Preserving Blue Carbon ... World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature...

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Transcript of Preserving Blue Carbon ... World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature...

  • Preserving Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from

    Coastal Ecosystems

    RFF Breakfast September 27, 2011

    Juha Siikamäki (RFF)

    with Jim Sanchirico (UC Davis), Sunny Jardine (UC Davis)

    Dave McLaughlin and Danny Morris (RFF)

    Funding by

    Linden Trust for Conservation, Vicki and Roger Sant, and Resources for the Future

  • 1

    Mangroves

  • Salt Marshes

    and Sea

    Grasses

    2

  • Coastal Development

    3

  • Motivation

     Coastal ecosystems constitute significant carbon storage

     Coastal development threatens coastal areas  Agriculture, aquaculture, residential, tourism, industrial

     Mangrove area reduced by 0.7-2% annually (estimates vary)

     Releases carbon stored in biomass and soils, prevents further accumulation

     Forests and REDD  Potential for low-cost emission reductions

     Integral part of climate policy considerations

     Information on blue carbon accumulating  Substantial literature on natural sciences

     World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010)

     Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011)

  • Is there economic potential for

    “blue REDD”?

    5

    • Will benefits from avoided emissions outweigh the costs?

    • Benefits measured using the value of potential offset credits

    • Costs include opportunity cost of land, set up costs, O&M • Agricultural gross revenues as land value indicator

    • Spatially fine resolution dataset (Naidoo and Iwamura 2007) calibrated

    to World Bank (2010) country-estimates of land values

    • Avoided emissions depend on • Amount of carbon in an area (literature reviews, meta-analysis of soil C)

    • Risk of land conversion (FAO data 1990-2005)

    • Carbon released as a result of land conversion (range of emission profiles)

    • All of the above varies by location • 9*9 km parcels as our unit of analysis, each parcel described separately

    • Total over 25,000 potential target areas

    • Current protections netted out (UNEP-WCMC data)

  • Contributions

    6

    Overall assessment plus four distinct contributions 1. First global assessment of potential blue carbon offset supply using

    spatially fine resolution • Addresses considerable variation found within country and between regions

    2. Estimating location-specific amount of soil carbon in mangroves • Meta-analysis of data from a large number of studies (941 obs, 30 countries)

    • First country-specific estimates of soil carbon in mangroves

    3. Governance considerations and potential supply of carbon offsets • Global and regional supply under governance effectiveness constraints

    4. Biodiversity co-benefits from carbon offsets • Systematic assessment using IUCN data on species ranges

    Murray et al. (2010) provides the closest similar

    Assessment • Uses country and global level information

    • Complementary in the approach and results

  • Mangroves

    7

  • Sea Grasses

    8

  • Mangroves and Sea Grasses

    9

  • Mangroves: A Closer Look

    Americas

    10

  • 11

    Bahamas, Cuba

  • 12

    Bahamas Close-up

  • Mangrove Areas in Bahamas

    13

    Bahamas Close-up II

  • South Florida

    14

  • SE Asia, Oceania

    15

  • 16

    Borneo

  • 17

    Borneo: Protected Areas

  • 18

    Global Area of Blue Carbon

    Habitats (1000s km2)

    139

    51

    319

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses

    T h

    o u

    sa n

    d s

  • Top Countries

    19

    0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

    Indonesia

    Australia

    Mexico

    Nigeria

    United States

    Brazil

    Cuba

    Guinea-Bissau

    Saudi Arabia

    Philippines

    Percentage of Global of Total Mangrove Seagrass

  • 20

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses

    Biomass

    Soil

    Carbon Stock per Area (tons per hectare)

  • 21

    Mangroves Are Especially Carbon

    Rich Forests

    Source: Donato et al. 2011, Nature Geoscience April 3, 2011

  • 22

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses

    Biomass

    Soil

    Global Blue Carbon Stock (billions of tons)

  • 23

    Global Emissions

    (millions tons C, annually)

    Note: Global emissions from deforestation about 1.2 Pg yr -1 (van der Werf et a. 2009)

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses

  • 24

    Globally Annual Losses

    Mangroves, km2 139,170 km2 1,009 km2

    Total carbon pool 7 Pg C 26.5 mill t C

    Total carbon at risk, on

    average 291 t ha-1 262 t ha-1

    Current protections 631,767 ha 4,500 ha (avoided

    losses)

    Carbon in protected areas 187 million tons 1.2 million tons

    (emissions avoided)

    Mangrove Area, Carbon, and

    Current Protections

  • Mangrove Carbon Stock, by Country

    25

  • Emissions from Mangrove Loss

    26

  • 27

    Marginal Cost of Preserving Mangrove

    Carbon

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    HighLow Central

    Range of 2011

    ETS prices

    $/ to

    n of

    C O

    2

    CO 2 , million of tons

  • 28

    Global and Regional Supply

  • 29

    Global and Regional Supply

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    $/ to

    n of

    C O

    2

    Global

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30 Americas and Caribbean

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    CO 2 , million of tons

    $/ to

    n of

    C O

    2

    Africa and Middle East

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    CO 2 , million of tons

    Asia and Oceania

  • 30

    Governance Effectiveness

  • 31

    Blue Carbon Supply and Governance

    Effectiveness

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30 $ /t

    o n o

    f C

    O 2

    Global: With TAE

    AllTop 50 Top 90

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30 Americas and Caribbean

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    CO 2 , million of tons

    $ /t

    o n o

    f C

    O 2

    Africa and Middle East

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    CO 2 , million of tons

    Asia and Oceania

  • 32

    Biodiversity:

    Mangroves

  • 33

    Biodiversity:

    Other species in mangrove areas

    1. Birds 2. Endangered Birds

    3. Amphibians 4. Reptiles

  • Biodiversity Focused Targeting Approaches:

    Estimated Additional Costs

    34

    0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

    x 10 7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    Carbon per ton

    D if fe

    re n c e i n b

    u d g e t

    ($ m

    ill io

    n s )

    Mangrove

    Biodiversity

    Endgangered Birds

    Uniform

  • Blue Carbon and Climate Policy

    Frameworks  International Agreements (UNFCCC)

     Conversations forming but notable presence not yet established

     REDD could provide a basic framework (some modifications needed)

     Basic research needed to help gain a better understanding

     Bilateral Agreements  More flexible than UNFCCC (e.g. Norway-Indonesia arrangement includes not

    only forests but also peatlands)

     Regional/State Programs  EU ETS accepts CDM/JI offset credits; remains generally skeptical towards land

    use based offset (not included until after 2020)

     RGGI allows afforestation credits but only in the member states

     California AB 32

     forests defined broadly enough to include mangroves, but credits must be in the US

     bila