Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse...
Transcript of Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse...
Preserving Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from
Coastal Ecosystems
RFF Breakfast September 27, 2011
Juha Siikamäki (RFF)
with Jim Sanchirico (UC Davis), Sunny Jardine (UC Davis)
Dave McLaughlin and Danny Morris (RFF)
Funding by
Linden Trust for Conservation, Vicki and Roger Sant, and Resources for the Future
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Mangroves
Salt Marshes
and Sea
Grasses
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Coastal Development
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Motivation
Coastal ecosystems constitute significant carbon storage
Coastal development threatens coastal areas Agriculture, aquaculture, residential, tourism, industrial
Mangrove area reduced by 0.7-2% annually (estimates vary)
Releases carbon stored in biomass and soils, prevents further accumulation
Forests and REDD Potential for low-cost emission reductions
Integral part of climate policy considerations
Information on blue carbon accumulating Substantial literature on natural sciences
World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010)
Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011)
Is there economic potential for
“blue REDD”?
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• Will benefits from avoided emissions outweigh the costs?
• Benefits measured using the value of potential offset credits
• Costs include opportunity cost of land, set up costs, O&M • Agricultural gross revenues as land value indicator
• Spatially fine resolution dataset (Naidoo and Iwamura 2007) calibrated
to World Bank (2010) country-estimates of land values
• Avoided emissions depend on • Amount of carbon in an area (literature reviews, meta-analysis of soil C)
• Risk of land conversion (FAO data 1990-2005)
• Carbon released as a result of land conversion (range of emission profiles)
• All of the above varies by location • 9*9 km parcels as our unit of analysis, each parcel described separately
• Total over 25,000 potential target areas
• Current protections netted out (UNEP-WCMC data)
Contributions
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Overall assessment plus four distinct contributions 1. First global assessment of potential blue carbon offset supply using
spatially fine resolution • Addresses considerable variation found within country and between regions
2. Estimating location-specific amount of soil carbon in mangroves • Meta-analysis of data from a large number of studies (941 obs, 30 countries)
• First country-specific estimates of soil carbon in mangroves
3. Governance considerations and potential supply of carbon offsets • Global and regional supply under governance effectiveness constraints
4. Biodiversity co-benefits from carbon offsets • Systematic assessment using IUCN data on species ranges
Murray et al. (2010) provides the closest similar
Assessment • Uses country and global level information
• Complementary in the approach and results
Mangroves
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Sea Grasses
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Mangroves and Sea Grasses
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Mangroves: A Closer Look
Americas
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Bahamas, Cuba
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Bahamas Close-up
Mangrove Areas in Bahamas
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Bahamas Close-up II
South Florida
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SE Asia, Oceania
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Borneo
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Borneo: Protected Areas
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Global Area of Blue Carbon
Habitats (1000s km2)
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319
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Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses
Th
ou
san
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Top Countries
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Indonesia
Australia
Mexico
Nigeria
United States
Brazil
Cuba
Guinea-Bissau
Saudi Arabia
Philippines
Percentage of Global of Total Mangrove Seagrass
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0
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Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses
Biomass
Soil
Carbon Stock per Area (tons per hectare)
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Mangroves Are Especially Carbon
Rich Forests
Source: Donato et al. 2011, Nature Geoscience April 3, 2011
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Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses
Biomass
Soil
Global Blue Carbon Stock (billions of tons)
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Global Emissions
(millions tons C, annually)
Note: Global emissions from deforestation about 1.2 Pg yr -1 (van der Werf et a. 2009)
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Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses
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Globally Annual Losses
Mangroves, km2 139,170 km2 1,009 km2
Total carbon pool 7 Pg C 26.5 mill t C
Total carbon at risk, on
average 291 t ha-1 262 t ha-1
Current protections 631,767 ha 4,500 ha (avoided
losses)
Carbon in protected areas 187 million tons 1.2 million tons
(emissions avoided)
Mangrove Area, Carbon, and
Current Protections
Mangrove Carbon Stock, by Country
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Emissions from Mangrove Loss
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Marginal Cost of Preserving Mangrove
Carbon
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x 107
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HighLow Central
Range of 2011
ETS prices
$/to
n of
CO
2
CO2, million of tons
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Global and Regional Supply
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Global and Regional Supply
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
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$/to
n of
CO
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Global
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
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30Americas and Caribbean
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
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CO2, million of tons
$/to
n of
CO
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Africa and Middle East
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x 107
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CO2, million of tons
Asia and Oceania
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Governance Effectiveness
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Blue Carbon Supply and Governance
Effectiveness
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
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30$/t
on o
f C
O2
Global: With TAE
AllTop 50 Top 90
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x 107
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x 107
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CO2, million of tons
$/t
on o
f C
O2
Africa and Middle East
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x 107
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CO2, million of tons
Asia and Oceania
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Biodiversity:
Mangroves
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Biodiversity:
Other species in mangrove areas
1. Birds 2. Endangered Birds
3. Amphibians 4. Reptiles
Biodiversity Focused Targeting Approaches:
Estimated Additional Costs
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0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 107
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Carbon per ton
Diffe
rence in b
udget
($ m
illio
ns)
Mangrove
Biodiversity
Endgangered Birds
Uniform
Blue Carbon and Climate Policy
Frameworks International Agreements (UNFCCC)
Conversations forming but notable presence not yet established
REDD could provide a basic framework (some modifications needed)
Basic research needed to help gain a better understanding
Bilateral Agreements More flexible than UNFCCC (e.g. Norway-Indonesia arrangement includes not
only forests but also peatlands)
Regional/State Programs EU ETS accepts CDM/JI offset credits; remains generally skeptical towards land
use based offset (not included until after 2020)
RGGI allows afforestation credits but only in the member states
California AB 32
forests defined broadly enough to include mangroves, but credits must be in the US
bilateral agreements to developed offsets could include blue carbon (Chiapas, Mexico)
Similar to other programs, sea grasses and salt marshes a more distant possibility
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Further Research Needs
Basic data needs Emission profile after disturbance (all blue carbon systems)
Total area, geographic distribution (salt marshes)
Loss/disturbance rates (all blue carbon systems, especially salt marshes and
sea grasses)
Opportunity cost of preservation (non-agricultural uses)
Regional and local assessments Reduce data uncertainties
Better understand conservation, development, co-benefit options
Other ecosystem services Carbon preservation just one valuable ecosystem service
For example, mangroves are important to …
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Birds
Fish
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Other species
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People
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For more information:
Juha Siikamäki
Resources for the Future
Tel. 202-328-517
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Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from the Degradation
and Development of Coastal Ecosystems
Forthcoming RFF report