PowerPoint Presentation2020/05/01  · Title PowerPoint Presentation Author Amanda Sutherland...

34
1 “ARM benefitted from commodity diversification as headline earnings from the platinum operations increased significantly. The platinum operational performance is expected to improve in the second half of the year.” Dr Patrice Motsepe, Executive Chairman

Transcript of PowerPoint Presentation2020/05/01  · Title PowerPoint Presentation Author Amanda Sutherland...

Page 1: PowerPoint Presentation2020/05/01  · Title PowerPoint Presentation Author Amanda Sutherland Created Date 2/28/2020 9:54:02 AM

1

“ARM benefitted from commodity

diversification as headline earnings from the

platinum operations increased significantly.

The platinum operational performance is

expected to improve in the second half of the

year.”

Dr Patrice Motsepe, Executive Chairman

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Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Throughout this presentation a range of financial and non-financial measures are used to assess the company’s

performance, including, but not limited to financial measures that are not defined under International Financial Reporting

Standards (IFRS). These adjusted financial measures are included for illustrative purposes and are the responsibility of

the Board of Directors. They should be considered in addition to, and not as a substitute for, or as superior to, measures

of financial performance, financial position or cash flows reported in accordance with IFRS.

Rounding of figures may result in minor computational discrepancies.

Forward looking statements

Certain statements in this report constitute forward looking statements that are neither reported financial results nor other

historical information. They include but are not limited to statements that are predictions of or indicate future earnings,

savings, synergies, events, trends, plans or objectives. Such forward looking statements may or may not take into

account and may or may not be affected by known and/or unknown risks, unpredictables and other important factors that

could cause the actual results, performance and/or achievements of the Company to be materially different from the

future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Such risks,

unpredictables and other important factors include among others: economic, business and political conditions in South

Africa; decreases in the market price of commodities; hazards associated with underground and surface mining; labour

disruptions; changes in government regulations, including environmental regulations; changes in exchange rates;

currency devaluations; inflation and other macro-economic factors; and the impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in South

Africa. These forward looking statements speak only as of the date of publication of these pages. The Company

undertakes no obligation to update publicly or release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events

or circumstances after the date of publication of these pages or to reflect the occurrence of unpredictable events.

2

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3

Results overviewExecutive Chairman:

Dr Patrice Motsepe

Khumani Iron Ore Mine

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Safety

4

We are committed to creating and maintaining a safe work environment for all our employees.

Regrettably, three of our colleagues were fatally injured at our operations in the period under review.

We extend our deepest condolences to the families, friends and colleagues of

Mr Malatji, Mr Tshwale and Mr Sandamela.

We continue to work relentlessly towards our target of zero harm.

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Salient features: Earnings

1H F2019: R2.2 billion

R2.2 billion

Headline earnings

17%

1H F2019: R2.5 billion

to

R2.0 billion

Adjusted headline earnings*

10%

1H F2019 : R4.2 billion

to

R4.6 billion

Segmental EBITDA

63%

1H F2019 : R1.3 billion**

to

R2.1 billion

Basic earnings

*Adjusted headline earnings exclude all re-measurement gains and losses for the period. The table included on slide 37 of this presentation

summarises the re-measurement gains and losses for the review period and the previous corresponding period.

** Basic earnings in 1H F2019 included an impairment of the Nkomati Mine assets of R892 million after tax.5

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Salient features: Dividends and

financial position

25%

1H F2019: R4.00 per share

to

R5.00 per share

Interim dividend

1H F2019: R1.75 billion

to R2.0 billion

Dividends received from Assmang

70%

31 December 2018: R1.5 billion

to

R2.5 billion

ARM Company cash balance

146%

31 December 2018: R1.2 billion

to

R2.9 billion

Net cash at 31 December 2019

6

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Strategy

7

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Safe, responsible and efficient operations

Safe operations

• Manage all health and safety risks,

with a focus on elimination of

injuries, fatalities and high-

potential incidents.

TARGET:

Zero harm across all operations.

Responsible production

• Engagement with all stakeholders.

• Transformation through local

procurement; employment, and

enterprise supplier development.

• Reduce carbon emissions and our

impact on water resources.

• Committed to climate change

initiatives.

TARGETS:

Improve the living conditions and

standards of living of the people

in our host communities.

Responsibly manage and mitigate

our environmental impact in

alignment with the principles of

the International Council on

Mining and Metals (ICMM).

Efficient operations

• Invest in efficiency-improvement

technologies.

• Explore improvements in plant

efficiencies and grades.

• Contain costs increases.

TARGET:

Maximise margins at each of the

operations.

8

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Capital allocation

9

INVEST IN

EXISTING BUSINESS

Allocation of funds

DEBT

REPAYMENT

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

DIVIDEND PAYMENTS

SHARE REPURCHASE AND/OR SPECIAL

DIVIDENDS

INVEST IN ORGANIC BUSINESS

GROWTH

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Dividends per share(cents)

10

* **

- -

250

400500

225

650

750

900

650

1 000

1 300

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 1H F2020

Interim dividend per share Final dividend per share

225

Sustained dividend growth.

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Focus on value enhancing growth

11

ARM is in a robust financial position which allows flexibility to pursue value-enhancing and integrated growth opportunities.

A dedicated management team is assessing both organic and acquisition growth opportunities.

Preferred commodities to strengthen our portfolio diversification include (but are not limited to) PGMs and base metals.

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12

Operational reviewChief Executive Officer:

Mike Schmidt

Two Rivers Platinum Mine

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Headline earnings/(loss)by division / operation

13

R million 1H F2020 1H F2019 % change

ARM Platinum 489 167 193

Two Rivers Mine 357 180 98

Modikwa Mine* 343 173 98

Nkomati Mine (211) (186) (13)

ARM Ferrous 1 848 2 127 (13)

Iron ore division 1 426 1 230 16

Manganese division 441 919 (52)

Chrome division - (4) -

Consolidation adjustment (19) (18) (6)

ARM Coal* (101) 65 (>100)

Goedgevonden Mine (115) (7) (>100)

PCB Operations 14 72 (81)

ARM Corporate and other* (81) (158) 49

Headline earnings 2 155 2 201 (2)

* Modikwa Mine, ARM Coal and ARM Corporate include re-measurement gains and losses. Refer to slide 37 of this presentation for a summary of these re-measurement gains and

losses.

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Diversified earnings

14

EBITDA split by commodity (%)

30%17% 19% 16%

37%

58%

50%37%

54%

46%

14%27%

38%29%

19%5%

3% 5% 4% 1%

(7%)

2% 2%

(3%) (4%)

(10%)

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 1H F2020

PGM Iron Ore Manganese Coal (GGV) Other

Improved earnings contribution from PGMs.

s

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EBITDA margin by commodity

15

42%

10%

47%

34%

10%

33%

34%

43%

43%

23%

0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

PGMs

Coal (GGV)

Iron Ore

Manganeseore

Manganesealloy

1H F2019 1H F2020

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ARM Ferrous

Load-out station at Black Rock Mine

16

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Iron ore

17

(100% basis) unit 1H F2020 1H F2019%

change

Export sales

volumes

000

tonnes6 189 7 246 (15)

Local sales

volumes

000

tonnes1 561 1 507 4

Export sales

lump:fines ratio% 56:44 58:42

Change in on-mine

unit production

costs

% 15 6

Capital expenditureR

million863 1 028 (16)

Sales volumes (million tonnes)

Salient features

• Sales volumes decreased by 11% to 7.8

million tonnes mainly due to logistical

challenges.

• Export sales volumes are expected to

recover in the second half of the

financial year.

• Production volumes increased by 7%.

• On-mine unit production cost increased

by 15% as more waste stripping tonnes

were expensed and less tons

capitalised in compliance with IFRIC 20.

10

12

14

16

18

20

F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020e F2021e F2022e

Export Local

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Salient features

Manganese ore

18

(100% basis) unit 1H F2020 1H F2019%

change

Export sales

volumes

000

tonnes1 729 1 531 13

Local sales

volumes

000

tonnes53 74 (28)

Change in on-

mine unit

production costs

% (3) 14

Capital

expenditureR million 1 188 950 25

Sales volumes (000 tonnes)

• Production volumes increased by 17% to

2.0 million tonnes as the Black Rock

Project progressed on schedule.

• Sales volumes increased by 11% to 1.8

million tonnes.

• Manganese ore prices declined sharply

in the latter part of 1H F2020.

• Black Rock Mine achieved a 3% decrease

in on-mine unit production costs.

• Both the Nchwaning and Gloria projects

are progressing to plan and 91% and

40% respectively of their approved

capital have been spent. 2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020e F2021e F2022e

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Salient features

Manganese alloys

19

100% basis unit 1H F2020 1H F2019%

change

Sales volumes: South

African operations

000

tonnes61 61 -

Sales volumes: Sakura000

tonnes110 100 10

Change in unit

production costs: Cato

Ridge Works

% (3) 11

Change in unit

production costs: Sakura% (18) 24

Sales volumes (000 tonnes)

• Manganese alloy prices remained

under pressure.

• Sales volumes from the SA operations

were flat.

• Sales volumes at Sakura increased by

10%.

• Unit production costs were 18% lower

at Sakura mainly due to lower

manganese ore prices.

• Management is considering the

installation of an on-site sinter plant to

improve unit cost performance. 0

100

200

300

400

500

F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020e F2021e F2022e

South African operations Sakura

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* External sales only

** Includes Sakura Ferroalloy salesIncrease

20Decrease

Attributable profit before tax variance analysis

(R million)Changes in on-mine unit production costs (%)

Changes in sales volumes (%) Changes in average realised US Dollar prices (%)

ARM Ferrous

2 783 2 612

(293)(134) (71)

241

86

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

1H F2019 ZAR:USD USDPrices

Volume Cashcosts

Non-cashcosts

1H F2020

(18%)

(3%)

(3%)

15%

(25%) (15%) (5%) 5% 15% 25%

Sakura

Manganese ore

Cato Ridge Works

Iron ore

4%

11%

(11%) (15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

Ironore*

Manganesealloys**

Manganeseore*

19%

(27%)

(13%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

Exportmanganese ore

($/t)

Manganesealloys($/t)**

Exportiron ore

($/t)

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ARM Platinum

Modikwa Platinum Mine

21

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PGMs (excluding Nkomati)

22

(100% basis) unit 1H F2020 1H F2019%

change

Production6E PGM

ounces294 011 332 675 (12)

Modikwa cash cost R/oz 6E 11 222 8 560 31

Two Rivers cash

costR/oz 6E 10 083 7 338 37

Capital expenditure R million 609 398 53

Production volumes (000 6E PGM ounces)

Salient features

• The Rand PGM basket price was 49%

higher than 1H F2019.

• Production volumes were impacted by

safety stoppages at Modikwa and

mineralogy challenges at Two Rivers.

• Volumes are expected to recover in the

second half of the financial year at

Modikwa.

• At Two Rivers additional milling

capacity has been approved to increase

volumes from F2022.

• Unit production costs are expected to

improve commensurate with volume

improvements.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020e F2021e F2022e

Two Rivers Modikwa

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Two Rivers volumes and costs

23

Factors driving the 22 772 6E PGM ounces decline

Factors affecting unit production cash costs

(R/PGM ounce)

Flotation challenges

62%Load-shedding

7%

Grade challenges

31%

7 338

10 083

1 209

734

802

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

1H F2019 Volumedecline

Inflation Stock buildup andother

1H F2020

37%

• Two Rivers experienced flotation

challenges in the concentrator plant in

July 2019.

• Consequently, PGM recovery was lower

with PGMs being deposited into spillage

containment dams.

• The pumping challenge was resolved

through changes to flotation reagents.

• Lower grades due to mining of split reef

accounted for 30% of decrease in

volumes.

• Continued load-shedding is expected to

impact production. Management is

prioritising energy management.

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Modikwa volumes and cost analysis

24

Factors driving the 15 892 6E PGM ounces decline:

Factors affecting unit production costs

(R/PGM ounce)

8 560

11 222

873

856

933

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

12 000

1H F2019 Volume decline Inflation Maintenanceand other

1H F2020

31%

• Modikwa experienced numerous safety

stoppages which negatively impacted

production volumes.

• Lower grade material was blended with

higher-grade fines to optimise the plant

capacity which resulted in grade decline

and lower production volumes.

• Continued load-shedding is expected to

impact production. Management is

prioritising energy management.

Load shedding

4%

Safety stoppages

49%

Mix of ore treated and

grade22%

Other25%

Page 25: PowerPoint Presentation2020/05/01  · Title PowerPoint Presentation Author Amanda Sutherland Created Date 2/28/2020 9:54:02 AM

Nickel (100% basis)

25

Production volumes (tonnes)

Salient features

• Production at Nkomati Mine will cease

from the end of September 2020 and the

mine will be placed on care and

maintenance.

• Engagement with affected employees,

communities and suppliers is

continuing.

• An assessment of the total closure and

rehabilitation costs for the operation is

in progress and will be completed by

end of March 2020.

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020e F2021e F2022e

Items affecting Nkomati 1H F2020 headline earnings:

• Provision for diesel tax rebate - R243 million

• Provision for restructuring costs - R84

million

• Inventory adjustment - R 96 million

• Penalty and treatment charges - R63 million

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ARM Platinum

26Increase Decrease

Attributable profit before tax variance analysis

(R million)(Excluding Nkomati)Changes in on-mine unit production costs (%)

Changes in average realised US Dollar prices (%)Revenue contribution per commodity (%)(1H F2019 comparative in the inner circle)

Nickel on a US Dollar C1 cash costs net of by-products basis and PGM on a Rand per

tonne milled.

8%

19%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Nickel

PGM: Two Rivers

PGM: Modikwa

Platinum 21%

Palladium 35%

Rhodium 25%

Nickel 12%

Copper 1%

Chrome 3%

Other 3%

9% 18%

58%

97%

(9%) (20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Copper($/lb)

Platinum($/oz)

Nickel($/lb)

Palladium($/oz)

Rhodium($/oz)

774

1 526 (416)

(430)(193)127

1 332

332

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1H F2019 ZAR:USD USD Prices Volume Cash costs Non cashcosts

Re-measurement

gains

1H F2020

27%

34%

16%

10%

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ARM Coal

Goedgevonden Coal Mine

27

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GGV and PCB

28

(100% basis) Unit1H

F2020

1H

F2019

%

change

Export sales volumes Mt 5.56 7.28 (24)

Domestic sales volumes Mt 4.32 3.20 35

GGV on-mine production

costsR/t 458 343 34

PCB on-mine production

costsR/t 507 395 28

Capital expenditure (GGV) Rm 534 635 (16)

Capital expenditure (PCB) Rm 1 193 1 431 (17)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020e F2021e F2022e

GGV PCB

• Earnings were negatively impacted by a

steep decline in seaborne coal prices, as

well as a reduction in saleable

production.

• Production was lower mainly due to

inclement weather which resulted in pit

flooding.

• Contracts were concluded at PCB with

Eskom to provide high quality coal to

assist in stabilising the provision of

electricity nationally.

• A re-measurement gain of R104 million

was recognised in ARM Coal.

Attributable production volumes (000 tonnes)

Salient features

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3 096 3 346 3 284

1 959 1 778 1 758

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 1HF2020

ARM Coal

29Increase Decrease

Post-restructuringBefore debt restructuring

Attributable profit before tax variance analysis

(R million)Changes in on-mine unit production costs (%)

Changes in sales volumes (%) ARM attributable debt to Glencore (R million)

28%

34%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Coal: PCB

Coal: GGV

35%

(24%) (30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Exportcoal

Domesticcoal

116

(54)(182)

(161)

21

103

49 -150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1H F2019 ZAR:USD USD Prices Volume Costs Re-measurement

gains

1H F2020

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FD: Abigail Mukhuba

Black Rock Manganese Ore Mine

Capital allocation

30

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Analysis of movements in net cash and cash equivalents (R million)*

31

Sources

of

funds

Debt and

interest

payments

Dividends

paidInvesting in

existing

business

* Cash and cash equivalents including overdrafts.

4 239 4 613

( 205) ( 492)

( 147)

(1 741) ( 78)

921

2 000

116

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

Balance1 July 2019

Cashgenerated by

operations

Dividendsreceived

Taxationpaid

Capitalexpenditure

Netborrowing

movements

Netfinancingincome

Dividendspaid to ARMshareholders

Other Balance at31 December

2019

Increase Decrease

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Net cash and debt

32

R million 31 December 2019 30 June 2019

Cash and cash equivalents * 4 893 4 632

Total borrowings (2 024) (2 031)

Long-term borrowings (1 536) (1 095)

Short-term borrowings (488) (936)

Net cash* 2 869 2 601

Total equity 31 620 29 703

Net cash to equity ratio 9.1% 8.8%

Add back: Partner loans 1 173 1 124

ARM Coal loans from Glencore 1 069 1 023

Modikwa loan from Anglo Platinum 104 101

Add back: ARM BBEE Trust loans (Nedbank; Harmony)** 301 368

Adjusted net cash 4 343 4 093

Attributable cash and cash equivalents at ARM Ferrous 3 107 3 053

*Excludes cash and cash equivalents at ARM Ferrous. After the reporting date Assmang declared a dividend of R1 750 million (ARM attributable).

** At 31 December 2019 only the Harmony loan was outstanding as the Nedbank loan was fully repaid during the period.

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Segmental capital expenditure*

R million

33

3 326

2 352 2 383 2 464

3 242 3 400 3 200

2 800

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

F2015a F2016a F2017a F2018a F2019a F2020e ** F2021e ** F2022e **

ARM Platinum ARM Ferrous ARM Coal ARM Copper

* Capital expenditure includes (i) deferred stripping at Nkomati and Khumani mines, (ii) Eskom sub-station as a finance lease at Nkomati Mine

(iii) financed fleet replacement and sustaining capital expenditure but excludes the Sakura Ferroalloys Project.

** The forecasted capital expenditure for F2020e to F2022e is an estimation based on approved projects and projects under consideration.

1H F2020: R1 573 million

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34

Thank you

Two Rivers Platinum Mine