NMNT 2016

FUTURES

FUTURES

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

Beyond Human Level Intelligence

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion’, and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control

I.J. Good, "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine", Advances in Computers, vol. 6, 1965

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

• Compact program: total human genome is 800MB

• Networked: 100 trillion connections

• Massive computation: 10^19 calc per sec.

• Slow: 200 TPS

NMNT 2016

Some Alternative Hardware• The Ultimate Lap Top (Seth Lloyd, 1999)

– 1 KG, 1 L– E = MC^2 = 8.9874 × 10^16 joules– ‘to perform an elementary logical operation in time ∆t requires

an average amount of energy E ≥ πh/2∆t. As a consequence, a system with average energy E can perform a maximum of 2E/πh logical operations per second.’

– Max speed = 5.4258 × 10^50 operations per second.. Max memory 10^31 bits.

• Exercises into the how: 10^25 atoms, 50 bits – 4M bits per atom

• Just theory?– Moore’s Law– Nanotechnology (Drexler, nano scales rods mechanical

computer, 10^12 processors, 10^21 cps)– DNA Computing– Quantum Computing

NMNT 2016

Software: Learning Machines

• Turing

Instead of trying to produce a programme to simulate the adult mind, why not rather try to

produce one which simulates the child’s? If this then would be subjected to an

appropriate course of education one would obtain the adult brain.

Turing, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, Mind 1950

NMNT 2016

Example: Neural Networks

NMNT 2016

Other Developments Example: Genome Editing

NMNT 2016

Beware what you wish for (Bostrom)

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

The best way to predict the future is to change it.

George Church, Harvard University

NMNT 2016

Today designers often focus on making technology easy to use, sexy, and consumable. In Speculative Everything, Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby propose a kind of design that is used as a tool to create not only things but ideas. For them, design is a means of speculating about how things could be—to imagine possible futures. This is not the usual sort of predicting or forecasting, spotting trends and extrapolating; these kinds of predictions have been proven wrong, again and again. Instead, Dunne and Raby pose “what if” questions that are intended to open debate and discussion about the kind of future people want (and do not want).

NMNT 2016

Speculative Everything offers a tour through an emerging cultural landscape of design ideas, ideals, and approaches. Dunne and Raby cite examples from their own design and teaching and from other projects from fine art, design, architecture, cinema, and photography. They also draw on futurology, political theory, the philosophy of technology, and literary fiction. They show us, for example, ideas for a solar kitchen restaurant; a flypaper robotic clock; a menstruation machine; a cloud-seeding truck; a phantom-limb sensation recorder; and devices for food foraging that use the tools of synthetic biology. Dunne and Raby contend that if we speculate more—about everything—reality will become more malleable. The ideas freed by speculative design increase the odds of achieving desirable futures.

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

NMNT 2016

Dilbert on the Singularity