Research and Development in theFederal Budget

Matt HourihanApril 26, 2013for the House R&D Caucus

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-9.5%-6.8%-6.6%-6.6%-6.4%-5.2%-5.0%-4.6%-4.5%-4.5%-4.2%-3.9%-3.8%-2.5%

5.5%60.8%

-6.7%

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Other DODTransportation

NASAAgriculture

EPANIH

DOE ScienceDOD S&T

US Geological SurveyDOE Energy Programs

Other HHSNSF

DOE AtomicsVA

NISTDHS

TOTAL

Estimated FY 2013 R&D: Appropriations and Sequester Outcomes

percent change from FY 2012

Source: AAAS estimates based on agency R&D data and budget documents, appropriations documents, and OMB sequester analyses.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Trends in R&D by Agencyin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

ARRA Funding

All Other

USDA

NSF

NASA

DOE

NIH

DOD

Source: AAAS Report: Research & Development series.FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.1976-1994 figures are NSF data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey. © 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%19

76

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Trends in Federal R&DAs a percent of GDP

Total R&D

Development

Research

Facilities

Source: Up to 1994 - National Science Foundation, Survey of Federal Funds for Research and Development; 1995 to Present - AAAS Research and Development series. GDP figures are from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014. FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Life Sciences / GDP

Physical Sciences/GDP

Engineering / GDP

EnvironmentalSciences / GDP

Math / Comp.Sciences / GDP

Federal Funds by Discipline asPercent of GDP, FY 1970-2011

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2010 and 2011 data are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-14.8%

-8.2%

-7.8%

-7.3%

20.2%

66.5%

88.4%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Defense Activities

Agriculture

Health (NIH)

Environment Agencies

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Commerce (NIST)

Applied Energy Programs

R&D Changes by Function Since 2004percent change from FY 2004 to FY 2014, in constant FY 2013 dollars

Source: AAAS Research and Development series, OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$545[Defense R&D]

$73

Nondefense Discretionary

$554

[Nondefense R&D]$70

Social Security$860

Medicare$524

Medicaid$304

Other Mandatory$621

Net Interest$223

Composition of the Proposed FY 2014 BudgetTotal Outlays = $3.8 trillion

outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2014.Projected unified deficit is $744 billion.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

DOD, $69.5

HHS (NIH), $32.0

DOE, $12.7

NASA, $11.6

NSF, $6.3

USDA, $2.5

Commerce, $2.7All Other, $6.7

Total R&D by Agency, FY 2014budget authority in billions of dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS

Total R&D = $144.1 billion

Defense: -5.5%Nondefense: +9.2%

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

1.1%-7.1%-4.6%-1.4%

1.0%1.6%2.1%2.6%6.3%8.2%9.4%

14.0%14.8%

25.0%27.7%

48.6%185.7%

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

TOTALDOD Other

DOD S&TEPAVA

NIHDOT

NASADOE Science

USDANSF

Other HHSDOE Defense

NISTNOAA

DOE EnergyDHS

R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-2.9%-11.1%

-8.6%-5.4%-3.0%-2.4%-1.9%-1.4%

2.3%4.2%5.4%

10.0%10.8%

21.0%23.7%

44.6%181.7%

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

TOTALDOD Other

DOD S&TEPAVA

NIHDOT

NASADOE Science

USDANSF

Other HHSDOE Defense

NISTNOAA

DOE EnergyDHS

R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012 (INFLATION ADJUSTED)

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Admin R&D Priorities Innovation / Science

Clear shifts from D to R, and from Defense to Nondefense

COMPETES Agencies: $12.6 billion (+18% from 2012)

Advanced manufacturing

Permanent R&D Tax Credit

A Low-Carbon Economy Though not nuclear

Homeland Security (NBAF)

Basic research budget flat when adjusted for inflation… But growing when adjusted for sequestration

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense R&D: Recent Decline DOD: $69.5b (-7%)

Boost for basic, everything else cut

Cuts across all military departments and agencies; DARPA flat

DOE Atomic Weapons Continued strong

growth

Homeland Security: National Bio and Agro-defense Facility gets funded

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

General Science: Growth Area

NSF: $6.3B for R&D (+9%) 10-year Trend: +21.9%

Broad investment, especially Engineering, BIO, SBE

Key focus on broad innovation programs Smart systems, materials,

cyberinfrastucture, I-Corps

STEM hub

0

2

4

6

8

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

National Science Foundationin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

Total R&D ARRA

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220Bio Sci

Comp & Info Sci

Engineering

Geosciences

Math & Phys Sci

Soc & Behav Sci

Trends in NSF Program Budgets, FY 2000-2014Standardized with FY 2000 = 100

Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in AAAS Research and Development series. FY 2014 is the request, FY13 are estimates. Adjusted for comparability: Cyberinfrastructure and Polar Programs have been removed from CISE and GEO, respectively, in FY12-14.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

General Science: Growth Area (Cont)

DOE Science: $4.6B for R&D (+6%)10-year trend: 18.1%

Growth everywhere but High Energy Physics

Continued (but restrained) investment in ITER

Exascale?

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

DOE Office of Science R&Din millions of constant FY 2013 dollars

DOE OS R&D Recovery Act

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Adv Sci Comp Res

Basic EnergySciences

Bio and EnvResearch

Fusion EnergySciences

High-EnergyPhysics

Nuclear Physics

Trends in DOE Science Budgets, FY 2000-2014Standardized, with FY 2000 = 100

Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in AAAS Research and Development series. FY 2014 figure is the President's budget request, FY 2013 is an estimate. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

NIH: Continued Stagnation

10-year trend: -10% Only notable boosts:

NCATS, National Institute for Aging, NLM

BRAIN Initiative ($40 million) Details forthcoming

Big data ($41 million) Success rate? Also: DOD Health cut,

again

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Energy R&D: Major growth Area

DOE Energy Programs: $3.1 billion (+16%) Driven by EERE, ARPA-E

And in spite of fossil energy cuts

Double 2004 levels

But nuclear energy, once a driver, is cut this year

Proposed: Energy Security Trust

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Dept of Energyin millions of constant FY 2013 dollars

DOE Energy Programs ARRA

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

NASA Total Budgetin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

NASA NASA ARRA

NASA: Mixed signals? Science cut, few notable

boosts Except Webb

Planetary science continued target for cuts

Aeronautics remains flat

Asteroid vs. Moon? Commercial crew increases?

What about exploration? Orion, SLS cut

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Agriculture R&D: Turnaround? USDA: $2.5B for R&D

(+8.2%) 10-year trend: -8.8%

Boosts for intramural and extramural alike Agriculture and Food

Research Initiative: $383m

And this leaves out Biomass R&D 0

1

2

3

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

USDA R&Din billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

Total R&D ARRA

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Environment R&D: Mixed news

EPA cut 10 year trend: -32.0%

USGS continues modest growth… 10 year trend: +10.5%

And NOAA arrests recent slide? 10 year trend: -5.2%

Global Change Research Program

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004

2007

2010

2013

US Geological Survey R&Din millions of constant FY 2013 dollars

Total

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

What it all adds up to… A shift towards nondefense research, but particularly of

the use-inspired variety Without abandoning basic research

Some longer-term trends will continue See: DOD, NSF, DOE, NIH, EPA, NASA

Also see: general budget mix

The BIG question: How does one fit a $1057 billion budget into a $966 billion hole?

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$1820

08

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Sequestration and the COMPETES Agenciesin billions of nominal dollars

COMPETES 2010Path

ARRA

Pre-SequestrationBaseline

Post-SequestrationProjection

Actuals

COMPETES Agencies include NIST, NSF, and DOE Office of Science. Based on AAAS estimates of R&D funding under sequestration, appropriations documents, and historical agency budgets.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

For more info…mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607

www.aaas.org/spp/rd/

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