monsanto 09-18-07

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1 HUGH GRANT CHAIRMAN, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER BANK OF AMERICA 37 TH ANNUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE September 18, 2007

Transcript of monsanto 09-18-07

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HUGH GRANTCHAIRMAN, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

BANK OF AMERICA 37TH ANNUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE

September 18, 2007

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Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent periodic report to the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.

TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2007 Monsanto Company

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Market Forces Are Changing Agricultural Production Trends Globally

OVERVIEW

Brazil exploits land availability advantage to become commodity soy producer to meet demand from China

Expanding ethanol and export demands favor U.S. as low-cost corn producer;

vegetable consumption continues to grow

U.S. ramps up production of corn; Soy crop becomes increasingly focused on higher-value segments over commodities

Argentina leverages geographic proximity to

supply corn to Latin America

Growing wealth and population in Asia creates new demand for imported grain and vegetables

Biggest increases in cotton acreage come in

Asia, with U.S. focused on quality and consistency of

supply

MACRO PRODUCTION TRENDS OVER THE NEXT DECADE: CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON, VEGETABLES

Biodiesel drives oilseed demand in Europe

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44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

CURRENT LEVEL

GROSS MARGIN ‘PULL’

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

GROSS MARGIN OPPORTUNITYGROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES MONSANTO’S OPPORTUNITY

Delta between 2006 gross margin and a 52-54% trajectory reflects continued growth opportunity for seeds and traits

FACTOR

U.S. corn

International corn

Global biotech traits

Cotton platform

Seminis

R&D pipeline

Monsanto Uniquely Positioned to Maximize Growth in Shifting Ag Market

OVERVIEW

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U.S. CORN

By Delivering Better Yielding Products, DEKALB Has More than Doubled Share in Six Years

U.S

. SH

AR

E

DEKALB U.S. CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: 2001-2007F

23-24%

19%16%14%13%

12%10%

2007 STATUS

• Share gain of 4-5 points expected for 2007 season

• Farmers continue to cite DEKALB’s superior yield as primary driver

• Continue to plan for 1-2 point share gains per year in DEKALB through end of decade

TRAIT CATEGORYMONSANTO

TRAIT OFFERING

2007 FORECAST TRAIT ACRES

CIRCA JUNE 2007

UPDATEDEND-OF-DECADE ACRE

OPPORTUNITYCIRCA 2007

(IN MILLIONS OF ACRES)

GLYPHOSATE-TOLERANT CORN

Roundup Ready Corn 2

YieldGardCorn Borer

YieldGardRootworm

117-120M 185-205M

55-56M 80M

CORN-BORER CONTROL 41-42M 60-70M

ROOTWORM CONTROL 21-22M 45-55M

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F

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PRODUCT CONCEPT

First-Ever Eight-Gene Stack Leapfrogs Competitive Products, Boosting Performance, Creating New Value for Farmers

SmartStaxAnatomy of first-ever eight-way gene platform

TRAIT STATUS

YieldGard VT Triple PRO Pending Regulatory Review

COMPONENTS

COMPONENTS

YieldGard VT Rootworm/RR22ND-GENERATION ROOTWORM CONTROL 1 Below-Ground Insect Control

PRIMARY: ROOTWORM Commercial

Roundup Ready 2 TechnologyVIA YIELDGARD VT ROOTWORM/RR2 1 Weed Control

MODE: GLYPHOSATE Commercial

Herculex XTRA

YieldGard VT PRO2ND-GENERATION YIELDGARD CORN

BORER 2 Above-Ground Insect ControlPRIMARY: CORN BORER

PHASE IVPending Regulatory Review

Commercial

Commercial

Commercial

• Application for EPA registration to be submitted

• On track for end-of-decade commercialization in U.S., with global roll-out following

Herculex I

Herculex RW

Liberty Link 1 Weed ControlMODE: GLUFOSINATE

SmartStaxIndustry-Standard Trait

Platform1

Multiple modes of action for above- and below-ground insect

and weed control

GENES FUNCTION

1Above-Ground Insect

ControlPRIMARY: CORN BORER

2Below-Ground Insect

ControlPRIMARY: ROOTWORM

SmartStax is in proof-of-concept testing, establishing:

Feasibility of full trait integrationViability of enhanced performance for insect and weed control

1. This product has not been registered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It is a violation of federal law to promote or sell an unregistered pesticide.

SMARTSTAX CORN PLANTED IN WESTERN IOWA, SHOWING FULL, HEALTHY EARS AND STRONG, HEALTHY ROOTS

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Expansion of Corn Market Share Sets Stage for Corn Traits Internationally

Global Biotech Traits

SITUATION:

• “Footprint” established by Monsanto’s corn market share growth globally establishes the base to launch traits as they earn regulatory approvals

OUTLOOK:

• Corn traits outside U.S. have significant opportunity for penetration

51%

13%

39%

40%

30%

SEED MARKET SHARE

OUTLOOKYIELDGARDROOTWORM

YIELDGARDCORN BORER

ROUNDUP READY CORN 2

15M

-

5M

-

5M

5M

• YGCB and RR are commercial on small acres, moving to stacks

• YGCB planting on small acres in 7 countries in 2007

• YGCB and RR received approvals for field trials

• YGCB/RR stacked product approved; potential FY2009 launch

• YGCB received initial regulatory approval

60-65M

6M

24M

6M

9M

15-20M

40-45MTotal

International Markets

4MSouth Africa

8MEurope(EU27)

6MIndia

7MArgentina

15-20MBrazil

INTERNATIONAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY: CORN1

3%BIOTECH ACRES PLANTED 2007

REMAINING AVAILABLE ACRES

16-18% 0%

INTERNATIONAL CORN

YGCB=YieldGard Corn BorerYGRW=YieldGard RootwormRR = Roundup Ready Corn 2

1. Market Opportunity reflects total acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily acres projected for penetration by 2010.

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KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA

AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 50-60M 35M

PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELDSOYBEANS

Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Signal Emerging Platform of New Stacked Soybean Products

GLOBAL BIOTECH TRAITS

R&D PipelineHIT Project ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD

SOYBEANSSITUATION:

• Value created through yield gains will be shared with farmer as has been Monsanto’s historical practice

• Roundup Ready2Yield will become preferred platform for host of new soybean traits for yield, quality and ease of farming

• To be stacked with insect traits protection for exclusive Latin American marketRETAIL VALUE/ACRE: >$10 - <$30/acre

2007 STATUS: Phase IV

• Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans have completed regulatory process in the United States and Canada

• Three years of field comparisons show a yield advantage of 7-to-11 percent compared with its first-generation Roundup Ready counterpart

VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:

P R O J E C T

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Cotton Breeding Is Today Where Corn Was In Late 1990s; Huge Opportunity to Bolster Yield Ahead

COTTON PLATFORM

COTTONTREND

Cotton must become more profitable for farmers –boosting yields is keyNEED

Boost yield returns per acre

SOLUTIONS

MOLECULAR BREEDING FOCUS IN PROCESS

U.S. (9)

Testing ProgramsBreeding Programs

Winter Nurseries

Costa Rica

Brazil

South Africa

India (3)

Greece

Australia

COTTON BREEDING STATUS: 2007

RESOURCES CAPABILITIES OUTLOOK

World’s largest private cotton breeding program

• ‘Jumpstart’ of up to 3 years over corn in 1990s because infrastructure is in place:

• Labs, IT and markers are ready to go; “Plug-and-Play” opportunity

• Largest marker collection in the world

Zeroing in on drought, fiber quality, lint yield and disease resistanceNew, novel targets: Diverse germplasm base can lead to genetic pairings that greatly benefit farmers

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Four Growth Drivers Enrich Seminis Gross Profit Contribution Through 2012

SEMINIS

SeminisSITUATION:

• In 2006, narrowed commercial and research focus to 25 crops that generate the most profit

• Began application of breeding technology, with a target of 1,000+ markers each for 9 crops by 2009

OUTLOOK:

• Through end of decade, Seminis grows through current offerings – via price and improved market share mix –and pipeline opportunity – with new product launches

SEMINIS GROWTH DRIVERS

Four growth drivers build on the strength of the existing business and begin to leverage the capability Monsanto brings to Seminis to generate growth through the end of the decade

PRICEIncrease price of existing portfolio and new products launched on basis of value created and shared with the grower

MARKET SHARE MIX

Increase share in higher value segments via shifts to protected culture and disease resistance products post 2010

NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES

Develop and launch products into high value segments with a focus on disease resistance, protected cultures and yield

PIPELINE ACCELERATION

Accelerate pipeline product launches through the use of new molecular breeding tools

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R&D PIPELINE

Pipeline Has Some Likely Blockbusters and Some Hidden Gems

ANNUAL R&D CYCLE: SEEDS & TRAITS BIOTECH TRAIT PIPELINESOYBEANS ARE EMERGING FROM CORN’S SHADOW

Roundup RReady2Yield creates platform for futureFirst product developed exclusively for an ex-US market will be in soybeansSoybeans could be a 3+ stack by middle of next decade

COTTON POTENTIAL TO BE UNLOCKED

Second-generation stacked products to accelerate globallyCotton could be a 3+ stack by middle of next decade

YIELD AND STRESS POTENTIAL EXPLODING

Drought tolerance in corn expected to be first of a rapid series of blockbuster traits

At a greater pace than ever before, new breeding tools are being applied across all platforms and resulting in breakthrough products

BREEDING PIPELINEBREEDING ENGINE FIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS

Q1 Q4

Q3Q2

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KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA EUROPE

AVAILABLE MARKET 90M 20-25M 10M

0%

24M

PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%Drought-tolerant corn

Family of Drought-Tolerant Corn Products to Create Differentiated Value Across Multiple Market Segments

IRRIGATED DRYLAND STABILITY

Irrigated Non-Irrigated Non-Irrigated

Value is in replacing irrigation, reducing variable costs of irrigation

Value is in improved yields annually, by improving water-use efficiency

Value is in improved yields when moisture is less than optimal

R & D PIPELINE

R&D PipelineHIT Project Drought-tolerant corn

SITUATION:

• Value of trait reflects better yields under moisture-stressed conditions; varies by region

• Value will be specific to variable costs of water use by farmers, not fixed costs of irrigation

• Corn needs 18-to-20 inches of moisture during the growing season

RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: $10 - $30/acreTOTAL ACRE

OPPORTUNITY: 144M-149M acres

2006 STATUS: Phase II• Lead events consistently delivered yield

improvements compared with controls in water stressed conditions, with yield advantage of up to 12 bushels per acre in Chilean locations

• Currently in fifth season of U.S. field testing; significant expansion in number of locations, test environments and germplasm backgrounds

VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:

P R O J E C T

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SEEDS & GENOMICSCAGR 2002-2006: 34%

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CAGR 2002-2006: (8)%

AN

NU

AL

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

($

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

SUMMARY

Fueled By Seeds-and-Traits Business Performance, Monsanto Has Created an Unparalleled Platform for Continued Growth

KEY INFLECTION POINT: IN 2003-2004, GROSS PROFIT FOR SEEDS & GENOMICS BUSINESS SEGMENT SURPASSED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

Between 2004 and 2006, much of the cash generated from working capital improvements was used to fund key acquisitions

CASH GENERATION AND USES

SOURCES OF CASHCUMULATIVE: 2004-2006

WORKING CAPITAL

NET INCOME

USES OF CASHCUMULATIVE: 2004-2006

ACQUISITIONS

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

TECHNOLOGY AND OTHER INVESTMENTS

$1.3B$1.2B $1.8B$860M

$270M

$3,000

$2,500

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$02002 2003 2004 2005 2006