monsanto 02-20-07

22
1 CARL CASALE EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, NORTH AMERICA COMMERCIAL MORGAN STANLEY, BASIC MATERIALS CONFERENCE FEBRUARY 20, 2007

Transcript of monsanto 02-20-07

Page 1: monsanto 02-20-07

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CARL CASALEEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, NORTH AMERICA COMMERCIAL

MORGAN STANLEY,BASIC MATERIALS CONFERENCE

FEBRUARY 20, 2007

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Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions, including Delta and Pine Land Company; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent periodic report to the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.

TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. Mavera™ is a trademark of Renessen. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2007 Monsanto Company

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Non-GAAP Financial Information

This presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of “free cash flow,” and earnings per share (EPS) on an ongoing basis. We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating activities and investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as on-going EPS, excludes certain after-tax items that we do not consider part of ongoing operations, which are identified in the reconciliation. ROC means net income (without the effect of certain items) exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the average of the beginning year and ending year net capital employed, as defined in the reconciliation. Our presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is intended to supplement investors’ understanding of our operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or comprehensive income (loss), as determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, which can be found at the end of this presentation.

FISCAL YEAR:References to year, or to fiscal year, are on a fiscal year basis and refer to the 12-month period ending August 31.

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Building From Established Platform, Monsanto Has a Window of Opportunity to Extend Our Leadership

OVERVIEW

R&D LEADERSHIP

SEED & TRAIT PLATFORM

SEEDS & TRAITSIn the 10 years since the introduction of

the first biotech trait, Monsanto has invested >$5B in seeds-and-traits R&D

TRAITSMonsanto developed and commercialized the first

broad-acre biotech traits; First to launch stacked

traits and second-generation traits

SEEDSGlobal germplasm library

unmatched in scale – with 36 integrated breeding

programs from 12 countries for corn and soy

and the world’s leading vegetable seed company

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEHigh-margin technology business that generates sustainable free cash flow

COMMERCIAL COORDINATIONRoundup, world’s best-selling herbicide brand, uniquely complements seed-and-trait platform

COMMERCIAL PLATFORMIntegrated platform with commonality of technology and commercial approach among crop platforms

BREEDING>100 breeding research

centers worldwide, underpinning companywide

focus around molecular breeding

CHANNELS TO MARKETIndustry’s only company to widely employ dual market approach of branded and licensed seed and trait sales

STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE

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Monsanto’s Success Is Rooted in Seeds and Traits, Creating Platform for Future Growth

OVERVIEW

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F

SEEDS & GENOMICSCAGR 2003-2006: 32%

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

CAGR 2003-2006: (3)%

Higher margins in the seed-and-trait business focus Monsanto’s opportunity on accelerating gross profit growth

FOCUS: SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT

The EPS performance of the overall business reflects the growth trajectory of the seeds-and-traits business, Monsanto’s leadership in the industry, and the commercial potential of our proven R&D pipeline

FOCUS: ONGOING EPS PERFORMANCE

AN

NU

AL

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

($

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

$1.04

$0.80$0.72

$1.31

$1.50-$1.57

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F11% GROWTH 30% GROWTH 26% GROWTH

2007 EPS GUIDANCE: 15-20% GROWTH

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OVERVIEW

“Rising Tide Lifts All Boats” Across Corn Industry, But Performance Will Still Determine Long-Term Winners

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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200680

90

100

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FOCUS: HISTORICAL U.S. PLANTED ACRES

Average swing of corn acres over the last decade is roughly 1 percent; Last significant acre swing occurred in mid-1980s

2007 could represent the largest acreage swing in decades because of the new dynamic of ethanol on top of the established export demand

WHEAT SOY CORN TOTAL PLANTED ACRES

AC

RE

S (

IN M

ILLI

ON

S)

TO

TA

L PLA

NT

ED

A

CR

ES

(IN M

ILLION

S)

CORN

SOY

WHEAT

TOTAL PLANTED ACRESOF CORN, WHEAT, SOY

With yield focus, stacks – and triples especially – are the trait package of choice

TRAIT AVAILABILITY

Ultimate yield potential is reflected in the core seed

GERMPLASM PERFORMANCE

Additive

Favors corn, but essentially indifferent as cotton acres are highly penetrated with higher-priced stacked traits

Favors corn, but a trade-off because of high Roundup Ready penetration

WHEAT OR OTHER

COTTON

SOYBEANS

Farmers want to maximize productivity in high-return environment – creating opportunity for seed companies who deliver total performance Key Factors:

Growth from performance

Additional acres provide a “rising tide” that benefits most ag companiesDepending on source of incremental acre, there can be a trade-off in profit opportunity. For example, within Monsanto that trade-off is:

Growth from additional acres

GROWTH AVENUES IN A STRONG CORN MARKET

COTTON

COTTON

Source: USDA, FAPRI and Monsanto estimates

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Farmers Buy Yield; Our Business Strategy Is Oriented Around Meeting That Customer Need

OVERVIEW

R&D APPROACH

FAR

M A

PP

RO

AC

H

=

X

SEED• Starting point of all

agriculture; farmers maximize genetics in seed for yield

• 60% of farmers select seed first, thendecide on biotech traits

TECHNOLOGY• Technology is used to

protect and maximize yield potential of seed

GENETIC POTENTIALInherent yield possible from the seed

YIELDFarmer’s Purchase

Decision = XPERCENT OF GENETIC

GAIN PRESERVEDAmount of yield potential

protected

• Germplasm library assembled from 36 programs in 12 countries

• >100 breeding research centers worldwide

• >2,000 genetic markers used by breeders for corn today

• 50% of breeding population comes from intra-company, inter-country crosses

• Molecular breeding improves genetic potential by 2X versus conventional breeding

GERMPLASM BREEDING

• Monsanto is only company to develop and commercialize complete above-ground, below-ground insect-control and weed-control traits

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First Decision Farmers Make Is Seed Germplasm; More and More Farmers Have Been Choosing Monsanto Seed

• In 2007, DEKALB and Asgrow brands expected to gain at the upper end of 1 - 2 share points

• ASI companies expected to gain up to 0.5 share points through organic growth

OUTLOOK:

• In 2006, Monsanto’s DEKALB and Asgrow brands grew by 3 market share points

• Over 5 years, comparable market share gain was 9 points

SITUATION:

U.S. Corn

In 2007, national brands expected to grow at upper end of 1 – 2 share points

U.S. CORN MARKET SHARE EVOLUTIONMONSANTO BRANDS AND LICENSEES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007F2006

In 2006, the addition of 1 market share point in a Monsanto national brand translated into an average incremental value of approximately $10M-$15M in gross profit opportunity for Monsanto for the seed alone

ACREAGE EXPANSION

ASGROW AND DEKALB BRANDS

AMERICAN SEEDS, INC. BRANDS

LICENSEES’ BRANDS

U.S. CORN

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2

U.S. Corn

• Gains in the 110-day market are most significant, both from a breeding perspective and a sales growth perspective

OUTLOOK:

• In 2006, yield data across all three channels and essentially across all maturity zones indicates a yield advantage over best-in-class competitors1

SITUATION:

U.S. CORN

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

95 100 105 110 115

2006-TO-2007 CHANGE IN ORDERS BY MATURITY ZONE IN EACH CHANNEL

NATIONAL BRANDS

REGIONAL BRANDS

LICENSED BRANDS

BU

SH

ELS

PE

R A

CR

E

2006 TESTING: YIELD DIFFERENCE VERSUS COMPETITIVE CHECKS BY CHANNEL1

RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)

110

Decreased ordersFlat ordersIncreased orders

Breeding Strength Translates to Commercial Growth Opportunity

2. In the 100 day maturity zone, ASI’sbushels per acre are statistically indifferent when compared to best competitive checks

1. For purposes of this testing, the competitive checks excluded any Monsanto or Monsanto licensed germplasm

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With Higher Demand for Stacks, the “Average” DEKALB Acre Now Contains More Than Two Traits

• In 2007, the trait intensity for DEKALB and Asgrow will surpass 2.0 for the first time – reflecting that the average corn acre now contains more than 2 biotech traits

• With an infusion of technology, ASI’s trait penetration levels are closing in on DEKALBand Asgrow

• In our DEKALB and Asgrow brands, our triple-stacks are sold out

OUTLOOK:

• With increased stacking, there is a positive mix effect across the portfolio

SITUATION:

U.S. Corn

20%

15%

7%

2006

TRIPLE STACKED PENETRATION

>35%

>30%

10 - 15%

2007F

STACKED PENETRATIONTRAIT PENETRATION

70 - 75%

65 - 70%

55 - 60%

2007F

69%

55%

43%

2006

90 - 95%

80 - 85%

60 - 65%

2007F

90%

75%

55%

2006

NATIONAL BRANDS

REGIONAL BRANDS

LICENSED BRANDS

U.S. CORN

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F

TRAIT PENETRATION TRENDSACROSS KEY COMMERCIAL CHANNELS

TR

AIT

IN

TE

SIT

Y I

ND

EX

(A

VE

RA

GE

NU

MB

ER

OF

TR

AIT

S P

ER

T

RA

IT A

CR

E)

DEKALB/ASGROW2007F TRAIT INTENSITY: > 2.0

2007F TOTAL MARKET TRAIT INTENSITY LESS BRANDED: 1.7

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0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED

6M

ARGENTINA

30M80MAVAILABLE MARKET

BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES

Drought-Tolerant CornP R O J E C T

VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:

PROJECT CONCEPT:

First-generation drought tolerance is targeted to minimize uncertainty in farming by buffering against the effects of water limitation, primarily in areas of annual water stress2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

$10 - $30/acreRETAIL VALUE/ACRE:

Drought-Tolerant Corn

2006 STATUS:

VALUE CATEGORIES:

Phase 2

• Farmers value water-use in “acre-inches of water” needed to support yield potential – farmers need 18-20 inches of moisture from natural or irrigated sources during growing season

• Value of trait is in better yields under moisture stressed conditions: Varies by region

R&D PipelineSEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS MARKETS: U.S. EXAMPLE

STABILITYWESTERN DRYLANDIRRIGATED

Value is in improved yields when moisture is less than optimal

Value is in improved yields annually, by improving water-use efficiency

Value is in replacing irrigation, reducing the variable costs of irrigation

Non-irrigatedNon-irrigatedIrrigated

17-19” typical precipitation in growing season

14-18” typical precipitation in growing season

14-18” typical precipitation in growing season

50-60M acres10-12M acres8-12M acres

High annual precipitation

Low annual precipitation

Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University

U.S. CORN

Multi-Generational Drought-Tolerant Corn Creates Value Across Multiple Market Segments

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0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED

24M

EUROPE

30M80MAVAILABLE MARKET

BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES

Nitrogen Utilization Corn Change the Dynamics of Corn Production for Farmers

U.S. CORN

PROJECT CONCEPT:

Targets ways that corn plants can use nitrogen more efficiently, exploring the potential to boost yield under normal nitrogen conditions or stabilize yield in low nitrogen environments2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

$10 - $30/acreRETAIL VALUE/ACRE:

Nitrogen Utilization Corn

2006 STATUS:

VALUE CATEGORIES:

Phase 1

• Second year proof-of-concept testing confirmed 2005 lead genes across multiple locations and nitrogen rates and added new gene candidates for further testing

R&D Pipeline

KE

Y R

ES

ULT

S

2006 TESTING: 2006 FIELD RESULTS CONFIRM CONTINUED PERFORMANCE OF LEADS IDENTIFIED IN 2005

Nitrogen Utilization Corn

Reading right to left, what scientists will look for to establish proof of concept is when nitrogen application is decreased, the total yield per acre remains stable. In 2006 data, the 2 events show no yield drop off as the nitrogen application levels decrease from 180 lbs/ac to 40 lbs/ac

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EVENT 1

EVENT 2

CONTROL

LEAD NITROGEN UTILIZATION GENE(ACROSS 3 LOCATIONS: ILLINOIS AND IOWA)

YIE

LD P

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AC

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Reduction in Applied Nitrogen

40 80 180

NITROGEN INPUT: LBS/ACRE

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Renessen Corn Processing System May Rebalance Ethanol Energy Equation

U.S. CORN

#2 YELLOW CORN ELEVATOR HAMMER MILL FERMENTATION DISTILLATION ETHANOL

FRACTIONATION

HIGH OIL FRACTION

OILEXTRACTION

HIGHLY FERMENTABLE

FRACTION

CORN OIL FOR FOOD OR

BIODIESEL

HIGH-VALUE SWINE AND

POULTRY FEED

HIGH-PROTEIN, LOW-OIL DDG

DRYING

RENESSEN FRACTIONATION AND EXTRACTION PROCESS

Bolts on to existing ethanol plantsCreates 4 additional value streams

VALUE STREAMS

RENESSEN PROCESS STEPS

CONVENTIONAL ETHANOL PROCESS

RENESSEN OPPORTUNITY

As more plants come on line following the ramp-up phase, ethanol plant profitability will revolve around efficiency and value streams created. Renessen’s process provides a bolt-on addition that makes ethanol plants more efficient and more profitable.

PLATFORM CONCEPT:

Renessen’s technology seeks to utilize the components of corn more effectively to generate higher value products2007 UPDATE:

Renessen Corn Processing Technology

• Pilot plant construction complete

• Integrated fractionation and extraction testing to begin by the end of February

• High value feed trials to begin with swine in March; testing to continue throughout year

• High value DDG trials for cattle to take place during year

R&D Pipeline

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Growth in Demand for Feed, Food and Fuel Will Create New Specialty Opportunities for Soybeans in U.S.

Source: USDA, FAPRI and Monsanto estimates

U.S. SOYBEANS

U.S. VERSUS SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PLANTED ACREAGE

SOUTH AMERICAN PLANTED ACRES

U.S. PLANTED ACRES

• Domestic demand for feed, food and fuel products will remain strong creating opportunity for specialty markets in the U.S

• With acres trending lower, productivity is key and will be highly dependent on technology and germplasm

OUTLOOK:

• U.S. soybean acreage is trending flat to down because of favorable corn economics

• South American soybean acreage is expected to grow to support increasing global demand for protein especially from China

SITUATION:

U.S. Soybeans

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

U.S. PLANTED ACRES

SOUTH AMERICAN PLANTED ACRES

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Soybean Breeding

Molecular Breeding Increasing Performance Benefit in Soybeans Versus Competitors

PLATFORM CONCEPT:

Monsanto is using the most advanced tools of genomics, molecular markers and IT resources to more efficiently select for the best base germplasm for soybeans2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

Soybean Breeding

• Yield data from 2006 indicates continued yield advantage for national brands versus best-in-class competitors

R&D Pipeline

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60 COMPETITORS

ASGROW / DEKALB

BU

SH

ELS

/AC

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SOYBEAN BREEDING: 2006 U.S. COMPETITIVE SOYBEAN YIELD

RELATIVE MATURITIES

3 51 0 2 4

U.S. SOYBEANS

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0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED

35M

ARGENTINA

60M70MAVAILABLE MARKET

BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES

Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Advance to Phase 4, Beginning Pre-Launch Activities

Roundup RReady2YieldSoybeansP R O J E C T

VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:

PROJECT CONCEPT:

Second-generation of Monsanto’s popular herbicide-tolerant platform in soybeans that will provide farmers with soybeans that have enhanced yield, with a target of up to 5 bushel-per-acre yield increase over comparable Roundup Ready soybeans

2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

$10 - $30/acreRETAIL VALUE/ACRE:

Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans

2006 STATUS:

VALUE CATEGORIES:

Phase 4

• Value is additive with target of up to 5 bushel-per-acre yield improvement over comparable Roundup Ready soybeans

R&D Pipeline

KE

Y R

ES

ULT

S

2006 TESTING: RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF ROUNDUP READY AND ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD EXPERIMENTAL LINES

2006 breeding trials compared Roundup RReady2Yieldexperimental lines with Roundup Ready experimental lines that were in the same stage of development. The Roundup RReady2Yield lines averaged 3 to 5 bushels per acre higher than Roundup Ready experimental lines – shifting the entire yield curve positively and providing further validation for the product concept target of up to a 5 bushel-per-acre yield increase

YIELD DIFFERENCE (BU/AC)

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

ROUNDUP READYEXPERIMENTAL

LINES

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELDEXPERIMENTAL LINES

PE

RC

EN

T O

F P

OP

ULA

TIO

N

50

40

30

20

10

U.S. SOYBEANS

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0%PERCENT PENETRATED

12-15M

U.S.

AVAILABLE MARKET

KEY MARKET ACRES

Vistive III Soybeans Continue To Meet or Exceed Commercial Targets

P R O J E C T

VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:

PROJECT CONCEPT:

Combining both breeding and biotechnology, Vistive III is designed to lower linolenic and saturate content while boosting oleic content for a profile similar to olive oil2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:

$10 - $30/acreRETAIL VALUE/ACRE:

Vistive III Soybeans

2006 STATUS:

VALUE CATEGORIES:

Phase 2

• Approximately 40M acres of U.S. soybean crop is crushed for oil; Vistive III is optimal for Non-hydrogenated and Hydrogenated-Frying segments (see table at right)

• Vistive III has replacement value; To be priced at a premium to conventional soybean oil

• Market opportunity assumes competition from other sources for different needs of different food applications

R&D Pipeline

Vistive III Soybeans

U.S. SOYBEANS

IMPROVING THE NUTRITIONAL PROFILE OF SOYBEAN OIL

LINOLENIC18:3

LINOLEIC18:2

OLEIC18:1

SATS18:0 / 16:0

Major market segments for U.S. soybean oilHYDROGENATED-

BAKINGHYDROGENATED-

FRYINGNON-

HYDROGENATED

Uses 25% of total crushing (~10M acres)

Uses 25% of total crushing (~10M acres)

Uses 50% of total crushing (~20M acres)

For various baking applications

For various frying applications

For salad oils, household use

Source: Soyatech, USDA

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Profitability in Cotton Favors Farmers Who Adopt Best Technologies

Source: University Studies, USDA and Monsanto estimates

U.S. COTTON

• Monsanto’s second generation traits including Bollgard II and Roundup Ready Flex should help cotton farmers improve profitability

OUTLOOK:

• Growers will grow the most profitable crops

SITUATION:

U.S. Cotton

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

COTTON CORN SOY WHEATCOSTRETAIL VALUE

DO

LLA

RS

/ A

CR

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GROWER PROFITABILITYESTIMATE BASED ON 2006 YIELDS AND INPUT COSTS AND 2007

COMMODITY PRICES

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Upgrade to Second-Generation Cotton Traits Flourishes, Highlighted by 2007 Roundup Ready Flex Growth

U.S. COTTON

PENETRATION RATE OF SECOND-GENERATION TRAITSPENETRATION TREND OF COTTON TRAITS AS

A PERCENT OF ANNUAL PLANTED ACRES1

1. Percent of annual planted acres reflects the ratio of number of actual trait acres planted to total planted acres in the identified year for the specified geography

Bollgard II

Roundup Ready Flex

Bollgard II

Roundup Ready Flex

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

2007 FORECAST

2006 RESULTS

Even on potentially lower total planted acres, Roundup Ready Flex penetration rate should double in 2007 to >25% of total cotton crop

ROUNDUP READY FLEX

• Transition to second-generation traits continues in 2007

• Roundup Ready Flex was planted on ~14% of planted acres in 2005 – that should double in 2007

OUTLOOK:

• Cotton trait platform is the first to move forward on complete replacement of first-generation traits with second-generation upgrades

• Roundup Ready Flex cotton launched in the U.S. in 2006; Launched in Australia for FY2007 planting

SITUATION:

U.S. Cotton

25-30%

25-30%

17%

14%

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Upgrade to Double-Double Stacks in Cotton Significantly Enhances Value Versus Seed Alone

U.S. COTTON

• From the base of a single trait, move to second-generation stack – ‘double-double’ – can increase retail value by 50 percent

OUTLOOK:

• Cotton trait platform is first to move forward on complete replacement of first-generation traits with second-generation upgrades

• Roundup Ready Flex cotton launched in the U.S. in 2006; Launched in Australia for FY2007 planting

SITUATION:

U.S. Cotton

INCREASED U.S. COTTON TRAIT RETAIL VALUEEXAMPLE: VALUE PROGRESSION OF COTTON TRAITS

IN NORTH DELTA REGION OF U.S.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

SEED ONLY FIRST-GEN SINGLE FIRST-GENSTACKED

DOUBLE-DOUBLE

Each trait in a stacked combination adds functionality and value for the farmer. Second-generation stacks further enhance that added performance

ADDITIVE VALUE IN STACKS

1.001.17

1.50T

RA

IT R

ET

AIL

VA

LUE

PE

R A

CR

E(I

ND

EX

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)

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All Six Growth Drivers Are On Track in 2007, Setting Stage for Continued Growth Through End of Decade

SUMMARY

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

CURRENT LEVEL

GROSS MARGIN ‘PULL’

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F• Emphasis on “HIT” projectsR&D pipeline

• Achieve 10-12.5 cents EPS contributionSeminis

• Complete Delta & Pine Land acquisition

• Continue penetration of second-generation stacked traits in U.S.

Cotton platform

• Achieve 2.5-5 cents EPS for Roundup Ready soybeans in Brazil

Global biotech traits

• Grow market share in key international market

International corn

• Drive trait penetration, especially triple-stacks

• Seed market share growth in U.S. national and ASI brands

U.S. corn

FY2007 PRIORITIESFACTOR

MONSANTO’S OPPORTUNITY

FOCUS: GROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES

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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow

N/AEffect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash and Cash Equivalents

N/A

N/A

$875 - $950

(500)

$1,375 - $1,450

Fiscal Year2007

Target

Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Financing Activities

Free Cash Flow

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Investing Activities

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Operations

$ Millions