1. foresight = preparedness

2. not prediction 3. helps you strategise 4. but its hard to make time (catch 22) 5. looking back from 2020 (permanent beta, please dont sue) 6. the future is already here its just unevenly distributed william gibson 7. the teens began with desire for change [coalition, electoral reform] 8. theres no more money the coalition response was part of a global shift in how the state delivers (the 1990s nowseem as long ago as the 1970s did in 2010)why did this happen? 9. underlying crunch4 of economy, climate, resources & stubborn, rising need 10. a rubiks cube of new old words biggoodgovt localcitizens society 11. cutting a smaller cake cross-cutting social splits:soaring expectations (eg EU & UK equal rights law) v dwindling receiptswhite-ish, rich, baby-boomers-plus v young, diverse, poor, undeserving migrants 12. in 2010, 36p of each 1 of charity income was from govt Statutory funding of the VCS, 2001/01- 2007/08 (billions): NCVO cuts took us back to 2003/04 (Tory pre-election figures)ie: pre-ChangeUp investment 13. innovation nationeg: social impact bonds way back in 2010 peterborough prison pilot raised 5m if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJwould share out savings but many questions neededresolving:what change counts?who counts it? 14. technology changed - exponentially(click twice) 15. in 2020, social media is the medianot just comms & campaignsthe network effect caused explosive growth. in 2010 twitter already had 180m users (after just 4 years)(almost) the death of print mediain 2020 your mobile is the main way you use the webbut the IT poor are a real problem 16. giving without the middle-man 50+ global web philanthropy exchanges in 2010 eg kivain 2020, you are the philanthropistreal-time, direct relationship with your pet projectsis there still a role for generalist organisations when people can source everything direct? 17. atomised collectivity(in 2010 we called it community) small government (& small society?)web-enabled micro-volunteering of what Clay Shirky called your cognitive surplussingle equalities act diversity mosaic? not blending 18. back in 2010, what does all this mean for our near future? 19. a push for local solutions.individual & community responsibility grassroots swell in community organising - Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non-relatives in the last 12 months facilitated by technology, driven by needCitizenship Survey all politicians try to conceptualise & harness this (eg NESTAs mass localism)but no consensus yet on: big/ small society / governmentpolls say we dont think experts & govt know best, & support others getting involved. but volunteering is static, even after 13 years of Labour investment ! 20. there are so many ifs. eghow do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisations success? (%) Ipsos-MORI for OTS 21. its not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent,its the most adaptable