SCB:Population projection for Sweden

The population forecast is produced yearly Every third year a thorough investigation of

assumptions is undertaken with alternatives.

Demographic reports

Calibration of assumptions for years in between. Main alternative.

Statistiska meddelanden

Forecast users

Public authorities (National insurance board, pension funds etc.

Federation of county councils, communes

Departement of finance

Researchers

Eurostat

The public

The official population projection for Sweden

Prediction of the population by sex, age, foreign born /Swedish born and calendar-year (up to 2050)

The projection model is deterministic the prediction creates expected values of the population

Annual projection according to the component method

Latest population by sex, age (1-year age-groups) and Sweden born/foreign born, (31/12), is base population

Newborn and immigrants each year are included

Deaths and emigrants are excluded

Recursive projection model

where number of males/females at the end of year t, born t-x

number of deaths for males/females during year t, born t-x

number of immigrants and emigrants (males/females) during year t, born t-x.

x = age

The first age group x=0 is separately calculated from the number of births during the projection year.

**** The model is made in Excel with Visual basic for applications.

t

x

t

x

t

x

t

x

t

x UIDPP +=

1

11x

=txP

=txD

=txt

x UI ,

Population changes calculated by rates each year

Mortality risks by age and sex (net prob.)

Emigration risks by age, sex and Swedish/ foreign born (crude prob.)

Immigration (exogenous) distributed by age, sex and Swedish/ foreign born

Fertility rates by age

Brief description of assumptions in latest forecast 2004-2050

AssumptionsTFR Life expectancy Netmigration

Males Females2003 1,71 77,91 82,43 28772

2010 1,86 79,2 83,18 283002020 1,85 80,76 84,22 252002030 1,85 81,94 85,02 245002040 1,85 82,91 85,69 237002050 1,85 83,6 86,18 23300

Number of persons in thousands

Year Women Men Total

0-19 20-64 65+ 0-19 20-64 65+

2003 1 047 2 602 880 1 105 2 680 662 8 976

2005 1 055 2 626 884 1 112 2 702 676 9 056

2010 1 043 2 670 950 1 099 2 737 770 9 267

2020 1 088 2 693 1 096 1 146 2 751 946 9 720

2030 1 139 2 720 1 213 1 200 2 765 1 067 10 104

2040 1 144 2 764 1 288 1 205 2 808 1 143 10 352

2050 1 174 2 861 1 294 1 237 2 911 1 153 10 630

Children 10-12 years, 13-15 and 16-18

0

200

400

600

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Number in 1000s

10-12 years

Forecast 2003-2050

13-15 years

16-18 years

Number of persons aged 20-64. Millions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

20-64

20-64 forecast

Number of persons aged 65 or older

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

65+

65-79

80+ years

Number in 1000s

Forecast 2003-2050

Projection methods for components

***FertilityShort term ARIMA Period-cohort modelLongterm Cohort trend model

***MigrationShort term Trendanalysis for groups of migrantsLongterm Long term net-migration analysis

***MortalityShort term Lee-CarterLongterm Lee-Carter based on causes of death

Cohort fertility 1870-1960

0

1

2

3

4

5

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950

Number of children per woman/man

Cohort

Women

Men

Period fertility and forecast

0

1

2

3

4

5

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Number of children per women/man

Year

Women

Men Forecast

Migration 1950-2003 and forecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Immigration

Emigration

ImmigrationAssumptions

EmigrationAssumptions

Risks of death males (per mill.)

1 0

1 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 5 0

D d a p e r m iljo nL o g a r it m is k s k a la ld e r

r

9 0

8 0

1 0 0

7 0

6 0

5 0

1 0

3 0

4 0

2 0

M n

Risks of death females per mill.

1 0

1 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 5 0

D d a p e r m iljo nL o g a r itm is k s k a la ld e r

r

9 0

8 0

1 0 0

7 0

6 0

5 0

1 0

3 0

4 0

2 0

K v in n o r

Lee-Carter model for trend

txtxxtx kbam ,, )ln( ++= ,

xa = age-specific average mortality tk = trend factor in mortality xb = age-specific weight of trend

tx , = random term

Remaining life expectancy in years for a person aged 65 (1900-2050)

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1900 1950 2000 2050

Men

Women

forecast M

forecast W

Observed and projected changes 2003

Observed Forecast DifferenceBirths 99157 98200 957Net-migration 28772 29600 -828Deaths 92961 93600 -639

Total change 34968 34200 768

Deaths by age 2003. Women

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 20 40 60 80 100

observedforecast

umber

Deaths by age 2003. Men

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 20 40 60 80 100

Number