Secondary School Strategy Managers

East Riding of Yorkshire

GCSE 2007 Results

November 2007

Provisional Data

Objectives of this session

• To review KS4 results and the implications for action nationally, regionally and locally.

• To focus attention on securing good progress for all pupils.

• To outline the new PSA targets and explore implications for LAs and schools.

45.146.3

47.949.2 50.0

51.652.9 53.7

56.3

45.7

60.058.5

60.3

45.344.3

42.641.942.140.740.0

38.637.0

35.6

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% 1

5 ye

ar o

lds

ach

ievi

ng

5+

A*-

C

5+ A*-C 5+ A*-C incl Eng & Maths

2008 PSA target achieved one year early. Progress made on 5+ A*-C inc

E+M

Progress made on 5+A-C by gender in ER schools

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

% 15

year

old

s ac

hiev

ing

5+ A

*-C

Boys LA 5+A*-C Girls LA 5+A*-C

Progress made on 5+A-C inc EM in ER schools compared to National data set

Progress made on 5+ A*-C (+ inc E&M)

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

% 15

year

old

s ac

hiev

ing

5* A

-C

LA 5+ A*-C Nat 5+ A*-C LA 5+ A*-C inc EM Nat 5+ A*-C inc EM

Progress made on 5+A-C by gender in ER schools compared to National data set

Progress made on 5+ A*-C (+ inc E&M)

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

% 15

year

old

s ac

hiev

ing

5* A

-C

LA 5+ A*-C Nat 5+ A*-C LA 5+ A*-C inc EM Nat 5+ A*-C inc EM

40.5 41.342.8

44.0 44.846.4

47.9

51.453.8

55.850.051.5

53.454.6 55.4

57.058.2 58.8

61.463.5

48.8

65.0

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007prov

% 1

5 y

ea

r o

lds

ac

hie

vin

g 5

+ A

*-C

Boys Girls

9.5 10.210.6 10.6 10.6

10.6 10.3 10.010.0

9.79.2

Gender gap narrowed slightly since 2005,

but not significantly over time

32.233.4

35.036.3 36.7

38.3 38.040.2 41.0 41.2

39.240.7

42.543.8

44.846.0 45.9 46.8

48.649.8

38.7

50.3

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007prov

% 1

5 y

ea

r o

lds

ac

hie

vin

g 5

+ A

*-C

inc

lud

ing

E

ng

lish

an

d m

ath

s

Boys Girls

7.07.3

7.57.5 8.1

7.7 7.98.1

8.40

8.8 9.1

Signs of the gender gap widening for 5+ A*-C including English and maths

44.945.8 46.5

53.0

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

% p

up

ils

ach

ievi

ng

5+

A*-

C i

nc

E+

M

5+ A*-C inc E+M (end KS4)

Some improvement including English and maths, but new PSA target sets a

challenging trajectory

Reduction in schools below30% 5+ A*-C floor target

896

828

735

661619

499

410

343

230

13481

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007prov

2008

No

. of

Sc

ho

ols

Below 20% Below 25% Below 30%

2007<30% 81<25% 26<20% 8

We expect these numbers to fall further when schools have checked their data and revised figures are

published in the Achievement and Attainment Tables in January 2008

… and similarly when indicator includes English and

mathematics

16101507

13101241

11541089 1098

1052

924

789

670

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007prov

No

. o

f S

cho

ols

Below 15% Below 20% Below 25% Below 30%

2007<30% 670<25% 402<20% 187<15% 58

We expect numbers to fall further when schools have checked their data and revised figures are published in AAT in January 2008

In 1997 51% of schools had less than 30% achieving 5+ A*-C inc E+M. In 2007 this had fallen to 22% of schools

E R schools achieving below the 30% for 5+A*-C

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2004 2005 2006 2007

Num

ber of

Sch

ools

Below 70% Below 60% Below 50% Below 40% Below 30%

ER Schools including E &M

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2004 2005 2006 2007

Num

ber of

Sch

ools

Below 70% Below 60% Below 50% Below 40% Below 30%

71

.6%

61

.9%

56

.4%

49

.9%

46

.8%

44

.1%

46

.7%

72

.3%

63

.6%

58

.5%

52

.4%

49

.7%

45

.7%

49

.2%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

<=5% 5-9% 9-13% 13-21% 21-35% 35-50% 50%+

School FSM Band

Pro

p o

f P

up

ils A

ch

iev

ing

5+

A*-

C

2006 2007

Low deprivation High deprivation

Similar rate of increase across all levels of deprivation

Schools with more than 50% FSM have increased by 2.5 ppts compared to an increase of only 0.7 ppts in schools with less than 5% FSM, however schools with 35-50% FSM have only

increased by 1.6ppts

60

.1%

49

.4%

42

.4%

35

.0%

30

.4%

25

.3%

27

.6%

61

.4%

50

.8%

43

.9%

36

.6%

32

.0%

26

.8%

29

.0%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

<=5% 5-9% 9-13% 13-21% 21-35% 35-50% 50%+

School FSM Band

Pro

p o

f P

up

ils A

ch

iev

ing

5+

A*-

C in

c

E+

M

2006 2007

Low deprivation High deprivation

…. and similarly when English and mathematics are included

KS3 Secondary LA and school targets

For 2009, targets to be set at KS3:

Proportion of 14 yr olds reaching level 5+ in both English and maths*

Proportion of 14 yr olds reaching level 5+ in science*Proportion of 14 yr olds making 2 levels progress in

English* Proportion of 14 yr olds making 2 levels progress in maths*Attendance: to reduce persistent absence.

* For each of these targets LAs will be required to provide a breakdown by minority ethnic group. The groups have been revised to include Gypsy/Roma and Travellers of Irish Heritage.

KS4 Secondary LA and school targets

For 2009, targets to be set at KS4

Proportion of pupils achieving 5 A*- C grades or equiv incl GCSE English and maths*

Proportion of pupils making 2 levels progress in English* Proportion of pupils making 2 levels progress in maths*Children in care: to increase the proportion achieving 5 A*-

C grades at GCSE and equiv incl GCSE English and maths

Attendance: to reduce persistent absence

*For each of these targets LAs will be required to provide a breakdown by minority ethnic group. The groups have been revised to include Gypsy/Roma and Travellers of Irish Heritage.

KS3 to KS4 progress measures

KS3 NC level GCSE grade

8 A* (in maths)7 A (and A* in English)

6 B5 C4 D3 E2 F

Below level 2 G

2011 PSA targets

Key Stage

Target Type Subject 2007 results

2009mileston

e

2011 target

2007-2011 improveme

nt

KS3 Progress En 30% (06)

38% 46% +16ppts

KS3 Progress Ma 62% (06)

68% 74% +12ppts

KS3 Attainment En & Ma 67% 71% 74% +7ppts

GCSE Progress En 57% 65% 72% +15ppts

GCSE Progress Ma 29% 36% 42% +13ppts

GCSE Attainment 5+ A* -Cs inc En & Ma

46.5% 50% 53% +6.5ppts

Two levels progress

  2004 2005 2006 2007

KS2-3 English 27% 29% 30% n/a

KS2-3 Maths 55% 54% 62% n/a

KS3-4 English 52% 53% 56% 57%

KS3-4 Maths 27% 25% 27% 29%

National picture of progression by 2 levels from KS2 to KS3 for English and Maths

79

71

28

34

28

3230

80

52

33

41

65

81

62

W L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 Overall

KS2 prior attainment

% P

rog

res

sio

n 2

le

ve

ls

English Maths English 2009 milestone Mathematics 2009 milestone

National Picture of progression by 2 levels from KS3 to KS4 for English and Maths

3438

46

58

6770

0

58

30

24

1517

24

28

39

56

28

42

Below L2 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 Overall

KS3 prior attainment

% P

rog

res

sio

n 2

lev

els

English Maths English 2009 milestone Mathematics 2009 milestone

Discussion

1. What questions and issues does this KS4 data raise for you?for Current Y11 [mocks, coursework, intervention]other year groups [Y10, Y9, Y8, Y7]

2. What are the implications for schools’ target setting and intervention planning on the basis of this data?

ICT and science priorities

ICT - priorities

• use of performance data to review and shape improvement plans with a particular focus on conversion rates from KS3 to KS4 and residual performance

• collaborative improvement activity focused on improved planning and pedagogy

• attendance at the spring term SLDM to access SNS support and guidance, be briefed on the renewed framework, and benefit from local networking of effective approaches

Science quiz

• What do these terms mean? • SIIF • STEM • HSW • Triple science • Level 6+ entitlement

• What counts for reporting 2 GCSE sciences?

Science priorities

1. Supporting appropriate wave 1, 2 & 3 intervention through:

• use of data (including using RAISEonline and test analysis ) and AfL strategies to target underperforming groups throughout year 7 – 11;

• use of data to devise curriculum targets which are used in teaching;

• explicit teaching of scientific enquiry/How Science Works to improve progression between KS3 and 4.

2. Attendance at the spring term SLDM to access SNS support and guidance, be briefed on the renewed framework, and effective dissemination of key messages to science staff.

SIIF priorities

• For pilot LAs to increase level 6+ attainment and GCSE A*-B by trialling and evaluating materials in schools on: • improving teachers’ knowledge and use of

progression strategies through and between KS3 and KS4;

• improving teachers’ knowledge and use of effective interactive teaching including practical work.

• LAs contributing to collection of case studies of effective practice to support progression to post 16 sciences