The World in 2050

Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre

Paris Climate Congress 8th July 2015

Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity

Steffen et al Science 16 January 2015

A new direction: People and Planet Setting the agenda on Sustainable Development Goals

Proposed SDG framework – an emerging framework for a new development paradigm

Sustainable Development Goals for People and Planet

The Earth Statement 8 Essential Elements for a Successful Paris Deal

Strategic objective of TWI2050 initiative

The World in 2050 project will explore the design of sustainable development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic and social development within planetary boundaries

A suggestion of 3 project objectives

1. Provide the global community with the 1st generation of global scenarios that meet the Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries 2. Continuously, develop new suite of models by integrating existing world-class models across key sectors allowing for comparisons among alternative Sustainable Development- Business As Usual Pathways, and develop the required analytical and methodological approaches to achieve this. 3. Continuously, explore novel, primarily descriptive approaches associated with social drivers of transformational change, complemented by the analytical and quantitative approaches and planetary boundaries context in order to develop holistic transformational narratives

2015 #10 Nakicenovic

The World in 2050

How to secure global economic development

within a safe and just operating space

Planetary boundaries: e.g. Food; Water;

Energy; Biodiversity; Climate Change

“Safe Space” of interaction among SDGs:

sustainability narratives to integrated models

Transformational and BAU scenarios based on

existing literature e.g. SSPs, GEA, DDPP

Co-benefits of transformational pathways

toward the “safe space” compared to BAU

2015 #11 Nakicenovic

Possible Unified Analytical Approach

Ultimate Drivers

Knowledge and

Understanding

Power

Structure

Culture Values and

Needs

Proximate Drivers

Population Economy Technology Governance

Source: Paul Raskin, 2002

Scenario

Narratives Integrated

Models