The FY 2016 R&D Budget: Review and Context

Matt HourihanMarch 2, 2015for the ASME Inter-Sector Committee on Federal R&D

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

Defense Discretionary

$528 [Defense R&D]$77

Nondefense Discretionary

$495

[Nondefense R&D]$69

Social Security$938

Medicare$583

Medicaid$351

Other Mandatory$670

Net Interest$283

Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 BudgetTotal Outlays = $4.0 trillion

outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law

President's FY 2016 Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

6.4%

-35.5%0.9%

2.2%

5.0%

8.1%

12.6%

17.8%

20.5%

23.3%

44.8%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

TOTAL

Justice (DHS)

Space

Health (NIH)

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Defense Activities

Environment Agencies

Transportation

Agriculture

Applied Energy Programs

Commerce (NIST)

FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Functionpercent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS

DOD, $71.9

HHS (NIH), $31.0

DOE, $12.5

NASA, $12.2

NSF, $6.3

USDA, $2.9

Commerce, $2.1All Other, $6.2

Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016budget authority in billions of dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS

Total R&D = $145.3 billion

Major Funding Priorities Advanced Manufacturing Low-carbon energy Climate research and earth observation Agricultural R&D Infrastructure R&D Antibiotic Resistance* Precision Medicine* Discovery Science:

Life sciences and neuroscience Advanced computing

COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%

*New for FY16

National Security DOD S&T, DARPA flat 8.3% cut to basic research

NNSA: cuts to nonproliferation R&D, select RDT&E accounts

DHS: NBAF funding completed; moderate cuts elsewhere in S&T Directorate

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$2

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$14

$16

$18

Trends in DOD Science & Technologyin billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

ARRA Medical researchAdv Tech (6.3) Applied (6.2)Basic (6.1)

Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS

Advanced Manufacturing National Network of Manufacturing Innovation proposal

revived Discretionary / mandatory mix NIST Labs also boosted across an array of areas

EERE: Advanced Manufacturing office doubled

NSF: CEMMSS cross-agency initiative boosted

Energy Technology offices: renewed

focus on efficiency, renewables, ARPA-E, smart grid Manufacturing office to

double

DOE Science: +5.4% Advanced Computing:

+14.8% Domestic fusion research cut

10% ITER flat

Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs funding continues

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DOE Office of Science BudgetsBudget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars

Adv Sci Comp Basic Energy Sci

Bio Env Res Fusion Energy

High-Energy Phys Nuclear Phys

Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.© 2015 AAAS

Climate and Environment NOAA Office of Research: Major (~20%) boost for

climate research Elsewhere at NOAA: planned decreases for GOES-R, JPSS

to make room for Polar Follow-On

USGS: +14%, focus on climate resilience NASA Earth Science boost

“The 2016 Budget redefines NASA and NOAA Earth observing satellite responsibilities to leverage NASA Earth Science’s expertise in developing Earth-observing satellites while allowing NOAA to focus its development efforts on its weather satellites and weather forecasting mission. Under the new framework, NOAA will be responsible only for satellite missions that contribute directly to NOAA’s ability to issue weather and space weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property. NASA will be responsible for other nondefense Earth-observing satellite missions.”

EPA S&T moderately increased

National Science Foundation Total Budget: +5.2% Highest relative changes:

SBE: +7.1% Engineering: +6.4%

EHR: +11.2% New priority areas:

Food/Water/Energy Nexus; climate resilience

Several other cross-agency initiatives boosted

NASA Total budget: +2.9% Familiar contours:

Earth Science, Space Technology boosted

Exploration Systems Development, Aeronautics funding reduced

NASA taking over select satellite programs from NOAA

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$4

$8

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$16

$20

ARRA OtherExploration Systems Space OperationsSpace Technology AeronauticsScience

NASA Budget, FY 2007 - 2016in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

"Other" includes support, construction, OIG, and education programs. © 2015 AAAS

National Institutes of Health $1 billion increase (+3.3%) Largest relative increases:

Aging, NCATS Antibiotic Resistance: $100

million for NIAID $200 million for Precision

Medicine initiative BRAIN Initiative contribution

increases to $135 million Success rate: 19.3%

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$45

Figure 1: NIH Budget(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)

ARRA Funding General Med SciCancer NIAIDHeart Lung Blood NIDDKMental Health All Other

Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebola-related fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS

Agriculture AFRI Increased to $450 million

(+38.5%) ARS receives $200 million

injection for facilities Two “innovation institutes”:

biomanufacturing and nanocellulosics

$77 million total for antibiotic resistance research

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

USDA R&D, FY 2000-2016in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

ARRA Forest Service

Nat'l Inst Food Agr Econ Res Service

Agr Res Service Other

Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and appropriations reports. © 2015 AAAS

Looking ahead…

Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve?

Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Debt limit, entitlement growth Reconciliation strategy?

3. agency notes R&D STEM

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

TOTAL

Homeland Security

DOD S&T

DOE Defense

NASA

National Institutes of Health

DOE Science

National Science Foundation

Veterans Affairs

Environ Protection Agency

DOD Other

US Geological Survey

Agriculture

DOE Energy Programs

Transportation

NOAA

NIST

Current Estimates of R&D in the FY16 Budgetpercent change from FY15, constant dollars

Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. The above adjusts for inflation, expected at 1.6 percent. AAAS | Feb. 6, 2015

Thanks!

mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607http

://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program