Potential for LULUCF projects under JI Zoltan Somogyi* [email protected] Bernhard Schlamadinger...
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Transcript of Potential for LULUCF projects under JI Zoltan Somogyi* [email protected] Bernhard Schlamadinger...
![Page 1: Potential for LULUCF projects under JI Zoltan Somogyi* zoltan.somogyi@jrc.it Bernhard Schlamadinger bernhard.schlamadinger@joanneum.at UNFCCC Technical.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf821a28abf838c85ad6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Potential for LULUCF projects under JI
Zoltan Somogyi*
Bernhard Schlamadinger
UNFCCC Technical Workshop on Joint Implementation Bonn, 9-10 March 2006
* “The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission."
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LULUCF is more than AR:
• Afforestation (A)
• Reforestation (R)
• Deforestation (D)
• Revegetation (RV)
• Cropland Management (CM)
• Grazing Land Management (GM)
• Forest Management (FM)
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1. Some potential types of JI projects
CM:
Switching to no-till
management
Avoiding use
of fertilizers
…
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GM
Restoration of grasslands
Reducing CH4 emissions
from livestock
…
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timeCP-1
Emissions from till, fertilization (N2O)*, from livestock (CH4)*…
Reduction due to project activity
Projects to reduce emissions
* KP Annex A
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CO2 sequestered
time
“Sink” projects
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AR: converting marginal land
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Improved FM
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FM: Fire prevention / forest protection
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Avoiding Deforestation
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Avoiding “fast out” emissions
timeCP-1
CO2 fixed
Possible reduction due to project activity
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2. List of current LULUCF JI projects
•
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• Afforestation project / Romania– PCF
– 6 thousand ha - 3.08 million US$ -
1,6 Mt CO2 eq
• Chernobyl Reforestation / Ukraine– BCF
– 15 thousand ha - 0.44 Mt CO2e by 2012
– No project documents yet
2. List of current LULUCF JI projects
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The AR in Romania „seeks to rehabilitate degraded forests, and to improve soil fertility, soil stabilization, and ecological integrity“
Source: http://carbonfinance.org/
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„The PCF has signed a long-term Emission Reductions Purchase Agreement (ERPA) for the delivery of nearly 900,000 tonnes of tCO2e by the NFA to the PCF at an agreed price of US$ 3.60 per tCO2e”
Source: http://carbonfinance.org/
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In the Ukraine Project,
„the land will not be suitable for the production of crops, milk or meat for human consumption for the next 80-100 years“
Source: http://carbonfinance.org/
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The Chernobil Reforestation project would
- „also provide an important environmental service”,
- „help protect biodiversity”,
- „also provide social benefits” with
- „leakage very unlikely” &
- „reduced risk of non-permanence”
Source: http://carbonfinance.org/
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Potentials are - limited
• Annual CDM potential: – Max: 1% of A-I emissions = ~180 Gt CO2
– Currently contracted (till 2017) + additional projects: ~ 18 Mt CO2 = 0.1 % of A-I emissions
• Hypothetical AR JI projects (during CP-1):10 * 10 thousand ha * 5 tCO2/ha/yr = 0,5 Mt CO2/yr
• Hypothetical JI projects to avoid forest fire
100,000 ha * 50 tCO2/ha/yr = 5 Mt CO2/yr
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CO2 sequestered
timeCP-1 Further CPs?
3. Limits to potentials
“slow in
”
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Other biophysical factors
• shorter time is left than for CDM projects
• some FM actions may yield few ERUs
• growth rates are lower in temperate/boreal zones than in the tropics
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Further notes on AR
• large areas available
• demand for wood is likely to increase
• potential emissions from soil if grassland is converted
• fast growing species may yield earlier and more ERUs
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Other forestry issues
• some forestry project types are long-term by nature: investments today are the biomass fuels of tomorrow
• combined with energy projects?
• potentials exist for additional benefits
• potential conflicts in non-carbon issues (species selection, afforesting protected areas…)
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Risk of non-permanence
• Specific to some LULUCF projects
• The risk itself may rest:– tCERS and lCERs: with the investor – ERUs: with the host country, unless there is a
contractual rule that changes this
• May occur after CP-1
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Non-biophysical issues
• Unlike energy-type JI projects, some LULUCF JI projects may not earn the country a lower emission, and are not likely if, in the host country,
– activity not elected (all 3.4; due by the end of 2006)
– cap applies and removals are higher than cap (FM)
– Art 3.3 is a source
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• some FM actions may lead to leakage
• due to lacking sense of urgency, LULUCF has not been a priority
• no experience in JI rules
• AR only tested in CDM, with very few exceptions
Non-biophysical issues (ctd.)
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• First focus on likely project types: AR
• Bottom-up approach?
• Inquire with potential host countries to see which project types are contemplated?
4. Some suggestions to the JISC
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4. Some suggestions to the JISC
• Consider allowing approved CDM AR meths
• Consider amending the small-scale methodology for CDM AR projects
• Overlap with the CDM WG AR?
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