1

POWER AND THE PEOPLE A POLITICO POLL SERIES, SPONSORED BY QUALCOMM

DECEMBER 15, 2010 METHODOLOGY

On December 3-8, Penn Schoen Berland surveyed 1,000 people in the U.S. with a representative distribution of Americans and 225 Washington D.C. Elites. Margin of error is 3.1% and 6.53% respectively.

2

POLITICO Baseline

In general, do you believe that things in the country are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem

GP Rep GP Ind

Right direction 26 28 26 27 32 27 32 38 41 47 45 49 42 15 19

Wrong track 60 59 61 61 58 61 58 51 54 49 49 45 37 80 64

Don't know 15 13 13 11 11 12 10 11 5 4 6 6 21 5 17

In general, do you believe that the economy nationwide is headed in the right direction or is it off on the wrong track?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem

GP Rep GP Ind

Right direction 26 29 27 24 32 24 38 47 40 43 46 44 41 13 22

Wrong track 59 58 59 64 57 65 51 43 49 48 44 46 39 79 60

Don't know 16 14 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 9 10 10 20 8 18

How much do you feel the current economic downturn has affected you?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind

More than most Americans 23 22 25 23 24 27 4 4 4 5 8 6 25 22 20

Less than most Americans 24 28 27 27 26 24 73 75 73 74 64 74 23 28 21

About the same as others 49 46 46 47 48 47 22 20 23 20 28 20 46 48 53

Don’t know 4 3 3 3 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 2 6

Do you think the political system in Washington D.C. is broken?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind

Yes, it is broken 69 70 74 72 72 72 75 67 68 62 73 64 61 77 71

No, it is not broken 15 14 14 15 17 15 20 28 30 34 23 31 19 14 12

Don’t know 15 16 12 13 11 13 5 5 2 4 4 5 20 9 17

Which is closest to your views?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind

The Tea Party Movement is a fad - it will go away soon enough

28 29 26 28 28 26 70 70 67 70 60 68 10 41 17

I don’t know what the Tea Party Movement is well enough to say

30 25 33 30 34 31 7 9 9 6 12 11 39 21 25

The Tea Party Movement will become a viable third party in American politics

22 25 20 20 24 24 14 13 13 11 11 11 31 23 35

Don’t Know 20 21 20 22 17 19 9 8 10 12 13 10 20 16 24

3

Overall, how favorable are you towards the following people?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop October

Gen Pop September

Gen Pop August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites October

DC Elites Sept.

DC Elites August

DC Elites July

Very fav

Fav / Unfav /

DK Very fav

Fav / Unfav / DK

Very fav

Fav / Unfav / DK

Very fav

Fav / Unfav / DK

Very fav

Fav / Unfav / DK

Very fav

Fav / Unfav / DK

Very fav

Fav / Unfav /

DK VF

Fav / Unfav /

DK VF

Fav / Unfav /

DK VF

Fav / Unfav /

DK VF

Fav / Unfav /

DK VF

Fav / Unfav /

DK

Barack Obama 22 47/48/5 24 45/47/8 24 46/47/6 26 48/48/4 28 51/46/4 25 48/47/5 29 66/33/2 32 64/36/0 35 61/37/1 35 64/35/1 32 66/33/0 36 66/34/0

Hillary Clinton 22 55/38/7 22 53/40/8 21 52/39/9 20 51/42/6 21 53/41/7 20 49/45/6 29 74/25/0 33 68/31/0 34 68/30/3 33 72/28/1 32 68/32/0 34 74/25/1

George W. Bush 16 38/54/8 14 38/54/8 14 39/52/9 15 44/50/6 14 37/57/6 14 38/54/7 8 26/74/0 8 26/72/2 12 30/67/2 8 24/72/4 6 31/68/0 7 24/74/1

Sarah Palin 14 36/53/10 14 36/53/12 14 36/53/11 15 41/50/9 14 35/57/8 14 39/53/8 5 14/84/1 2 14/85/2 4 22/75/3 3 15/82/2 4 18/80/1 3 16/82/2

John McCain 11 41/47/12 11 43/46/10 12 44/46/11 13 47/44/10 11 41/50/10 13 43/48/10 5 34/65/0 7 40/59/1 11 39/58/3 8 41/57/1 6 42/57/1 6 39/60/1

Joe Biden 10 35/45/21 12 38/46/17 10 37/46/16 11 39/46/15 10 39/45/16 10 37/49/13 19 62/36/2 19 61/37/1 18 56/42/2 20 58/39/2 20 57/39/4 21 58/40/2

Mike Huckabee 10 32/30/37 11 33/33/34 11 35/29/36 14 37/28/36 11 33/31/36 11 36/29/34 5 27/64/10 3 29/66/5 6 30/56/14 5 32/59/10 6 33/54/13 3 26/63/13

Mitt Romney 8 29/33/38 5 26/36/37 8 31/35/35 12 34/32/34 7 29/33/37 9 30/35/34 8 29/61/10 5 34/60/6 11 35/56/10 6 34/57/8 5 33/56/11 4 32/60/8

Nancy Pelosi 7 24/50/25 6 24/52/24 7 24/52/24 7 26/48/26 7 25/50/25 5 23/52/25 10 40/58/2 13 42/56/1 12 40/56/3 12 42/53/5 12 44/52/4 12 45/52/3

Harry Reid 5 16/34/49 4 17/37/46 3 13/35/51 4 14/32/54 3 14/35/52 3 15/34/51 6 35/53/12 4 40/48/12 3 33/56/11 6 39/47/13 6 34/47/20 5 38/53/10

John Boehner 5 18/23/59 6 18/25/56 5 17/22/61 5 16/20/64 4 12/21/67 4 16/21/63 9 23/57/20 4 26/60/13 4 22/58/21 5 20/58/22 4 20/49/31 1 17/55/28

Haley Barbour 4 10/20/71 4 12/18/70 4 12/17/71 4 13/17/71 2 10/18/73 3 11/19/70 3 17/46/36 6 24/45/32 8 23/40/37 4 23/42/36 4 18/37/46 3 20/35/45

Mitch McConnell 3 13/24/63 3 13/26/60 3 14/26/60 5 16/21/63 3 12/25/63 2 13/23/64 5 18/60/21 2 20/58/22 4 23/50/27 2 19/58/23 4 21/50/28 2 21/53/27

Tim Pawlenty 3 11/18/71 3 14/20/67 4 12/17/71 5 16/15/70 3 11/17/72 3 12/18/69 5 23/31/46 2 24/33/42 4 21/36/43 4 21/39/39 6 26/26/48 2 17/34/50

U.S. Congress 3 19/67/14 2 21/63/16 4 23/65/13 5 25/61/14 4 24/66/9 5 25/64/11 1 19/78/2 0 25/74/1 0 22/75/2 1 28/70/2 2 31/68/0 3 29/69/1

Michael Steele 2 11/25/64 2 11/26/62 3 13/25/63 3 14/23/64 2 11/25/64 1 11/29/59 1 12/76/12 2 20/69/11 2 19/66/15 2 12/73/15 1 16/64/20 0 11/74/15

Tim Kaine 2 10/16/74 1 8/21/71 3 11/16/73 3 11/17/73 2 10/15/75 2 10/16/73 14 45/36/18 11 51/25/24 9 40/34/26 12 52/27/21 8 41/27/32 12 52/30/18

4

If Barack Obama runs for re-election in 2012, in general, are you more likely to vote for President Obama or for the Republican Party’s candidate for president?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop October

Gen Pop September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem

GP Rep GP Ind

The Republican Candidate 38 40 40 43 40 42 27 29 36 30 32 28 6 84 28

Barack Obama 37 37 39 35 38 37 57 58 52 55 50 56 73 6 29

Other 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 2 1 10

Don’t know 21 20 18 19 19 18 14 9 9 13 15 14 19 9 33

If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem

GP Rep

GP Ind

Barack Obama 48 46 50 45 50 48 74 73 67 71 70 73 82 13 47

Sarah Palin 33 33 35 37 33 36 16 13 21 16 17 17 8 71 23

Don’t know 18 20 15 18 17 16 10 14 12 13 13 10 10 16 30

If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem

GP Rep

GP Ind

Barack Obama 40 40 41 38 42 39 60 62 57 59 57 63 76 8 33

Mitt Romney 33 32 34 38 33 35 29 33 36 30 32 26 6 71 26

Don’t know 27 28 25 24 24 26 11 5 7 12 12 11 18 21 41

If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem

GP Rep

GP Ind

Barack Obama 39 39 41 40 42 39 60 65 55 59 52 60 73 7 35

Tim Pawlenty 22 21 21 26 23 21 23 20 26 21 22 19 5 50 14

Don’t know 38 40 38 34 35 40 17 15 19 19 26 22 22 43 51

If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites October

DC Elites September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem

GP Rep

GP Ind

Barack Obama 40 40 41 40 43 39 60 66 68 64 60 65 76 6 35

Mike Huckabee 34 34 35 38 35 35 29 24 22 25 27 23 7 74 25

Don’t know 26 26 23 22 22 25 11 10 10 11 14 12 17 21 40

If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop

October Gen Pop

September

Gen Pop

August

Gen Pop July

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites

October DC Elites

September

DC Elites

August

DC Elites July

GP Dem

GP Rep

GP Ind

Barack Obama 40 40 40 38 43 39 58 66 56 57 56 60 74 7 35

Haley Barbour 19 20 19 24 21 21 20 20 24 23 21 19 4 44 12

Don’t know 41 40 41 38 36 40 22 14 20 20 23 22 23 49 53

5

CURRENT EVENTS

Which of these best describes how closely you have been following each of these events / issues?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

Gen Pop October

Gen Pop September

Gen Pop August

DC Elites December

DC Elites November

DC Elites October

DC Elites September

DC Elites August GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

Very closely

Closely / Not

closely

State of the U.S. economy

36 78/17 41 82/15 44 80/17 48 82/16 N/A N/A 59 97/2 57 96/0 70 98/3 67 97/3 N/A N/A 38 79/17 40 86/12 30 70/23

Terrorist threats to the United States

25 66/30 28 70/26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 36 81/19 46 88/11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 26 65/31 31 75/21 19 57/37

Expiration of Bush tax cuts

23 58/35 24 55/40 24 53/40 23 55/41 18 47/47 48 84/16 43 84/16 37 78/21 40 79/20 31 68/31 21 60/35 31 66/31 17 48/41

The new U.S. Congress

18 52/42 25 60/35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 86/14 46 95/5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 20 56/39 24 59/37 11 43/48

The push to repeal the military’s ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy

18 50/44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 80/20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 22 55/39 19 52/45 12 41/48

WikiLeaks’ release of U.S. diplomatic secrets

14 45/48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 34 78/22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 13 47/45 20 48/47 9 39/48

The beginnings of the 2012 presidential campaign season

13 40/54 18 49/47 14 41/54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 19 53/47 25 65/34 17 57/43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 16 41/54 17 49/47 5 29/61

6

TOPIC INVESTIGATION – STATE OF THE UNION

Will you watch the president’s State of the Union address in January? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Yes 44 75 63 36 32 49 39

No 32 11 15 42 40 34 30

Don’t know 24 14 23 22 29 17 31

What should be the focus of President Obama’s State of the Union address? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Improving the economy and creating jobs 68 65 74 61 69 67 70

Reducing the deficit 13 19 11 19 11 14 13

Bipartisanship in Washington 4 10 2 5 4 5 2

The war on terrorism 3 2 3 5 2 4 2

Don’t know 11 4 10 10 14 10 13

Do you think President Obama will be able to use his State of the Union address to reclaim his ownership of the national agenda? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Yes 27 35 47 10 21 28 25

No 42 38 21 68 40 48 37

Don’t know 31 27 32 22 39 24 38

Do you expect the president’s State of the Union address to have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on your perception of President Obama? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Positive impact 30 36 56 11 22 32 29

Negative impact 17 12 5 33 15 18 17

No impact 35 38 24 43 38 36 34

Don’t know 17 14 15 12 25 14 20

7

TOPIC INVESTIGATION – THE NEW CONGRESS

Which issue should the new Congress tackle first?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

DC Elites December

DC Elites November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Work to reduce the deficit 35 36 50 46 39 29 35 34 35

Repeal health care reform 26 29 11 13 11 47 22 25 27

Pass another stimulus bill 18 14 20 17 26 12 17 22 15

Pass energy policy legislation 6 4 13 16 8 3 7 8 4

Don’t know 15 16 6 7 16 9 19 11 18

Now that Republicans have gained the majority in the House of Representatives, how effective will they be in implementing their agenda?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

DC Elites December

DC Elites November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Very effective 11 11 3 2 9 16 7 10 11

Somewhat effective 35 35 36 28 25 52 28 37 33

Not very effective 22 22 40 47 27 16 23 27 18

Not effective at all 11 12 15 21 18 3 11 13 10

Don’t know 21 20 4 2 20 13 30 13 29

Are you confident that Republicans in Congress will be effective leaders? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Yes 28 17 12 57 17 30 26

No 46 73 71 19 45 50 41

Don’t know 26 10 17 24 38 20 33

Which of these best describe what you hope to see from congressional Republicans in the next session of Congress? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Work together with President Obama and congressional Democrats

51 74 68 32 50 51 51

Work to block President Obama’s agenda 20 11 10 32 18 21 18

Work to implement the Republican agenda 12 13 6 26 6 15 10

Don’t know 17 2 16 10 26 13 21

8

Which of these best describe what you hope to see from President Obama in 2011? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Compromise with congressional Republicans

49 59 34 71 45 54 45

Focus on pushing the White House agenda 16 31 29 6 12 17 15

Block the congressional Republican agenda

11 5 17 4 10 12 9

Don’t know 24 4 20 19 34 17 31

With a divided government, do you think there will be progress over the next two years in solving the nation’s problems or will nothing get accomplished? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Nothing will be accomplished 44 55 39 41 51 46 42

There will be progress 30 30 33 35 23 34 27

Don’t know 26 15 28 24 27 21 31

Do you support or oppose the repeal of 'don’t ask, don’t tell' - the military’s current policy which bars openly gay or lesbian troops from serving? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Support the repeal 43 75 59 31 38 44 42

Oppose the repeal 30 14 18 44 28 34 26

Don’t know 27 11 23 26 34 22 32

How would you rate President Obama’s handling of the efforts to repeal ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

He is handling it poorly 34 42 23 52 28 39 29

He is handling it well 26 35 39 16 22 28 24

Don’t know 40 24 38 32 50 33 47

How would you rate Congressional Republicans’ handling of the efforts to repeal ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

They are handling it poorly 39 69 49 28 38 43 35

They are handling it well 17 12 10 30 11 21 12

Don’t know 45 19 41 42 51 36 52

9

TOPIC INVESTIGATION – CURRENT EVENTS

Do you think President Obama should follow his deficit-reduction commission’s recommendation to raise the retirement age for Social Security from 67 to 68? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Yes 28 70 29 28 28 33 24

No 51 20 49 56 50 49 54

Don’t know 20 9 22 16 22 19 22

Should Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, be prosecuted as a terrorist for publishing more than 250, 000 U.S. diplomatic cables? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Yes 48 49 51 59 34 49 47

No 22 36 20 17 29 29 15

Don’t know 30 15 29 24 37 21 38

TOPIC INVESTIGATION – 2012 POTUS ELECTION

Do you think President Obama will be re-elected in 2012?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

DC Elites December

DC Elites November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Yes 28 26 38 49 50 8 23 30 25

No 48 50 27 23 24 76 47 49 47

Don’t know 24 25 35 28 26 16 30 21 28

Do you think President Obama will face a Democratic primary challenger in 2012? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Yes 51 33 50 58 46 55 48

No 24 52 30 24 19 29 20

Don’t know 24 16 20 18 35 16 32

10

Who is most likely to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2012? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Sarah Palin 18 11 15 26 11 17 18

Mitt Romney 13 30 11 17 11 16 10

Mike Huckabee 9 6 9 12 7 9 9

Newt Gingrich 3 5 2 4 2 4 2

Ron Paul 2 1 3 2 2 2 2

Tim Pawlenty 1 3 2 2 1 2 1

Haley Barbour 1 5 0 1 1 1 1

Mitch Daniels 1 3 1 0 2 2 0

John Thune 1 1 1 1 1 2 0

Don’t know 51 34 56 34 63 45 57

How satisfied are you with the lineup of possible Republican presidential candidates thus far? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Very satisfied 10 5 8 17 5 14 6

Somewhat satisfied 22 19 10 43 15 23 21

Somewhat dissatisfied 17 23 14 14 23 18 16

Very dissatisfied 17 38 28 5 17 19 15

Don't know 34 15 39 21 40 25 41

Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Yes 23 11 8 47 17 26 21

No 64 86 85 39 68 65 64

Don’t know 12 4 7 15 15 9 15

Do you think Sarah Palin is a breath of fresh air or a negative influence in national politics?

Gen Pop December

Gen Pop November

DC Elites December

DC Elites November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female

Negative influence 50 50 79 77 75 20 53 50 50

Breath of fresh air 34 28 15 14 15 64 25 36 33

Don’t know 16 22 6 9 10 16 22 15 17