Physics, Politics Physics, Politics and Pseudoscienceand Pseudoscience

Safeguarding Science Safeguarding Science from Political Skepticismfrom Political Skepticism

Courtney BonneyCourtney Bonney1000 ft

v = ?

Why Physics and Politics? Why Physics and Politics? Pseudo-what?Pseudo-what?

• Historically, scientists often pursued science for religious reasons

• Pseudoscience leads to the separation of science from religion.– Other possible demarcations:

• Science and Art • Science and Politics

• Now, more than ever before, science and politics are merging

Normal Vs. RevolutionaryNormal Vs. RevolutionaryScientificEndeavors

Normal Science

RevolutionaryScience

ProblemSolving

Within theAccepted Paradigm

Leads toParadigm

Shift

Solves“Normal Science”Anomalies

http://www.possest.de/sascha_is/learning_about/the_limitation_of.html

A New Demarcation A New Demarcation Science and PoliticsScience and Politics

J. R. RavetzJ. R. Ravetz

Silvio FuntowiczSilvio Funtowicz

Decision vs. UncertaintyDecision vs. Uncertainty

““Army of Army of

TechnicianTechnician

s”s”

““InnovativInnovative e

GuardiaGuardia

ns”ns”

““High StakesHigh Stakes

Problem Problem Solvers”Solvers”Post-

Normal Science

Professional Consultancy

Applied Science

A Novel View on ApproachA Novel View on ApproachWhere does Science and Policy Meet?Where does Science and Policy Meet?

RevolutionarRevolutionary y

ScienceScience

Normal Normal

ScienceScience

Applied Science

Professional Consultancy

Post-normal Science

Three Case StudiesThree Case Studies

The SSCYucca

Mountain Global ??? Change

“Every morning I woke up askingmyself what I could learn from this

experience; on most days the answer

was nothing.”

-John Marburger- science advisor to the president

Applied ScienceApplied ScienceThe Superconducting Super ColliderThe Superconducting Super Collider

• Goal of the SSC– “To investigate the basic nature of matter

without the expectation of any near-term results.”

– Observe the Higgs Boson• Validate the “Standard Model”• Determine it’s mass ~114.4 GeV/c2 – 153 GeV/c2

• Who Benefits?– U.S. becomes a leader in high energy physics– 2,200 high energy physicists (3% of physics

researchers)– 600 graduate students (0.6% of science Ph.D

students)– Technologies

• What went wrong?– Miscommunication

• “There is a high risk that the SSC will experience cost increases” –DOE Budgetary Report (1998)-

– Cost Escalation• The Energy Saver – 64% above initial estimate• Fermi Lab’s Tevatron 1 – 122% above initial

estimate• Isabelle Accelerator at Brookhaven – Abandoned• Trevatron II – Minor cost escalation• Stanford Linear Collider – Minor cost escalation• Large Hadron Collider (LHC) – Unknown

– Lack of Support• Public – Lack of science education• Political –High turnover of elected officials• Scientific – Push for international collaboration

Big Science Difficult to

differentiate between normal and revolutionary

Quasi-industrial forms of research are almost always a type of normal science

Low Syst. Uncertainty

Needs to be predictable

Medium Dec. Stakes Important to the

advancement of the standard model

unimportant to political stability

Professional ConsultancyProfessional ConsultancyThe Nuclear Repository at Yucca MountainThe Nuclear Repository at Yucca Mountain

• NIMBY – Not In My Backyard

• 1982 Nuclear Waste Policy Act (NWPA): Creates Three Possible Sites– Deaf Smith Salt Mine, Texas– Basalt Site, Washington– Yucca Mountain (Volcanic Tuff),

Nevada

• 1987 NWP Amendments Act (NWPAA)– Limits selection site to “Yucca

Mountain unless…site found unsuitable.”

• DOI employee, Joseph Hevesi, charged with falsifying documents

• Difficulties–Reliability of scientific fact–Uncertainty in modeling–Extension of final date from 1998 – 2017–Crowding repositories across the country

“The endless merry-go-round of deciding upon a final resting place

for nuclear waste has been studied for more than two decades, has cost

taxpayers more than $9 billion and

has actually been solved.”

-James Finch- 19 September 2006

Medium Decision Stakes

The United States, in order to meet it’s policy objectives of “fulfilling the federal government’s moral and legal responsibility for stewardship of waste” must follow through.

Med. High Syst. Uncert.

A consensus has been reached for nuclear waste disposal; bury it deep underground, but uncertainties still exist over the location of such a repository and over the authority of the scientists making predictions about the proposed site.

Socially Controversial Strong scientifically based results will be

needed to counter social doubts about the project.

“Scientists as a class believe that their scientific reputation

is a proof that they are also experts in political reasoning.”

-James Frank to Leo Szilard-21 May 1961

Post-Normal SciencePost-Normal ScienceGlobal Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Change

• Post-normal science is not…– Pseudoscience

• Post-normal Science is…– Falsifiable

• The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists– Raised the stakes by calling Global Climate Change

the 2nd Nuclear Age.

• New ideas in Global Climate Change– New Proof: Change in length of day– Aggressive “big science” technologies– Aggressive political atmosphere

Low Decision Stakes

The United States, has historically placed global climate change on the backburner even though it has the highest number of climate research laboratories.

High Syst. Uncert.Atmospheric

modeling has been known to be highly unpredictable.

Junk Scientists, inspired by corporate interest oppose.

Rising Stakes

As the U.K. and other Kyoto Protocol signatories place pressure on the U.S. the weight of Global Climate Change decisions will increase significantly

Why Question Scientific Why Question Scientific Authority?Authority?

• Knowledge is tied to power.– How does knowledge circulate and function

within political entities?

• Knowledge is non-neutral.– Can political entities affect the outcomes of

scientific studies?

• Knowledge is not universal.– If knowledge is tied to the context in which

it is created (the case) and applied ( the approach), can we make comparisons?

Boundary OrganizationsBoundary Organizations

Example: Office of Technology Assessmenthttp://www.wws.princeton.edu/ota/

• Addressed questions of scientific and political authority

• Decreased politicians ability to influence scientific studies.

• Encouraged circulation of technological knowledge

• Opened up a dialog

• Global Change Research and NASA’s Earth Observing System, OTA (Nov 1993)

The Legacy of the OTAThe Legacy of the OTA