On the Student s’ Academic Success Facet of the Strategic Positioning of a College of...

Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COABE, CSUN 2013 1

On the Student s’ Academic Success Facet of the Strategic Positioning of a College of

Business

Ardavan Asef-Vaziri

Systems and Operations Management, COBAE, CSUN


Freshmen Regional International

Transfers Regional International

Network of Value Added and Non-Value Added Activities

GraduateDrop-offs

HumanResources

CapitalResources

Value SystemInformation Infrastructure

CSUN Transformation Process

Network of Value Added and Non-Value Added Activities

GraduateDrop-offs

Freshmen Regional International

Transfers Regional International Human

ResourcesCapital

Resources

Value SystemInformation Infrastructure


Process Competencies

Quality

Cost

Flow Time

Flexib

ility

Stakeholders

Satisfaction

Customer Satisfactio

n

Value Chain

Performance

Financial Performanc

e

Expectations

Perceptions


Customer Value Proposition

Quality

Cost


Competitive Space; Quality and Cost Efficiency

Cost

CSUNP

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Cost Efficiency: 1/CostCostQual

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Cost Efficiency

World Class Universities

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Cost Efficiency

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CSUN

S:1/45P:1/42B=1/15N/15C:1/7


Flow Time: COABE. 11-Years Graduation Rate and Time To Graduation PerformanceCOABE First-Time

FreshmenFirst-Time Transfers

Total Incoming

Freshmen/Total

Graduates Graduates/Incoming

Continuing Students

All Students

Drop-Offs

Drop-Off Rate

All Students (FTEs)

FTEs / HC

2000 5,3642001 548 879 1,427 38% 1064 75% 4,339 5,766 -39 -3% 4,381 76%2002 582 765 1,347 43% 1242 92% 4,586 5,933 -62 -5% 4,459 75%2003 623 750 1,373 45% 1268 92% 4,569 5,942 96 7% 4,469 75%2004 536 709 1,245 43% 1329 107% 4,431 5,676 182 15% 4,255 75%2005 659 987 1,646 40% 1308 79% 4,557 6,203 -189 -11% 4,809 78%2006 674 1,028 1,702 40% 1408 83% 4,945 6,647 -150 -9% 5,066 76%2007 701 1,042 1,743 40% 1537 88% 4,996 6,739 114 7% 5,183 77%2008 791 935 1,726 46% 1487 86% 4,969 6,695 283 16% 5,197 78%2009 624 938 1,562 40% 1417 91% 4,568 6,130 710 45% 4,704 77%2010 693 1,068 1,761 39% 1489 85% 4,187 5,948 454 26% 4,555 77%2011 676 1,101 1,777 38% 1378 78% 4,133 5,910 437 25% 4,717 80%Mean 646 927 1,574 41% 1,357 86% 4,571 6,144 167 11% 4,709 77%

Initial headcounts 2001 5,364 Average FTEs 2001-11 4,709Average Incoming 2001-11 1,574 Average incoming freshman 646Average Graduates 2001-11 1357 Freshmen/Total 41%Ending headcounts 2011 5,910 Graduates/incoming 86%Average Drop-offs 2001-11 167 Drop-off Rate 11%Average headcounts 2001-11 6,144 FTEs/HC 77%

Flow Time 3.90


Competing Edges and Process Competencies


Customer Value Proposition

Stakeholders

Satisfaction

Value Chain

Performance

Flow Time

Quality

Cost

Flexib

ility

Customer Satisfactio

n

Financial Performanc

e

Expectations

Perceptions

Flow Time

RT=IR = Throughput = 1574I = Population = 6144T =3.94 year life at CSUNFreshman 41%Drop-off 11%TtD = 0.25 TtGFTtGT = 0.5 TtGFTtGF =6.0 years

Flow Time

Inventory

Thro

ughp

ut


Flow Time: Time To Graduation

TtD/TtGD6.0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.500.25 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.10.30 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.80.35 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.50.40 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2

TtGT 0.45 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0TtGF 0.50 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7

0.55 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.50.60 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.30.65 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.10.70 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0


Flow Time: Time To GraduationTable 1. % of Graduation Rate for the First Time freshmen (based on averages). Table 2. % of Graduation Rate for the First Time freshmen (Based on Upward Trends).Fall Total Fall ≤ 4 years ≤ 5 years ≤ 6 years ≤ 7 years ≤ 8 years ≤ 9 years Regression Total Fall ≤ 4 years ≤ 5 years ≤ 6 years ≤ 7 years ≤ 8 years ≤ 9 years1997 2568 3% 18% 32% 38% 42% 44% Slope (b0) 2296 0.034 0.178 0.317 0.385 0.415 0.4201998 2286 6% 23% 36% 43% 46% 48% Intercept (b1) 149.49 0.009 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.017 0.0251999 2602 7% 24% 36% 43% 47% 49% Coeff. Determ. (R2) 0.71 0.89 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.87 0.952000 2821 8% 25% 39% 46% 49% 52% p value (a) 0.0022 0.0001 0.0003 0.0017 0.0191 0.0206 0.02322001 3270 8% 26% 39% 46% 49% Regression 3791 13% 35% 47% 53% 59% 67%2002 3662 8% 26% 39% 46%2003 3595 10% 30% 43%2004 2975 12% 33%2005 3713 11%2006 3690Average 3118 8% 26% 38% 44% 47% 48%

4-year GR =13%, 9- year GR= 67%. Time to graduation, for those graduating in ≤ 9 years has µ = 6.3, σ = 2.6 years.


Systems Thinking; Rumi- Elephant in the DarkGlobal Optimal vs. Local Optimal


Rumi, the 13th Century Persian poet, and the teacher of Sufism, has a retelling of the story of the blind men and an elephant originated in India "The elephant in the dark".

■ Felt the elephant with his palm in the darkness. ■ If each had a candle, differences would disappear.

From Rumi that Muslim teacher of Sufism and Systems -thinking in 13th century to Eliahu Goldratt, an Israeli physicist in 20thTheory of constraints

■ An enterprise is a chain■ The chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

Systems Thinking; Elephant in the Dark


Theory of ConstraintsJust like the links of a chain, the resources and learning processes at CSUN work together to generate value for the students and other stakeholders. A chain is as strong as its weakest link.Time, effort, and funds devoted to non-binding constraints are a waste of organizational resources.


The Weakest Link; The binding Constraint■ Better text books■ Revision of our teaching material■ Assignments to fill the gap between capability of our

students and requirements of our text books■ Hiring higher quality professors■ Replacing Problem solving with case studies■ Active learning, problem based learning, Peer Lerning■ Increasing the utilization of our classrooms■ Replacing chairs and desks of the classrooms■ Add more Technology in classroom■ Ipad in our classroom



Cost Efficiency

Production of a Cartier Rolex watch and Asef’s Watch using exactly the same process competencies.

Qual

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IP

■Physical segregation politically incorrect

■Honor Student Sessions not fit the schedule of all honors

■Virtual Segregation


The Core Course of Operations ManagementPre-requisites and Past Performance

15%(A,A-)

15%(B-,B, B+)

35%(C, C+)

35%(C-,D+, D,D-,F)

LD3LD2

LD5LD4

GWFMOM

LD2


The Gap Between Layers of Students

Turn D and F students into C students. Or Turn A and B students into MS and PhD candidates. Unlike Sci., Eng. and Soc. Science at CSUN, COBAE is not known for MS and PhD.


Scheduled Availability and Net AvailabilityWe need to refuses to accept current NA/SA as a constraint, and treat them as variables.1. Exploit the constraints2. Subordinate everything else to that constraint3. Elevate the Constraints4. When the constraint is relaxed, look for the next

constraint


The 3 Binding Constraints

Net Availability Distracts

Deep Gap in Students Capabilities

Low

Sch

edul

ed

Avai

labi

lity


Scheduled Availability and Net Availability■ Scheduled-availability: the time that students spend

on campus or anywhere on their education. ■ Net-availability: level of concentration during

scheduled-availability. Surfing unrelated sites and text messaging are perfect instantiations of net-availability detracts

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=text+messaging&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=LgZ3-7syl4t0RM&tbnid=8YA9IWfjoj0IfM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://computer.howstuffworks.com/e-mail-messaging/sms.htm&ei=ibYIUdz-EMOziwKdgoHgDw&bvm=bv.41642243,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNGOdjIfccjABexeJ1AvH78LEM-3cg&ust=1359611850371412

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=clock&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=Dv4aMr7KrwoEDM&tbnid=YFMS18bK6i1fYM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://theclockmaster.com/&ei=OSsTUf6_C-3RiAL6m4GoCg&bvm=bv.42080656,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNGktURVzkZ2jA7RlPT6AhsL2zihow&ust=1360296745947365


How to Operationalize the Strategy■Promotion/advertisement. Reduce working &

leisure time. ■Improved time management■Develop a culture, if you are not focused now

you need to allocate more time later.■NPV of the direct financial costs of delayed

graduation.■NPV of economics and social costs of delayed

graduation. ■Changing the fee structure.■Grant Writing. From SUBWAY to on-campus

employment. ■Centralization, e.g. Admission and Library

processes. Intends to allocate the released resources to more value-added activities such as advisement and internship.

■Flipped Classroom. Deliver the lectures online. Assign the class time to more value added activities.


Time to Graduation vs. VarietyVa

riety

Time to Graduation (TtG)

What % of honor and likely-honor students can take honor sessions ? (schedule conflict).

5 6 7 8 94


Retention Rate vs. VarietyVa

riety

Retention Rate (RR) 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%40%


Scheduled Availability and Net Availability

The most binding constraints on GR & TtG are ■ Scheduled-availability: the time that students

spend on campus or anywhere on their education. ■ Net-availability: level of concentration during

scheduled-availability. Surfing unrelated sites and text messaging are perfect instantiations of net-availability detracts.

■ We need to refuses to accept current NA/SA as a constraint, and treat them as variables.

1. Exploit the constraints2. Subordinate everything else to that constraint3. Elevate the Constraints4. When the constraint is relaxed, look for the next

constraint


How to Increase SA&NA. Student Side■Reduce working hours, leisure time■Improved time management■NPV of the direct financial costs of delayed

graduation..■NPV of economics and social costs of delayed

graduation. ■Changing the fee structure. Not the same fee for

12-21units, benefit of economy of scale, failure or low quality graduates.

■Centralization of processes such as library, no downsizing, allocate the released resources to advisement and internship

■Develop a culture, if you are not focused now you need to allocate more time later.

■Flipped Classroom. Deliver the lectures online. Assign the class time to more value added activities.


Admissions & Records; Inverse Seasonality Relationship

Level of activitiesHigh

Records

Admissions

LowJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month


eTranscript


Centralized Admission


DPR Knowledge; Questionnaire Results


Academic Advisement Reform■Use $9.7M in potential cost savings from e-Transcript

and Master Auto Admit to:

■Hire more academic advisors ■ $70,000 annual salary/academic advisor■ 138 new academic advisors ($9.7M/$70K)■ CSUN gets 12 more academic advisors per year

■Provide advising services during evening hours

■Mandatory advisement for students with GPA < 3.0 every semester.

■Provide more workshop on DPR knowledge


Savings from One Semester Shorter TtG


Course Repetition Reduction■Each (resident) student reduces course repetition by

1.2 semester units per semester.

■CSU saves $16.4 million per year


Course Delivery System Matrix■Traditional, Hybrid, Online, or Flipped

■On the spectrum from pure qualitative to pure quantitative, where the course is standing. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this type of courses.

■Where the student is standing; FM, SM, JR, SR. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this year in the program.

■On the spectrum from pure individual work to pure teamwork, where the course is standing. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this type of course.

■On the spectrum from pure qualitative to pure quantitative, where the course is standing. What can Ipad do for this type of courses.


Flipped Classroom

longer spent on teaching the basic concepts, but on more value-added activities

Problem solving

Trouble

shouting

ParticipationEnhancement

Real world Apps

and Discussions

Syst

ems-

thin

king

Crea

tive

-th

inkin

g

Case studies Web-based Simulation

By delivering the lectures online using recorded screen captures, the students are empowered to stop, rewind, and Fast Forward the professor.

This is an excellent learning power. Class time is no


Cost World – Bounded World

Improvement by moving online or hybrid is also limited. 2%, 5%, 10%, or -%?

Reduction in the cost of a traditional course delivery by switching it to online is bound by the total cost of the course.

http://lssacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/cost-savings.jpg


Costs = Trips, Professors, Classrooms, TAsFor the hybrid courses to achieve their cost reduction goal from the students’ perspective, it is important to bundle 2-4 courses in a hybrid form - to save a direct $ and indirect (time) cost of round trip to campus.

Opportunity cost of room > Opportunity cost of professor.

Online and hybrid, no prof., extensive TA hours?

http://otl.stanford.edu/

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=Professors+Rooms&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=fNoIBaRRD4jeBM&tbnid=jbjm_Ikdkl9xBM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.thefacultylounge.org/2009/09/faculty-lounges-rooms-with-a-view.html&ei=5W8mUaTuB-b3igLruYCIBw&psig=AFQjCNHXbxQ3E8wLnx0eme_-8PXomVCATg&ust=1361559897878844


Cost World – Behavioral AspectsMake the educational entity more efficient through workforce reduction? Human resources will informally resist.

First generation college students;face-to-face, live communication with their professors; their role models, their future friends. That is a valuable chuck to put on their parents table.


Cost World vs. Throughput World

Online courses are Made To Stock products. Flipped classroom is Make to Order.

Flipped Courses belong to the throughout world. The feasible region of the throughput in the direction of improvement of the objective function is unbounded.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=depositphotos&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ZxXefccANsZJrM&tbnid=--FU4LOQ-0Dm0M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.blogager.com/the-depositphotos-treasure/&ei=I5IkUZCCOeiligKh4IGoAw&bvm=bv.42661473,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNFpv9tGcoimWNTmgdcbXmGQzvGP5g&ust=1361437578144937


Cost World vs. Throughput World

Not even a single class session is cancelled in a flipped classroom, while all the lectures are delivered online.

Class discussions in a flipped classroom can differentiate us. Transfer our courses into a non-tradable products; a product renewing itself in each new offering. Flipped Courses add to dynamic capabilities of universities.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=depositphotos&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ZxXefccANsZJrM&tbnid=--FU4LOQ-0Dm0M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.blogager.com/the-depositphotos-treasure/&ei=I5IkUZCCOeiligKh4IGoAw&bvm=bv.42661473,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNFpv9tGcoimWNTmgdcbXmGQzvGP5g&ust=1361437578144937


Great Films are not just a great Idea

http://moviesididntget.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/500stanley_kubrick.jpg


Great Films are a Network of Good Chunks well Integrated.

http://graceuniversity.edu/iip/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/doctor-zhivago.jpeg

http://www.opensubtitles.org/en/subtitleserve/sub/4218682


Flipped Classroom Has All the Competing Edges of Traditional, Hybrid, and Online Courses

■In order for a flipped classroom to outperform its substitutes it need to at least have all online and hybrid capabilities.

■Four competing edges of a successful course is clear, consistent, high expectations, just in time support, continual assessment (early feedback and understand secret of early effective warning system warning on performance and how to improve) , student engagement social engagement collaborative teaching


The Total Flipped Classroom System


Class Attendance, Class Participation, Class Engagement

Class Participation

Class Attendance

Clas

s En

hanc

emen

t


The network of 16 Resources and Learning Processes to Re-enforce the Core Concept


Time To Graduation- Micro View; StatisticsTable 1. % of Graduation Rate for the First Time freshmen (based on averages). Table 2. % of Graduation Rate for the First Time freshmen (Based on Upward Trends).Fall Total Fall ≤ 4 years ≤ 5 years ≤ 6 years ≤ 7 years ≤ 8 years ≤ 9 years Regression Total Fall ≤ 4 years ≤ 5 years ≤ 6 years ≤ 7 years ≤ 8 years ≤ 9 years1997 2568 3% 18% 32% 38% 42% 44% Slope (b0) 2296 0.034 0.178 0.317 0.385 0.415 0.4201998 2286 6% 23% 36% 43% 46% 48% Intercept (b1) 149.49 0.009 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.017 0.0251999 2602 7% 24% 36% 43% 47% 49% Coeff. Determ. (R2) 0.71 0.89 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.87 0.952000 2821 8% 25% 39% 46% 49% 52% p value (a) 0.0022 0.0001 0.0003 0.0017 0.0191 0.0206 0.02322001 3270 8% 26% 39% 46% 49% Regression 3791 13% 35% 47% 53% 59% 67%2002 3662 8% 26% 39% 46%2003 3595 10% 30% 43%2004 2975 12% 33%2005 3713 11%2006 3690Average 3118 8% 26% 38% 44% 47% 48%


CSUN. 11-Years Graduation Rate and Time To Graduation PerformanceCSUN First-Time

FreshmenFirst-Time Transfers

Total Incoming

Freshmen/Total

Graduates Graduates/Incoming

Continuing Students

All Students

Net Drop-Offs

Drop-Off Rate

All Students (FTEs)

FTEs/HC

2000 22,5532001 3,302 3,405 6,707 49% 4824 72% 17,756 24,463 0 0% 19,725 81%2002 3,675 3,122 6,797 54% 5073 75% 18,984 25,781 406 6% 20,837 81%2003 3,610 2,726 6,336 57% 4944 78% 19,437 25,773 1,400 22% 20,807 81%2004 2,979 2,671 5,650 53% 5488 97% 19,003 24,653 1,282 23% 19,789 80%2005 3,720 3,754 7,474 50% 5564 74% 19,380 26,854 0 0% 21,941 82%2006 3,695 3,833 7,528 49% 5682 75% 20,753 28,281 419 6% 22,862 81%2007 4,130 3,989 8,119 51% 6619 82% 21,365 29,484 297 4% 23,749 81%2008 4,625 3,652 8,277 56% 6416 78% 21,958 30,235 1,110 13% 24,667 82%2009 4,203 3,692 7,895 53% 6426 81% 21,380 29,275 2,429 31% 23,511 80%2010 5,195 4,472 9,667 54% 6723 70% 20,213 29,880 2,339 24% 23,815 80%2011 5,269 4,917 10,186 52% 6520 64% 21,318 31,504 2,042 20% 26,010 83%

Mean 4,037 3,658 7,694 52% 5,844 76% 20,141 27,835 1037 13% 22,519 81%

Initial headcounts 2001 22,553 Aggregate FTEs 2001-11 22,519Average Incoming 2001-11 7,694 Average incoming freshman 4,037Average Graduates 2001-11 5844 Freshmen/Total 52%Ending headcounts 2011 31,504 Graduates/incoming 76%Average Drop-offs 2001-11 1,037 Drop-off Rate 13%Average headcounts 2001-11 27,835 FTEs/HC 81%

Flow Time 3.62


Time To Graduation- Micro View; Statistics51.625% 12.500% 1

TtD6.0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.400.25 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.30.30 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.90.35 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.60.40 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.30.45 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1

TtGT 0.50 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.90.55 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.60.60 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.40.65 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2


Meetings, Pounds of Sticky Notes■ Meetings; how to improve something; Ex. Increasing GR

and reducing TtG. ■ Sticky notes 10s of ideas; each writes a different

prescription.■ Each sticky note looking at the hill on its own horizon

as the top of the mountain■ Local View, Local Optimization, Sub-system

optimization.

■ Global Send the students to China, Brazil, India….■ Global Have a global view- Systems Thinking

see the elephant

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=sticky+not&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ZPgmL_4X7atQaM&tbnid=ydPEUQC6fydzHM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.thefastestpaydayloans.com/?tag=sticky-notes&ei=gqkIUZjEEar8igLynYD4BA&bvm=bv.41642243,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNFn1Vb_nZ4AFY-NVLzjaB8Ser4s7g&ust=1359608537130225


Meetings, Sticky Notes■ Meetings; how to improve something; Ex. Increasing GR

and reducing TtG. ■ Sticky notes 10s of ideas; each writes a different

prescription.■ Each sticky note looking at the hill on its own horizon

as the top of the mountain■ Local View, Local Optimization, Sub-system

optimization.

■ Global Send the students to China, Brazil, India….■ Global Have a global view- Systems Thinking

see the elephant


Quality

Cost

Flow Time

Flexib

ility

Flexibility of Processes vs. Quality of Row Material■do not offer enough elective courses■for the required courses, students on long waiting lines

and beg their professors to enroll in a session fitting their schedule. They work 20-40 hrs

Flexib

ility

On the Student s’ Academic Success Facet of the Strategic Positioning of a College of...

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