1.From Election Campaign to the Post-Election Prospects

2. How the Democratic and GOP presidential candidates treatedAsia and Asia policy in the 2012 election campaign 3. First, Let us examine how Chinawas treated in the 2012 campaign: 4. 2012: Political ire toward China 5. In the 2012 election, both parties cranked up theirrhetoric against the worlds second-largesteconomy China-bashing easy and cheap for US candidates China-bashing used to attract American voters There is a lot of talk about the polarization ofpolitical parties in the U.S. these days. But partycandidates from the left or the right, liberal orconservative, seem to unite on one issue bashing China The China-bashing syndrome:Demonizing China 6. For both US political parties, thetarget was the same: China 7. The arguments sound familiar:China stealing US jobs 8. Some companies accused oftreachery, another familiar theme 9. Political War on ChinaThe Romney and Obama campaigns ran TV commercials aboutwho is softer on China, and who is more to blame for sendingAmerican jobs there.The Romney ad: Under Obama weve lost over half a millionmanufacturing jobs, and for the first time China is beating us.Seven times Obama could have stopped Chinas cheating. Seventimes he refused. Then it cuts to Mr. Romney, who declares, Itstime to stand up to the cheaters and make sure we protect jobsfor the American people.The announcer concludes, Barack Obama failing to stop cheating,failing American workers.Obama ad opens on an incredulous note. Mitt Romney tough onChina? an announcer asks. Romneys companies were calledpioneers in shipping U.S. manufacturing jobs overseas. Heinvested in firms that specialized in relocating jobs to low-wagecountries like China. Even today part of Romneys fortune isinvested in China. Romney never stood up to China. All hes doneis send them our jobs. 10. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYKAbRK_wKA 11. Clever Propaganda, Bad Facts If you know anything about the Chinese economy, theactual analytical content in the commercial ishilariously wrong. The ad has the Chinese official saying that Americacollapsed because, in the midst of a recession, it reliedon (a) government stimulus spending, (b) big changesin its health care systems, and (c) public interventionin major industries -- all of which of course have beencritical parts of Chinas (successful) anti-recessionpolicy. 12. The King-Kong-like investmentthreat from China 13. The Economist spotted the trend 14. Campaign Memories 15. JAPANS 100 YEARS OF DECLINE Some tough words about Japan from Mitt Romney at hisNew York City fundraiser on 8/9/12, per pool reporter ZekeMiller: "I know when things are tough as they have been for thelast three-and-a-half, four years people begin to think itsalways [inaudible] We are not Japan. We are not goingto be a nation that suffers in decline and distress for adecade or a century. Were on the cusp of a very differenteconomic future than the one people have seen over thepast three years." UPDATE: The line about declining for "a century" was asurprise; others, including President Obama in 2009. havespoken about the "long decade of decline" that Japansuffered from. Romneys statement was off the mark. 16. Reactions to Romneys Remark Japan experts on both sides of the Pacific respondedthat Romneys assertion that Japan has been indecline for a century shows ignorance of a nationthat emerged from the ashes of World War II to buildthe worlds second- (now third-) largest economy on asmall island with few natural resources. Moreover, they worry that Romney is needlesslyinsulting the face-conscious Japanese and giving themthe impression that is he wins in November, hisadministration wont appreciate the importance ofAmericas top alliance in the East at a time when theUnited States is attempting a diplomatic and militarypivot to Asia. 17. Silent on American allies Romney in his campaign seemed overly concernedabout protecting allied and friendly governmentsagainst the least offense As a result, he rarely said much about U.S. allies oneway or the other. If one reviews his campaign website,one finds that Japan is one of the very few treaty alliesthat received any mention Even then, references to Japan and South Korea inthat part were perfunctory and told us almost nothing 18. Hardly any mention of Japan, let along Asia, in the longcampaign.Yet, once upon a time, Japan would have been fair game inthe election campaigns on both U.S. political parties. 19. In the 1980s and early 1980s,Washington was awash in waves ofJapan Bashing that in some ways resemble the China Bashing ofthe 2012 Presidential Campaign 20. 1980s: Japan Bashing (Nihon-tataki) 1990s on: Japan Passing 2001-06: Japan Rising (under PM Koizumi) 2007-09: Japan Nothing 2009-: Japan Falling (apart)Perceptions and Slogans 21. After SONY purchased Columbia (Newsweek) 22. Revisionist Views of JapanAssumptions:-- Japans economy inherently closed, protected by non-tariff barriers-- Japanese capitalism is unique to it, with internationalrules, signals not applicable-- Japans economic system is adversarial and a threat,designed to gain industrial dominance byundermining competitors (predatory practices)--Japan was an outlier nation that must be contained 23. Revisionist Views of JapanRevisionist policy prescriptions:-- US must recognize Japan as different, closed, and athreat-- US must meet the challenge by industrial policyemulating Japans-- US needs to pursue numerical market share targets inorder to gain access to the Japanese market: MakeJapan guarantee US a share of the market-- Clinton administration tried in trade negotiations toforce Japan to accept numerical import targets 24. Rising Sun depictsAmerican paranoiaMichael Crichton wrote RISING SUN in1992, when Japan was considered a bigeconomic threat to the United States.Since then, Japans economy has falleninto a long-term recession, and it has soldback many of the American properties itpurchased over a decade ago. Japan is stilla serious economic force, but its nolonger the economic bogeyman it used tobe.Theres a decent murder mystery inRISING SUN, but this novel is essentiallyan excuse for Crichton to express his fearof Japanese business practices. Much ofthe dialogue in this novel is stilted, and ismerely a front for Crichton to express hisview that the American way of doingbusiness is outdated, and cannot competeeffectively against Japanese methods.Many of the characters are nothing morethan caricatures designed to push thismessage.The novel was made into a movie starringSean Connery. 25. Detroit Workers Smash Japanese Car 26. What anti-Japanese incidentoccurred in Detroit in June 1982? 27. Japan-bashing=Asian-bashingVincent Jen Chin was a Chinese-American beaten to death in June 1982, inDetroit Michigan.The perpetrators were Chrysler plant superintendent Ronald Ebens and hisstepson, Michael Nitz. The murder generated public outrage over the lenientsentencing the two men originally received in a plea bargain, as the attack,which included blows to the head from a baseball bat, possessed manyattributes consistent with hate crimes. Chin was killed because his attackersbelieved he was Japanese.Ebens never served a day in jail for killing Chin. Many of the layoffs in Detroitsauto industry, including Nitzs in 1979, had been due to the increasing marketshare of Japanese automakers, leading to allegations that Chinese AmericanVincent Chin received racially charged comments before his death.[ The case became a rallying point for the Asian-American community, and Ebens and Nitz were put on trial for violating Chins civil rights. Because the subsequent Federal prosecution was a result of public pressure from a coalition of many Asian ethnic organizations, Vincent Chins murder is often considered the beginning of a pan-ethnic Asian American movement 28. A similar incident occurred but this time in another country .. 29. In China, similar Japan-bashing incident in 2012 30. Man beaten for driving Japanese car in Xian China 2012In September, Li Jianli was beaten almost to death by amob and a month later lay partially paralyzed on ahospital bed with his skull smashed in and hisspeaking ability reduced to a few simple phrases.Mr. Lis only offense, apparently, was driving a Japanese car. A mob stopped his car on a wide boulevard in the middle of Xian and beat him to a pulp. 31. Ushering in a long period of economic decline for Japan: The Lost Decade that ultimately stretched out to two decades of sluggish growth 32. As a result, Japan in the 1990s was seen asirrelevant. The slogan Japan Passing waspicked up by the media According to the Economist, the phrase JapanPassing has two meanings: (1) that worlds thensecond largest economy was being passed by in a fast-changing world, and (2) that Japan could no longereven be taken seriously. It may have originated when then president Clintonmade a nine-day visit to China in 1998 but did not stopoff in Japan. 33. By the 2000s, Japan Nothing is the theme 34. Expectations of Japan and China in the year ahead 35. What kind of Asia policy would a President Romney pursue?What would be expected of Japan in the Alliance? How would a Romney administration deal with China? 36. Political instability, economic uncertainty, and a plethora ofdiplomatic, security, trade, economic and energy issues. 37. Came into office with a promise of strong leadership,decisiveness, and cohesiveness in policy process, but facingmajor policy challenges that ultimately he may not overcome 38. Nodas Relationship with Obamahas been much better than hispredecessors 39. Accomplishments and Challenges Noda has continued to strengthen the alliance Joint training between the SDF and USFJ for remote-island contingencies But Okinawa basing issues remain unresolved andsome might argue getting worse: Futenma relocation is on hold Osprey deployment to Futenma opposed by Okinawa Another serious crime by U.S. servicemen, followed by acrime by another servicemen after curfew Okinawa governor in between a rock and a hard place 40. Okinawa Governor Nakaima 41. Nodas Security Policy Agenda PKO to Sudan Beefed up anti-piracy operation in waters off Somalia Accepted U.S. offer to engage the SDF in full-scaledtraining with U.S. forces in Guam and Tinian, positingthe defense of Japans remote islands Emerging strategic view (with Defense Chief SatoshiMorimoto) toward China Morimoto has requested US for updated DefenseCooperation Guidelines (reflecting current securityenvironment) 42. Nodas Security Agenda(continued) Noda in Dec. 2011 cleared the way for easingrestrictions on arms export to make it possible forJapan to participate in development and production ofmilitary equipment with other countries The decision especially affects development of the F-35, Japans next-generation fighter Japans defense industry gets a boost, too 43. New Set of Defense Cooperation Guidelines If the DPJ stays in power, expect to see the U.S. andJapan revise the current set of bilateral defensecooperation guidelines that provide for joint stepsduring a contingency The last revision in 1997 was based on a KoreanPeninsula contingency The next one will update the focus based on securitychanges involving China and the E. and S. China seas 44. Ballistic Missile Defense During Secretary Panettas visit to Japan, it wasannounced that the US and Japan have agreed to setup a second missile defense system on Japanese soil inan effort to counter the ballistic missile threat fromNorth Korea China does not agree it is solely intended for the NorthKorean threat 45. Noda Administration in Crisis 46. Can Noda Survive? 47. Noda May Call Snap Election With his third cabinet shuffle in a year, and pressuredto dissolve the Diet in November for an early LowerHouse election once two critical bills are passed, Nodaseems unable to avoid making good on his promise tothe opposition LDP-Komeito But his party will run with only a fraction of its originalstrength (next slide), and it is likely that the DPJ willlose. TPP may be entangled in the election campaign,further splitting his party. 48. Party Strength in Lower House 49. DPJ vs. LDP in the Polls 50. Future of the DPJ seems bleak Likelihood of the DPJ returning to the oppositioncamp Possibility of the LDP not winning a majority of seatsin the Lower House This would require parties to scramble to form a rulingcoalition This could return the LDP to power as a member of acoalition that could include several small or splinterparties 51. The Territorial Issues Nodas biggest challenge has been the territorial rowswith China and South Korea. First, the ROK: The feud over the Takeshima-Dokdo isles with theROK stemmed from a political stunt by outgoingPresident Lee Myung-bak The issue is likely to be quietly back-burnered after theROK elections, as cooler heads prevail But deep wounds have been inflicted in the bilateralrelationship that will take time to heal Security ties (including GSOMIA and ACSA) hurt 52. China Extends Boundary 53. Chinas Shore-Sea Air Battle Concept 54. Senkaku Islands (Dyaoyu-dao) 55. The GOJ purchase of the Senkakus set off a huge waveof violence against Japan all over China 56. Asahi Poll of Japan-China Relationsin 2012 57. Translation of AsahiPoll Japan: Current state of Japan-China relations? Going well: 5%; Not going well: 90%Previous poll in 2010: Going well: 45%; Not going well: 45% China: Current state of China-Japan relations? Going well: 14%; Not going well: 83%Previous poll in 2010: Going well: 22%; Not going well 50% Current poll: Top three issues in order Japan: Territorial, History, Econ. friction China: History, Territorial, Military buildup 58. Rioters smash cars, burn buildings 59. Demonstrators at Japanese Dept.Store 60. The sign above theentrance reads:"JAPANESE GUESTS ARENOT CURRENTLY BEINGACCOMMODATED BY OURHOTEL" 61. The irony is this isat an Audidealership!Employees at a dealershiphold up a sign that says WEWILL KILL EVERY JAPANESEPERSON EVEN IF IT MEANSDEATHS FOR OUR OWN;EVEN POVERTY WILL NOTDETER US FROMRECLAIMING THE DIAOYUISLANDS 62. Japanese brand cars are overturned by riotersThis happened all over China 63. Riots like these occurred in over100 citiesThe sign in the foreground reads DEFEND DIAOYU ISLANDS TILL OURDEATHS and FUCK JAPAN 64. There was no end to the insulting imagesThe pig has a Japanese flag symbol on its head 65. New Leaders in China: Change inPosture toward Japan?