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  • Special Guest Speaker Conrad Clifford Regional Vice President Asia Pacific IATA

  • Outlook for the Airline Industry –

    Growth or Gridlock in the Asia Pacific?

    CONRAD CLIFFORD

    Regional Vice President

    IATA Asia Pacific

  • Asia Pacific Airlines’ ROIC Lagging Europe and US

    Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

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    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    EB IT

    a dj

    us te

    d fo

    r op

    er at

    in g

    le as

    es a

    s %

    in

    ve st

    ed c

    ap ita

    l

    Return on invested capital

    Industry average

    North America

    Europe

    Asia Pacific

    Latin America Middle East

    Weighted Average Cost of Capital

  • Growth has Returned to Air Cargo

    -50%

    -40%

    -30%

    -20%

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    -30%

    -20%

    -10%

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    % year-on-year % year-on-year

    Growth in industry FTKs Global PMI new export orders component (adv. 2 months)

    Sources: IATA Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics, Markit

    Implied PMI series if the index remains flat at its

    February 2017 level over the coming months

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    2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

    Global O-D passenger journeys (billion)

    Constant policies scenario

    Reflation/open borders scenario

    Pick-up in Protectionism scenario

    Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016

    Long-term Expansion Even in Gloomy Macro Scenario

  • Security is the New Safety

    The Rising Tide of Protectionism

  • ASIA PACIFIC

    Potential Growth and the Rise of LCCs

  • 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

    US

    China

    UK

    Japan

    Spain

    Germany

    India

    Italy

    France

    Indonesia

    China

    US

    India

    UK

    Indonesia

    Japan

    Spain

    Germany

    Brazil

    Turkey

    Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016

    Significant Change in Top-10 Markets over Next 20 Years

  • Source: IATA Economics

    Change in LCC Penetration, 2005 - 2016

  • Airline Model Spectrum

    Low Cost Carriers Full Service Carriers

  • ASIA PACIFIC

    What’s Holding It Back?

  • INFRASTRUCTURE - a dire situation

    PEK Beijing Capital 567,759 1.9% 2019 83.7 2.2% FULL

    PVG Shanghai 371,190 2.6% 2021 47.2 5.1% 2018

    HKG Hong Kong 382,782 5.7% 2016 59.6 6.3% FULL

    BOM Mumbai 269,394 4.4% 2020 32.0 6.4% 2018

    DEL Delhi 309,074 1.3% 2022 36.7 7.3% 2021

    CGK Jakarta 398,985 4.9% 2021 60.1 4.1% FULL

    NRT Narita 223,377 6.1% 2029 35.3 7.5% 2022

    KUL Kuala Lumpur 326,678 15.3% 2023 47.5 19.1% 2022

    MNL Manila 271,508 -0.6% 2019 32.9 3.1% 2015

    SIN Singapore 346,796 6.0% 2018 53.7 5.0% 2018

    ICN Incheon 273,866 6.8% 2022 41.7 6.4% 2015

    BKK Bangkok 301,747 -4.8% 2023 51.4 -3.1% FULL

    DXB Dubai 369,953 7.5% 2019 66.4 15.2% 2016

    HAN Hanoi 89,835 6.6% NO DATA 12.8 13.1% FULL

    IATA

    Code Name

    RUNWAYS

    2013

    Growth

    Rate

    Capacity

    limit

    reached

    2013 Aircraft

    Movements

    2013

    Passengers

    in Millions

    2013

    Growth

    Rate

    TERMINAL

    Capacity

    limit

    reached

    Source: IATA/ACI

  • Source: Intervistas

    Infrastructure essential to

    unlocking the

    ‘Value of Aviation’

    within the period of 2014-2035

  • REGULATIONS

    ASEAN Single Aviation Market Visa Restrictions Aviation Security Fees and Charges

  • GROWTH OR GRIDLOCK?

  • THANK YOU