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Transcript of PowerPoint Presentation .MBS EMD LC sovereign EMD USD corporate EMD USD sovereign High yield...

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U.S. and Australian bank funding costsTerm deposit and policy rate1-year term deposit, $10,000

Term deposit held with banksAUD billions

Source: FactSet, ICAP Plc, Reserve Bank of Australia, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

*LIBOR is the London Interbank Offer Rate, BBSW is the Bank Bill Swap Rate and they represent the rate at which banks lend to each other. The OIS is the overnight

banks swap and is the rate at which central banks offer cash to the market. The spread between the bank funding rate and the OIS indicates how difficult it is for

banks to acquire funding. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

Guide to the Markets Australia. Data as of 31 December 2018.

Term deposit

Cash rate

30 Nov 2018:

2.20%31 Dec 2018:

1.50%

Oct 2018:

$642bn

3-month LIBOR and BBSW spread over OIS*, basis points

Australia (BBSW)

U.S. (LIBOR)

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep '15 Mar '16 Sep '16 Mar '17 Sep '17 Mar '18 Sep '18

5

61

Impact of a 1% rise in interest ratesAssumes a parallel shift in the yield curve and steady spreads

Source: Bloomberg Barclays, BofA/Merrill Lynch, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) Fixed income sensitivity sectors shown are provided by Barclays

and are represented by: Treasury Australia; Bloomberg AusBond Treasury indices; Investment-grade credit: Barclays Global Aggregate Corporates; High yield:

Barclays Global High Yield; EMD USD sovereign: Barclays Emerging Markets Sovereign; EMD USD corporate: Barclays Emerging Markets Corporate; EMD LC

sovereign: Barclays Emerging Markets Local Currency Government; Floating rate: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Floating Rates Notes; MBS: Bloomberg Barclays U.S.

Aggregate Securitized MBS. (Left) Global HY: BofAML Global High Yield; EMD ($): J.P Morgan EMBI Global. For illustrative purposes only. Change in bond price is

calculated using both duration and convexity. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

Guide to the Markets Australia. Data as of 31 December 2018.

Yield Return

Aggregates Duration 31 Dec 18 31 Dec 17 2018 4Q 18

Global 7.0 Yrs 2.03% 1.66% -1.20% 1.20%

Australia 5.2 2.36 2.53 4.54 2.24

U.S. 5.9 3.28 2.71 0.01 1.64

Japan 9.3 0.18 0.20 0.82 1.20

Germany 6.3 0.62 0.46 1.56 1.07

Sector

Floating rate 0.0 Yrs 4.26% 2.05% 0.92% -1.12%

MBS 4.7 3.39 2.91 0.99 2.08

Aus IG 7.1 3.56 3.63 5.34 2.75

Global IG 6.3 3.37 2.55 -3.57 -0.81

Global HY 4.3 7.56 6.29 -2.40 -3.48

EMD ($) 6.7 7.06 5.54 -4.61 -1.19

EMD (LCL) 5.1 6.46 6.14 3.18 2.93

EMD Corp 5.3 6.32 5.07 -1.65 -0.04

Price return

Total return

-2.3%

-1.2%

2.0%

-0.6%

3.1%

-3.1%

4.1%

-9.6%

-3.3%

0.1%

-4.2%

-5.7%

-6.1%

-4.4%

-7.2%

-4.6%

-6.4%

-0.1%

-12.1%

-5.4%

-1.8%

-6.4%

-15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6%

MBS

EMD LC sovereign

EMD USD corporate

EMD USD sovereign

High yield

Investment grade credit

Floating rate

10+ years

5-7 years

1-3 years

Treasury: Australia

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Number of policy rate changes by central banksCentral bank key policy ratesTarget rates

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, FactSet, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S. Federal Reserve; (Right) Bloomberg

Finance L.P.

*Covers the 10 largest developed market central banks by assets.

Guide to the Markets Australia. Data as of 31 December 2018.

Policy rate Deposit rate

RBA 1.50% 1.50%

U.S. Fed 2.50% 2.40%

ECB 0.00% -0.40%

BoJ -0.10% -0.10%

Developed market central banks easing or tightening policy*

Cuts

Hikes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

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62

Global investment-grade bondsOption-adjusted spreads, basis points

U.S. investment-grade leverage measuresLeverage* and interest coverage** ratio

Credit quality and durationU.S. aggregate investment grade bond index

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left and bottom right) Bloomberg Barclays, FactSet; (Left) BofA Merrill Lynch; (Top right) J.P. Morgan Securities.

*Leverage is net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). **Interest coverage is EBITDA over interest expense. Past performance

is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

Guide to the Markets Australia. Data as of 31 December 2018.

Interest coverageLeverageAverage 31 Dec 18

U.S. 159bps 153bps

Europe 130 152

Australia 129 122

Duration (years) % of BBB bonds in index

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

5

6

7

8

'89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17

6x

8x

10x

12x

14x

16x

0.8x

1.2x

1.6x

2.0x

2.4x

2.8x

3.2x

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

8

63

0bps

500bps

1000bps

1500bps

2000bps

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

'89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17

U.S. high yield spread and default rate

Earnings growthEBITDA, year-over-year change

U.S. high yield leverage measuresNet leverage* and interest coverage ratio**

Source: J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Default rates are defined as the par value percentage of the total market trading at or below 50% of par value and include any Chapter 11 filing, prepackaged filing or

missed interest payments. Spreads indicated are benchmark yield to worst less comparable maturity Treasury yields. Yield to worst is defined as the lowest potential

yield that can be received on a bond without the issue actually defaulting and reflects the possibility of the bond being called at an unfavourable time for the holder.

*Net leverage is net debt divided by adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). **Interest coverage ratio is EBITDA over interest

expense. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

Guide to the Markets Australia. Data as of 31 December 2018.

Asset classAverage since

1986Latest

HY spread (RHS) 570bps 567bps

HY default (LHS) 3.8% 1.8%

Net leverage

Interest coverage

ratio

Recession

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '183.0x

3.5x

4.0x

4.5x

5.0x

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4Q18 Ten-yr Ann.

25.3%

Global HY

7.1%

16.0%

EM Debt

6.2%

14.5%

EM Debt

1.8%

15.3%

Global HY

15.9%

5.1%

Aus IG

5.1%

12.1%

US Treas.

0.9%

5.4%

US Treas.

2.6%

10.9%

Global HY

11.5%

16.4%

Global IG

0.3%

14.8%

US Treas.

5.1%

13.4%

US Treas.

0.8%

10.1%

EM Debt

9.6%

3.5%

Aus Gov

3.5%

9.7%

US TIPS

-1.3%

2.8%

Aus Gov

2.8%

7.2%

EM Debt

7.3%

12.9%

US Treas.

-2.7%

13.3%

US TIPS

3.6%

10.9%

US TIPS

-1.4%

5.7%

Portfolio

5.6%

2.0%

Global HY

7.6%

7.4%

Global HY

-2.4%

2.3%

US TIPS

-0.4%

6.0%

Aus IG

6.0%

9.3%

Portfolio

-0.3%

12.8%

Global IG

3.1%

8.5%

Global IG

-3.6%

5.2%

US TIPS

4.7%

1.0%

Global IG

9.1%

7.1%

Global IG

-3.6%

2.2%

Portfolio

0.6%

5.7%

Portfolio

5.8%

6.4%

EM Debt

-8.3%

11.6%

Portfolio

6.2%

7.8%

Global HY

-2.1%

4.8%

Global IG

4.3%

0.8%

Portfolio

5.2%

7.0%

Portfolio

0.6%

2.1%

EM Debt

-0.7%

4.7%