EUROPEANISATION

AND

SECULARISATION

WOUT ULTEE

RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN

PRESENTATION AT THE COLLOQUIUM OF THE CENTRE FOR GLOBALISATION AND GOVERNANCE

UNIVERSITÄT HAMBURG, JANUARY 17, 2007

AS THE WEBSITE OF THE CGG SAYS:

GLOBALISATION AND GOVERNANCE ARE CONTESTED CONCEPTS

BUT: CONCEPTS ARE UNIMPORTANT

PERTINENT ARE PROPOSITIONS

AND THE PROPOSITION THAT

GLOBALISATION WEAKENS EXISTING FORMS OF GOVERNANCE

IS A WORTHWHILE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

Although that hypothesis needs elaboration and some findings speak against it

THE INITIAL QUESTION:

WHERE IS THE WORLD GOING?

THE ANSWER:

THE WORLD IS GLOBALISING!

THIS INITIAL DIAGNOSIS IS NOT BAD.

BUT:

GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?

HOW STRONG IS THE TREND?

AN UNCONDITIONAL TREND?!

HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?

PRODUCTION FACILITIES ARES BEING SHIFTED FROM THE HYPERINDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

TO WHICH COUNTRIES?

THE DUTCH CORPORATION PHILIPS IS SHIFTING ITS LIGHTING DIVISION

NOT TO AFRICA BELOW THE SAHARA

NOR TO SOUTH-EAST ASIA

BUT TO EASTERN EUROPE

AND THIS SHORT SHIFT IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL

HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?

THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PLACE WHERE GOODS ARE PRODUCED AND GOODS ARE CONSUMED IS GETTING

LARGER

BUT THERE ARE LIMITS:

THE BORDERS OF THE

ENLARGED EUROPEAN UNION

HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?

THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PLACE WHERE CAPITAL IS OWNED AND THE PLACE

WHERE IT IS EMPLOYED IS GETTING LARGER

BUT:

DO NOT OVERDO THE DEVALUATION OF THE BRITISH POUND AND THE THAI BAHT

EVEN GIVEN CONTEMPORARY WEAK STANDARDS

CURRENCY TRADERS MAY HAVE COMMITTED WHITE COLLAR CRIMES

HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?

THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PLACE WHERE PEOPLE WERE BORN AND THE PLACE WHERE

THEY NOW WORK IS GETTING LARGER

BUT

THERE ARE LAWS MAKING LABOR MOBILITY ILLEGAL, EVEN WITHIN THE ENLARGED

EUROPEAN UNION

U.S. CORPORATIONS ARE RENT-SEEKING ON FOREIGN STATES BY PLEADING FOR LEGAL

ENTRY OF HIGHLY QUALIFIED LABOR

HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?

THE PART OF THE WORLD ABOUT WHICH PEOPLE HAVE KNOWLEDGE IS GETTING

LARGER

BUT WESTERN TEENAGERS ARE USING THE INTERNET TO CHAT WITH THEIR SCHOOL

FRIENDS

AND WESTERN ADULTS ARE GOING ON HOLIDAY TO FAR-AWAY PLACES BECAUSE

THEY ARE CERTAIN OF SUN THERE

SUMMING UP

THE TREND TOWARDS GLOBALISATION IS MORE OF A

TREND TOWARDS EUROPEANISATION

AND WILL STOP AT THE BORDERS OF THE ENLARGED EUROPEAN

UNION

IN EASTERN EUROPE THERE IS CHEAP AND QUALIFIED LABOR

ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALWAYS ENDOWED WITH A WORK ETHIC

THE GLOBALISATION PROPOSITION HAS BEEN TAKEN

TO PERTAIN TO AN UNCONDITIONAL TREND

YET ITS SUPPOSED CAUSE HAS BEEN STATED

ALL KINDS OF FORMAL BARRIERS ARE BEING ELIMINATED

MARKETS ARE BECOMING MORE FREE

GIVEN THIS CONDITION FOR A TREND

THE DIAGNOSIS THAT THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD IS

GLOBALISING

IS SO-SO

FIRST REASON WHY THE WHOLE WORLD AND WILL NOT BECOME ONE FREE MARKET

AFTER WORLD WAR 2 AND WITH DECOLONISATION THE INDUSTRIAL

COUNTRIES ALLOWED FREE IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS ONLY

SINCE 1975 THEY HAVE LOWERED TARIFFS ON FINISHED GOODS

BUT THERE STILL IS NO WORLD WIDE FREE TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

WHEREAS AGRICULTURE IS WORLD WIDE THE MOST IMPORTANT SECTOR OF

EMPLOYMENT

SECOND REASON WHY THE WHOLE WORLD IS NOT AND WILL NOT BECOME ONE FREE

MARKET

AFTER WORLD WAR 2 AND WITH DECOLONISATION THE INDUSTRIAL

COUNTRIES BECAME DEPENDENT ON OIL AND THESE COUNTRIES HAVE TO IMPORT OIL

SINCE 1973 THE OPEC COUNTRIES HAVE FORMED A CARTEL

FOSSILE ENERGY WILL REMAIN THE LINCHPIN OF ANY INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY IN THE COMING

DECADES

THIRD REASON WHY THE WHOLE WORLD IS NOT AND WILL NOT BECOME ONE FREE

MARKET

THE CORPORATIONS DOMINATING CURRENT HYPERINDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES DEPEND UPON

PATENTS FOR ALL KINDS OF INNOVATIONS

THESE PATENTS LAST SO LONG THAT THESE CORPORATIONS HAVE BECOME QUASI-

MONOPOLIES

THE PERIOD COVERED BY PATENTS WILL NOT BE GETTING SHORTER

AND PATENTS NOWADAYS ARE MORE OFTEN ENFORCED

FOURTH REASON WHY THE WHOLE WORLD IS NOT AND WILL NOT BECOME ONE FREE

MARKET

AND NOT EVEN THE INITIAL EUROPEAN UNION WILL BECOME SO

THE COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD ARE MOVING FROM AGRICULTURAL SOCIETIES BY WAY OF

INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES TO HYPERINDUSTRIAL OR SERVICES SOCIETIES

AND EVEN AND PARTICULARLY IN SERVICES SOCIETIES LANGUAGE DIFFERENCES ARE STRONG BARRIERS AGAINST LABOR AND

HOUSEHOLD MOBILITY

EFFECTS OF GLOBALISATION AND EUROPEANISATION ON

GOVERNANCE

– GOVERNANCE OF WHAT?

THE DEBATE CENTERS ON THE ABILITIES OF CURRENT STATES TO LESSEN INCOME

INEQUALITIES

BEFORE PLAYING OFF

THE THESIS THAT FREE MARKETS BENEFIT EVERYONE

AGAINST THE THESIS THAT FREE MARKETS INCREASE

INEQUALITIES

IT IS WISE TO DETERMINE WHAT EXACTLY THESE THESES

SAY AND WHAT EARLIER THESES SAID

THE THESIS THAT FREE MARKETS BENEFIT

EVERYONE DOES NOT PREDICT SMALLER

INEQUALITIES

SINCE THE RICH MAY BENEFIT MORE THAN

THE REST

THE DEBATE BETWEEN THE PRO-GLOBALISTS

AND THE ANTI-GLOBALISTS

IS A REPRISE OF THE DEBATE AROUND 1900 WITHIN THE GERMAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC

PARTY ON THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTING

CAPITALIST PRODUCTION RELATIONS

BERNSTEIN 1899

THE SHIFT FROM UNSKILLED TO SKILLED AND HIGHLY SKILLED WORK MAKES FOR HIGHER WAGES IN

EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

LUXEMBURG 1912

WAGES ARE RISING BUT NOT FOR THAT REASON, HIGHER WAGES ARE PAID OUT OT PROFITS MADE IN

COLONIES, WHERE WAGES ARE GOING DOWN

REVISIONIST RETORT

ORTHODOX MARXISTS THINK THAT MARKETS ONLY CAN BECOME LARGER BY COLONIALISM

RISING STANDARDS OF LIVING IN A COUNTRY AMOUNT TO AN INTERNAL ENLARGEMENT OF MARKETS

STERNBERG 1926

PROFITS FROM BRITISH COLONIES ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR WAGE RISES IN BRITAIN

GERMANY HAS HARDLY ANY COLONIES AND WAGES HAVE BEEN RISING THERE TOO

WALLERSTEIN 1973

COLONIALISM MAY HAVE COLLAPSED BUT ECONOMIC DEPENDENCIES STILL ARE IN PLACE

AND ABSOLUTE POVERTY RISES IN THE THIRD WORLD

KLEIN 2000

NOW INCOME INEQUALITIES ARE RISING IN THE FIRST WORLD TOO

HOW USEFUL IS EMPIRICAL

RESEARCH GIVEN THIS THEORETICAL

QUAGMIRE?

IT IS WISE TO DEVISE HYPOTHESES ABOUT

EFFECTS OF SPECIFIC FORMS OF

GOVERNANCE

ON SPECIFIC FORMS OF INCOME INEQUALITY

BUT FIRST FIREBAUGH’S PARADOX

EVEN IF INCOME INEQUALITIES AS MEASURED BY GINI’S AND INCOME SHARES

IN EVERY COUNTRY OF THE WORLD IS RISING

IT STILL MAY BE THE CASE THAT WORLD INCOME INEQUALITY DROPS

WITH WORLD INCOME INEQUALITY DETERMINED IN THE SAME WAY BUT BY TAKING WORLD POPULATION RATHER THAN COUNTRY POPULATIONS AS THE

UNIT OF ANALYSIS

ACCORDING TO FIREBAUGH

THIS POSSIBILITY RIGHT NOW IS A FACT

WORLD INCOME INEQUALITY

EQUALS

INEQUALITY WITHIN COUNTRIES

PLUS

INEQUALITY BETWEEN COUNTRIES

AND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD POPULOUS CHINA AND INDIA WITH BELOW WORLD AVERAGE INCOME HAVE HAD A STRONGER RISE IN AVERAGE INCOME

MY OWN HYPOTHESIS

THIS PARADOX RIGHT NOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE ENLARGED

EUROPEAN UNION

EUROSTAT HAS BEEN MISLEADING ABOUT THIS POSSIBLE PARADOX

EUROPEAN UNION INCOME INEQUALITY IS NOT (A WEIGHTED BY POPULATION) AVERAGE OF

GINI’S FOR ALL EU-COUNTRIES

EUROPEAN UNION

INCOME INEQUALITY IS NOT AN

AVERAGE OF INCOME

QUINTILE SHARE

RATIO’S FOR EACH

MEMBER STATE OF

THE EUROPEAN

UNION

HERE IS

A COMPARATIVE RESEARCH PROJECT

TO BE FUNDED WITH EU MONEY

OR ESF MONEY

FIRST SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS

IF IN SOME COUNTRY LEGAL MINIMUM WAGES ARE LOWER THAN IN ANOTHER COUNTRY

UPON ECONOMIC UNIFICATION

IN THE COUNTRY WITH THE HIGHEST LEGAL MINIMUM WAGES

MINIMUM WAGES WILL BE GOING DOWN

SECOND SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS

IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION THERE WILL BE A

CONVERGENCE OF SOCIAL SECURITY SCHEMES TOWARDS A LOW POINT

THIS CONVERGENCE TAKES A FORM RESEMBLING THE DEVALUATION OF

CURRENCIES IN THE 1930S

IF ONE COUNTRY LOWERS SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS OTHER COUNTRIES WILL FOLLOW

WITH THE BEGINNER IN THE END LOWERING BENEFITS AGAIN

THE UNITED KINDGOM STARTED A BEGGAR-MY- NEIGHBOUR ROUND UNDER THATCHER

AND THE NETHERLANDS FOLLOWED SUIT UNDER LUBBERS

BECAUSE FRANCE AND GERMANY DID NOT JOIN IN

DUTCH UNEMPLOYMENT GOT FROM A EUROPEAN HIGH TO A EUROPEAN LOW

KORPI & PALME SHOWED THAT IN PERIODS OF SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE,

SOCIAL SECURITY CUTS WERE LOWER

THIRD SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS

IN COUNTRIES DIFFERING IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH INDIVIDUAL INCOME

TAXES ARE PROGRESSIVE

UPON ECONOMIC UNIFICATION

THE COUNTRY WITH THE HIGHEST PROGRESSION

LOWERS TAXES FOR THE INDIVIDUALS WITH THE HIGHEST INCOMES

FOURTH SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS

IF IN SOME COUNTRY CORPORATE TAXES ARE LOWER THAN IN ANOTHER COUNTRY

UPON ECONOMIC UNIFICATION

IN THE COUNTRY WITH THE HIGHEST CORPORATE TAXES

CORPORATE TAXES WILL BE GOING DOWN

HEILBRONER

SOCIETIES HAVE THREE INSTITUTIONS TO COORDINATE HUMAN ACTION

MARKETS

STATES

COMMUNITIES

BLOSSFELD – MILLS HYPOTHESIS ABOUT THE RELATION BETWEEN MARKETS AND

COMMUNITIES

GLOBALISATION MAKES IN HYPERINDUSTRIAL STATES FOR JOB PRECARITY

AND JOB PRECARITY MAKES FOR COHABITION OR MARRIAGE AT A LATER AGE

FOR COHABITATION RATHER THAN MARRIAGE

AND FOR POSTPONEMENT OF CHILD BIRTH AND A SMALLER NUMBER OF CHILDREN

MY ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS TAKES CHANGES

IN NUCLEAR FAMILY FORMATION

AS INFLUENCED TOO AND MORE STRONGLY

BY THE DECLINE OF RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES IN HYPERINDUSTRIAL STATES

THE MORE SECULARIZATION IN HYPERINDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES

THE MORE OPPOSITE-SEX BONDING WILL TAKE THE FORM OF COHABITATION RATHER THAN MARRIAGE

NOT ONLY AMONG IRRELIGIOUS PERSONS

BUT ALSO AMONG CHURCH MEMBERS AND CHURCH VISITORS

WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS FOR CHILD-BEARING

ADDITIONALLY, THE MORE SAME-SEX BONDING WILL TAKE PLACE

AND THE MORE LIKELY SAME-SEX MARRIAGES WILL BE ALLOWED

BUT SECULARIZATION HAS MORE EFFECTS

SINCE GALLIE & PAUGAM

JOB PRECARITY IS HAVING A TEMPORARY CONTRACT OR

WORKING PART-TIME

YET IS SOME COUNTRIES

PERSONS IN PART-TIME JOBS HAVE FIXED CONTRACTS

WITH PROTECTION EQUAL TO FULL-TIME WORKING PERSONS

IF THE VARIOUS CHRISTIAN RELIGIONS OF THE WEST HELD THAT A MAN SHOULD

PROVIDE MONEY FOR HIS FAMILY AND A WOMAN SHOULD KEEP THE HOUSE AND

TAKE CARE OF THE CHILDREN

THEN SECULARISATION EMBODIES AN EQULAITY NORM

MAKING THAT WOMEN ENTER THE LABOR FORCE

NOT NECESSARILY FOR FULL-TIME JOBS

AND FOR MEN WITH PART-TIME JOBS TO SHARE WITH THEIR PARTNER THE CARE

OF CHILDREN

SO MY HYPOTHESIS IS THAT WORKING PART-TIME FOR WOMEN IS AN EARLY CONSEQUENCE OF SECULARISATION

AND WORKING PART-TIME FOR MEN A LATER CONSEQUENCE OF

SECULARISATION

THE RISE OF PART-TIME JOBS IN HYPERINDUSTRIAL STATES DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH PRECARITY

AND GLOBALISATION

TO ARRIVE AT A RICHER ANSWER TO THE QUESTION WHERE EUROPE IS

GOING

NOT ONLY MORE BONDING BETWEEN

SOCIAL ECONOMISTS AND POLITICAL SOCIOLOGISTS

BUT ALSO BETWEEN THESE SOCIAL SCIENTISTS

AND SOCIOLOGISTS OF RELIGION

I HAVE POSTED THIS PRESENTATION ON MY WEB SITE

TYPE IN GOOGLE THE TWO WORDS

WOUT ULTEE

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