Local Population Projection in Practice - David Cullum
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Transcript of Local Population Projection in Practice - David Cullum
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Local Population Projection in practice
David CULLUMDeputy Manager
Research TeamNovember 2009
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•Why did we do our own local projection?•How did we do it?•What did our local projection tell us?•What are we doing with our local projection?
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Why did we do our own local projection?
ONS a top-down ‘disaggregation’ of national projections
ONS based on past 5 years trend – which were anomalous for Gloucestershire
Significant differential between ONS MYE and our own local estimates
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Why did we do our own local projection?
ONS based on past 5 years trend – which were anomalous for Gloucestershire
•Historically high levels of housebuilding•Significant influx of A8 migrant workers•Also, 5-year ‘trend-based’ projections are ‘policy-blind’
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Why did we do our own local projection?Significant differential between ONS MYE and our own local estimates
•ONS say 582,600 for mid 2007•We reckon 594,700•Based on GP registrations/electoral registers
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How did we do it?We used POPGROUP© with
•Local population base•Local fertility rates•Local mortality rates•Local migration estimates•Residential development plans (RSS)
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How did we do it?Local population base•12,000 higher than ONS MYE at mid 2007
-500
0
500
1,000
More in GCC
More in ONS
Very young Very old
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How did we do it?Local fertility & mortality rates
•Locally observed fertility and mortality rates•Provided by Glo’shire NHS•Future vital trends modelled using GAD estimated rates
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How did we do it?Local migration estimates
Used ONS District inflow/outflow data to derive rates for internal (within UK) migration
International Migration based on:•NINO•Migrant Worker study for length of stay•High levels of A8 in-migration in short term, ‘decaying’ to EU norm for Glo’shire after 10 years
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How did we do it?Residential development plans (RSS)
•Draft Regional Spatial Strategy housing targets for Districts•51,000 houses in County 2008-2026•Annual targets for each district input into projection model•Significant policy influence
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What did our local projection tell us?
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
680,000
2007 2012 2017 2022
Local Projection
ONS projection
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What did our local projection tell us?
Local growth rate 8.8%ONS rate 13.7%
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What did our local projection tell us?
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85plus
our projection
ONS 2006 based
Projected population 2026
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What did our local projection tell us?
ONS projecting a more elderly population
More people of parenting age in our local projection
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What did our local projection tell us?
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85plus
our projection
ONS 2006 based
Projected population 2026
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What are we doing with our local projection?
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What are we doing with our local projection?
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What are we doing with our local projection?
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2007 2012 2017 2022
2007=100
Young Offender projections 2007 to 2026
CheltenhamCotswoldForest of DeanGloucesterStroudTewkesbury