ACT Population Projection: 2007 to 2052
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ACT POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2007 TO 2056
Transcript of ACT Population Projection: 2007 to 2052
a c t p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s
2 0 0 7 t o 2 0 5 6
ii
ISBN-13: 978-0-642-60497-2ISBN-10: 0-642-60497-5
© Australian Capital Territory, Canberra May 2009This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission from the Territory Records Office, Community and Infrastructure Services, Territory and Municipal Services, ACT Government.GPO Box 158, Canberra City ACT 2601.Produced by Publishing Services for the Chief Minister’s Department.
Enquiries about this publication should be directed to:Chief Minister’s Department GPO Box 158Canberra City ACT 2601
Publication No 09/0351http://www.act.gov.auTelephone: Canberra Connect 132 281
Printed on recycled paper
ContentsList of Tables iv
List of Figures v
Chief Minister’s Foreword 1
Executive Summary 3 1.1 Summary of this Report 4
2 Introduction 5 2.1 Content of this Report 6 2.2 Future Releases of ACT Population Projections 6
3 Limitations of Population Projections 7 3.1 Limitations of Projections 8 3.2 Rounding 8 3.3 Years 8 3.4 Projection Variants 8 3.5 Disclaimer 8
4 Population Projections 9 4.1 Key Results 10 4.2 Projection Assumptions 10 4.3 Total Population Change 11 4.4 Demographic Components of Population Change 12 4.5 Age Structure Change 13
5 Projection Methodology 17
6 Preliminary Assumptions 19 6.1 Initial Population Assumptions 20 6.2 Preliminary Fertility Assumptions 20 6.3 Preliminary Mortality Assumptions 21 6.4 Preliminary Migration Assumptions 23
7 Additional Information 25 7.1 Historical Population Planning 26 7.2 Previous Population Projection Releases 26
8 Contact Officer 29
9 Appendix 31
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ContentsList of Tables iv
List of Figures v
Chief Minister’s Forward 11
1 Executive Summary 3 1.1 Summary of this Report 4
2 Introduction 5 2.1 Content of this Report 6 2.2 Future Releases of ACT Population Projections 6
3 Limitations of Population Projections 7 3.1 Limitations of Projections 8 3.2 Rounding 8 3.3 Years 8 3.4 Projection Variants 8 3.5 Disclaimer 8
4 Population Projections 9 4.1 Key Results 10 4.2 Projection Assumptions 10 4.3 Total Population Change 11 4.4 Demographic Components of Population Change 12 4.5 Age Structure Change 13
5 Projection Methodology 17
6 Preliminary Assumptions 19 6.1 Initial Population Assumptions 20 6.2 Preliminary Fertility Assumptions 20 6.3 Preliminary Mortality Assumptions 21 6.4 Preliminary Migration Assumptions 23
7 Additional Information 25 7.1 Historical Population Planning 26 7.2 Previous Population Projection Releases 26
8 Contact Officer 29
9 Appendix 31
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iviv
List of TablesTable 4.1 Summary of Key Population Projection Assumptions for the ACT 10
Table 4.2 Significant ACT Population Milestones 11
Table 7.1 Comparison between Previous Releases Estimated ACT Population Projection 27
Table 7.2 Comparison between Previous Releases ACT Population Projection Assumptions 28
Table 9.1 Population Projections for the ACT, 2007-2056: Summary Statistics 32
Table 9.2 Population Projections for the ACT, 2007-2056: Age by Sex (Male) 34
Table 9.3 Population Projections for the ACT, 2007-2056: Age by Sex (Female) 36
List of FiguresFigure 4.1 Historical and Projected Population of the ACT, 1971-2056 11
Figure 4.2 Components of Growth for the Projected Population of the ACT, 2008-2056 12
Figure 4.3 Age Structure the Projected Population of the ACT, 2007-2056 13
Figure 4.4 Percentage Increase in the Projected Population of the ACT by Age, 2007-2056 14
Figure 4.5 Age Structure of the ACT Population by Age, as a Percentage of the
Total ACT Population, 2007-2056 15
Figure 4.6 Projected Population of the ACT by Key Age Group, 2007-2056 16
Figure 6.1 Total Fertility Rates for the ACT, 1994-2006 21
Figure 6.2 Projected ACT Life Expectancy at Birth, 2007 - 2056 22
Figure 6.3 Annual Total Net Migration (Interstate plus Overseas), 1982-2006 23
Figure 6.4 Annual Net Interstate Migration and Net Overseas Migration, 1982-2006 24
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The ACT Government is committed to high quality planning and policy development, and accurate population projections are fundamental to the process.
ACT Population Projections: 2007 to 2056, presents the ACT Government’s official 50 year ACT population projections, by age and by sex.
It is projected that the Territory’s population will reach 350,000 persons by 2010; 400,000 persons by 2022; and 500,000 persons by 2050.
The ACT is expected to experience significant population ageing; with those aged 85 years and over to increase by 509 per cent, reaching 22,500 in 2056. This ageing is typical of projections elsewhere in Australia and throughout the western world.
While the projections in ACT Population Projections: 2007 to 2056 do not represent “targets”, they do provide a basis for assessing future residential and commercial land release requirements, and they help the Government plan for housing, schools, public utilities, health centres, aged care facilities and playgrounds.
These official population projections will be updated regularly to reflect changing demographic trends, ensuring that the Territory’s capacity for high quality planning is maintained.
The ACT Government is currently pursuing a number of additional demographic studies, which will build on the projections in this document. This work will allow for the development of localised and reliable ACT suburb projections; analysis of the economic and fiscal implications of an ageing population; and consideration of the impacts of regional ageing and population growth on the cost of ACT service delivery.
I commend ACT Population Projections: 2007 to 2056 to the people of the ACT.
Jon Stanhope MLAACT Chief Minister
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1.1 Summary of this ReportThis report presents the 2009 release of official ACT Government age by sex population projections for the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) for the period 2007 – 2056 (the Projections).
These Projections take into account preliminary 30 June 2007 Estimated Resident Population as released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)1, and the most recent assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. The projections supersede the previous ACT Demographics 2003 release, Australian Capital Territory Population Projections 2003-2032 and Beyond.
The population of the ACT is projected to increase to 520,800 persons by 2056. Approximately three-quarters of this growth is anticipated to be driven by natural increase (births minus deaths), with the remainder to be driven by net migration.
The ACT’s population growth is expected to vary by age group. Between 2007 and 2056: the number of ACT children, being persons aged 14 years of age and under, is projected to increase by •approximately 43 per cent;the younger working age population of persons aged 18 to 34 years is projected to increase by approximately •33 per cent;the working age population aged 35 to 64 years is projected to increase by approximately 43 per cent; and•the population of persons aged 65 years and over is projected to increase by 214 per cent. As such, the •proportion of the ACT population aged 65 years and over is expected to rise from approximately 10 per cent in 2007 to 20 per cent in 2056. This “population ageing” is typical of projections elsewhere in Australia, as well as throughout the western world.
The Territory’s population is projected to reach 400,000 persons by 30 June 2022 and 500,000 persons by 30 June 2050.
It is important to recognise that these Projections reflect the outcomes of certain assumptions about the future of fertility, mortality and migration – assumptions which may not eventuate. These Projections do not represent population targets, nor do they represent ACT Government policy positions – they are policy neutral. As such, the Projections should not be interpreted as fixed, precise predictions of the demographic future, but rather an indication of potential population change and its subsequent possible implications for the Territory.
1 Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, (2 December 2008).
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5
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2.1 Content of this ReportThis report presents the ACT Government’s population projections for the period 2007-2056 for the ACT. They have been prepared by the ACT Government Demographer within the ACT Chief Minister’s Department.
These Projections take into account preliminary 30 June 2007 Estimated Resident Population as released by the ABS2, and the most recent assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. The projections supersede the previous ACT Demographics 2003 release, Australian Capital Territory Population Projections 2003-2032 and Beyond.
Section 3 of this document outlines key limitations in the application of population projections and identifies wording conventions used in this report.
Section 4 of this document presents population projections for the ACT. Projections are available as at 30 June for each year of the 2007-2056 projection period.
Section 5 of this document discusses the projection methodology employed in this report.
Section 6 of this document identifies the initial “jump-off” population, as determined by the ABS, and preliminary assumptions regarding the future of fertility, mortality and migration for the ACT.
Section 7 of this document presents an examination of how the population projections contained within this document compare to those published in the previous (2003) release, Australian Capital Territory Population Projections 2003-2032 and Beyond, and the 2008 ABS B-series release3.
2.2 Future Releases of ACT Population ProjectionsIt is anticipated that subsequent releases of ACT Population Projections, as well as ACT Suburb-level Population Projections, will be published biennially.
2 Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, (2 December 2008).3 Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3222.0 Population Projections Australia, 2006-2101 (4 September 2008)
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3.1 Limitations of ProjectionsThese Population Projections are not intended to present predictions of the demographic future to any degree of reliability or precesion. Instead, the population projections contained in this report are the projected populations resulting from certain assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
Future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration are influenced by a variety of social, economic and political factors. Due to the difficulty in predicting such fluctuations, assumptions based on long-run average fertility, mortality and migration trends (in the form of straight lines or smooth curves) have been employed in these projections. It is anticipated that actual trends in fertility, mortality and migration will fluctuate on either side of the smooth path of the long-run assumptions.
It should be emphasised that these population projections do not represent ACT Government population targets. These projections have been developed on a policy-neutral basis.
Consequently, the ACT population projections contained in this document should not be interpreted as fixed, precise predictions of the demographic future, but instead provide an indication of population change and its subsequent possible implications for the Territory.
3.2 RoundingPopulation figures in this report are rounded to the nearest hundred. Percentages in this report are rounded to the nearest whole number.
3.3 YearsThroughout this report, the phrase “The population in 200x” (or similar) refers to the ACT’s projected population as at 30 June 200x.
3.4 Projection VariantsAlternative projection variants have not been published in this report. Persons requiring population projections based on alternate projection assumption should approach the Contact Officer identified in Section 8 of this document.
3.5 DisclaimerThis publication has been prepared by officers of the Chief Minister’s Department, ACT Government. It is believed that the information is correct and reliable, but neither the authors nor the Department give warranty in relation hereto and no liability is accepted by the authors or the Department, or any other person who assisted in the preparation of the publication, for errors and omissions, loss or damage suffered as a result of any person acting in reliance thereon.
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4.1 Key ResultsThe Estimated Resident Population of the ACT was 339,761 persons at 30 June 20074. The ACT population is projected to reach 520,800 persons by 2056. This population growth represents an increase of approximately 53 per cent over the projection period.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) is expected to attribute approximately 73 per cent of this growth while migration accounts for the remaining 27 per cent.
The ACT’s population is expected to continue to age, with the percentage of the ACT’s population aged 65 years and over projected to rise from approximately 10 per cent in 2007 to 20 percent in 2056.
4.2 Projection AssumptionsTable 4.1 below outlines key assumptions employed in these ACT population projections. Further discussion of these assumptions is at Section 6 of this document.
Table 4.1 Summary of Key Population Projection Assumptions for the ACT
Key Variable Assumption
Total Fertility Rate* 1.75 births per woman
Life Expectancy at Birth** Males 80 years in 2006-07, rising to 86 years by 2055-2056
Females 84 years in 2006-07, rising to 88 years by 2055-2056
Net Migration*** Interstate 0 persons per annum
Overseas 1,000 persons per annum
SOURCE: ACT Chief Minister’s Department
* The specified Total Fertility Rate, being 1.75 births per woman, is presumed to be attained in 2021 after linear interpolation from a base-year (2006-07) level of 1.63 births per woman.
** The specified Life Expectancy at Birth assumes improvements in life expectancy will slow after 2011.
*** The specified Net Interstate Migration rate, being 0 persons per annum, is presumed to be attained in 2010 after linear interpolation from base-year levels. The specified Net Overseas Migration rate, being 1,000 persons per annum, is presumed to be attained in 2011 after linear interpolation from base-year levels.
4 As outlined in the Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, (2 December 2008).
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4.3 Total Population ChangeThe population of the ACT is projected to increase by approximately 181,000 persons to 520,800 persons during the period 2007-2056.
Significant population milestones are identified in Table 4.2 below.
Table 4.2 Significant ACT Population Milestones
Milestone – Projected Number of Persons Estimated Year Milestone is to be Attained
350,000 2010
400,000 2022
500,000 2050
SOURCE: ACT Chief Minister’s Department
Tables of the projected ACT population over the period 2007-2056, by five (5) year age cohorts, and by sex, are at Section 9 of this document.
The ACT’s annual population growth is projected to vary between approximately 3,200 persons per annum and 4,200 persons per annum. This translates to an ACT population growth rate which peaks at just over 1.2 per cent in 2009-10 and then gradually falls to reach 0.6 per cent by 2055-56.
Figure 4.1 below illustrates the projected ACT population growth over the period 2007-2056.
Figure 4.1 Historical and Projected Population of the ACT, 1971-2056
SOURCE: Historical data – Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3201.0, Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories, Estimated Resident Population by Single Year of Age, Australian Capital Territory (12 December 2008);
Projections – ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department.
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0
19711976
19811986
19911996
20012006
20112016
20212026
20312036
20412046
20512056
Year
Historical and Projected ACT Population (1971-2056)
ProjectedHistorical
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4.4 Demographic Components of Population ChangeOver the projection period, natural increase (births minus deaths) is anticipated to contribute to approximately 73 per cent of the ACT’s population growth, with net migration (overseas and interstate migration) to contribute the remaining 27 per cent.
Figure 4.2 below illustrates the components of the ACT’s projected population growth (natural increase and net migration) over the period 2007-2056.
Figure 4.2 Components of Growth for the Projected Population of the ACT, 2008-2056
SOURCE: ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department.
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
# of
Per
sons
Per
Ann
um
20082012
20162020
20242028
20322036
20402044
20562052
2048
Year
Components of ACT Population Growth
Natural IncreaseNet Overseas Migration
Net Interstate Migration
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4.5 Age Structure ChangePopulation growth is projected for all ACT age groups over the projection period. The most notable increase in population numbers is anticipated to occur for persons between approximately 60-85 years of age. This population ageing is primarily the result of larger baby boom cohorts (those born between 1946-1965) gradually shifting into these older age groups, compounded by falling mortality rates.
Figure 4.3 below illustrates the projected age structure of the ACT population in the years 2007 and 2056.
Figure 4.3 Age Structure the Projected Population of the ACT, 2007-2056
SOURCE: ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department
2056
2007
ACT Population Age Structure
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
# of Males # of Females
Age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100+
14
ACT population growth will vary by age group. Figure 4.4 below illustrates the anticipated projected growth in the ACT’s population by age represented by the percentage increase in the project population of each age group over the period 2007-2056. Figure 4.4 clearly demonstrates the extent of population ageing which can be expected over the coming decades.
Figure 4.4 Percentage Increase in the Projected Population of the ACT by Age, 2007-2056
SOURCE: ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department
Between 2007-2056, the number of ACT children, being persons aged 14 years of age and under, is projected to increase by approximately 42 per cent. The younger working age population of persons aged 18-34 years is projected to increase by approximately 33 per cent, while the older working age population, being persons aged 35-64 years, is projected to increase by approximately 43 per cent.
The population of persons aged 65-84 years is projected to increase by 170 per cent while 85 years and over is projected to increase by 509 per cent. As such, the percentage of the ACT population aged 65 years and over is expected to rise from approximately 10 per cent in 2007 to 20 per cent in 2056. This “population ageing” is typical of expectations in other jurisdictions in Australia, as well as throughout the western world.
Percentage Increase in the ACT Population by Age (2007-2056)
0 100 200 300
%
400 500 600
05
10152025303540455055606570758085
Age
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Figure 4.5 below illustrates this population ageing by showing each age cohort as a proportion to the total projected ACT population.
Figure 4.5 Age Structure of the ACT Population by Age, as a Percentage of the Total ACT Population, 2007-2056
SOURCE: ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department
Age Structure of the ACT Population, 2007-2056
Year
0-4 5-910-14
15-1920-24
25-2930-39
40-4435-39
45-4950-54
55-5960-64
65-6970-74
75-7980-84
85+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
% o
f AC
T Po
pula
tion
2007
2056
16
Figure 4.6 below illustrates the projected ACT population by key age groups, being:children (persons aged 14 years of age and under);•the working age population (persons aged 18-64 years); and•persons aged 65 years and over.•
Figure 4.6 Projected Population of the ACT by Key Age Group, 2007-2056
SOURCE: ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department
Figure 4.6 highlights some interesting points. Firstly, the 15-64 age cohort represents the largest portion of the ACT population throughout the projection period. Although the number of persons aged 65 years and over is smaller than the number of children in 2007, the situation is reversed in 2034, and the difference continues to grow to 2056.
ACT Population Projections by Key Age Groups
Year2007
20112015
20192023
20272031
20352039
20432047
20512055
# of
Per
sons
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0-1415-64
65+
17
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The projection methodology used to produce the ACT age by sex population projections presented in this report is based on an ABS cohort-component model.
The ABS define the cohort-component model used as follows:
“the cohort-component method, which begins with a base population for each sex by single year of age and advances it year by year by applying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. This procedure is repeated for each year in the projection period for Australia and each state and territory, as well as each capital city/balance of state in each state and territory. The resulting population projections for each year for the states and territories, by sex and single year of age, are adjusted to sum to the Australian results. Likewise, capital city/balance of state projections are adjusted to sum to their respective state/territory projections.”5
A population simulator produced by the ABS has been modified to reflect ACT specific assumptions, including the number of births based on ACT Health Total Fertility Rates, to interpolate the population projections. Preliminary assumptions are discussed in Section 6 of this document.
5 Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101
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6.1 Initial Population AssumptionsThe ACT population projections presented in this report are based on an initial (jump-off ) population estimate of 339,800 persons, whish is the preliminary 30 June 2007 Estimated Resident Population6, as supplied by the ABS7.
The preliminary 30 June 2007 Estimated Resident Population is derived from 2006 Census counts of usual residents adjusted for:
net under-enumeration (adding in people missed by the Census, and taking out any double counting);•residents temporarily overseas; and•population change, due to natural increase and net migration, which occurred over the period between •Census night (8 August 2006) and 30 June 2007.
6.2 Preliminary Fertility AssumptionsProjections of the future numbers of births require assumptions to be made about future fertility rates, as well as assumptions about the sex ratio at birth. Rather than projecting all age-specific fertility rates individually, fertility assumptions are formulated in terms of the Total Fertility Rate.
The Total Fertility Rate represents the average number of babies that a group of women would bear during their lifetimes (under a certain set of age-specific fertility rates, and provided they survive to the end of the reproductive years). The Total Fertility Rate is expressed as the average number of births per woman.
The sex ratio at birth is defined as the ratio of the number of male babies born to the number of female babies born.
6.2.1 Past Trends in ACT Fertility RatesFigure 6.1, overleaf, shows a consistent average level of fertility in the ACT throughout the 1990’s, with mild growth in fertility trends over recent years.
6 As defined in the Census Dictionary 2006 (Catalogue no. 2901.0. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, Page 185), the Estimated Resident Population (ERP) is the official measure of the Australian population, and is based on the concept of usual residence. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality or citizenship, who usually live in Australia, with the exception of foreign diplomatic personnel and their families. The ERP includes usual residents who are overseas for less than 12 months and excludes overseas visitors who are in Australia for less than 12 months.7 As outlined in the Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, (2 December 2008).
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Figure 6.1 Total Fertility Rates for the ACT, 1994-2006
SOURCE: ACT Government, ACT Health, Maternal and Perinatal Data Collection, Confidentialised Unit Record File and Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue Number 3201.0, Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories, Estimated Resident Population by Single Year of Age, Australian Capital Territory (15 December 2008)
6.2.2 ACT Fertility Rate AssumptionsThe population projections presented in this report assume a short-term continuation of the increase in fertility experienced in the ACT over recent years. The projections then assume a gradual decrease8 in the long-run average Total Fertility Rate to 1.75 children per female (by 2021), with the Total Fertility Rate assumed to remain constant thereafter.
This assumed Total Fertility Rate is based on peri-natal and midwife data collected by ACT Health.
6.3 Preliminary Mortality AssumptionsProjections of the future number of deaths, by age and sex, require assumptions to be made about future age-sex-specific mortality rates. Unlike fertility and migration, mortality trends are much more stable over time. As such, mortality trends are highly amenable to mathematical extrapolation from historical data.
8 ACT Government policy initiatives, and recent public attention and discussion of the impacts of lower fertility, may have an effect in mitigating any future declines in fertility.
Total Fertility Rate ACT, 1994-2006
Year1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
e
Births per woman
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6.3.1 Past Trends in ACT Mortality RatesMortality rates in the ACT have been falling steadily for nearly all age groups, resulting in increasing life expectancy at birth for both males and females in the ACT.
6.3.2 ACT Mortality Rate AssumptionsThe population projections presented in this report assume a mortality rate consistent with that employed by the ABS for the ACT9. This ‘medium’ mortality rate considers that the rate of improvement in life expectancy will start to fall in 201110.
Life expectancy at birth for the ACT is higher than the average Australian life expectancy. This variance is most noticeable between the life expectancy at birth for males, and, as shown in Figure 6.2 below, is expected to continue into the future.
Figure 6.2 Projected ACT Life Expectancy at Birth, 2007 - 2056
SOURCE: ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department and Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3222.0 Population Projections Australia, 2006 to 2101 (4September 2008)
9 As employed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in its Catalogue Number 3222.0 Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 – Series B (4 September 2008).10 Work done by NSW suggests that the rate of increase in life expectancy is declining at a lesser rate than that which the ABS has relied upon for their Series B population projections, 3222.0-Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101. Few states are carrying the ‘high’ mortality rate which the ABS used in its Series A (high-range) population projections, suggesting that the rate at which life expectancy is improving will continue throughout the model. This would in turn suggest that no limit to the increase in life expectancy will be reached within the span of the projections.
Life Expectancy at Birth
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
Year
20072009
20112013
20152017
20192021
20232025
20272029
20312033
20352037
20392041
20432045
20472049
20512053
2055
Age
ACT Females
Aust. Females
ACT Males
Aust. Males
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6.4 Preliminary Migration AssumptionsMigration assumptions have been made for two types of migration:
overseas migration (people immigrating to Australia from overseas and people emigrating from Australia to •overseas); andinterstate migration (people moving usual residence between the ACT and another state or territory).•
6.4.1 Past trends in ACT Migration RatesHistorically, net ACT migration has proved to be extremely volatile. This is highlighted in Figure 6.3 below, which shows the total net migration for the ACT over the period 1982-2008.
Figure 6.3 Annual Total Net Migration (Interstate plus Overseas), 1982-2008
SOURCE: Calculated from Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, Table 2 Population Change, Components - States and Territories (2 December 2008)
Annual ACT Total Net Migration, 1982-2008
Year
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2004
2005
1994
1999
1995
1996
2000
1997 19
98
-3000
-2000
2000
3000
4000
-1000
1000
0
Num
ber o
f Per
sons
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Figure 6.4 below shows the net interstate and net overseas migration for the ACT over the period 1982-2008, and highlights the high level of volatility in the ACT’s net interstate migration.
Figure 6.4 Annual Net Interstate Migration and Net Overseas Migration, 1982-2008
SOURCE: Calculated from Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics Table 2 Population Change, Components - States and Territories (2December 2008)
6.4.2 ACT Migration Rate AssumptionsThe population projections presented in this report assume net interstate migration of 0 persons per annum, consistent with interstate migration rates employed by the ABS11. This is considered to be a reasonable assumption on the basis that the level of interstate migration is impossible to predict from year to year due to inherent volatility.
The population projections presented in this report assume net overseas migration of 1,000 persons, which is based on net international migration rates employed by the ABS12, adjusted to reflect recent developments in the identification of persons with diplomatic visas.
11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3222.0 Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 – Series B (4 September 2008).12 Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue Number 3222.0 Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 – Series B (4 September 2008).
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2004
2005
1994 19
991995
1996
200019
97
1998
Year
Net Overseas MigrationNet Interstate Migration
Annual ACT Net Interstate and Net Overseas Migration, 1982-2008
-3000
-2000
2000
3000
4000
-1000
1000
0
Num
ber o
f Per
sons
25
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7.1 Historical Population PlanningInitial plans for Canberra, as designed by Walter Burley Griffin in 1911, estimated a future resident population (for the area now considered the inner North and inner South of Canberra) of approximately 75,000 persons. This planning target did not have a target date or an assessment of how such a population would be achieved.
In 1965 the Future Canberra strategy was developed to accommodate Territory population growth to a population of 250,000 persons. The Future Canberra strategy was based on accommodating growth of the city by the development of new towns, each with a town centre. Again, this planning target did not have a target date or an assessment of how such a population would be achieved.
A review of the Future Canberra strategy, and relatively high levels of ACT population growth throughout the 1960’s, led to the development of the Y Plan. The Y plan provides a context to accommodate an ACT population of up to 1 million.
The Canberra Spatial Plan provides direction to the planning and development of the ACT over the next 30 years. The Canberra Spatial Plan does not propose ACT population targets, but does provide the framework to accommodate a range of population growth scenarios. The Canberra Spatial Plan caters for both moderate and high population projections of between 430,000 and 500,000 persons, by 2032 for, the Canberra-Queanbeyan area.
The Territory Plan, last updated 31 March 2008, continues to provide this direction to the planning and development of the ACT.
7.2 Previous Population Projection ReleasesACT Demographics 2003 ReleaseThe most recent official ACT Government population projections, Australian Capital Territory Population Projections 2003-2032 and Beyond (ACT population projections by age and sex), were produced by the Chief Minister’s Department (CMD) in June 2003.
These projections show similar fundamental population characteristics to both the ACT Demographics 2009 release and the ABS 2008 release, with an ageing population and slowing population growth.
However, as shown in Table 7.1 below, the ACT Demographics 2003 release projected a significantly lower ACT population to be achieved by 2050. The primary driver of this variance being a substantially lower assumed Total Fertility Rate as identified in Table 7.2 below.
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7.2.2 ABS 2008 ReleaseOn 4 September 2008, the ABS released its most recent ACT (age by sex) population projections for the period 30 June 2006 to 30 June 2056.
These projections show similar population projection results and population characteristics to the ACT Demographics projections as similar assumptions relating to natural increase and migration have been used. The primary driver of this variance being again being a lower assumed Total Fertility Rate as identified in Table 7.2.
7.2.3 Comparison between Previous Releases Table 7.1 below compares the estimated total populations from these ACT Population Projections (2007 to 2056), the Australian Capital Territory Population Projections 2003-2032 and Beyond, and the ABS Series B population projections, Catalogue Number 3222.0-Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101.
Table 7.1 Comparison between Previous Releases Estimated ACT Population Projection
Year Projected ACT Population ‘000
Difference Between Projected Populations ‘000
ACT Government Projections (Medium) 2009
ACT Government Projections (Medium) 2003
ABS Projections (Series B) 2008
Difference Between ACT Government 2009 and 2003 Projections
Difference Between ACT Government 2009 and ABS 2008 Projections
2010 352.1 344.5 352.0 7.6 0.1
2015 373.2 357.3 372.9 15.9 0.3
2020 394.3 368.6 393.2 25.7 1.1
2025 414.9 378.4 412.7 36.5 2.2
2030 434.3 386.5 431.0 47.8 3.3
2035 452.0 np 447.7 np 4.3
2040 468.5 np 463.0 np 5.5
2045 484.6 np 477.7 np 6.9
2050 501.0 398.0 492.1 103.0 8.9
2055 517.5 np 506.4 np 11.1
SOURCE: ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department, Australian Capital Territory Population Projections 2003-2032 and Beyond (2003), and Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3222.0-Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 (4 September 2008)
np – not published
28
Table 7.2 below compares the main assumptions used in the ACT Population Projections (2006-2056) to the assumptions used in Australian Capital Territory Population Projections 2003-2032 and Beyond, and the ABS’ Series B population projections, 3222.0-Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101.
Table 7.2 Comparison between Previous Releases ACT Population Projection Assumptions
ACT Government Projections (Medium) 2009
ACT Government Projections (Medium) 2003
ABS Projections (Series B) 2008
Total Fertility Rate 1.75 1.4 1.64
Life Expectancy at Birth Assumes improvements in life expectancy will slow after 2011
Assumes continued improvements in life expectancy
Assumes improvements in life expectancy will slow after 2011
Net Migration 1,000 persons per annum 500 persons per annum 1,080 persons per annum
SOURCE: ACT Government, Chief Minister’s Department, Australian Capital Territory Population Projections 2003-2032 and Beyond (2003), and Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue Number 3222.0-Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 (4 September 2008)
29
30
All queries in relation to the information contained within this document should be directed to the ACT Demographer, Ms Gemma Wood.
Mail Address: ACT Demographer Economic, Regional and Planning Policy Chief Minister’s Department GPO Box 158 Canberra ACT 2601 Location: Canberra Nara Centre Cnr Constitution Ave & London Circuit Canberra City ACT 2601 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.cmd.act.gov.au Telephone: 13 22 81 (AUS) / +61 13 22 81 (International) Fax: +61 2 6207 0025
31
32
Table 9.1 Population Projections for the ACT, 2007-2056: Summary Statistics
Year Projected ACT Population ‘000
Annual Population Increase ‘000
Annual Population Growth Rate
Median Age
2007 339.8 34.5
2008 343.8 4.0 1.2% 34.7
2009 347.9 4.0 1.2% 34.9
2010 352.1 4.2 1.2% 35.0
2011 356.3 4.2 1.2% 35.2
2012 360.5 4.2 1.2% 35.3
2013 364.7 4.2 1.2% 35.4
2014 368.9 4.2 1.2% 35.5
2015 373.2 4.2 1.1% 35.7
2016 377.4 4.2 1.1% 35.8
2017 381.6 4.2 1.1% 36.0
2018 385.9 4.2 1.1% 36.2
2019 390.1 4.2 1.1% 36.3
2020 394.3 4.2 1.1% 36.5
2021 398.5 4.2 1.1% 36.6
2022 402.7 4.2 1.0% 36.8
2023 406.8 4.1 1.0% 36.9
2024 410.9 4.1 1.0% 37.1
2025 414.9 4.0 1.0% 37.2
2026 418.9 4.0 1.0% 37.4
2027 422.9 3.9 0.9% 37.5
2028 426.8 3.9 0.9% 37.6
2029 430.6 3.8 0.9% 37.7
2030 434.3 3.7 0.9% 37.9
2031 438.0 3.7 0.8% 38.0
2032 441.6 3.6 0.8% 38.1
33
Year Projected ACT Population ‘000
Annual Population Increase ‘000
Annual Population Growth Rate
Median Age
2033 445.1 3.5 0.8% 38.2
2034 448.6 3.5 0.8% 38.3
2035 452.0 3.4 0.8% 38.3
2036 455.4 3.4 0.7% 38.4
2037 458.7 3.3 0.7% 38.4
2038 462.0 3.3 0.7% 38.5
2039 465.2 3.3 0.7% 38.5
2040 468.5 3.2 0.7% 38.5
2041 471.7 3.2 0.7% 38.5
2042 474.9 3.2 0.7% 38.6
2043 478.2 3.2 0.7% 38.6
2044 481.4 3.2 0.7% 38.6
2045 484.6 3.2 0.7% 38.6
2046 487.9 3.2 0.7% 38.6
2047 491.1 3.3 0.7% 38.6
2048 494.4 3.3 0.7% 38.6
2049 497.7 3.3 0.7% 38.6
2050 501.0 3.3 0.7% 38.7
2051 504.2 3.3 0.7% 38.7
2052 507.5 3.3 0.7% 38.7
2053 510.9 3.3 0.7% 38.7
2054 514.2 3.3 0.6% 38.8
2055 517.5 3.3 0.6% 38.8
2056 520.8 3.3 0.6% 38.8
34
Tabl
e 9.
2 Po
pula
tion
Proj
ectio
ns fo
r the
ACT
, 200
7-20
56: A
ge b
y Se
x (M
ale)
Year
Proj
ecte
d AC
T Po
pula
tion
(Mal
es) ‘0
00
Age
0-4
Age
5-9
Age
10-1
4Ag
e 15
-19
Age
20-2
4Ag
e 25
-29
Age
30-3
4Ag
e 35
-39
Age
40-4
4Ag
e 45
-49
Age
50-5
4Ag
e 55
-59
Age
60-6
4Ag
e 65
-69
Age
70-7
4Ag
e 75
-79
Age
80-8
4Ag
e 85
-89
Age
90-9
4Ag
e 95
-99
Age
100+
Tota
l M
ales
2007
11.0
10.3
10.9
12.6
15.5
14.2
13.0
13.1
12.1
12.0
10.9
10.0
7.7
5.2
3.7
2.9
2.0
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
168.
320
0811
.310
.310
.812
.515
.514
.713
.013
.212
.012
.210
.910
.18.
25.
43.
82.
92.
01.
00.
30.
10.
017
0.3
2009
11.5
10.4
10.7
12.6
15.4
15.0
13.1
13.3
12.1
12.3
11.0
10.1
8.6
5.7
4.0
3.0
2.1
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
172.
420
1011
.810
.510
.612
.615
.515
.313
.213
.312
.312
.311
.210
.09.
05.
94.
23.
12.
11.
20.
40.
10.
017
4.5
2011
11.9
10.8
10.6
12.4
15.6
15.5
13.6
13.1
12.7
12.2
11.4
10.0
9.2
6.4
4.3
3.1
2.2
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
176.
720
1212
.111
.110
.512
.315
.615
.713
.912
.913
.012
.111
.610
.19.
17.
04.
63.
22.
31.
30.
40.
10.
017
8.8
2013
12.2
11.3
10.5
12.2
15.6
15.7
14.3
12.9
13.2
12.1
11.8
10.0
9.1
7.4
4.8
3.4
2.3
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
180.
920
1412
.311
.610
.712
.115
.615
.714
.713
.013
.212
.111
.910
.19.
27.
85.
13.
62.
31.
40.
50.
10.
018
3.1
2015
12.4
11.8
10.7
12.0
15.6
15.9
15.0
13.1
13.2
12.3
11.9
10.3
9.1
8.1
5.3
3.7
2.4
1.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
185.
220
1612
.511
.911
.012
.015
.516
.015
.213
.413
.012
.711
.810
.59.
18.
35.
73.
92.
51.
50.
60.
10.
018
7.3
2017
12.6
12.1
11.2
11.9
15.4
16.1
15.3
13.7
12.8
13.0
11.7
10.7
9.2
8.2
6.2
4.1
2.6
1.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
189.
420
1812
.712
.211
.512
.015
.316
.215
.414
.212
.813
.211
.610
.99.
28.
36.
74.
32.
71.
60.
70.
20.
019
1.6
2019
12.8
12.3
11.7
12.1
15.2
16.3
15.5
14.5
12.9
13.2
11.7
11.0
9.3
8.4
7.0
4.5
2.9
1.6
0.7
0.2
0.0
193.
720
2012
.912
.411
.912
.115
.216
.315
.614
.813
.013
.211
.911
.09.
58.
37.
34.
83.
01.
70.
70.
20.
019
5.8
2021
13.0
12.5
12.0
12.3
15.2
16.2
15.8
15.0
13.3
13.0
12.2
10.9
9.6
8.3
7.5
5.1
3.1
1.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
197.
920
2213
.112
.612
.212
.615
.116
.115
.915
.213
.612
.812
.510
.89.
88.
47.
45.
63.
41.
80.
80.
20.
020
0.0
2023
13.2
12.7
12.3
12.8
15.1
16.0
16.0
15.2
14.0
12.8
12.7
10.8
10.0
8.4
7.5
6.0
3.5
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
202.
020
2413
.212
.812
.413
.115
.216
.016
.115
.314
.312
.812
.710
.810
.18.
57.
66.
33.
72.
00.
80.
20.
020
4.1
2025
13.3
12.9
12.5
13.3
15.3
15.9
16.1
15.4
14.6
12.9
12.7
11.0
10.1
8.7
7.6
6.6
3.9
2.1
0.9
0.2
0.1
206.
120
2613
.313
.012
.613
.515
.515
.916
.015
.614
.813
.212
.511
.310
.08.
87.
66.
84.
22.
20.
90.
30.
120
8.1
2027
13.4
13.1
12.8
13.6
15.7
15.8
15.9
15.7
15.0
13.5
12.4
11.6
9.9
9.0
7.7
6.7
4.6
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
210.
020
2813
.413
.212
.913
.716
.015
.815
.915
.815
.013
.912
.311
.79.
99.
27.
76.
85.
02.
51.
00.
30.
121
2.0
2029
13.4
13.2
13.0
13.9
16.2
15.9
15.8
15.9
15.1
14.3
12.4
11.8
9.9
9.2
7.8
6.9
5.2
2.6
1.0
0.3
0.1
213.
920
3013
.513
.313
.114
.016
.516
.015
.715
.915
.314
.612
.511
.710
.19.
37.
96.
95.
42.
81.
10.
30.
121
5.7
2031
13.5
13.3
13.2
14.1
16.6
16.1
15.7
15.9
15.4
14.8
12.7
11.6
10.4
9.2
8.1
6.9
5.6
3.0
1.2
0.3
0.1
217.
620
3213
.513
.413
.214
.216
.816
.315
.715
.815
.514
.913
.011
.410
.69.
18.
27.
05.
63.
31.
20.
30.
121
9.4
35
Year
Proj
ecte
d AC
T Po
pula
tion
(Mal
es) ‘0
00Ag
e 0-
4Ag
e 5-
9Ag
e 10
-14
Age
15-1
9Ag
e 20
-24
Age
25-2
9Ag
e 30
-34
Age
35-3
9Ag
e 40
-44
Age
45-4
9Ag
e 50
-54
Age
55-5
9Ag
e 60
-64
Age
65-6
9Ag
e 70
-74
Age
75-7
9Ag
e 80
-84
Age
85-8
9Ag
e 90
-94
Age
95-9
9Ag
e 10
0+To
tal
Mal
es20
3313
.513
.413
.314
.317
.016
.615
.715
.815
.715
.013
.411
.410
.79.
18.
47.
05.
63.
61.
30.
30.
122
1.1
2034
13.6
13.5
13.4
14.5
17.1
16.8
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.0
13.7
11.4
10.8
9.1
8.5
7.1
5.7
3.7
1.4
0.4
0.1
222.
920
3513
.613
.513
.414
.617
.217
.115
.815
.615
.715
.214
.011
.510
.89.
38.
57.
25.
73.
91.
50.
40.
122
4.6
2036
13.7
13.5
13.5
14.7
17.4
17.2
15.9
15.6
15.7
15.3
14.2
11.8
10.6
9.5
8.4
7.4
5.7
4.0
1.6
0.4
0.1
226.
320
3713
.713
.513
.514
.817
.517
.416
.115
.615
.615
.514
.312
.110
.59.
78.
37.
55.
84.
01.
80.
40.
122
8.0
2038
13.8
13.6
13.6
14.9
17.7
17.6
16.4
15.6
15.6
15.6
14.4
12.4
10.4
9.9
8.3
7.7
5.9
4.1
1.9
0.5
0.1
229.
720
3913
.913
.613
.614
.917
.817
.716
.615
.615
.515
.714
.512
.710
.59.
98.
37.
75.
94.
12.
00.
50.
123
1.4
2040
14.0
13.6
13.6
15.0
18.0
17.9
16.8
15.7
15.5
15.7
14.6
12.9
10.6
9.9
8.5
7.8
6.1
4.1
2.1
0.5
0.1
233.
020
4114
.113
.713
.715
.018
.118
.017
.015
.815
.515
.714
.813
.110
.89.
78.
77.
76.
24.
22.
20.
60.
123
4.7
2042
14.2
13.7
13.7
15.1
18.2
18.2
17.2
16.0
15.5
15.6
14.9
13.2
11.1
9.6
8.9
7.7
6.3
4.3
2.2
0.7
0.2
236.
420
4314
.313
.813
.715
.118
.318
.317
.316
.215
.415
.615
.013
.311
.49.
69.
07.
66.
54.
32.
20.
70.
223
8.0
2044
14.4
13.9
13.7
15.2
18.4
18.5
17.4
16.4
15.5
15.5
15.1
13.4
11.6
9.6
9.1
7.7
6.5
4.4
2.3
0.8
0.2
239.
720
4514
.614
.013
.815
.218
.518
.617
.616
.715
.515
.515
.113
.511
.99.
79.
17.
86.
64.
52.
30.
80.
224
1.4
2046
14.7
14.1
13.8
15.2
18.6
18.7
17.7
16.8
15.6
15.5
15.1
13.7
12.0
9.9
8.9
8.0
6.5
4.6
2.4
0.8
0.2
243.
120
4714
.814
.213
.915
.318
.618
.917
.917
.015
.815
.415
.113
.812
.210
.28.
88.
26.
54.
72.
40.
80.
224
4.7
2048
14.9
14.3
14.0
15.3
18.7
19.0
18.0
17.1
16.0
15.4
15.0
13.9
12.2
10.5
8.8
8.3
6.5
4.8
2.4
0.9
0.3
246.
420
4915
.114
.514
.115
.318
.719
.118
.217
.316
.315
.515
.014
.012
.310
.78.
88.
46.
54.
92.
50.
90.
324
8.2
2050
15.2
14.6
14.2
15.4
18.8
19.2
18.3
17.4
16.5
15.5
14.9
14.0
12.4
10.9
8.9
8.4
6.6
4.9
2.6
0.9
0.3
249.
920
5115
.314
.714
.315
.518
.819
.218
.417
.516
.615
.614
.914
.012
.611
.19.
18.
36.
94.
92.
70.
90.
325
1.6
2052
15.4
14.8
14.4
15.5
18.9
19.3
18.6
17.7
16.8
15.8
14.9
13.9
12.7
11.2
9.4
8.2
7.0
4.9
2.7
1.0
0.3
253.
320
5315
.514
.914
.515
.618
.919
.418
.717
.816
.916
.014
.913
.912
.811
.39.
68.
27.
14.
92.
81.
00.
325
5.0
2054
15.6
15.1
14.6
15.7
19.0
19.4
18.8
18.0
17.1
16.2
14.9
13.9
12.9
11.3
9.9
8.2
7.2
4.9
2.9
1.0
0.3
256.
720
5515
.715
.214
.715
.819
.019
.518
.918
.117
.216
.415
.013
.812
.911
.510
.18.
37.
25.
12.
91.
10.
425
8.5
2056
15.8
15.3
14.9
15.9
19.1
19.5
18.9
18.2
17.3
16.6
15.1
13.8
12.8
11.6
10.2
8.5
7.1
5.2
2.9
1.1
0.4
260.
2
36
Tabl
e 9.
3 Po
pula
tion
Proj
ectio
ns fo
r the
ACT
, 200
7-20
56: A
ge b
y Se
x (F
emal
e)
Year
Proj
ecte
d AC
T Po
pula
tion
(Fem
ales
) ‘000
Age
0-4
Age
5-9
Age
10-1
4Ag
e 15
-19
Age
20-2
4Ag
e 25
-29
Age
30-3
4Ag
e 35
-39
Age
40-4
4Ag
e 45
-49
Age
50-5
4Ag
e 55
-59
Age
60-6
4Ag
e 65
-69
Age
70-7
4Ag
e 75
-79
Age
80-8
4Ag
e 85
-89
Age
90-9
4Ag
e 95
-99
Age
100+
Tota
l Fe
mal
es20
0710
.510
.110
.512
.014
.514
.213
.013
.212
.412
.711
.710
.57.
95.
44.
23.
32.
91.
60.
60.
20.
017
1.5
2008
10.8
10.1
10.5
12.0
14.4
14.6
12.9
13.4
12.4
12.8
11.7
10.5
8.5
5.7
4.3
3.4
2.9
1.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
173.
520
0911
.010
.110
.511
.914
.414
.813
.013
.512
.412
.811
.910
.68.
96.
04.
53.
52.
91.
90.
70.
20.
017
5.5
2010
11.3
10.2
10.4
11.9
14.4
15.0
13.2
13.4
12.5
12.8
12.0
10.7
9.3
6.4
4.7
3.5
2.9
2.0
0.8
0.2
0.0
177.
520
1111
.410
.410
.411
.814
.415
.013
.613
.212
.812
.712
.110
.79.
76.
85.
03.
72.
92.
10.
80.
20.
017
9.6
2012
11.6
10.6
10.4
11.8
14.5
15.0
13.9
13.0
13.1
12.5
12.2
10.8
9.7
7.4
5.2
3.9
2.9
2.1
0.9
0.2
0.0
181.
720
1311
.710
.910
.311
.714
.614
.914
.312
.913
.412
.512
.310
.99.
88.
05.
44.
12.
92.
11.
00.
20.
018
3.8
2014
11.8
11.1
10.3
11.7
14.6
15.0
14.5
13.0
13.5
12.5
12.3
11.0
9.9
8.3
5.8
4.2
3.0
2.2
1.0
0.3
0.1
185.
920
1511
.911
.310
.411
.714
.615
.014
.713
.213
.412
.612
.311
.110
.08.
76.
14.
43.
12.
21.
10.
30.
118
8.0
2016
12.0
11.4
10.6
11.6
14.5
15.1
14.8
13.5
13.1
12.9
12.2
11.3
10.0
9.1
6.5
4.6
3.2
2.1
1.1
0.3
0.1
190.
120
1712
.111
.610
.811
.614
.415
.214
.813
.813
.013
.212
.011
.410
.19.
17.
14.
83.
42.
21.
20.
30.
119
2.2
2018
12.2
11.7
11.0
11.6
14.4
15.3
14.8
14.1
12.9
13.4
12.0
11.5
10.2
9.2
7.6
5.1
3.5
2.2
1.2
0.4
0.1
194.
320
1912
.211
.811
.311
.614
.415
.414
.914
.412
.913
.512
.011
.510
.39.
38.
05.
43.
72.
31.
20.
40.
119
6.4
2020
12.3
11.9
11.5
11.6
14.3
15.4
14.9
14.7
13.1
13.4
12.1
11.5
10.4
9.4
8.3
5.8
3.9
2.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
198.
520
2112
.412
.011
.611
.814
.315
.315
.014
.813
.413
.212
.411
.410
.69.
48.
76.
14.
12.
41.
20.
40.
120
0.6
2022
12.5
12.1
11.8
12.0
14.3
15.3
15.2
14.8
13.7
13.0
12.7
11.2
10.7
9.5
8.8
6.7
4.2
2.6
1.2
0.4
0.1
202.
720
2312
.612
.211
.912
.214
.315
.215
.314
.814
.012
.912
.911
.210
.79.
68.
87.
24.
52.
71.
20.
50.
120
4.8
2024
12.6
12.3
12.0
12.5
14.3
15.2
15.3
14.9
14.3
12.9
13.0
11.2
10.8
9.7
8.9
7.5
4.8
2.8
1.3
0.5
0.1
206.
820
2512
.712
.412
.112
.714
.315
.115
.414
.914
.513
.112
.911
.410
.89.
99.
07.
85.
02.
91.
30.
50.
120
8.9
2026
12.7
12.5
12.2
12.8
14.5
15.1
15.3
15.0
14.7
13.4
12.7
11.6
10.7
10.0
9.1
8.2
5.3
3.1
1.4
0.5
0.1
210.
920
2712
.812
.612
.313
.014
.615
.115
.315
.214
.713
.712
.511
.910
.610
.19.
28.
25.
93.
21.
50.
50.
121
2.9
2028
12.8
12.7
12.4
13.1
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.3
14.7
14.0
12.4
12.1
10.5
10.2
9.3
8.3
6.3
3.4
1.5
0.5
0.2
214.
820
2912
.812
.712
.513
.215
.215
.115
.215
.314
.814
.312
.412
.110
.510
.29.
48.
46.
63.
61.
60.
50.
221
6.7
2030
12.9
12.8
12.6
13.3
15.4
15.1
15.2
15.4
14.8
14.6
12.6
12.1
10.6
10.2
9.5
8.5
6.9
3.8
1.7
0.5
0.2
218.
620
3112
.912
.812
.713
.415
.615
.315
.115
.314
.914
.712
.911
.910
.910
.29.
78.
57.
24.
11.
80.
50.
222
0.4
2032
12.9
12.8
12.7
13.5
15.7
15.4
15.1
15.3
15.1
14.8
13.1
11.7
11.2
10.0
9.8
8.7
7.2
4.5
1.9
0.6
0.2
222.
2
37
Year
Proj
ecte
d AC
T Po
pula
tion
(Fem
ales
) ‘000
Age
0-4
Age
5-9
Age
10-1
4Ag
e 15
-19
Age
20-2
4Ag
e 25
-29
Age
30-3
4Ag
e 35
-39
Age
40-4
4Ag
e 45
-49
Age
50-5
4Ag
e 55
-59
Age
60-6
4Ag
e 65
-69
Age
70-7
4Ag
e 75
-79
Age
80-8
4Ag
e 85
-89
Age
90-9
4Ag
e 95
-99
Age
100+
Tota
l Fe
male
s20
3312
.912
.912
.813
.715
.915
.715
.115
.215
.214
.813
.511
.611
.310
.09.
98.
77.
34.
81.
90.
60.
222
4.020
3413
.012
.912
.913
.816
.015
.915
.115
.215
.214
.813
.711
.611
.410
.09.
98.
97.
45.
02.
10.
60.
222
5.720
3513
.012
.912
.913
.916
.116
.215
.115
.215
.314
.914
.011
.811
.310
.19.
99.
07.
55.
22.
20.
70.
222
7.420
3613
.013
.013
.014
.016
.316
.315
.315
.215
.215
.014
.112
.011
.110
.39.
99.
27.
55.
42.
30.
70.
222
9.0
2037
13.1
13.0
13.0
14.1
16.4
16.5
15.4
15.1
15.2
15.1
14.2
12.3
11.0
10.6
9.7
9.3
7.6
5.5
2.6
0.8
0.2
230.
720
3813
.213
.013
.114
.216
.516
.615
.715
.115
.115
.214
.212
.610
.910
.89.
79.
37.
75.
62.
80.
80.
223
2.3
2039
13.2
13.0
13.1
14.2
16.7
16.8
15.9
15.1
15.1
15.3
14.2
12.8
10.9
10.8
9.7
9.4
7.9
5.6
2.9
0.9
0.2
233.
920
4013
.313
.113
.114
.316
.816
.916
.115
.115
.115
.314
.313
.111
.010
.89.
89.
48.
05.
73.
00.
90.
323
5.5
2041
13.4
13.1
13.1
14.3
16.9
17.0
16.3
15.3
15.1
15.3
14.4
13.2
11.3
10.6
10.0
9.3
8.1
5.8
3.2
1.0
0.3
237.
020
4213
.513
.213
.214
.417
.017
.216
.415
.415
.115
.314
.513
.211
.510
.410
.39.
28.
25.
93.
21.
10.
323
8.6
2043
13.7
13.3
13.2
14.4
17.1
17.3
16.6
15.7
15.0
15.2
14.7
13.3
11.8
10.4
10.5
9.2
8.3
6.0
3.2
1.2
0.3
240.
120
4413
.813
.313
.214
.517
.217
.516
.715
.915
.015
.214
.713
.312
.010
.410
.59.
28.
46.
13.
31.
20.
324
1.7
2045
13.9
13.4
13.3
14.5
17.3
17.6
16.8
16.1
15.1
15.2
14.8
13.4
12.2
10.5
10.5
9.3
8.4
6.2
3.3
1.3
0.4
243.
320
4614
.013
.513
.314
.517
.317
.717
.016
.215
.215
.214
.713
.512
.410
.710
.39.
58.
36.
33.
41.
30.
424
4.8
2047
14.1
13.6
13.4
14.6
17.4
17.8
17.1
16.4
15.3
15.1
14.7
13.6
12.4
10.9
10.2
9.8
8.2
6.4
3.5
1.4
0.4
246.
420
4814
.313
.813
.414
.617
.418
.017
.216
.515
.615
.114
.613
.712
.511
.210
.19.
98.
26.
53.
51.
40.
524
7.9
2049
14.4
13.9
13.5
14.6
17.5
18.0
17.4
16.7
15.8
15.1
14.6
13.8
12.5
11.4
10.1
10.0
8.2
6.5
3.6
1.4
0.5
249.
520
5014
.514
.013
.614
.717
.518
.117
.516
.816
.015
.114
.613
.812
.611
.610
.210
.08.
36.
53.
71.
40.
525
1.1
2051
14.6
14.1
13.7
14.7
17.6
18.2
17.6
16.9
16.1
15.3
14.6
13.8
12.7
11.8
10.4
9.8
8.5
6.5
3.8
1.5
0.5
252.
720
5214
.714
.213
.814
.817
.618
.317
.717
.116
.315
.414
.613
.712
.811
.810
.69.
78.
86.
43.
81.
50.
625
4.3
2053
14.8
14.3
13.9
14.9
17.7
18.3
17.8
17.2
16.4
15.6
14.6
13.7
12.9
11.9
10.9
9.6
8.9
6.4
3.9
1.6
0.6
255.
820
5414
.914
.514
.115
.017
.718
.417
.917
.316
.515
.914
.613
.712
.911
.911
.19.
69.
06.
43.
91.
60.
625
7.4
2055
15.0
14.6
14.2
15.1
17.8
18.4
18.0
17.5
16.7
16.1
14.6
13.7
13.0
12.0
11.3
9.7
8.9
6.5
3.9
1.6
0.6
259.
020
5615
.014
.714
.315
.217
.818
.418
.117
.616
.816
.214
.713
.713
.012
.111
.59.
98.
86.
73.
91.
70.
626
0.7
