Natural Disasters and Impact Priorities for Assessment · PDF fileNatural Disasters and Impact...

Natural Disasters and Impact Priorities for Assessment in Brazil

Prof. Paulo C. SentelhasUniversity of São Paulo, Brazil

ANADIA Task Force Meeting (WMO) Italy - May 2006

Presentation Outline

ANADIA Task Force Meeting (WMO), Italy - May 2006


a) A brief overview about agriculture and climate in Brazil

b) The main natural disasters that affect Brazilianagriculture

c) Focusing on Northeastern Brazil as priority regionfor ANADIA pilot project

d) A proposal for ANADIA pilot project in Brazil

e) Activities demanded for implementation ofANADIA pilot project in NE Brazil



Agriculture or Agribusiness is one of the maineconomical activities in Brazil, responsable for:

• 35% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

• 42% of Exportations

• 37% of Employments

Brazil has 388 millions ha of agricultural lands (90 millions are not still used)

Weather/Climate is the main factor responsable for crop diversity, production levels and yield variability

Brief overview about agriculture andclimate in Brazil



Brazil is a huge country, withdifferent climates

Rainfall and AvgTemp in differentregions of Brazil

Manaus, AM

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Cuiabá, MT

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Santa Maria, RS

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Recife, PE

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Quixeramobim, CE

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Carolina, MA

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These climates result in different water balance regimes, which basically determine the crop zonning

Climatological WaterBalance for different

regions of Brazil

Extrato do Balanço Hídrico Mensal

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Rain Forest

SubsistenceAgriculture

High- TechAgriculture

Humidclimate

Super-humidclimate

Semi-aridclimate



Based on the normal climate of each region of the country, the main natural disasters that affect Brazilian agriculture

are:

• Droughts in humid regions:

Amazon region



Increase of Forest Fires



Droughts in Amazon region are intensified during years of El Niño

DRY



• Droughts in humid regions:

Southern Brazil



Droughts in Southern Brazil are intensified during years of La Niña

DRY



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Ano agrícola

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dim

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(kg/

ha)

DroughtsDroughts in in thethe southsouth ofof thethe country country affectaffect mainlymainlysoybeansoybean productionproduction, , reducingreducing itsits yieldyield

Source: IBGE and CONAB

State of Rio Grande do Sul ≈ 4 millions ha of soybean

Year

Soyb

ean

yiel

d(k

g ha

-1)

Effect of droughts on soybean yield

In 2005, growers´ losses in RS werearound USD 2.5 millions



• Droughts in semi-arid regions:

Years with justregular droughts

Years withvery intense

droughts

Subsistenceproduction

No production

NortheasternBrazil



DRY

Droughts in Northeastern Brazil are intensified duringyears of El Niño



• Frosts in Southern BrazilRegions affected by frosts in Brazil, with

their respectives frequencies

Frost advising system - CPTEC/INPE

High frequency Medium frequency Low frequency Very low frequency

Frost RiskHighMediumLow

State Capital

Federal Capital



• Frosts in Southern Brazil affect mainly coffee plantations in thestates of Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, with yield reductionsof 30-50%, depending on frost intensity.

Number of days with frost per 10 years in some places of the State of

Paraná, Southern Brazil

Place # Frosts per 10 years

Cambará 31 Cascavel 47 Clevelândia 124 Guarapuava 130 Londrina 18 Paranavaí 13 Pinhais 114 Ponta Grossa 109

Source: Grodsky et al. (1997)





Arborization or Shading

Coffee x Banana

Coffee x Bracatinga

Coffee x Dwarf Coconut

Coffee x Pinus



Coffee yield x Arborization

90 9097 100

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Trees ha-1

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Source: Caramori et al. (1997)

Arborization or Shading

Avg coffee yield in all years with and without frost

722925066418365845043400

Processed coffee yield (kg/ha)Trees / haArborization or Shading

Avg coffee yield in years with frost

Source: Caramori et al. (1995)

Yield increased 34%

Yield increased 10%



• Floods in Southern Brazil

It is a serious problem for urban areas. For agricultural lands, flood is not reported as a very important problem and few data are available to evaluate its impact on cropproduction. However, in some years intenserainfall followed by floods can affectsowing, harvesting, and pests controling.

Flood potentialareas in Southern

Brazil

Floods in Southern Brazil are intensified during years of El Niño



Rainy



Considering the impacts caused by the main natural disasters onthe Brazilian agriculture and their consequences to the socio-economic parameters, drought in Northeastern region of the

country seems to be the most importante natural disaster to befocused by ANADIA pilot project



Northeastern Brazil has:• 18% of national territory

• 30% of the population of the country (≈ 48 million people)

• 9% of the national GDP

• 8% of the national grain production

• 32% of the population (15 million people) is under the poverty line, living with less than USD1.00 per day

• Climates: Am = tropical monsoon (8%)Aw = tropical humid and dry (35%)Bsh = semi-arid (57%)



• Familiar agriculture – 85% of properties

• 20 people per km2 in the semi-arid area (one ofthe most populated semi-arid region of the world)

• Very low crop yield (agric. of subsistence)

• Enough water to irrigate only 20-30% of thesemi-arid region

• High frequency of moderate/severe droughts:1 severe or moderate drought / 12 years

• High yield losses during these events40 – 50% of losses in average, but achieving > 70% when very severe droughts occur

Northeastern Brazil has:

1555

1570

1585

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1615

1630

1645

1660

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1690

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1735

1750

1765

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1930

1945

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1975

1990

2005

Year

Dro

ught

inte

nsity



M

S

VS

Drought frequency in Northeastern Brazil

38 moderate to severe droughts in 447 years ⇒ ≈ 1 drought each 12 years

Considering only the last 100 years ⇒ ≈ 1 drought each 6 years

Adapted from Ministry of Environment



The intense drought of 1997-1998 (El Niño year) caused losses of:

77% ⇒ cowpea crop

77% ⇒ maize crop

42% ⇒ rice crop

92% ⇒ cotton crop

83% ⇒ cashew nut

±45% ⇒ cattle and other animals

Sou

rce:

Dua

rte (2

000)



Water balance for Crateus, CE, Brazil (1961-1990)

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Water balance for Bom Jesus do Piaui, PI, Brazil (1961-1990)

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Climatological WaterBalance for Normal Years in

NE Brazil

Period for crop production

Very short growing season



Climatological Water Balance for Petrolina, PE, Brazil in 1993

Total rainfall = 188 mm (Normal = 610 mm)

Total ETo = 2232 mm

Severe droughtWater Balance for Petrolina, PE, Brazil - 1993

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J F M A M J J A S O N D

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Water Deficiency Water Surplus



A proposal for ANADIA Pilot Project in Brazil

Drought Impacts on Cowpea (Vignaunguiculata) in Northeastern Brazil – A

Case Study for State of Piauí

Possible Brazilian Institutions involvedINMET - Brazilian Met-ServiceUSP - University of São Paulo

UNICAMP - State University of CampinasEMBRAPA - Brazilian Agricultural Research Center

CPTEC – Weather Forecast and Climatic Studies Center



Drought Impacts on Cowpea (Vignaunguiculata) in Northeastern Brazil – A

Case Study for State of Piauí

Main ObjectivesImprove the understanding of drought frequency and intensity

in the State of Piauí and their relationships with cowpea yield;

Reduce the impact of moderate – intense droughts on cowpea

production in State of Piauí;

Improve the stability of food offer to this region;

Give subsidize to improve water use efficiency in irrigated

cowpea crop



Why cowpea? It is the main crop at semi-arid region of Brazil.



Importance of cowpea crop for Northeastern Brazil

Main source of protein for people of this region of

the country

Cowpea crop represents 95 to 100% of the areas

cultivated with beans

Average yield: rainfed crop = 350 kg/ha

irrigated crop = 1500 kg/ha

Droughts can reduce rainfed yield for zero and

increase water required for irrigated crop, with

yield reduction where enough water is not available



Rainfall and climatic risk for cowpea crop in the State of PiauíAnnual Rainfall State

of Piauí, Brazil

Low

Med

ium

Hig

h



Fluxogram of the Structure of ANADIA Pilot Project for Brazil

ANADIA Pilot Project - Brazil

Drought Monitoring Drought ForecastImpact AssessmentEMBRAPA and USP

INMETEMBRAPA UNICAMP

INMET CPTEC

Sate

llite

Imag

es

Wat

ersu

pplie

s

Cro

pw

ater

requ

irem

ent

Cro

pyi

eld

depl

etio

n

Rainfall, ETo, climaticwater balance, drought

indeces

El Niño and La Niñaconditions

Drought Plan Evaluation

Mitigation ToolsRainfed crop Irrigated crop



ANADIA Pilot ProjectDrought Monitoring

State of Piauí Brazil

Monitoring – rainfall, referenceevapotranspiration, droughtindices and climatological waterbalance

Weather Stations (INMET) Weather Stations (EMBRAPA)



Drought Forecast

Climatic ForecastEl Niño/La Niña Monitoring



Impact Assessment on ...

... rainfed crops

... irrigated crops

• crop water balance• crop yield depletion by simulation models• greenness of ground cover by satellite images

• crop water requirement (crop ET)• water supplies• crop yield depletion by simulation models• greenness of ground cover by satellite images



Activities demanded for implementation of

ANADIA pilot project in NE Brazil

Drought Statistics: intensity, frequency, and spatial

variability

Education on drought(general population)

Interaction of science andpolicy

Publicity

Agrometeorological research: deficit irrigation, crop

zonning, climatic risk for cowpea, etc...



Thank you Grazie Merci

University of São Paulo / Piracicaba / Brazil

Danke Gracias Obrigado

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