Decisions and Actions: The April 27th Tornadoes

Looking Back At How We Reacted

An Interactive Town HallHosted by the

National Weather Association

Welcome

Dr. John Scala

WGAL-TV Lancaster/Lebanon/Harrisburg PAPrivate Weather ConsultantFirst On Air Storm Analyst

The Weather Channel2008 NWA President

Weather Trivia: What’s This Radar Feature?

• Comma Head • Hook Echo• Gravity Wave• Tropical Wave• Hail Spike• Velocity Couplet

Weather Trivia: What’s This Cloud?

• Tail Cloud• Shelf Cloud• Wall Cloud • Funnel Cloud

Weather Trivia: What Am I?This weather alert means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and you should monitor conditions and keep an eye to the sky• Tornado Watch• Tornado Warning• Slight Risk

Tonight’s Agenda6:30 p.m. Doors Open

6:50 p.m. Warm Up

7:00 p.m. Why We Are Here Introduction of Facilitators Introduction of the Panel Introduction of the Focus Group Recognition of the Audience Response Group

7:20 p.m The Program Advance Notice Getting the Warnings Taking Action

Decisions and Actions: The April 27th Tornadoes

Looking Back At How We Reacted

An Interactive Town HallHosted by the

National Weather Association

Tonight’s Facilitators

Dr. Laura Myers, Mississippi State University

Kim Klockow,The University of Oklahoma

Tonight’s Panel

Jim Stefkovich, NWS BirminghamEric Jones, Emergency Manager

Jerry Tracey, WVTM Birmingham Janet Teer, DCH Regional Medical Center

Dr. Suzanne Freeman, Trussville City SchoolsBig Box Store Manager

Jonathan Nelson, Birmingham Barons

Tonight’s Focus Group

• Member 1• Member 2• Member 3• Member 4• Member 5

• Member 6• Member 7• Member 8• Member 9• Member 10

A Few Guidelines

• If you were affected by severe weather on April 27th, we want you to fix on the most significant storm for you and your community.

• As you answer questions, think about that storm.

Receiving Warnings

Typically How Do You Receive Your Warnings While You Are Awake?

(Choose all that apply)• NOAA Weatheradio • Outdoor Sirens • Television Broadcasts• Commercial Radio Broadcasts • Email/Twitter/Internet/Smartphone• Calling System (WeatherCall/Notify) • Personal Observations of Sky • Messages from Family/Friends

Typically How Do You Receive Your Warnings After Going to Sleep?

• I Don’t Have a Method That Wakes Me• NOAA Weatheradio • Siren • Smartphone• Calling System (WeatherCall/Notify)

Did You Own A NOAA Weatheradio on April 27th?

• No: But I Have Since • No: Can’t Afford One • No: Don’t Have Reception in My Area • No: They Are Too Complicated to Use • No: They Go Off Too Often • Yes, But I Did Not Use it That Day • Yes, And I Relied on it That Day • Yes, But the Transmitter Was Out of Service • Yes, But the Electricity Was Out/No Battery

If You Don’t Use Your Weatheradio, Is There a Reason?

• Goes Off Too Often • Don’t Understand How to Program My

Counties Into It• It Warns Me for Storms That Are Not

Near My Location• Reception Is Not Good• Forget To Turn It On

Peak Tornado Season in Alabama is March/April, with a

Secondary Season in the Fall…

Do You Pay More Attention to Events During the “Tornado Seasons”?• Yes, I am More Aware During the

Primary and Secondary “Tornado Seasons”

• No, I Treat All Potential Tornado Events With he Same Priority

Do You Feel Any of These Statements Apply to You?

• Our Community is Protected from Tornadoes by Terrain/Water

• Tornadoes Always Go Around Us

On Average, How Many Tornadoes Would You Say Hit Your County Each Year?

• 0• 1-2• 3-4• 5-6• More than 6

On Average, How Many Tornado Warnings Are Issued For Your Residence Location Each Year?

• 0• 1-3• 4-6• 6-10• More than 10

On Average, How Many Tornado Warnings Are Issued For Your Residence Location Each Year?

• 0• 1-3• 4-6• 6-10• More than 10

Looking Back Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Severe Weather is a Frequent Occurrence in Alabama…

What Was Your Experience Before 4/27? • Had Never Personally Experienced Damaging

Weather Before• Had Experienced Minor Damage from Severe

Weather • Had Experienced a Tornado, But Only Minor

Damage • Had Experienced Major Damage from a

Tornado • Had Suffered Injury in a Tornado

When Did You Become Aware of the Forecast for Bad Weather for

Wednesday 4/27?

• Prior to the Weekend Before (5+ Days)• The Weekend Before (3-4 Days) • Monday/Tuesday (1-2 Days Before)• Earlier on Wednesday, April 27th• Was Not Aware Until Storms Struck • I Don’t Recall

Were You Aware That Predictions Were That This Was Going to be an Unusually Severe Event?

• Yes• No

You Started Taking Preliminary Precautions (Changed Plans, Cleaned Out Shelter, Stocked Supplies, etc.):

• In Days Leading Up To Event • That Morning • When Tornado Watch Was Issued • When Storms Approached My Area• When Warning Was Issued • Didn’t Take Preliminary Precautions

How Did the Morning Storms Affect Your Perception of the Severe Weather Forecasted for the Afternoon?

• They Did Not Affect My Perception of the Danger• Made Me More Aware of the Potential Danger• Thought the Early Storms Were the Main Event• Thought the Early Storms Would Keep the

Afternoon Storms From Being as Severe • Damage/Power Outages from Early Storms Made

Me Unaware of the Afternoon Threat

Where Were You When Your Main Severe Weather Was Closest to You?

• At Home • At Work • At School • In Car or Other Vehicle • In a Business Other Than Work • Outside

Who Was With You When the Storms Struck Your Area?

• No one • Family, Including Children • Family, No Children • Friends• Strangers • Co-Workers

Did You Rely on Local Television to Follow the Severe Weather?

• Yes: One Station• Yes: Multiple Stations (Switched Channel)• No: Power Was Out • No: Cable/Satellite Was Out • No: Relied on Another Source • No: Was Not Following Weather on TV

If You Came Under A Tornado Warning, How Did You First Hear of It?

• Siren • Television/Commercial Radio (AM/FM) • NOAA Weatheradio• Internet Website/Social Media • Friend or Family • Did Not Hear the Warning

Did Sirens Sound in Your Area?

• Yes• Don’t Know, Didn’t Hear Them • No • Don’t Recall

Do You Rely on Sirens to Signal A Severe Weather Threat?

• Yes• No: Don’t Have Them in My Area• No: Can’t Hear them Indoors • No: Don’t Understand Siren Policies in

My Area• Don’t Recall

What Was Your Immediate Reaction to the Tornado Warning?

• Checked the Sky • Turned to Another Source to Confirm• Called Someone to Alert Them • Immediately Took Protective Action • Nothing, Warnings Happen All the Time• Waited for More Information

What Sources Did You Use to Confirm the Threat?

Check All That Apply:• Television Broadcasts • Commercial Radio Broadcasts• Internet • Social Media • NOAA Weatheradio • Message From Friend or Family • Personal Observation • Other

Were All of Your Weather Sources Communicating the Same Message?

• Yes: All Were Saying the Same Thing• No, Some Sources Gave Conflicting

Information

What Information Is Most Important To You In Interpreting Your Risk?

• Severity Of the Storm• Proximity/Path of the Storm • Potential Danger Posed by the Storm• Suggested Protective Actions • Hearing Specific Geographic Locations

How Important Is Visual Confirmation of the Storm in Prompting You to Take Protective Action?

• Not Important • Somewhat Important • Important • Very Important

What Television Indicator Is Most Helpful To You in Evaluating Your Risk?

• Seeing the Past Motion of the Storm on Radar

• Seeing the Projected Track on Radar • Seeing Live Video of Tornado • Hearing Significant Damage Reports• Seeing News Footage of Damage • The Urgency in the Broadcaster’s Voice• Wall to Wall Coverage of the Event

How Confident Were You in Your Understanding of the Warning Information You Were Hearing?

• Extremely Confident • Moderately Confident • Somewhat Confident • Not very Confident • Not Confident at All • Unsure

On 4/27, How Confident Were You Of Your Ability to Take Appropriate Action?

• Not Confident at All • Not Very Confident • Somewhat Confident • Very Confident

On April 27th, Did You Already Have a Tornado Safety Plan?

• No: And I Still Don’t• No: But I Do Now • No: But I Am Going to Develop One • Yes: But I Did Not Follow It • Yes: And I Did Follow It

Had You Discussed Your Tornado Plan With Your Children Before 4/27?

• Don’t Have Children at Home• No: We Had Not Discussed It • Yes: We Had Discussed It • Yes: And We Reviewed It Periodically

If You Had a Plan, But Didn’t Follow It, Why Didn’t You?

• I Was in an Unfamiliar Place and Was Unaware of What to Do

• The Storms Never Were Close Enough to Warrant It

• I Was Not Aware of the Threat • Not Applicable

If You Were Asked What the Primary Choices For Protective Action Should Be, What Would You Say (Check All)

• Interior Hallway • Basement • Highway Overpass• Bathroom • Storm Shelter

• Ditch or Ravine • Small room, lowest

floor, middle of house • Safe Room • Designated Shelter

Area

Did You Ever Take Protective Action?• Yes• No: “Warnings Happen All the Time”• No: “Tornadoes Don’t Hit My Area” • No: Had No Viable Shelter Options• No: “If It’s My Time to Go, It’s My Time”• No: Pets, Age, Health, Physical Disability, or

Lack of Transportation• No: Didn’t Think it Would Happen to Me• No: Didn’t Know What to Do• No: I Don’t Know Why

If Yes, When Did You Do So? • When I Received the Tornado Warning • When the TV Weatherperson Called Out My Community • When Someone Called Me and Told Me to Take Shelter • When Radar Showed the Storm Within a Certain Distance

From My Community • When I Saw Environmental Clues (Clouds, Wind, Hail,

Seeing Tornado, Debris)• When a Police Car Came Around With Siren/Bullhorn• When Siren Sounded • When Heard There Was a Confirmed Tornado On the

Ground

What Protective Action Did You Take?• None• Basement • Bathroom, Closet, Hallway or Small

Room • Went to Sturdier Structure • Went to Storm Shelter or Designated

Shelter Area• Fled in Car

On 4/27, Did You Have Access to a Below Ground or Reinforced Storm Shelter?

• No• Yes: Inside Home • Yes: Outside Home • Yes: Next Door • Yes: Down Street • Yes: In Community

Did Environmental Clues Cause You to Take Protective Action?

• No, Environmental Clues Didn’t Play Role in Decision

• Yes: Falling Debris • Yes: Unusual Clouds/Lightning/Thunder• Yes: Large Hail• Yes: Strong Wind• Yes: Hearing a Roar/Seeing the Funnel

How Much Time Was There Between Hearing the Warning

and the Storm’s Arrival?

• No Warning • Less Than 5 Minutes • 5-10 Minutes • 11-15 Minutes • 16-30 Minutes • 31+ Minutes

Do You Feel That You Had Enough Time to Take Protective Action?

• Yes• No

How Much Time Do You Need After Hearing a Warning to Take Proper

Protective Action?• Less Than 5 Minutes • 6-10 Minutes • 11-30 Minutes • More Than 30 Minutes

Can There Be Too Much Time Between a Warning and the Actual Storm?

• No, the More Warning the Better • Yes, More Than 15 Minutes is Too Much• Yes, More Than 30 Minutes is Too Much• Yes, More Than 1 Hour is Too Much

Did You Live in a Mobile Home on 4/27?

• No • Yes

If Yes, Did You Leave Mobile Home Before Storm Struck Your Area?

• No• Yes: When I Heard the Tornado Warning• Yes: When I Saw Storms on Radar, But

Before the Warning was Issued• Yes: Between the Tornado Watch and

When Storms Started Moving My Way• Yes: Only When I Saw Evidence of the

Approaching Storm • Not Applicable

Will You Act Differently Next Time There is a Tornado Warning?

• No • Yes: Take Protective Action Sooner • Yes: Take a Different Protective Action• Yes: Seek Information Sooner• Yes: Have Better Sources of

Information• Yes: Execute a Safety Plan That I Did

Not Have Previously

Looking Forward

In Your Opinion, Are There Too Many Tornado Warnings?

• No, I Want to be Warned Any Time There is a Potential Threat of a Tornado.

• Yes, Tornado Warnings are Issued For Too Many Marginal Events.

• Yes, Perhaps There Should be a Different Alert For Radar Indicated Tornadoes

• Yes, Tornado Warnings Should Only Be Issued When A Tornado Is On The Ground

What Are Your Thoughts On Storm Based Warnings (Polygons)?

• I like them, they are more precise

• I like the old county based warnings better, they are less confusing

• I don’t have a way to access them, so they are irrelevant

• I have never seen this

When a Tornado Warning is Issued for Your Location, What’s Your Expectation?

• That a Tornado Will NEARLY ALWAYS Occur in the Warned Area

• That a Tornado Will SOMETIMES NOT OCCUR in the Warned Area

• That a Tornado Usually Doesn’t Occur When Warnings are Issued

The National False Alarm Rate for Tornado Warnings is 76%

But 70% of All Tornadoes Are Warned For…Would you Like to:• Leave it as is• Have a Lower False Alarm Rate, at the

Expense of More Unwarned Tornadoes?• Have a Higher False Alarm Rate and Catch

Even More Tornadoes With Warnings?

FOCUS GROUP: How Can the Warning System Be Made Better?

• Idea 1 • Idea 2• Idea 3• Idea 4• Idea 5 • Idea 6

Thank You!

Extra Slides

What County Do You Live In?

• Tuscaloosa/Jefferson/St. Clair/Calhoun/Cherokee

• Marion/Franklin/Lawrence • Walker/Cullman/Blount• Marshall /DeKalb/Jackson • Other • I Don’t Know

What Made You Pick the Primary Station You Watched?

• Trust that meteorologist more • One station covered my area more

specifically • One station showed more video • One station showed more radar loops • One station showed maps with the track

displayed

What Made You Switch to Another Channel?

• Get more information• My area was not being mentioned• Another was showing live video • Someone told me to turn to another station• One station was not showing radar enough

If Yes, What Made You Take Protective Action?

• Seriousness of warning information• Proximity of the storm • Hearing the sirens• Hearing that a tornado was doing damage• Environmental clues (clouds, debris)