OTP Group investor presentation...

14
László Bencsik Chief Financial and Strategic Officer, OTP Bank Plc OTP Group Investor Presentation OTP Group has maintained strong profitability, capital adequacy and liquidity Moscow, 17 March 2011

Transcript of OTP Group investor presentation...

Page 1: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

László BencsikChief Financial and Strategic Officer, OTP Bank Plc

OTP Group

Investor Presentation

OTP Group has maintained strong profitability, capital adequacy and liquidity

Moscow, 17 March 2011

Page 2: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million customers in 9 countries across the CEE Region

Major Group Members in Europe

Number of Branches

Total Assets

Headcount

7%

12%

Montenegro

2%

Serbia

1%

Slovakia

4%Croatia

5%Romania

4%Russia

Ukraine 7%

Bulgaria

Hungary57%

Total Assets: EUR 35.0 billion*

Montenegro

33

Serbia

55Slovakia

76Croatia105

Romania 106

Russia155

Ukraine

189Bulgaria

387

Hungary

380

Total number of branches: 1,486 Total headcount: 25,009**

19%

17%

Other

4%

Montenegro

2%

Serbia

3%

Slovakia

2%Croatia

4%Romania 4%

Russia

Ukraine12%

Bulgaria

Hungary32%

OTP Banka Slovensko

OTP banka Hrvatska

OTP banka Srbija Serbia DSK Bank Bulgaria

OTP Bank Romania

OTP Bank JSCUkraine

CKB Montenegro

OTP Bank Russia

* Assuming EURHUF rate at 278.75 (31 December 2010)** Excluding selling agents employed at OTP Russia

2

Gross Loans

Customer Deposits

6%

40%

Car-financing

5%

Corporate loans

31%

SME loansConsumer loans

18%

Mortgage loans

8%

19%25%

SME deposit

Retail term deposit

49%

Retail sight deposit

Corporate

Total Deposits: EUR 20.8 billion*

Total Loans: EUR 26.7 billion*

Page 3: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

OTP offers a unique investment opportunity for acce ssing the CEE banking sector through a well diversified and transparent player with highly liqu id stock

* State Enterprises, Foreign individuals and International Development Institutions (including EBRD).** in the last half year (end date: 21/02/2011) on the primary stock exchange

(Q-o-Q change)

9%Rahimkulov Family

47%

Lazard AssetManagement

Other*

3%

TreasuryShares

2%

Employees & Senior Officer

2%Domestic Individual7%

Domestic Institutional

8%

MOL (Hungarian Oil & Gas Company)

9%

6%

Groupama Group (France)

8%(0%)

(0%)

(+1%)

(-1%)

(-4%)

(-2%)

(0%)

(0%)

(0%)

OTP Group’s Capabilities

Key features

Total number of ordinary shares: 280,000,010, each having a nominal value of HUF 100 and representing the same rights

Diversified ownership structure without strategic investors

No state involvement, the Golden Share was abolished in 2007

The most important individual stakeholders: Groupama Group, MOL and the Rahimkulov family, all below 10% stake

Ownership structure of OTP Bank, as on 31 December 2010

11142124

3137

ErstePKOOTP RaiffeisenKomercniPekao

Other Foreign Institutions

Avg. daily turn-over to current market cap.

0.64% 0.24% 0.17% 0.20% 0.21% 0.13%

Average daily turnover in EUR million

OTP is the most liquid stock in a peer group comparison in termsof average daily turnover**

Best Bank In CEE 2008Best Bank In Hungary 2008, 2009

Retail Loan Product And Direct Banking

Services Of The Year In 2008

Bank of the Year 2009;

Best Bank in Crisis Management 2009

Best Bank in Hungaryin 2008, 2009 and 2010

Best Private Bank

in Central & Eastern

Europe, 2010

Bank of the Year in Hungary 2009

3

Page 4: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

CAGR24%

ROE* %Consolidated Net Profits (HUF bn)

Strong and resilient profitability

steadily improving PAT until ’08;average ROE twice as high as the industrial average and almost matching it during the crisis

Outstanding capital strength

consolidated CAR at 17.5%; Tier1 at 14%; Bank-only HAR CAR at 18.1%; all major indicators are better than for regional peers without any external capital enhancement; 2nd best results on the CEBS stress test

Strong liquidity position

gross operating liquidity exceeds EUR 5.0 billion equivalent – 2.5 times as high as all outstanding external FX obligations until 2015

After many years of high growth and high profitabil ity before the crisis, OTP has proved to be successful during the crisis demonstrating sustaina ble earning capacity over the business cycle

151

219209187

158132

83594939

1529

10

162

118

09080706050403020100

Tangible equity/tangible assets ratesin international comparison***

OTP Group’s capital adequacy ratios in regional comparison***

14.0%9.7% 10.2% 9.7%

Tier1

Tier2

Unicredit

13.0%

3.3%

Erste

13.6%

3.4%

Raiffeisen

13.6%

3.9%

OTP

17.5%

3.5%

4Q10 4Q10 2Q10 3Q104Q103Q10 3Q10 4Q10 3Q104Q10

4.1%4.2%4.3%5.0%7.1%

11.0%

Uni-credit

Intesa SP

ErsteKBCRaiffe-isen

OTP

***Source: Bloomberg, OTP **** Bonds issued by the National Bank of Hungary + government bonds + liquid asset surplus within 1 month

* Calculated from the Group’s adjusted net profit, excluding one-timers as the result of the sale of OTP Garancia in 2008 and goodwill write-offs in 2008 and 2010 as well as the result of the strategic open FX position between 2007 and 2009, consolidated dividends and net cash transfers, and special bank tax in 2010. ** Average between 2Q 2003 - 2007

432 1252510

500

1,000

1,500

2013-2015

610

264221

2012

311

35

25

2011

1,278

12

834

Bond

Bilateral Loan

Covered BondGroup level FX maturities (EUR mn)

2,852

2,166

Repoable bonds (mortg. & muni)

Primary****Total

5,018

Total liquidity breakdown (31 January 2011, equivalent in EUR million)

15.4

9.4

13.4

29.8

1.22.4

2000-2008�aver

age

Comm. Bank�avera

ge**

2010

12.9

2009

Banking taxGoodwill write-off

4

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30% average ROE pre-crisis and 13%* during the cris is due to strong revenue margins, strict cost control and a relatively stress-resilient loan book

ROE*

Net Interest Margin

Risk Cost Rate

Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)*****

Total Assetsin HUF billion

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5.03% 5.23% 5.36% 5.70% 6.84% 6.34% 5.81% 5.64% 5.79% 6.17%

0.89% 0.81% 0.82% 0.64% 0.70% 0.95% 0.62% 0.82% 1.69% 3.57%

- 16.6% 17.1% 13.3% 13.5% 12.9% 11.7% 13.4% 15.4% 17.2%

2,053 2,290 2,717 3,461 4,162 5,216 7,097 8,462 9,368 9,775

31.6% 32.6% 30.3% 31.1% 35.3% 32.3% 27.9% 24.7% 22.5% 13.4%

Average

CAGR

29.8%

5.75%

0.88%

20.9%

14.2%

* Calculated from the Group’s adjusted after tax profit, excluding one-timers as the result of the sale of OTP Garancia and goodwill write-offs in 2008 and 2010, the special bank tax in 2010, the result of the strategic open FX position in 2007-2009 and consolidated dividends and net cash transfers. ** Adjusted for one-off revenue and risk cost items in 2009 and 2010 *** Hypothetical calculation: with 8% CAR both in 2009 and 2010, ROE would be 28.1% - without the effect of the yield of excess capital. **** Insurance premiums and insurance expenses are netted and shown on other non interest income line ***** CAR: consolidated, under Hungarian Accounting Standards until 2004, from 2005 under IFRS Definitions.

2010

6.16%**

12.9%

8.0%***

28.1%***

2010

3.77%**

17.5%

9,781

5

Total Revenue Margin 7.60% 7.88% 8.24% 8.55% 9.49% 9.28% 8.03% 8.09% 8.22% 7.93%** 8.09%**

8.38%

Costs / Average Assets Ratio****

4.88% 4.81% 4.96% 4.87% 4.98% 4.59% 4.01% 4.26% 4.08% 3.65% 3.62%

4.60%

Continuous operational efficiency improvement

Focusing on the „high margin content” retail business as well as on the underpenetrated, fast growing CEE markets secured continuously high Net Interest- and Total Revenue Margin for the Group

Page 6: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

Full-year 2010 consolidated adjusted profit reached HUF 162 billion, representing a yearly growth of 7%, the accounting profit declined by 22%, mainly a s a consequence of the Hungarian bank tax

6

151

219

29162

Goodwill writedown

Bank tax

2010

118

15

20092008

-22%

-31% +7%

After tax profit (consolidated, adjusted 1)(in HUF billion)

ROE, adjusted 1

(%)

9.4

13.4

22.5

2.4 Goodwill writedown

Bank tax

2010

12.9

1.2

20092008

1After-tax profit without one-off items (result of the strategic open position, goodwill impairment, consolidated dividends, result on the sale of OTP Garancia and special tax on financial institutions).2 Without one-off items (Upper Tier2 buyback, FX-swap revaluation, revaluation of FX provisions at OTP Core, FX-result offsetting the revaluation of FX-provisions at OTP Core and FX-gain related to FX-hedging of the provisions of some FX-loans of OJSC Ukraine).

Financial highlights of OTP Group(consolidated, IFRS)

2008 2009 2010

Operating profit (adj.) in HUF billion

369 409 436

Total income margin (adj.2) 8.22% 7.93% 8.09%

Net interest margin (adj.2) 5.79% 6.17% 6.16%

Operating cost / avg. assets 4.08% 3.65% 3.62%

Risk cost rate (adj.2) 1.69% 3.57% 3.77%

DPD90+ ratio (%) 4.5% 9.8% 13.7%

Change of DPD90+ ratio (y-o-y, %-point)

0.9% 5.3% 3.9%

DPD90+ coverage (%) 85.8% 73.6% 74.4%

Change of DPD90+ coverage (y-o-y, %-pont)

0.8% -12.2% 0.8%

Loan volume change (y-o-y) 15% -3% -0,3%

After tax profit, accounting

ROE calculated from accounting profit

Page 7: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

Capital adequacy ratios of both OTP Group (consolid ated) and OTP Bank (unconsolidated) are above regulatory minimum and remained outstandi ngly high in international comparison

*Source: Bloomberg, OTP

Capital Adequacy Ratio – OTP Bank unconsolidated (HA R)Capital Adequacy Ratio – OTP Group consolidated (IFR S)

OTP Group’s capital adequacy ratio in international comparison*

3.5%

3.9% 3.3% 3.6%

3.9%3.4%

Tier1

Tier2

KBC

16.5%

12.6%

Intesa SP

12.5%

8.9%

Unicredit

13.0%

9.7%

Raiffeisen

13.6%

9.7%

Erste

13.6%

10.2%

OTP

17.5%

14.0%

4Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 104Q 10

15.4%17.5%17.2%

2010

14.0%

2009

13.7%

2008

11.3%

2007

13.4%

8.3%

+2.0%p

+0.3%p+1.8%p 12.0%

18.1%16.2%

2010

15.4%

2009

13.1%

2008

9.0%

2007

11.0%

7.0%

+1.1%p

+1.9%p

+4.2%p

Tier1

Tier2

Tier1

Tier2

Amount of capital received from the state*(in EUR billion)

7.0

2.01.2

0.0

KBCRaiffeisenErsteOTP

7

Page 8: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

CEBS stress test results of OTP Group are sound and well above the expected 6% level.Under the most adverse scenario OTP’s Tier1 ratio i s the 2 nd best in Europe

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The EU-wide stress testing exercise of financial institutions, coordinated by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) has been carried out by 91 banks from 20 EU Member States. Among others OTP Bank Plc. has represented Hungary in the test.

Based on the parameters defined by ECB and CEBS, under the most adverse scenario OTP Group’s Tier1 ratio would stand at 16.2% by the end of 2011, which is more than four times the mandatory minimum level of 4% and which was the 2nd best in international comparison.

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6%*

* 6% threshold used exclusively for the purpose of this stress test exercise.

Tier1 ratios under the most adverse scenario (2011)

OTP Group, 4Q 2010 actualCAR: 17.5%Tier1: 14.0%

8

Page 9: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

Capital adequacy ratios („CAR”)(according to local regulations)

Min. CAR 2008 2009 3Q10 4Q10

OTP Group (IFRS) 8% 15.4% 17.2% 18.0% 17.5%

Hungary 8% 12.0% 16.2% 17.8% 18.1%

Russia 11% 17.4% 13.3% 16.7% 17.0%

Ukraine 10% 10.3% 17.8% 20.0% 22.1%

Bulgaria 12% 18.0% 21.9% 25.4% 23.7%

Romania 10% 14.0% 14.3% 11.8% 14.0%

Serbia 12% 32.9% 27.1% 21.4% 16.4%

Croatia 10% 12.3% 13.4% 14.2% 14.2%

Slovakia 8% 10.5% 10.7% 11.0% 11.1%

Montenegro 10% 12.1% 13.4% 11.8% 14.1%

Stable capital adequacy across the Group, unconsoli dated CAR ratios above regulatory minimum

1

2

1

2

3

In order to secure the safe operation of the bank, at the end ofJune 2010 OTP Bank injected EUR 35 million capital into its Montenegrin subsidiary.

3

On 16 November 2010 the statutory capital of OTP Bank Romania was increased in the amount of RON 80 million(~EUR 18.7 million).

Capital transactions within OTP Group in 2010

On 30 September 2010 OTP Bank Croatia paid a dividend to OTP Bank (Hungary), the mother company in the amount of HRK 200 million (~EUR 27.4 million).

9

Page 10: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

Since 2008, consolidated net loan-to-deposit ratio follows a downward trajectory as a result of a 5% annual contraction in net loans and unbroke n growth in deposits

10

Net Loan-to-Deposit Ratio*(%, consolidated)

Net Loans

CAGR of Consolidated Net Loans, Deposits andRetail Bonds*(2008-2010)

* In order to adjust for changes in the exchange rate, 2008 and 2009 year end volumes are translated to HUF by using end 2010 exchange rates of the HUF. Consolidated deposits include retail bonds sold in Hungary between 2007 and 2010, and are adjusted for the one off deposit withdrawal of OTP Fund Management at end 2010 (the letter volumes were deposited again in January 2011).

108%114%

136%

201020092008

-29%p

Deposits

and Retail Bonds 7%

-5%

Page 11: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

Continuous internal FX liquidity generation by the business lines since the beginning of the crisis, the newly generated average monthly FX liquidity ex ceeded EUR 90 million in the last 10 month

Cumulated internal FX liquidity generation (from 29/12/2007, in HUF billion)

0

300

600

900

1200

Jan

-09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

Nov

-09

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

Nov

-10

Jan

-11

Sources of the intra-group FX liquidity generation:

�Retail FX lending in Hungary and in the Ukraine was stopped, the repayments from the outstanding FX loan books are continuously generating FX liquidity

�The corporate loan portfolio does not need additional FX liquidity, new disbursements and repayments are balanced

�From May 2010, the pace of FX liquidity generation decelerated, the reason behind is the group-wide re-pricing of FX deposits

Average monthlyliquidity generation

+ EUR 186 million

+ EUR 94 million

11

Page 12: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

Since the beginning of the crisis, external redempt ions of OTP Group have been covered by intra-group generated liquidity instead of new whol esale issuances

12

Gross Liquidity Buffer*(EUR million equivalent)

Issuances

900*

420116

1.600

Gross operating liquidity is 2.5 times as high as all outstanding external FX obligations until 2015

* Preliminary plans, mortgage bond issuances are planned both in EUR and CHF terms.

2011.01.31

5.018

2009

6.006

2008

2.855

Wholesale Funding Transactions at OTP Parent Level(in EUR million, equivalent)

Repayments

2015F

139

2014F

372

2013F

23

2012F

285

2011F

1.254

2010

2.120

2009

1.516

2008

477

Lower Tier2 Capital

Syndicated Loans

Mortgage Bonds (EUR)

Senior Notes

Page 13: OTP Group investor presentation 20110317data.cbonds.info/organisations/1133/OTP-Group_investor-presentatio… · OTP Group is offering universal banking services to more than 12 million

1313

Last updated: 30/12/2010Country ratings: long term foreign currency government bond ratings, Bank ratings: long term foreign currency deposit ratings Abbreviations: BG - Bulgaria, CR - Croatia, HU - Hungary, MN - Montenegro, RO - Romania, RU - Russia, SRB - Serbia, SK - Slovakia, UA - Ukraine

+ positive- negative0 stable

(rating outlook)Despite strong profitability, capital and liquidity position, rating map of countries and subsidiaries in OTP Universe suggest the strong sovereign ceiling effect

Sovereign and OTP Bank rating

LATEST RATING NEWS

Fitch downgraded OTP Bank 's Support Rating to '3' from '2‘ and affirmed the Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of OJSC OTP Bank at 'BB' with a Negative Outlook. (30 December 2010)Fitch downgraded Hungary 's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BBB-’from 'BBB' and its Long-term local currency IDR to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'. The Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs remained negative. (23 December 2010)S&P lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of Croatia to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The outlook is negative. (21 December 2010)Moody's Investors Service downgraded the foreign currency deposit ratings of OTP Bank and OTP Mortgage Bank to 'Baa3/Prime-3' from 'Baa1/Prime-2‘. (7 December 2010)Moody's Investors Service downgraded Hungary 's foreign- and local-currency government bond ratings by two notches to Baa3 from Baa1. (6 December 2010)Fitch Ratings has revised Serbia 's Outlooks to Stable from Negative. Its ratings have been affirmed at 'BB-' (11 November 2010)S&P affirmed its ratings on Hungary 'BBB-/A-3', the outlook stays negative on concerns about deficit and medium-term growth. (03 November 2010)Moody's changed the outlook on Ukraine's 'B2' government bond ratings to stable from negative and also changed to stable from negative the outlooks on Ukraine 's 'B1' foreign currency bond ceiling and its 'B3' foreign currency deposit ceiling. (11 October 2010)Fitch affirmed Russia 's long-term foreign and local currency IDRs at 'BBB'. The outlooks for the long-term IDRs have been revised to positive from stable. (8 September 2010)After having placed Ukraine’s sovereign credit ratings on CreditWatch with positive implications on 22 July 2010, S&P raised its long-term sovereign foreign and local currency ratings onUkraine by one notch to 'B+' from 'B' and to 'BB-' from 'B+', respectively. Furthermore, the 'B' short-term local and foreign currency ratings were affirmed. The outlook is stable. (29 July 2010)

Aaa AAA AAAAa1 AA+ AA+Aa2 AA AAAa3 AA- AA-A1 SK(0) A+ SK(0) A+ SK(0)A2 A AA3 A- A-

Baa1 RU(0) BBB+ BBB+

Baa2 BBB RU(0), BG(0) BBB RU(+)

Baa3BG(+), CR(0), RO(0), HU(-)

BBB- HU(-), CR(-) BBB-HU(-), BG(-), CR(-)

Ba1 BB+ RO(0) BB+ RO(0)

Ba2 BB BB

Ba3 MN(-) BB- SRB(0) BB- SRB(0)B1 B+ B+B2 UA(0) B BB3 B- B-

UA(0)

Caa1 CCC+

UA(0)

CCC+

Moody’s Standard & Poor’s Fitch

OTP Bank (Hungary)OTP Mortgage Bank (HU)OTP Banka Slovensko (SK)DSK Bank (Bulgaria)OAO OTP Bank (Russia)OTP Bank JSC (Ukraine)

Baa3 (-)Baa3 (-)Baa3 (-)Baa3 (-)Ba1 (-)B3 (0)

BB+ (0)BB+ (0)

BB (-)

Moody’s S&P Fitch

MN(-)

6,8

6

7,17,2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

OTP Moody's OTP S&P Sov Moody's Sov S&P S&P

AA-A+AA-BBB+BBBBBB-BB+BB

Moody's

Aa3A1A2A3

Baa1Baa2Baa3

Ba1Ba2

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14

Investor Relations

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Fax: + 36 1 473 5951

E-mail: [email protected]

www.otpbank.hu

Forward looking statementsThis presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, and businesses of OTP Bank. These statements and forecasts involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors which could cause actual results or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward looking statements and forecasts. The statements have been made with reference to forecast price changes, economic conditions and the current regulatory environment. Nothing in this announcement should be construed as a guaranteed profit forecast.