Research and Development inFY 2014Matt HourihanApril 25, 2013for the National Research Council Board on Life Sciences

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-6.6%

-6.4%

-5.2%

-5.0%

-4.6%

-4.2%

-3.9%

60.8%

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Agriculture

EPA

NIH

DOE Science

DOD S&T

All Other HHS

NSF

DHS

Estimated FY 2013 R&D: Appropriations and Sequester Outcomes

percent change from FY 2012

Source: AAAS estimates based on agency R&D data and budget documents, appropriations documents, and OMB sequester analyses.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Trends in R&D by Agencyin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

ARRA Funding

All Other

USDA

NSF

NASA

DOE

NIH

DOD

Source: AAAS Report: Research & Development series.FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.1976-1994 figures are NSF data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey. © 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%19

76

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Trends in Federal R&DAs a percent of GDP

Total R&D

Development

Research

Facilities

Source: Up to 1994 - National Science Foundation, Survey of Federal Funds for Research and Development; 1995 to Present - AAAS Research and Development series. GDP figures are from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014. FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Life Sciences / GDP

Physical Sciences/GDP

Engineering / GDP

EnvironmentalSciences / GDP

Math / Comp.Sciences / GDP

Federal Funds by Discipline asPercent of GDP, FY 1970-2011

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2010 and 2011 data are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$545[Defense R&D]

$73

Nondefense Discretionary

$554

[Nondefense R&D]$70

Social Security$860

Medicare$524

Medicaid$304

Other Mandatory$621

Net Interest$223

Composition of the Proposed FY 2014 BudgetTotal Outlays = $3.8 trillion

outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2014.Projected unified deficit is $744 billion.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$120

[Defense R&D]$15

Nondefense Discretionary

$126

[Nondefense R&D]$16

Social Security$117

Medicare$31

Medicaid$14

Other Mandatory$100

Net Interest$53

Composition of the FY 1980 Budgetoutlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.© 2012 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$254[Defense R&D]

$41

Nondefense Discretionary

$287

[Nondefense R&D]$33

Social Security$406

Medicare$194

Medicaid$118

Other Mandatory$233

Net Interest$223

Composition of the FY 2000 Budgetoutlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.© 2012 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$519[Defense R&D]

$65

Nondefense Discretionary

$570

[Nondefense R&D]$72

Social Security$1,080

Medicare$607

Medicaid$391

Other Mandatory$677

Net Interest$462

Composition of the FY 2018 Budget?outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2014.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-2.9%-11.1%

-8.6%-5.4%-3.0%-2.4%-1.9%-1.4%

2.3%4.2%5.4%

10.0%10.8%

21.0%23.7%

44.6%181.7%

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

TOTALDOD Other

DOD S&TEPAVA

NIHDOT

NASADOE Science

USDANSF

Other HHSDOE Defense

NISTNOAA

DOE EnergyDHS

R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012 (INFLATION ADJUSTED)

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense R&D: Recent Decline DOD: $69.5b (-7%)

Boost for basic, everything else cut

Homeland Security: National Bio and Agro-defense Facility getting built Otherwise, DHS is flat

following recent growth

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

General Science: Growth Area NSF: $6.3B for R&D

(+9%) 10-year Trend: +21.9% Broad investment,

especially Engineering, BIO, SBE

Key focus on broad innovation programs

STEM hub DOE Science: $4.6B for

R&D (+6%) 10-year trend: 18.1% Growth everywhere but

High Energy Physics BER: +6% (foundational

genome science)

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

NIH: Continued Stagnation

10-year trend: -10% Only notable boosts:

NCATS, National Institute for Aging, NLM

BRAIN Initiative ($40 million) Details forthcoming

Big data ($41 million) Concern: Basic /

applied split?

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Next steps… The BIG question: resolving differences over

discretionary spending How does Congress fit a $1057 billion budget into a $966

billion hole?

Further details on STEM strategy Consolidation/reduction plus spending boost (DOEd,

Smithsonian, NSF)

COMPETES

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$1820

08

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Sequestration and the COMPETES Agenciesin billions of nominal dollars

COMPETES 2010Path

ARRA

Pre-SequestrationBaseline

Post-SequestrationProjection

Actuals

COMPETES Agencies include NIST, NSF, and DOE Office of Science. Based on AAAS estimates of R&D funding under sequestration, appropriations documents, and historical agency budgets.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

0.14%

0.16%

0.18%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Bio Sciences / GDP

Environmental Bio /GDP

Agricultural / GDP

Medical / GDP

Other Life Science /GDP

Federal Funds For Life Sciences asPercent of GDP, FY 1970-2011

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2010 and 2011 data are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Basic Research

AppliedResearch

NIH R&D By Character, FY 1976-2014in billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

Source: AAAS Research and Development series. FY 2013 figures are estimates based on AAAS analysis of appropriations and sequestration; FY 2014 is the President's request.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Basic

Applied

Composition of NIH R&D By Character, FY 1976-2014Percent of total research

Source: AAAS Research and Development series. FY 2013 figures are estimates based on AAAS analysis of appropriations and sequestration; FY 2014 is the President's request.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

NSF

NASA

DOE Science

FDA

EPA

USDA

NIH

Select Nondefense R&D Agency Funding Changes,FY 1998-2004

Adjusted for inflation, FY 1998 = 100

Source: AAAS Research and Development series.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

For more info…

mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607

www.aaas.org/spp/rd/