MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS

SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS

Wout Ultee

Radboud University Nijmegen

Presentation at the Observatoire Sociologique du Changement, Sciences-Po, Paris

June 15 2007

WHAT ?!SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS ?!

THE UMPTEENTH

TECHNIQUE OF DATA ANALYSIS ?!

YES, BUT A TECHNIQUE

TO ANSWER QUESTIONS WHICH ARE

BETTER THAN QUESTIONS OF

OLDER GENERATIONS

A SUCCESSION OF FOUR TECHNIQUES OF DATA ANALYSIS IN SOCIAL MOBILITY

RESEARCH :LIPSET GENERATION PERCENTAGES

DUNCAN GENERATION PATH MODELS

GOLDTHORPE GENERATION LOGLINEAR MODELS

MAYER GENERATION EVENT HISTORY MODELS

THESE TECHNIQUES ARE APPLICABLE IN HETEROGAMY RESEARCH TOO

QUESTIONS OF THE LIPSET GENERATION :* IF A PERSON HAS MORE EDUCATION THAN

ANOTHER PERSON , IS THIS PERSON MORE LIKELY TO MOVE UP ?

* IF PERSONS HAVE MORE EDUCATION THAN THEIR PARENTS , ARE THEY MORE LIKELY TO BE

UPWARDLY MOBILE ?

* HOW MUCH OF TOTAL MOBILITY IS STRUCTURAL MOBILITY AND HOW MUCH CIRCULATION MOBILITY ?

ACCORDING TO LATER GENERATIONS , THESE QUESTIONS ARE POOR OR

MEANINGLESS

STYLIZED LIPSET GENERATION FACTS :

FOR RAMDOM SAMPLES TAKEN FROM A COUNTRY’S POPULATION

THE CORRELATION OF EDUCATION WITH UPWARD AND DOWNWARD MOBILITY IS

DISAPPOINTINGLY LOW

AND SO IS THE CORRELATION OF

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S YEARS OF EDUCATION WITH

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE

DUNCAN GENERATION :

QUESTIONS ABOUT MOBILITY AS ONE VARIABLE AND ABOUT DIFFERENCE SCORES IN GENERAL

POSE THE ISSUE POORLY

THESE QUESTIONS UNWITTINGLY INVOLVE FLOOR AND CEILING EFFECTS

AND THEREFORE REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MEAN IS BEING ‘DISCOVERED’

QUESTIONS SHOULD NOT BE ABOUT DIFFERENCE SCORES

BUT ABOUT THEIR COMPONENTS

THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE DUNCAN GENERATION :

TO WHAT EXTENT DOES A PERSON’S OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE DEPEND NOT ONLY UPON THIS PERSON’S EDUCATION ,

BUT ALSO UPON THE EDUCATION AND OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE OF THIS

PERSON’S FATHER ?

TECHNIQUE TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS : PATH MODELS

GOLDTHORPE GENERATION :

IF THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN STRUCTURAL AND CIRCULATION MOBILITY HAS ANY MEANING ,

IT HAS SO AT THE MACRO LEVEL ONLY

NO SOUND ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN FOUND TO GIVE MEANING TO THE

EQUATION

TOTAL MOBILITY =

STRUCTURAL MOBILITY + CIRCULATION MOBILITY

THE RIGHT QUESTIONS ACCORDING TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION :

HOW HIGH ARE ABSOLUTE MOBILITY RATES ?

HOW HIGH ARE RELATIVE MOBILITY CHANCES ? HOW STRONG IS SOCIAL FLUIDITY AND HOW UNEQUAL ARE

COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES ?

HOW LARGE ARE MARGINAL DIFFERENCES ? HOW UNBALANCED IS THE COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE ?

AND TO WHAT EXTENT ARE COUNTRY DIFFERENCES IN ABSOLUTE MOBILITY

EXPLAINED BY DIFFERENCES IN RELATIVE MOBILITY CHANCES COMPARED WITH

DIFFERENCES IN COMPETITIVE STRUCTURES ?

THE RIGHT EQUATION ACCORDING TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION :

COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES

PLUS COMPETITIVE STRUCTURES

RESULT IN

ABSOLUTE MOBILITY

QUESTIONS ABOUT COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES ARE ANSWERED BY

LOGLINEAR MODELS

MAYER GENERATION :QUESTIONS LIKE

HOW MUCH SOCIAL FLUIDITY IS THERE IN THE U.K. IN 1972 ?

ARE TOO VAGUE

FLUIDITY REFERS TO THE MOVEMENT OF PERSONS

BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME

THIS SHOWS THAT THE REFERENCE TO 1972 IS

INCOMPLETE

MAYER GENERATION :QUESTIONS LIKE

IS THERE MORE SOCIAL FLUIDITY IN THE U.K. IN 2000 THAN IN 1980 ?

ARE ALMOST SUPERFLUOUS

QUESTIONS SHOULD NOT BE ABOUT OVERLAPPING POPULATIONS

BUT ABOUT SUCCESSIVE COHORTS

THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE MAYER GENERATION :

ARE FOR SUCCESSIVE COHORTS

THE CHANCES FOR MOVING UP OR DOWN IN SOME ALWAYS EQUALLY LONG TIME SPAN

NOT ONLY DEPENDENT UPON INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS LIKE AGE AND EDUCATION

BUT ALSO UPON COHORT AND PERIOD CHARACTERISTICS ?

THESE QUESTIONS ARE TO BE ANSWERED WITH EVENT HISTORY

MODELS

IN THE BEGINNING :THE APPLICATION OF MODELS THAT DID NOT

TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CONTEXTUAL NATURE OF PART OF THE ORGINALLY INDIVIDUAL DATA

CONTEXTUAL : THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT THE MOMENT OF A POSSIBLE JOB SHIFT

CONTEXTUAL : JOB STRUCTURE AT THE END OF COMPULSORY SCHOOLING

NOWADAYS : APPLY MULTI-LEVEL EVENT HISTORY

MODELS

ARE MAYER GENERATION QUESTIONS FLAWLESS ?

MAYER QUESTIONS EXPLAIN DIFFERENCE SCORES !

IT IS TRUE THAT IF THE START SCORE FOR OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE IS INCLUDED AS A

PREDICTOR IN EVENT HISTORY MODELS ,

ESTIMATES OF PARAMETERS FOR OTHER EFFECTS DO NOT DIFFER FROM THOSE

MODELLING END SCORES

BUT STILL , WHY EXPLAIN DIFFERENCE SCORES RATHER THAN END SCORES ?

FIFTH GENERATION QUESTIONS ? THE MAYER GENERATION COLLECTED

OCCUPATIONAL HISTORIES , BUT MODELLED SINGLE EVENTS

FIFTH GENERATION QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT CAREERS

IS AN OCCUPATIONAL CAREER A SELF-REINFORCING UPWARD PROCESS ?

WILL A PERSON WHO ONCE MOVED DOWN BE PERMANENTLY SCARRED ?

MERTON’S MATTHEW EFFECTS GO BEYOND BECK, RISK SOCIETY , BAUMAN , LIFE IN FRAGMENTS , SENNETT’S BOOKS

MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE NOT ABOUT MOBILITY

BUT ABOUT CONDITIONS THAT CAUSE PERSONS TO

ATTAIN

HIGHER AND LOWER CLASSES OR BETTER AND

WORSE JOBS

HOW ABOUT QUESTIONS ON THE EFFECTS OF MOBILITY ?

ARE THERE FALSE QUESTIONS ABOUT EFFECTS OF MOBILITY ?

ARE THERE GENERATIONS OF QUESTIONS ON MOBILITY EFFECTS AND HETEROGAMY

EFFECTS ?

YES ,

AND THERE ARE NICE PARALLELS

LIPSET GENERATION PERCENTAGES OF PHENOMENON X FOR CLIMBERS, STAYERS, AND SKIDDERS

DUNCAN GENERATION LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH INTERACTION TERMS

SOBEL GENERATION NON - LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

AGAIN :

TECHNIQUES NO GOALS IN THEMSELVES

NEW TECHNIQUES ANSWER BETTER QUESTIONS

THREE GENERATIONS IN RESEARCH ON MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS

LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH INTERACTION TERMS ARE

MATHEMATICALLY EQUIVALENT TO NON - LINEAR REGRESSION

MODELS

BUT IN THE DUNCAN GENERATION INTERACTION PARAMETERS ARE

DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET

WHEREAS IN THE SOBEL GENERATION PARAMETERS STAND

FOR INTERESTING SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESES

EFFECTS OF MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY ON WHAT ?

VOTING

MARITAL FERTILITY

DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR

FEMALE LABOUR MARKET PARTICIPATION

VISITING A MUSEUM , CONCERT HALL , THEATER

OTHER CULTURAL ACTIVITIES LIKE READING BOOKS

THE LIPSET GENERATION QUESTION :

ARE CLIMBERS MORE LIKELY THAN STAYERS TO VOTE FOR

THE RIGHT

AND SKIDDERS FOR THE LEFT ?

LIPSET GENERATION RESULTS WERE MIXED

THIS LED TO A POLISHING OF FINDINGS

NEXT TO MOBILITY ,

CLASS OF ORIGIN OR CLASS OF DESTINATION WAS INTRODUCED

AS A CONTROL

THIS COMPOUNDED THE DIFFICULTIES

FLOOR AND CEILING EFFECTS BECAME EASY TO SPOT

LIPSET’S TABLE FOR THE USA IN 1948PERCENT VOTING REPUBLICAN AFTER OWN

CLASS AND CLASS OF ORIGIN

MANUAL NON-MANUAL

ORIGIN MANUAL 20 70

NON-MANUAL 40 60

70 IS MORE THAN 60 : UPWARDLY MOBILE PERSONS OVER-CONFORM

LIPSET COMPARES AN OFF-DIAGONAL WITH A MAIN-DIAGONAL PERCENTAGE

DUNCAN , WHEN EXPLAINING MARITAL FERTILITY , HELD LIPSET GENERATION QUESTIONS TO BE

PREMATURE

THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE DUNCAN GENERATION IS :

AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT

EFFECTS OF PRESENT OCCUPATION AND EFFECTS OF ORIGIN ,

ARE THERE EFFECTS OF MOBILITY AS SUCH ?

DUNCAN ANSWERED THIS QUESTION

WITH LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

INCLUDING

ON TOP OF MAIN EFFECTS

INTERACTION EFFECTS

THE SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION :

WHAT DO PERSONS WEIGH MORE HEAVILY IN

CHOOSING BETWEEN ACTIVITIES

THEIR ORIGIN OR THEIR DESTINATION?

THEIR OWN GROUP OR THAT OF THEIR PARTNER?

SOBEL HOLDS THAT DUNCAN GENERATION QUESTIONS ARE

IMPRECISE :THEY PERTAIN TO INTERACTIONS , WITHOUT SPECIFYING IN ADVANCE

THE TYPE OF INTERACTION

SOBEL REJECTS LIPSET GENERATION QUESTIONS

THEY POOL ALL STAYERS

WHEREAS QUESTIONS ABOUT CONFORMITY TO THE NORMS IN A

PERSON’S DESTINATION GROUP AND ABOUT REJECTION OF NORMS IN A

PERSON’S ORIGIN GROUP

IMPLY A COMPARISON OF CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS WITH TWO SPECIFIC

TYPES OF STAYERS

PERCENT OF WOMEN VOTING LABOUR AFTER OWN CLASS AND CLASS HUSBAND IN BRITAIN

1974 – 1987 ACCORDING TO HEATH & DE GRAAF 1992 OWN

HIGH 2 3 4 LOW TOTAL

HUSBAND HIGH 8 23 14 41 48 20 2 27 32 26 0 22 31 3 33 8 18 25 48 26 4 35 27 57 65 69 61 LOW 46 44 45 77 68 60

TOTAL 20 28 33 60 65 43

DUNCAN READS THIS TABLE FROM THE TWO MARGINALS AND FINDS INDEPENDENT EFFECTS OF

OWN CLASS AND PARTNER’S CLASS

SOBEL BEGINS WITH MAIN DIAGONAL PERCENTGAES AND ASKS WHETHER OFF DIAGONAL PERCENTAGES

ARE IN BETWEEN

DUNCAN’S MARGINAL REFERENCE MODELS

VERSUS

SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS

SOBEL’S MOST SIMPLE MODEL :

WHATEVER TWO DIAGONAL CELLS ARE CHOSEN

A PERSON ALWAYS WEIGHS OWN CLASS - OR ORIGIN - WITH THE SAME WEIGHT AND CLASS PARTNER - OR DESTINATION - WITH ANOTHER

SOME WEIGHT

WITH BOTH WEIGHTS ADDING UP TO ONE

SOME OLDER ANSWERS TO SOBEL GENERATION QUESTIONS ABOUT MOBILITY

AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS

IN BRITAIN , FOR FEMALE VOTING THE CLASS OF THE HUSBAND CARRIES MORE WEIGHT THAN THE CLASS

OF THE WIFE IS FOR MALE VOTING

WITH RESPECT TO FATHER - SON MOBILITY FOR THE NETHERLANDS IT WAS FOUND THAT FATHER’S

CLASS CARRIED MORE WEIGHT THAN OWN CLASS

ONE VARIATION ON SOBEL GENERATION QUESTIONS :

PEOPLE ARE QUICK TO ADAPT TO THE NORMS OF THEIR DESTINATION GROUP -

IF THEY MOVE UP

BUT ARE THEY LESS LIKELY TO ADMIT TO THEMSELVES THAT THEY MOVED DOWN ?

ASSIGN WEIGHTS FOR ABOVE MAIN DIAGONAL CELLS WHICH ARE DIFFERENT

FROM WEIGHTS FOR BELOW MAIN DIAGONAL CELLS

ANOTHER VARIATION ON SOBEL GENERATION

QUESTIONS :OVER - CONFORMITY CAN BE MODELLED BY INCLUDING A

SPECIAL PARAMETER FOR THE CELLS WHERE OVER -

CONFORMITY IS PREDICTED

AFTER USA 1948

NO NEW STRONG CASES OF OVER - CONFORMITY IN VORING

HAVE BEEN FOUND

A SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION :

IS THE DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR

LEAST UNEQUAL WHEN BOTH PARTNERS HAVE THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ,

MOST UNEQUAL WHEN THEY BOTH HAVE THE LOWEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ?

AND DO MIXED COUPLES FALL IN BETWEEN ,

OR ARE THERE ‘MACHO MAN’ EFFECTS ?

TABLES FROM VAN BERKEL’S PH.D.

WHO DOMINATES WHEN ?

USING THE FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION 1993

FEMALE SHARE IN DOING THE DIRTY LAUNDRY AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993

MAN

LOW MIDDLE HIGH TOTAL

WOMAN LOW 90 89 93 90

MIDDLE 88 87 87 87

HIGH 85 79 80 80

TOTAL 85 87 85 87

HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN DO LESS THAN LOWLY EDUCATED MEN

OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN

WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO DOING THE DIRTY LAUNDRY

FEMALE SHARE IN CLEANING AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993

MAN

LOW MIDDLE HIGH TOTAL

WOMAN LOW 84 83 88 84

MIDDLE 79 79 80 79

HIGH 84 72 70 72

TOTAL 83 80 77 81

HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN DO LESS THAN LOWLY EDUCATED MEN OF

LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN

WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO CLEANING

FEMALE SHARE IN COOKING AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993

MAN

LOW MIDDLE HIGH TOTAL

WOMAN LOW 74 73 73 74

MIDDLE 70 69 69 69

HIGH 70 66 63 64

TOTAL 73 71 67 71

WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO COOKING

IN DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS THE WEIGHT FOR WOMEN’S EDUCATION IS ONE

THERE ARE SPECIAL EFFECTS

NOTE THAT THE MEASURES FOR THE DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD

LABOUR REFER TO A COMPOSITE SCORE

IS THIS FIRST GENERATION ERROR OK HERE ?

ONLY IF THE NUMBER OF TIMES AN ACTIVITY IS PERFORMED DOES NOT DIFFER MUCH BETWEEN COUPLES !

ANOTHER SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION :

IS HAVING A PAID JOB FOR WOMEN WITH A PARTNER

MOST LIKELY WHEN BOTH HAVE THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ,

LEAST LIKELY WHEN BOTH HAVE THE LOWEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ,

AND IN BETWEEN FOR MIXED COUPLES ?

PERCENT OF WOMEN WITH A PAID JOB DUTCH LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

PARTNER’S EDUCATION

HIGH 2 3 LOW TOTAL

OWN HIGH 79 83 85 83 80

EDUCATION 2 63 72 67 64 68

3 44 49 47 41 47

LOW 28 37 35 27 32

TOTAL 68 63 55 41 60

FOR WOMEN WITH THE HIGHEST EDUCATION ,

HAVING A PARTNER WITH THE HIGHEST EDUCATION

IS A DISINCENTIVE TO A PAID JOB

THE FINAL SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION :

WHEN EXPLAING HIGH CULTURE ACTIVITIES , WHAT WEIGHS HEAVIER ?

RULE OF THUMB FOR THE NETHERLANDS FROM DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS

A PERSON’S OWN EDUCATION WEIGHS FOR ONE HALF

PARTNER’S EDUCATION FOR ONE THIRD

FATHER’S EDUCATION FOR ONE SIXTH

THE 3 - 2 - 1 RULE

COMBINING THE FIRST SERIES OF MACRO QUESTIONS WITH THE SECOND SERIES OF MICRO QUESTIONS

INTO AN NEW MACRO QUESTION :

IS IT ABSOLUTE MOBILITY , SOCIAL FLUIDITY , OR THE COMPETITIVE BALANCE

THAT TIPS ELECTORAL OUTCOMES ?

BACK TO SOMBART :

WHY NO SOCIALIST PARTY IN THE USA ?

BECAUSE OF HIGH SOCIAL MOBILITY !

BUT WHAT KIND OF SOCIAL MOBILITY ?!

IF ALL VOTERS WEIGH CURRENT AND PAST ECONOMIC INTERESTS ,

THEN A MORE FAVOURABLE COMPETITIVE BALANCE MAKES FOR A HIGHER

PERCENTAGE OF RIGHT - WING VOTES

IF ALL VOTERS WEIGH CURRENT AND PAST STATUS MOTIVES ,

THEN A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF ABSOLUTE MOBILITY - WHETHER UPWARD

OR DOWNWARD - MAKES FOR A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF RIGHT - WING VOTES

DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS ONE

DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS ONE ORIGIN WEIGHT SKIDDERS ONE

DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS 0,8

DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS 0,8 ORIGIN WEIGHT SKIDDERS 0,8

FROM ELECTORAL OUTCOMES TO OVERALL BOOK READING AS THE MACRO

PHENOMENON TO BE EXPLAINED

A COMPARISON OF EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES ?

DOES BOOK READING DECLINE?

AND TO WHAT EXTEND DOES IT DO SO

BECAUSE OF MORE SOCIAL MOBILITY

AND MORE MIXED MARRIAGES?

SEE DE GRAAF & ULTEE

ELECTORAL STUDIES 1990

SEE EQUALSOC WEBSITE

FOR DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS

SEE SOBEL

AMERICAL SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW

1981 AND 1985