earthmetals i! 2)12 tha! it i i! 2)11(

And" no turns or thumpers – only go'ernment inenti'es%or wind prodution trigger the lin! – best studies pro'eetco!ce!tratio! have harme ma!uacturi!g +rms( For eHam%le, i! 1A Uaireco!trolle :K o the cobalt su%%l" a! "et %olitical u!rest i! Uaire resultei! a isru%tio! to global su%%l" that became >!ow! as the “Cobalt Crisis&(!other co!tributor to su%%l" ris> or REEs is the act that they areominedJ indi'idual REEs are not mined separately( REEs are %oundtogether in geologial deposits" rendering mining o% indi'idualelements eonomially ineient( .he supply o% any indi'idual REEdepends on the geology o% the deposits" the osts o% the e/tration

tehnology employed" and the prie o% the bas!et o% rare earths ?RE@(Fi!all", REEs ha'e ome under global srutiny due to theen'ironmental and soial onditions under whih they are mined"%urther inreasing their supply ris! ( Slo!so et al( .hile the literatureco!tai!s a number o% reports that e'aluate di5erent aspets o% REa'ailability" Ra!ol%h E( irchai!, -h(0(, a! colleagues evaluate uture%ote!tial ema! sce!arios or REEs with a ocus o! the issue o comi!i!g(

he" a!al"Qe the su%%l" o la!tha!um, cerium, %raseo"mium, !eo"mium,samarium, euro%ium, gaoli!ium, terbium, "s%rosium a! "ttrium u!er


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various sce!arios, a! %ro6ecte the ema! or these 1) rare eartheleme!ts through 2)85( $! %articular, they estimated resourere7uirements %or eletri 'ehiles and windturbines ?re'olutionarydemand areas %or REEs@ rom %erorma!ce s%eci+catio!s a! vehicle salesor turbi!e e%lo"me!t %ro6ectio!s( @uture demand was estimated %or arange o% senarios inluding o!e evelo%e b" the $!ter!atio!al E!erg"

ge!c" ?$E@ with adoption o% eletri 'ehiles and wind turbines at arate onsistent with stabiliation o% C$ in the atmosphere at a le'elo% ;& ppm( $! o!e sce!ario, demand %or dysprosium and neodymiumould be higher than $"V&& and Q&& perent respeti'ely( .o meetthat need" prodution o% dysprosium would ha'e to grow eah yearat nearly twie the histori growth rate %or rare earth supplies( hea%%licatio!s that will be most !egativel" aLecte b" co!strai!ts i! theseREEs ?i(e(, i!crease costs@ will be those e%e!e!t u%o! high %erorma!cemag!ets( %%licatio!s such as %etroleum re+!i!g, which e%e! o! eleme!tswhose su%%l" is %ro6ecte to eHcee ema!, ma" be %ositivel" aLecte i%rimar" %roucers i!crease overall %rouctio! to meet the higher ema! ors%eci+c eleme!ts( $ a seco!ar" mar>et emerges to meet the higher ema!or s%eci+c eleme!ts ?i(e(, rec"cli!g o mag!ets, but !ot catal"sts@, the!,give! that the %ortolio o rec"cle REEs woul be sig!i+ca!tl" iLere!t romthe %ortolio o %rimar" su%%l", the overall su%%l" %ortolio o REEs coulcha!ge( ((($! the e!, pries are not the only %ores that will inuenethe REE mar!ets(


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ech!olog" News [see Figure $'5 $! 2))8, Chi!a %rouce o!l" 1 %erce!t othe worl4s solar %a!els but b" 2)) its share ha grow! to 8 %erce!t( $!2))8, 3(#( %rouctio! o solar %a!els accou!te or 1: %erce!t o the worltotal, but b" 2)) the 3(#( share ha alle! to 6ust : %erce!t( -rouctio! i!cou!tries other tha! Chi!a ell rom 5 %erce!t o the worl mar>et i! 2))8 to5 %erce!t i! 2))( .he boom in Chinas solar panel prodution hasdri'en down the pries o% similar ,(S( produts by around ;&perent, whih is goo or co!sumers i! the short*ru! but not good %or,(S( manu%aturing ?obs(9 #olar %a!el ma!uacturer #ol"!ra, $!c(, ori!sta!ce, es%ite more tha! 75)) millio! i! eeral gra!ts a! loa!guara!tees, eclare ba!>ru%tc" i! #e%tember 2)11, citi!g its i!abilit" tocom%ete with chea%er Chi!ese solar %a!els(A Curre!tl", as Figure $$ shows " anumber o% tehnologies depend on rare earths( For eHam%le,!eo"mium a! la!tha!um are esse!tial com%o!e!ts i! the !ewestge!eratio! o batteries use i! h"bri a! electric vehicles( hus, omesticma!uacture o these vehicles e%e!s o! Chi!a4s willi!g!ess to eH%ort rareearths( .i! %ower is also %romote as a wa" to ecrease merica! e!erg"e%e!e!ceP however, as with electric cars, the magnets in wind+poweredeletrial generators re7uire neodymium(


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ingredient in some eletri 'ehiles motors( .he supply o% bothelements W urrently imported almost e/lusi'ely %rom China Would %ae signi0ant shortages in oming years, the research ou!(

he stu", le b" a team o researchers at ;$4s ;aterials #"stems=aborator" S %ostoc Elisa lo!so -h0 41), research scie!tist Richar Roth-h0 42, se!ior research scie!tist Fra!> R( Fiel -h0 45 a! %ri!ci%al

research scie!tist Ra!ol%h irchai! -h0 4 S has bee! %ublishe o!li!e i!the 6our!al E!viro!me!tal #cie!ce ] ech!olog", a! will a%%ear i! %ri!t i! aorthcomi!g issue( hree researchers rom For ;otor Com%a!" are co*authors( he stu" loo>e at 1) so*calle “rare earth metals,& a grou% o 1Aeleme!ts that have similar %ro%erties a! which S es%ite their !ame S are!ot %articularl" rare at all( ll 1) elements stuie ha'e some uses inhigh+teh e7uipment" in many ases in tehnology related to low+arbon energy( those 1), two are li!ely to %ae serious supplyhallenges in the oming years( .he biggest hallenge is li!ely to be%or dysprosiumK Demand ould inrease by $"V&& perent over the!eHt 25 "ears, accori!g to the stu"( Neodymium demand ouldinrease by as muh as Q&& perent( Both materials have eHce%tio!almag!etic %ro%erties that ma>e them es%eciall" well*suite to use i! highl"ecie!t, lightweight motors a! batteries( A single large wind turbine ?rate at about 8(5 megawatts@ typially ontains V&& !ilograms" orabout 1"4&& pounds" o% rare earth metals( co!ve!tio!al car uses alittle more tha! o!e %ou! o rare earth materials S mostl" i! small motors,such as those that ru! the wi!shiel wi%ers S but a! electric car might use!earl" 1) times as much o the material i! its lightweight batteries a!motors( Curre!tl", China produes 8 perent o% the worlds rare earthmetals" ma!ing those metals -the most geographially onentratedo% any ommerial+sale resoure,& irchai! sa"s( Tistoricall",prodution o% these metals has inreased by only a %ew perent eahyear, with the greatest s%urts reachi!g about 12 %erce!t a!!uall"( But muhhigher inreases in prodution will be needed to meet the e/petednew demand, the stu" shows( Chi!a has about 5) %erce!t o >!ow!reserves o rare earth metalsP the 3!ite #tates also has sig!i+ca!t e%osits(Mining o% these materials in the ,nited States had eased almostentirely S mostl" beause o% en'ironmental regulations that ha'einreased the ost o% prodution S but im%rove mi!i!g methos arema>i!g these sources usable agai!(


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6in! + Solar

,ni7ue lin! – Critial rare earth supplies neessary %orsolar are limited now but demand is !eeping pae – the

plan auses massi'e bottlene!s and prie spi!es +we are1&&9 dependent on ChinaCho" analyst and reporter %or =hys(org" 1$[Re!ee, /2)/12, DRare earth metals' .ill we havee!oughM,D%h"s(org/!ews/2)12*)*rare*earth*metals(html.o pro'ide most o% our power through renewables would ta!ehundreds o% times the amount o% rare earth metals that we aremining today" sai homas e;emorial -roessor o


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perent o% hea'y rare earth metals suh as terbium and dysprosium"used in wind turbines( $! 2))5, it began restriting e/ports topreser'e resoures a! %rotect the e!viro!me!t, ausing pries to soar(

oa", the ,nited States is 1&& perent dependent on imports %orrare earth metals( From the mi*19)s through the 1)s, however,MolyorpLs Mountain =ass mine in Cali%ornia was the worldLs main

soure o% rare earth metals( As the ,(S( share o% rare earth metalprodution delined" China used go'ernment support" researh andde'elopment" training programs" heap labor and low pries tode'elop its supply hain" inreasing its share o% rare earth metalprodution %rom $Q perent in 188& to 8Q perent in $&11( $! ;arch,the 3(#(, Ja%a! a! the Euro%ea! 3!io! loge a com%lai!t with the .orl

rae rga!iQatio! over Chi!aWs limits o! rare earth eH%orts( $! res%o!se,Chi!a a!!ou!ce that it will eH%ort 8),9 more metric to!s o rare earthmetals i! 2)12 tha! it i i! 2)11(

And" no turns or thumpers – only go'ernment inenti'es%or solar prodution trigger the lin! – best studies pro'eetco!ce!tratio! have harme ma!uacturi!g +rms( For eHam%le, i! 1A Uaireco!trolle :K o the cobalt su%%l" a! "et %olitical u!rest i! Uaire resultei! a isru%tio! to global su%%l" that became >!ow! as the “Cobalt Crisis&(!other co!tributor to su%%l" ris> or REEs is the act that they areominedJ indi'idual REEs are not mined separately( REEs are %oundtogether in geologial deposits" rendering mining o% indi'idualelements eonomially ineient( .he supply o% any indi'idual REEdepends on the geology o% the deposits" the osts o% the e/tration

tehnology employed" and the prie o% the bas!et o% rare earths ?RE@(Fi!all", REEs ha'e ome under global srutiny due to theen'ironmental and soial onditions under whih they are mined"%urther inreasing their supply ris! ( Slo!so et al( .hile the literatureco!tai!s a number o% reports that e'aluate di5erent aspets o% REa'ailability" Ra!ol%h E( irchai!, -h(0(, a! colleagues evaluate uture%ote!tial ema! sce!arios or REEs with a ocus o! the issue o comi!i!g(

he" a!al"Qe the su%%l" o la!tha!um, cerium, %raseo"mium, !eo"mium,samarium, euro%ium, gaoli!ium, terbium, "s%rosium a! "ttrium u!er


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various sce!arios, a! %ro6ecte the ema! or these 1) rare eartheleme!ts through 2)85( $! %articular, they estimated resourere7uirements %or eletri 'ehiles and windturbines ?re'olutionarydemand areas %or REEs@ rom %erorma!ce s%eci+catio!s a! vehicle salesor turbi!e e%lo"me!t %ro6ectio!s( @uture demand was estimated %or arange o% senarios inluding o!e evelo%e b" the $!ter!atio!al E!erg"

ge!c" ?$E@ with adoption o% eletri 'ehiles and wind turbines at arate onsistent with stabiliation o% C$ in the atmosphere at a le'elo% ;& ppm( $! o!e sce!ario, demand %or dysprosium and neodymiumould be higher than $"V&& and Q&& perent respeti'ely( .o meetthat need" prodution o% dysprosium would ha'e to grow eah yearat nearly twie the histori growth rate %or rare earth supplies( hea%%licatio!s that will be most !egativel" aLecte b" co!strai!ts i! theseREEs ?i(e(, i!crease costs@ will be those e%e!e!t u%o! high %erorma!cemag!ets( %%licatio!s such as %etroleum re+!i!g, which e%e! o! eleme!tswhose su%%l" is %ro6ecte to eHcee ema!, ma" be %ositivel" aLecte i%rimar" %roucers i!crease overall %rouctio! to meet the higher ema! ors%eci+c eleme!ts( $ a seco!ar" mar>et emerges to meet the higher ema!or s%eci+c eleme!ts ?i(e(, rec"cli!g o mag!ets, but !ot catal"sts@, the!,give! that the %ortolio o rec"cle REEs woul be sig!i+ca!tl" iLere!t romthe %ortolio o %rimar" su%%l", the overall su%%l" %ortolio o REEs coulcha!ge( ((($! the e!, pries are not the only %ores that will inuenethe REE mar!ets(


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ech!olog" News [see Figure $'5 $! 2))8, Chi!a %rouce o!l" 1 %erce!t othe worl4s solar %a!els but b" 2)) its share ha grow! to 8 %erce!t( $!2))8, 3(#( %rouctio! o solar %a!els accou!te or 1: %erce!t o the worltotal, but b" 2)) the 3(#( share ha alle! to 6ust : %erce!t( -rouctio! i!cou!tries other tha! Chi!a ell rom 5 %erce!t o the worl mar>et i! 2))8 to5 %erce!t i! 2))( .he boom in Chinas solar panel prodution hasdri'en down the pries o% similar ,(S( produts by around ;&perent, whih is goo or co!sumers i! the short*ru! but not good %or,(S( manu%aturing ?obs(9 #olar %a!el ma!uacturer #ol"!ra, $!c(, ori!sta!ce, es%ite more tha! 75)) millio! i! eeral gra!ts a! loa!guara!tees, eclare ba!>ru%tc" i! #e%tember 2)11, citi!g its i!abilit" tocom%ete with chea%er Chi!ese solar %a!els(A Curre!tl", as Figure $$ shows " anumber o% tehnologies depend on rare earths( For eHam%le,!eo"mium a! la!tha!um are esse!tial com%o!e!ts i! the !ewestge!eratio! o batteries use i! h"bri a! electric vehicles( hus, omesticma!uacture o these vehicles e%e!s o! Chi!a4s willi!g!ess to eH%ort rareearths( .i! %ower is also %romote as a wa" to ecrease merica! e!erg"e%e!e!ceP however, as with electric cars, the magnets in wind+poweredeletrial generators re7uire neodymium( e cobalt i! its lists o 1: eco!omicall" vital raw


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materials that are prone to supply disruption( he JRC stu" is %art o theCommissio!4s eHami!atio! o raw material !ees( Euro%e e%e!s o! im%ortsor !earl" all o its rare*earth metals( hough ma!" are i! abu!a!t su%%l" o!the %la!et, the metals are dispersed or diult to aess" and despitetheir importane to green energy" re7uire intensi'e mining andproessing( China ontrols more than 8&9 o% the mar!et ( $! Jul", the

.orl rae rga!isatio! calle o! Chi!a to ease its eH%ort restrictio!s o! 1Arare*earth metals im%orta!t to e!erg", tra!s%ort a! electro!icsma!uacturi!g( Shortages or limitations on supply would ha'e seriousimpat on many industries( But with solar and wind power e/petedto aount %or the biggest energy growth mar!ets over the !eHt 2)"ears, the impat on alternati'e energy ould be pro%ound( he JRCre%ort sa"s +ve metals * "s%rosium, !eo"mium, tellurium, gallium, a!i!ium * are at the highest ris! o% supply -bottlene!s: %rom highdemand" onentration o% supply and -high politial ris!s due to ane/treme onentration o% supply in China(& he stu" eHami!es 1: rare*earth metals( Solar energy tech!ologies, or eHam%le, will re7uire hal%the urrent world supply o% tellurium and $;9 o% the supply o%

indium, the re%ort sa"s( Euro%e4s wi! e!erg" tech!olog" will reuire about:K o the su%%l" o both !eo"mium a! "s%rosium( “.hile the %erce!tmight be small, it coul have a sig!i+ca!t eLect o! wi! tech!olog",& ;osstol Eurctiv( he co!cer!, he sai is that “8& perent o% the soure is inChina at the moment" and they themsel'es ha'e a rapidly growingdemand %or the same metals whilst they ha'e also limitedrestritions on e/port(&

)ndependently" REMs are !ey to solar de'elopment –Chinese monopoly !ills the industry and destroysinternational ooperation on solar

@inley" writer %or the Den'er =ost" 11 [Bruce, 1/19/11, 0e!ver -ost, “Chi!aWs co!trol o rare*earth metals %oses ris>to 3(#( solar uture,& htt%'//www(e!ver%ost(com/ci\1A1)1)ChinaLs tight ontrol o% rare metals may hurt de'eloping domestisolar industries " aording to a researh diretor at the NationalRenewable Energy 6ab( DFol>s are loo>i!g at, i% we donLt get it %romChina" how will we get it said Ryne Ra5aele" diretor o% the enter%or photo'oltais at NRE6" the ,(S( go'ernmentLs premier energy lab(DCa! it easil" be mi!eMD Sientists at NRE6, west o 0e!ver, use an arrayo% rare metals in their researh( .he Chinese go'ernmentLs reentmo'e to ut rare+metal e/ports by 4; perent and rapid growth o%solar+panel manu%aturing inside China also are hilling the limate

%or sienti0 ooperation( China produes ;; perent o% the worldLssolar panels(


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6in! – Fiel, three materialsscie!tists at the ;assachusetts $!stitute o ech!olog", as>e themselvesrece!tl"( heir a!swer, 6ust %ublishe i! E!viro!me!tal #cie!ce a!

ech!olog", is that i% wind turbines and eletri 'ehiles are going to%ul0l the role en'ironmental planners ha'e assigned them inreduing emissions o% arbon dio/ide" using urrent tehnologieswould re7uire an inrease in the supply o% neodymium anddysprosium o% more than Q&&9 and $"V&&9 respeti'ely uri!g the

!eHt 25 "ears( t the mome!t, the supply o% these metals is inreasingby V9 a year( o match the three researchersW pro?etions it wouldatually ha'e to inrease by 9 a year %or neodymium and 19 %ordysprosium( .hat will be hard" partiularly %or dysprosium($!creme!tal im%roveme!ts to motors a! ge!erators might be eH%ecte tobri!g ema! ow! a bit( But barri!g a brea>through i! mag!et tech!olog"?the iscover" o a room*tem%erature su%erco!uctor, or eHam%le@ the threeresearchersW +gures suggest that the worlWs geologists woul o well to startscouri!g the %la!et or rare*earth ores !ow( $ the" o !ot, the mood o% the


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Chinese go'ernment may be the least o% the headahes %aed bymagnet manu%aturers(


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$NC – .urns Case

.urns the ase + rare+earth supply bottlene!s pre'ent atransition and ollapse the eonomy

idal" writer %or the /e!viro!me!t/2)12/6a!/2A/rare*mi!erals*global*re!ewables*i!ustr"Shortages o% a hand%ul o% rare minerals ould slow the %uture growtho% the burgeoning renewable energy industries" and a5et ountriesLhanes o% limiting greenhouse gas emissions" busi!ess leaers weretol at the .orl Eco!omic Forum i! 0avos this wee>( =ast "ear, pries o%many sare minerals e/ploded" rising as muh as 1& times o'er$&1& le'els beore ro%%i!g bac>, sai -ricewaterhouseCoo%ers ?-wC@(.erbium" yttrium" dysprosium" europium and ne

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