Romania_CountryReport

8/9/2019 Romania_CountryReport

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Initiative on “Capacity Development to support National Drought Management Policy”

(WMO, UNCCD, FAO and UNW-DPC)

Country Report

Drought conditions and management strategies in RomaniaE. Mateescu1, M. Smarandache2, N. Jeler 2, V. Apostol3,

1

National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Romaniaemail: [email protected]

2Ministry of Environment and Climate Change3Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

Background

The drought represents a state of a biologic system in which the water requirements/need is

below the optimal values, the supplying functions significantly vary, function of the growth and

development stage. This phenomenon can be considered as being strictly meteorological,

hydrological, agricultural, economic, etc., and the analytical methods used allows the assessment ofthe severity level, function of the characteristics of intensity, duration, frequency, time and space

extent, as well as the consequences upon the environment (Sandu et al, 2010).

In Romania, the drought affects 7.1 million ha, which represent 48% from the total

agricultural land (RNIS, 2010). The South, Southeast and East parts of our country are the the most

hit areas (<600 m3 water /hectare – extreme and severe pedological drought) during the extremely

droughty years average yields of various crops representing only 35-60 percent of the potential

yields. An analysis of the 1901 – 2010 interval focused on annual mean air temperatures recorded by

weather stations that possess observation data sequences covering more than 100 years has shown an

increase of 0.5oC in the annual mean temperature over 1988-2010 (10.2oC) as against the whole

analysis interval (9.7oC), which is lower than the global mean warming of 0.6oC. As regards the

decadal evolution of annual mean air temperature, it was higher by 0.4...0.6o

C over 2001-2010 thanin every decade from 1961 to 2010. Concerning precipitation, the 1900-2010 period highlighted a

general decreasing trend in the annual precipitation after the year 1961 and a parallel enhance of the

precipitation deficit, especially in the south, south-east and east of the country. Since 1901 until now,

Romania has seen in every decade one to four extremely droughty/rainy years, an increasing number

of droughts being more and more apparent especially after 1981 (table 1).

DECADE

XX-TH CENTURY

EXTREMELY DROUGHTY YEARS EXTREMELY RAINY YEARS

1901-1910 1907-1908 1910

1911-1920 1917-1918 1911, 1912, 1915, 1919

1921-1930 1923-1924, 1927-1928 19291931-1940 1934-1935 1937, 1939, 1940

1941-1950 1945-1946, 1947-1948, 1949-1950 1941, 1944, 1947

1951-1960 1952-1953 1954, 1955, 1957, 1960

1961-1970 1962-1963, 1964-1965 1969, 1970

1971-1980 1973-1974, 1975-1976 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976

1981-1990 1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1987-1988 1981, 1990

1991-2000 1992-1993, 1997-1998, 1999-2000 1991, 1997

XXI-ST CENTURY

2001-2010 2000-2001, 2001-2002, 2002-2003, 2006-2007, 2008-2009 2005, 2006, 2010

2011-2020 2011-2012

Table 1. Droughty/rainy years in Romania, 1901-2010

mailto:[email protected]






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Significant rainfall deficits were recorded in 1907-1908, 1923-1924, 1927-1928, 1934-1935,

1945-1946, 1947-1948, 1949-1950, 1952-1953, 1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1992-1993, 1999-2000 and,

more recently, in 2000-2001, 2001-2002, 2002-2003, 2006-2007 and 2011-2012.

A total of eight droughty months were recorded during the agricultural year 2011-2012,

November 2011 being the droughtiest month in the last 52 years in Romania, with a monthly mean

of only 1.2 mm as against the multi-annual mean of 43.9 mm. July 2012 is the second, in top 5

droughtiest months over 1961-2012, with a monthly mean of 40.5 mm as compared with a normalvalue of 78.2 mm. July 2012 was also the warmest month in the last 52 years in Romania, the

monthly mean temperature being 23.7C as against the multi-annual mean of 19.2C – a positive

deviation of 4.5C.

Drought monitoring and early warning systems

The Romanian Government is assisted in taking decisions on drought, land degradation and

desertification issues by the interdisciplinary National Committee to Combat Drought, Land

Degradation and Desertification, which is a consultative body. This Committee is coordinated by

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. The National Meteorological Administration

(NMA) is one of the three institutions that collaborate with the Technical Secretariat of the NationalCommittee to Combat Drought.

National Meteorological Administration is the national authority in the meteorological field

in Romania, with a continuous service since 1884 and operates under the authority of the Ministry of

Environment and Climate Change (MECC). The NMA is responsible for carrying out the weather

forecasts and warnings as well as operationally disseminate them to decisional factors and all end-

users. The National Meteorological Observation Network within the NMA includes 7 Regional

Meteorological Centers (RMC). Romanian agrometeorological observation network of NMA

provides weekly in-situ monitoring and information are collected, analyzed and compiled by the

Agro-meteorological Service. The agrometeorological of NMA investigates the impact of climate

variability and change on crops (including phenology and yield), and on the main components of soil

water balance. Currently this service enabled monitoring of drought dynamics and assessing the

spatial extent and intensity of drought phenomenon. The monitoring is done daily for agro-

meteorological parameters and the changes in the soil moisture content at the plant level, identifies

periods and agricultural areas seriously affected by extreme events, elaborates weekly bulletins, and

carries out long-term agro-meteorological forecasts upon soil moisture reserves. Modeling and GIS

techniques are used to monitor the spatial extent of extreme weather phenomena, including drought,

and to assess the most vulnerable areas.

The meteorological profile (2013):

Synoptic and climatological observations and measurements: 159 stations

Number of automatic weather stations (MAWS): 126

Agrometeorological observations and measurements stations: 55Radar network: 8 radars (5 C-band and 3 S-band Doppler radars)

Pluviometric observations and measurements: 67 stations.

DROUGHT INDICATORS (thematic maps at national/regional level) used by NMA:

1. Climatic indicators: SPI, Aridity Index, etc;

2. Agrometeorological indicators: Soil moisture, heat waves, ETP, etc;

3. Drought indicators based on satellite-derived products: NDWI, fAPAR, NDVI, CWSI, LAI, etc.

Department of Water, Forests and Pisciculture from the Ministry of Environment and

Climate Change (MECC) coordinates at national, regional and local level the necessary procedures

for the management of emergencies produced by the hydrological drought, such as management of

irrigation systems during the extended drought periods including adjustment of irrigation systems



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which supply water from the Danube River Basin during conditions of hydrological drought. The

“Romanian Waters” National Administration (RWNA) togheter with the National Institute of

Hydrology and Water Management (NIHWM) produces river basin plans for restriction and use of

the water during critical periods, elaborated for each of the 11 Water Basins Administrations

(WBA). These plans are elaborated in conformity with Ministerial Order on the methodology for

water restrictions.

Vulnerability assessment

The present-day and foreseeable climatic data highlight the increase in frequency and intensity of

the drought phenomenon, its potential effects on the most vulnerable sectors (agriculture, waters and

forests, biodiversity, energy, transport etc.)., requiring specific adaptation measures to the limiting

environmental conditions.

Hazards associated to the climate change are greater for:

(1) human health (a higher frequency and longer duration of the heat waves have an impact of

the health of the elderly, negatively impacting the health services, which are overstressed

even in normal weather situations);(2)

food safety (troubles in agriculture, caused by drought and by a non-sustainable approach as

regards the land cultivation at subsistence level);

(3)

biodiversity (forest fires, discontinuation of the ecosystems’ dynamics because of high

temperatures and the modification of precipitation distribution patterns);

(4)

energetic safety (drought influences both over the hydroelectric power plants and the nuclear

power plant from Cernavoda, as their regular activity relies on the befitted level of the

Danube River. This is all the more relevant whereby at country level almost 36% out of the

electricity produced comes from hydro sources and 19% from nuclear sources.).

One of the most visible effects of this situation is noticeable in agriculture, where the vegetal

yield varied largely from year to year, in the context of variable climatic conditions. The 2001-2012

interval was particularly droughty; the drought negatively impacted the agricultural productivity; the

mean yield by ha, decreased by more than 50% on the land surfaces where irrigation systems are

absent. According to Ministry’s of Agriculture and Rural Development data, the excessively

droughty agricultural years 2011-2012 strongly impacted about 5.9 million hectares, the level of

losses varying over different area and culture. Nevertheless, the most affected cultures include corn,

wheat, barley, two-row barley, sunflower, and rape and soya.

Culture Average yield

2009-2010-2011

(Thousand tonnes)

2012

(Thousand

tonnes)

Yield decline

Corn 9,577 5,158 - 46.1 %Wheat 6,048 4,941 - 18.3 %

Barley/Two-row-

barley

1,273 972 - 23.6 %

Potato 3,788 2,430 - 35.8 %

Sunflower 1,383 1,165 - 15.7 %

Rape 750 148 - 80.2 %

Soya 125 70 - 44.0 %

Taking into account the estimations presented at the 4-th IPCC Report, relative to the 1980-

1990 intervals, it is expected the same annual mean warming in Romania as that projected for the



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whole Europe, with slight differences between models over the first decades of the 21st century and

much greater ones toward the end of the century, (within 0.5°C - 1.5°C for 2020-2029, respectively).

As to precipitation, more than 90% of the models have projected for Romania pronounced droughts

during the summer, mainly in south, south-east and east of Romania, with negative deviations from

the current interval 1980-1990 topping 20% (Busuioc at al, 2003; Christensen at al, 2007).

In the conditions in which the climatic scenarios estimate a decrease of the precipitation

amounts, it is expected that the intensity of pedological drought phenomena increased in the mostvulnerable areas already known today, respectively the south, south-east and east of Romania (fig.1).

The pedological drought will reach the highest intensity values (extreme/Co-300 m3/ha and

severe/600-900 m3/ha).

Figure 1. Estimations of the distribution of soil moisture reserve in Romania in the context of predictable climate change

Emergency relief and drought response:

Information management is one of the most important issue for water use and demand, andespecially for an integrated water resource planning and sustainable development in agriculture. A

good information management system is an invaluable tool, succinctly upheld by the maxim: “to

measure is to know”, and can be used to support Water Demand and Drought Management requests.

Early warning drought and risk management systems are obvious and efficient contributors

that can facilitate adaptation to climate variability and changes, if:

- the existing network of meteorological and agrometeorological are developed in order to ensure

reliable ongoing data at national/ regional/local level;

- a historical climate data archive can be provided, especially an archive on climate impacts in

vulnerable sectors on water scarcity and droughts;

- climate data analysis are developed in order to determine the patterns of inter-annual and intra-

seasonal variabillity and extremes;

- the gaps in the development of regional climate scenarios and enhance capacity/experience in the

use of different models are improved;

- information on the characteristics of system vulnerability and adaptation effectiveness such as

resilience, critical thresholds and coping mechanisms are extended to identify opportunities for

adaptation measures to drought, and the potential of particular practices.



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Practices to alleviate drought impacts

Given the effects of climate change in Romania reflected by temperature and precipitation

regime shift, increasing number of droughts events being more and more apparent after 1981, the

pedological extreme and severe drought that is manifested especially in the south, south-east and

east part of Romania as well as the climate change projections in Romania for the 21st century, thatwill result in a high variability of agricultural production, with negative consequences on food

supply and on national economy, the following measures to adapt to the effects of changes climate in

the agricultural sector are required:

supporting agricultural research and experimental production for the modification the structure

of crops and selecting varieties with resistance to drought;

improving the availability and applicability of modeling and adaptation options for the use of

farmers (providing data and results on the response of water resources to climate change

scenarios, promote the use of GIS technology, etc..)

further elaborating of the Good Practice Guides for agriculture, especially for non-irrigated

agriculture;

develop and implement local action plans (at the communa level) for climate changeadaptation;

institutional capacity building in relevant domains regarding drought and water scarcity, as

well as mechanisms to facilitate the exchange of information between institutions.

conduct educational activities for public awareness on the effects of drought, desertification

and water shortages, particularly in rural areas;

At the farm level are very important some elements of adaptation to climate change. Possible

solutions to medium term should include:

adaptation of the periods for conducting agricultural activities;

selection of the crops and varieties better adapted to changes in the growing season and water

available, as well as with greater resistance to new climatic conditions and moisture;

crop adaptation based on use of existing genetic diversity and of the new opportunitiesoffered by biotechnology;

introducing of animals heat-resistant species and adapting of the animal nutritional regime to

the demands caused by climate extremes.

efficient use of water by: reducing water losses, improvement of the irrigation techniques,

water recycling and storage;

better management of soils by increasing water retention to maintain soil moisture;

At the national level, especially in south, south-east and east of Romania where drought will

reach the highest intensity values (extreme/Co-300 m3/ha and severe/600-900 m3/ha) and taking

into account the increase of intensity and frequency of droughty years, it is necessary to provide

investments in irrigation infrastructure and improvement of the water resources management.

Strategy of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in irrigation sector has the

following main objectives:

1. Rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure belonging to the public domain of the State on the area

of approx. 823 thousands hectares, economically viable

2. Changing power solution for 3 irrigation systems with the surface of approx. 56 thousands ha,

which are currently fueling from Siret and Prut powered from magistral channel Siret – Bărăgan

3. Fitting of the area of approximately 425 thousands ha, to be arranged with irrigation works in

areas adjacent of the magistral channel Siret – Bărăgan, powered from the magistral channel Siret -

Bărăgan.



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State of play of the studies/actions already done to reduce exposure to drought risks:

- The Climate Change Adaptation Guide was elaborated and endorsed by the Minister of

Environment through the Ministerial Order 1170/2008.

- Further more, several studies have been finalized or are underway, such as follows:

- INTERREG III-B: “ Agriculture and Climate Change: How to alleviate effects and threats”

delivering as particular outcome the “ Attitude Code towards mitigating the climate change impact in

agriculture” - INTERREG IV-C: “Water scarcity and drought: coordinated actions at EU regional level ” (2012-

2013).

- “CLIMHYDEX – Changes in climate extremes developments and associated impacts to

hydrological events” (2012 – 2015), quantifying and assessing the impact of extreme climate events

to hydrological regime and drought conditions.

- „ADER 111 Geo-reference indicators on various space and time scales for evaluating the

vulnerability and adaptation measures of agro-ecosystems against global changes” (2011-2014)

aiming to enhance the decision support for adaptation measures concerning good practices and

adequate technologies in agriculture, mainly dealing with pedological drought

- MIDMURES – Mitigation Drought in Vulnerable Area of the Mures Basin (2011-2012), financed

by the CE-DGE under the development of prevention activities to halt desertification in Europe. Themain goal of the MIDMURES project was to contribute to improving agricultural water saving and

drought forecasting in the Mures pilot area through the combination of various technical approaches.

The expected results refers to: modeling long-term agro-climatic data in order to establish the risk

factors, to spot the areas with high vulnerability and provide timely drought forecasts; assessing the

impact of climate changes on soil water availability for crops cultivated in the most vulnerable area

of Mures River basin to drought and water scarcity, rainwater conservation in soil for optimizing

water availability according to the plant needs throughout the growing season and in the period with

high deficit.

- The National Climate Change Strategy (2013-2020) addresses two main components: the

reduction in the concentration of greenhouse gases (Mitigation) and the adaptation to climate change

(Adaptation), which is under approval by Romanian Government. On the Adaptation componentwere identified 13 sectors vulnerable to climate change: Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, Tourism,

Public Health, Construction and Infrastructure, Transportation, Water Resources, Forestry, Energy,

Biodiversity, Insurance, Recreation, Education. In this context, the integration of the adaptation in

the sectorial strategies will help to have a comprehensive approach and select appropriate measures

for the direct and indirect effects of climate change (including drought and floods). According to the

provision of the National Strategy on Climate Change - Adaptation Component, the strategy has to

be assumed and continuously improved at the local government level, through relevant, specific

measures for the geo-political conditions, economical context and local public needs. At the same

time, local authorities will develop action plans on climate change.

The need for knowledge and skills on drought management:

The need to improve national drought monitoring and management policies with the goal of

improving preparedness and reducing drought impacts will be based on two main topics:

1)

Monitoring and prediction which should contribute to a broad early warning system;

2) Mapping and assessing the impact of droughts, promote adaptation of best practices, and

develop infrastructure for irrigation based on scientific knowledge (climatic data, soil and

crops data).

Crop efficiency is strongly influenced by climate variability, thus the agro-meteorological

monitoring methods corroborated with additional specialized field observations are the crucial

information sources needed for a correct assessment of vegetative stage, pointing also to the main



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characteristic of the limiting factor. Accurate diagnose of agro-meteorological conditions is a crucial

process needed for understanding the risks caused by extreme weather events and for decision

making and sustainable development actions. Due to the complex nature of drought as well as its

large spatial and temporal extent, the drought risk management system should be developed on the

cross-sectoral whilst national/regional level. There is a major need to elaborate the risk maps for

drought hazard. Thematic drought maps will illustrate the most vulnerable areas to drought and

water deficit at different spatial and temporal scales, including also the impacts on agriculture,forest, water supply and energy and environment. In order to choose the best decision it is needed a

more detailed description of current situation regarding the current conditions and forecast of

limitative conditions (water deficit and drought) in order to elaborate the disaster management plan

in timely manner. In this way the farmer and not only may get benefit by the complex analyses and

advisories to mitigate the effects of limitative conditions.

The second topic will be achieved by: selecting and assembling drought related data and

information concerning drought formation exposure to drought and impacts of droughts; developing

a set of drought indices for various applications that can be calculated in a timely manner based on

the information that is readily available; coupling tools for operational drought early warning and

long term prediction; building a concept for drought hazard, susceptibility to drought and

vulnerability maps generation with the use of GIS techniques; identifying drought managementapproach (immediate response or decrease vulnerability) to recover or mitigate direct and indirect

impacts of drought within economic, environmental and social contexts.

Concerning the set of drought indicators (climatic indicators like SPI and Aridity index or

agro meteorological indicators such as soil moisture, ETP, heat weaves, etc) should be considered a

set of the national and international indicators specific in the field of meteorology and

agrometeorology, climatology, hydrology and soil indicators.

Meteorological activity in Romania is in a extensive process of modernization, so that

Romania should be able to secure and expand the compatibility of their data and meteorological

information communicated according with the commitments through international agreements and

conventions in the field of meteorology. The modernization of meteorological activity in Romaniastarted in previous years- begun recently, through the NIMS – National Integrated Meteorological

System (automatic weather stations, Doppler rader, satellite receiving station, communications and

high-performance processing equipment, etc). On November 29, 2010, Romania officially joined the

Convention on the establishment of an European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological

Satellites (EUMETSAT). The membership is beneficial for Romania given that data and products

from geostationary satellites are received, processed and forwarded to the central and local

authorities. Satellite data are used both in operational activities such as weather forecasting and

agrometeorology, as well as in studies and researches developped in meteorology, agrometeorology,

climatology, remote sensing and geographic information systems. By continuing the modernization

and development of national meteorological system components is essential to ensure permanent

interoperability with the European and international systems and other specialized institutions in this

field.



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